GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 775

charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 1:39:16 PM | message detail
Wait scratch that Europe doesn't care for Castlevania either.

Why are they night characters again?
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/10/2010 1:39:35 PM | message detail
Just to be clear, I wouldn't be shocked if either guy won, I just personally think Magus has disappointed more in the past few years than Alucard.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 1:41:17 PM | message detail
Same here, but I just don't want anyone blaming the 12 hour poll for one of the character's loss.
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voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 1:42:13 PM | message detail
People will find anything to excuse a loss, isn't that right...UIGI!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/10/2010 2:04:51 PM | message detail
Who would you take between Frog and Alucard? Who's stronger between Frog and Magus?
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 2:09:56 PM | message detail
Magus > Frog > Alucard

Master Chief (through Sub-Zero) did better on Auron than Alucard in 2006. Alucard doesn't have a reason to boost since then.
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voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 2:11:43 PM | message detail
wasn't Sotn in that chronicles game?
heck is the game on PSN over in the US?
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LOLContests | Posted 1/10/2010 2:13:27 PM | message detail
FACT OR FICTION: A 12 hour poll will break 70,000 votes
FACT OR FICTION: A 12 hour poll will break 80,000 votes
FACT OR FICTION: A 12 hour poll will break 90,000 votes.
FACT OR FICTION: A 12 hour poll will break 100,000 votes.
FACT OR FICTION: 2 12 hour polls combined will break 160,000 votes.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/10/2010 2:13:47 PM | message detail
Sotn is one of the top 3 best selling arcade games on 360. And likely sold well on PSN as well.

It has reason to boost.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 2:16:04 PM | message detail
lol arcade and PSN games, most of their popularity come from previous fans.

FACT: A 12 hour poll will break 70,000 votes
FACT: A 12 hour poll will break 80,000 votes
FACT: A 12 hour poll will break 90,000 votes. (Near the end)
FICTION: A 12 hour poll will break 100,000 votes.
FACT: 2 12 hour polls combined will break 160,000 votes. (Near the end)

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LOLContests | Posted 1/10/2010 2:18:54 PM | message detail
Oh man, I didn't realize that the Quarterfinals were 12 hour matches too. Come on Bacon. Those should be 24 hours too. I guess change my last one to:

FACT OR FICTION: 2 12 hour polls combined will break 180,000 votes.

and

FACT OR FICTION: No match gets below 50,000 votes.
FACT OR FICTION: No more than 3 matches get below 50,000 votes.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/10/2010 2:20:26 PM | message detail
Master Chief (through Sub-Zero) did better on Auron than Alucard in 2006. Alucard doesn't have a reason to boost since then.

I thought MC boosted between those years?
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/10/2010 2:21:01 PM | message detail
Day matches will start when most people are in school or work.

Assuming the contest isn't delayed for 1 or 2 days, then Alucard/Magus occurs on a school day. The board vote of a day match could differ a bit from the board vote of a night match. Magus would have dominated the board vote in a night match, but with the match starting in the day, it could possibly make Magus's board vote weaker than usual.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/10/2010 2:22:46 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #106
Magus > Frog > Alucard

Master Chief (through Sub-Zero) did better on Auron than Alucard in 2006. Alucard doesn't have a reason to boost since then.


What does Master Chief have to do with this? Are we assuming Frog still beats Master Chief or something?
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/10/2010 2:26:18 PM | message detail
Anyone else believes that 12 hours is somewhat beneficial to joke characters as well?
Jokes tend to start off strong, so they can probably ride off an early start and just keep hanging in there.


12-hour matches would benefit the joke characters, at least for night matches. Night matches strike me as the type of match that joke characters would perform stronger at. Also considering the fact night matches are probably going to get less votes than the day matches, making comebacks more difficult with less votes to work with.

I don't think as many people are going to vote in both polls as some of you seem to think.

Kleenex brings up a good point. You need to remember that around 65% of the site doesn't even fill out a bracket. The CBVIII introduction page is the only page that talks about the 12-hour matches and the starting times for the night and day matches. So you'd have to think that maybe around half of the site (maybe slightly more or less) won't even be aware that there are 2 matches per day.

I already tried sending in feedback to Bacon asking him to mention the 2 matches per day on the homepage under the "Today on GameFAQs" section. He hasn't looked at it yet and I sent that in on Monday morning.
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voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 2:34:03 PM | message detail
if MC's power has decreased so much, a rematch with frog would probably end up being close again.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/10/2010 2:35:07 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/10/2010 2:35:26 PM | message detail
Twelve hour polls might favor joke characters, but the 1v1 format will hurt them far more.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/10/2010 2:35:45 PM | message detail
Well, I personally don't think Sub-Zero and Frog have a close match. Scorpion whipped Frog with little effort back in 2007, and Sub-Zero > Scorpion by a decent amount.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 2:36:04 PM | message detail
What does Master Chief have to do with this? Are we assuming Frog still beats Master Chief or something?

Halo 3 wasn't out yet.
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/10/2010 2:37:24 PM | message detail
I'm with yo on this until joke-characters prove they can thrive in this format.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/10/2010 2:38:34 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #120
What does Master Chief have to do with this? Are we assuming Frog still beats Master Chief or something?

Halo 3 wasn't out yet.


Even back in 2006, I'm not sure Frog wins that. Frog only got 30% on Samus, and MC got 37-38% on Crono that same year. Halo 2 had come out by then, right?
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voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 2:38:47 PM | message detail
seriously though L-Block losing to HK looks very likely.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/10/2010 2:39:13 PM | message detail

From: voltch | #123
seriously though L-Block losing to HK looks very likely.


I'm not so sure about that.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 2:40:46 PM | message detail
Even back in 2006, I'm not sure Frog wins that. Frog only got 30% on Samus, and MC got 37-38% on Crono that same year. Halo 2 had come out by then, right?

Maybe you're right. The 2k5 x-stats has Master Chief beating Frog quite a bit. Also I forgot that Halo 2 came out after the contest.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 2:41:26 PM | message detail
seriously though L-Block losing to HK looks very likely.

Hey, that's my upset!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/10/2010 2:41:26 PM | message detail
Although I guess you could argue 2007 Alucard = 2004 Frog since they both had matches with Liquid that were settled by less than 100 votes. Of course, that depends on what you think of Liquid's difference in strength between those three years.

And then you have to figure out what in the world happened to Liquid in round 2 when Alucard killed him.
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voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 2:41:59 PM | message detail
why not? HK is decent and jokes getting over half the votes is something we've never seen before, 25% is easy for them 4 ways, but 50 in 2 ways is something which will be harder, though i do see the bigger jokes getting strong early leads.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/10/2010 2:43:08 PM | message detail
I'd love to take HK in that match, but he's not a broad enough character for me to risk it. I still might for the hell of it, but I'll have to twist HK's statistics pretty unnaturally, and droids parts aren't very bendy.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/10/2010 2:43:10 PM | message detail
seriously though L-Block losing to HK looks very likely.

Quick facts:

HK-47 got 26.84% against Crono in 2007.
L-Block got 46.37% against Crono in 2008 when they first met up.

That's a very huge amount of ground for HK-47 to make up here, which I don't see happening at all.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 2:44:04 PM | message detail
Still L-Block was able to get 41% on Kirby in what was pretty close to a 1v1 match (Laharl & Nathan Hale)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/10/2010 2:44:07 PM | message detail
Well, I just don't think HK-47 is known enough to beat L-Block. L-Block will rack up the indifferent votes because those people won't have a clue who HK-47 is. He's just not well known enough.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/10/2010 2:45:27 PM | message detail
Also, L-Block has seen two contests now (and several matches in each). He'll probably get votes from people who simply recognize him as a returning character in addition to his joke appeal. I still don't think block will amount to much at all, but he got a lucky draw.
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voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 2:46:48 PM | message detail
man playing some FFX and it's a shame Lulu hasn't made a contest yet.
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 1/10/2010 2:47:50 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #101
Wait scratch that Europe doesn't care for Castlevania either.

Why are they night characters again?


Alucard's a vampire, and Magus leads a race of monsters upon a dark, dreary castle on a remote continent. What kind of happy-go-lucky daywalker would want to vote for those depressing characters?

And we're doing the HK-47 upset again? L-Block will have legitimate strength, people are underestimating the fact that he actual strength with his joke persona and a loyal fanbase who'll still stick with him 1v1, and though he won't ever match 2007 levels ever again, the character who beat Ryu in Round 1 last year shouldn't have any trouble with HK-47 even 1v1. L-Block will smoke him, breeze by whoever in Round 2, then pull a decent loss against Kratos.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/10/2010 2:47:55 PM | message detail
Using stats alone, it's not possible to turn HK-47 into a contender. You'll have to bank on the 1v1 format absolutely destroying L-Block, which is possible, but also risky given his weak, niche opponent.
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voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 2:49:04 PM | message detail
using stats alone, was Knuckles>Magus possible?
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 2:51:03 PM | message detail
What does everyone think of the other jokes, WCC, GlaDOS and Missingno?

I think both Cube and GlaDOS will struggle against Drake/Boss and Fawful while Missingno fails to break 25% on Crono.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/10/2010 2:51:25 PM | message detail
...risks pay off sometimes?
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 1/10/2010 2:52:53 PM | message detail
Hey, maybe that could be my crazy upset pick. Pick L-Block to go to Mario! Then I could get burned again when L-Block loses as expected to Kratos!

Or maybe I should just pick Mario to win the entire bracket or Sephiroth > Cloud or something ridiculous like that.
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Master Moltar | Posted 1/10/2010 2:53:25 PM | message detail
Crew Guest sign-up topic for the first two divisions is up

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=53021996
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 2:54:35 PM | message detail
using stats alone, was Knuckles>Magus possible?

No.

I remember it because I tried to find a way for that to happen. The only explaination is if you believed Magus wasn't SFF by Crono in 2004 or using another SFF character.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/10/2010 2:54:35 PM | message detail
I've got WCC losing to The Boss. Boss fanboyism aside, I'm hoping enough of the voters will recognize and favor her over a character like Cube. WCC will probably have an easier time with Drake, though; I doubt his fans are all that loyal. I also have GlaDOS because I've already seen her do well in one match, while Fawful is way too niche a Mario character. You put Goomba or Koopa Troopa there, and I take them without question.

Is GlaDOS even a joke character, though?
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/10/2010 2:55:29 PM | message detail
What does everyone think of the other jokes, WCC, GlaDOS and Missingno?

WCC will have no problem disposing of Sandal in the first round. Sandal simply hasn't had much time to build up a fanbase of his own and these days, newcomers to the contests have a high potential to flop and act like fodder in contests. Even more so when you are from an entirely new franchise. Depending on how well Dragon Age: Origins does in the GotY poll, it might convince some people to reconsider picking Sandal to beat WCC in the first round.
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 1/10/2010 2:55:41 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #138
What does everyone think of the other jokes, WCC, GlaDOS and Missingno?

I think both Cube and GlaDOS will struggle against Drake/Boss and Fawful while Missingno fails to break 25% on Crono.


Cube's set for Round 3, GlaDOS has had much more exposure and is from a much more well-known and loved game here than Fawful's games, and Missingno will do well against Crono, like around 35%.

You're really letting your bias against joke characters cloud your judgment here. We're trying to predict what other voters are going to vote for, not talk about our favorite brackets.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 2:55:54 PM | message detail
Anything from Portal is a joke.

>_>

<_<

*runs*
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voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 2:56:54 PM | message detail
Portal also isn't as hot these days, I think Team Fortress 2 outlasted it and its characters are probably stronger.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 2:58:46 PM | message detail
Cube's set for Round 3, GlaDOS has had much more exposure and is from a much more well-known and loved game here than Fawful's games, and Missingno will do well against Crono, like around 35%.

You're really letting your bias against joke characters cloud your judgment here. We're trying to predict what other voters are going to vote for, not talk about our favorite brackets.


My bias against jokes may have them losing in my bracket, but it is legitimate to think that they won't be as strong in 1v1 environment.

Heck looking at the oracle very few people have GlaDOS beating Fawful with over 60%.
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 1/10/2010 2:59:19 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #146
Anything from Portal is a joke.

>_>

<_<

*runs*


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3493

If anyone's a joke character, it's Master Chief. And frankly, at this point he is a bigger joke character than the likes of L-Block, WCC, and Missingno.

I don't know why people call L-Block, WCC, and Missingno joke characters when the real jokes are Master Chief, Sonic, and Kefka.
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/10/2010 3:00:13 PM | message detail
jokes getting over half the votes is something we've never seen before

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3257

True, but here's a poll where two jokes got 45.82% against Ryu and Meta-Knight...pretty respectable joke-presence. I also don't think we've seen anything distinctly proven joke-characters will really falter in a one-on-one setting...CATS didn't really look any better in four-ways, for example.

I'm all for L-Block not looking as strong this contest, but HK-47 being a former contest champion? I mean, would HK-47 have beaten it pre-2007 when L 65-35'd Laharl? I get the idea is that four-ways are going to affect the jokes, but this feels a lot like 2008 when people were picking Ryu > MK to eliminate it in the first round.
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