GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 777 (All Lucky 7s Edition!)

UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/12/2010 12:57:49 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2aVkFk9nOw

As well as some special love for red sox 777 in this topiX!



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/12/2010 12:58:34 PM | message detail
Thanks Ulti!

Crono > Link let's do this.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
voltch | Posted 1/12/2010 12:58:58 PM | message detail
ITT we all gonna be hitting the jackpot.
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Shakes Fist!
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/12/2010 1:12:23 PM | message detail
I don't recall topic #4 ever being dedicated to me!
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
GunMage | Posted 1/12/2010 1:35:28 PM | message detail
Jackpot!
HaRRicH | Posted 1/12/2010 7:08:25 PM | message detail
Just deleted my topic -- overlooked this one, whoops.

And when we ditch numbers and get to Part HRRH, I expect accolades!
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/12/2010 7:41:44 PM | message detail
I don't recall topic #4 ever being dedicated to me!

Were you actually around on this board back when topic #4 was made?
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/12/2010 7:44:29 PM | message detail
Topic 4 was SC2K3 Part 3, so it didn't actually have "part 4" in the title.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
RPGuy96 | Posted 1/12/2010 7:56:54 PM | message detail
I call topic 96!

...Hey, it's not up on NGamer's site! What's up with that, TRE? Hmph, I'll try 86...

From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 10/24/2004 12:00:31 AM | Message Detail
Vincent, easily. There's no way he's a low as KOS-MOS.


Hm. If 96 has Vincent debates I don't want it anymore.

From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 10/24/2004 12:21:15 AM | Message Detail
I don't think anybody would argue that Vincent is on the level of Mario, but you'll probably see estimates from 40% on up. Simply put, he's not worth wasting in an 8/9 or 7/10 match. Make him the low seed in a 4 pack and have him work to get to the Sweet 16.


What the hell, I was totally against Vincent, I think someone stole my account and time traveled or something. And was Vincent or Kerrigan the low seed?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/12/2010 8:15:40 PM | message detail
Kerrigan was the 4 and Vincent was the 5.

From: -LusterSoldier- | #007
I don't recall topic #4 ever being dedicated to me!

Were you actually around on this board back when topic #4 was made?


I've been here since 2003, so the only topic I haven't been around for was the very first one in 2002.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
HeroicYoshi | Posted 1/12/2010 8:18:09 PM | message detail
Wait, so I have only 43 more topics then. Whoop!
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 1/12/2010 8:54:30 PM | message detail
Not sure if this has been discussed yet, so I offer this to you guys. What are your thoughts on a Bowser > Sora upset?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/12/2010 8:56:57 PM | message detail

From: Masato_Tanaka | #012
Not sure if this has been discussed yet, so I offer this to you guys. What are your thoughts on a Bowser > Sora upset?


Not betting on it, personally. Bowser's been on the decline in recent years.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/12/2010 8:57:05 PM | message detail
With a second game Crono must be twice as strong because 1 + 1 = 2 and two is twice as much as one. Crono for championship. This logic is flawless.

Just you wait until Crono gets a real second game!
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
HaRRicH | Posted 1/12/2010 8:57:29 PM | message detail
Not sure you want to be on the same page as a guy who picked Alyx Vance > Lara Croft!

I had that match in mind when I said it, haha.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/12/2010 8:58:00 PM | message detail
Better dedicate Part 6000 to me.
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Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380
Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/12/2010 8:59:51 PM | message detail
ready for some dragon age domination
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:00:46 PM | message detail
Anti-MW2 board vote?
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Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:00:51 PM | message detail
where did dragon age get a board vote from
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Lolicon Fanboyism
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:00:56 PM | message detail
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 21.79% 17
Dragon Age: Origins 41.03% 32
Uncharted 2: Among Thieves 37.18% 29


what
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:00:58 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 21.33% 16
Dragon Age: Origins 42.67% 32
Uncharted 2: Among Thieves 36% 27
TOTAL VOTES 75

Dragon Age domination indeed!
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
paulg235 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:01:04 PM | message detail
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 17.39%
8
Dragon Age: Origins 36.96%
17
Uncharted 2: Among Thieves 45.65%
21
TOTAL VOTES 46

What a colapse from MW.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/12/2010 9:01:11 PM | message detail
what the dragon age

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:01:15 PM | message detail
woah all 3 games tied at 75 votes for a second
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Lolicon Fanboyism
Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/12/2010 9:01:59 PM | message detail
The only thing that I've heard when it comes to Bowser/Sora is how well they did against Crono & Mega Man.

Crono > Mega Man and I'm on the side believing that Crono might've overperformed just a tad bit against Bowser.

And oh, look at U2 failing to dominate Dragon Age.

The Boss > Drake.

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GT: TriggerTRE
When life gives you lemons you get some tequila!
Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:02:08 PM | message detail
i think we're in for a good match today, boys.
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Lolicon Fanboyism
charmander6000 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:02:12 PM | message detail
where did dragon age get a board vote from

When nobody liked MW2 and Uncharted 2.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:03:47 PM | message detail
So, if Dragon Age still does its usual rise after the board vote........epic 3-way battle for Game of the Year?
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
SonicRaptor | Posted 1/12/2010 9:03:58 PM | message detail
One thing I've noticed from MW2 for a while is there is a sliver of CoD's fanbase that collectively backlash against the game. You'd be hard-pressed to find a single reason from them for why (I have a friend who hasn't been able to really tell me why he hates the game aside from "the weapons don't feel right."). I think it's mostly hype backlash myself, it's a solid game and should get more respect in the coming year.

They all agree Captain John Price is a badass and I cannot disagree with fact.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:04:14 PM | message detail
Also lol at yesterday's poll failing to out vote the multiplatform poll.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:05:24 PM | message detail
Also holy vote totals.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:05:27 PM | message detail
come on Unchaaaaarted

come on
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For your health.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:06:00 PM | message detail
At the freeze: Uncharted 2 is 1 vote behind Modern Warfare 2. Dragon Age holding on to 30%.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
HaRRicH | Posted 1/12/2010 9:06:18 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3726&region=PH

Dissidia's a hoss.


If this action today keeps up (it didn't yesterday, but who knows), B:AA may have a claim for GotY.
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Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:06:34 PM | message detail
This may be a better goty poll then last year...

And hmm. What if Uncharted 2/MW2 finish super close? think we'll get a final final vote like last year?
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Lolicon Fanboyism
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/12/2010 9:08:33 PM | message detail
If Dragon Age does this, I will poo golden bricks.

It would also mean THE GOD DAMN BATMAN can be kinda sorta considered the strongest game of the year.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/12/2010 9:09:01 PM | message detail
Damn you Harr.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:09:46 PM | message detail
remember, dragon age was at like 12.3% or so at the freeze yesterday, and ended up 4% higher.
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Lolicon Fanboyism
red sox 777 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:10:29 PM | message detail
Half expecting Dragon Age to collapse next update here, but man, it only got 36.59% on MW2 yesterday. If it somehow turns around that margin.....just wow.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
charmander6000 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:10:48 PM | message detail
Dragon Age also didn't get the board vote yesterday.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:11:23 PM | message detail
Well, it didn't collapse- actually went up.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
HaRRicH | Posted 1/12/2010 9:11:43 PM | message detail
If MW2 wins this poll, there's no need for a FINAL-GotY like last year...but it probably won't come to that, either. If MW2 is beaten though, that could mean we miss the GotD-poll for certain, don't have a contest-poll, or see the contest delayed.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/12/2010 9:11:49 PM | message detail
Bah, looks like it may not go on its patented upswing today. I think GameFAQs is trying to rebel against MW2 but haven't really played or cared about the two other games in the poll. This is unquestionably the weakest GotY finals we've ever had.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
charmander6000 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:12:01 PM | message detail
Half expecting Dragon Age to collapse next update here, but man, it only got 36.59% on MW2 yesterday. If it somehow turns around that margin.....just wow.

It's more proof that GotY polls don't show true game strength let alone character strength.
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Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/12/2010 9:12:04 PM | message detail
game of the year polls are officially weird as hell
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/12/2010 9:12:43 PM | message detail
LOL Boss

There's been like, 4 polls now clearly foretelling this "upset".
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/12/2010 9:12:55 PM | message detail
Well, if I can't have topic 4, I'll take topic 44 and 444! What gems will I find within?

Oh man, part 44 is Hayabusa/Jill!

Oh hey, we were debating Hayabusa/Chief even back then! Heck, we were debating Hayabusa/Luigi! Poor Weegi.

Huh, someone proposed a 128 character contest with 2 matches per day back in 2004!

I'm getting nostalgic seeing some old users who don't post here anymore!
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/12/2010 9:13:01 PM | message detail
This proves that having more than 2 in a poll screws everything up.

4-way battle data will be the bain of your bracket's existence! KING KOOPA WILL RULE AGAIN!


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GT: TriggerTRE
When life gives you lemons you get some tequila!
charmander6000 | Posted 1/12/2010 9:13:06 PM | message detail
Bah, looks like it may not go on its patented upswing today. I think GameFAQs is trying to rebel against MW2 but haven't really played or cared about the two other games in the poll. This is unquestionably the weakest GotY finals we've ever had.

2k5 had RE4, God of War and Mario Kart DS.
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/12/2010 9:14:10 PM | message detail
GTA: San Andreas was a huge game back then... how come CJ couldn't beat Ness?

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GT: TriggerTRE
When life gives you lemons you get some tequila!