GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 775

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 1/10/2010 9:49:14 AM | message detail
Well, finally finalised my bracket. Decided to go with the Terra > Revan upset, and convinced myself that Magus > Alucard was a safe pick.
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/10/2010 10:00:48 AM | message detail
Revan does scare me, but I think as long as he gets a decent Star Wars'y pic then he should be fine. I've also taken Magus and am not looking back, pretty much solely because of CTDS and seeing Frog straight-up win a vote-in poll (I'm not big on treating those polls like they're legit, but Frog had little business winning that over Rikku and Liquid).
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/10/2010 10:06:25 AM | message detail
I just looked up Terra's match history, and golly gee willickers, I forgot the kind of votals we had here in 2006. Terra vs. Kerrigan drew 100K.
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 1/10/2010 10:22:39 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #053
I just looked up Terra's match history, and golly gee willickers, I forgot the kind of votals we had here in 2006. Terra vs. Kerrigan drew 100K.


I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

I'd probably pick HK-47 over Terra, and as long as Revan gets a good pic, which he should, he'd be recognizable and ooze enough badassedness to easily beat her. Shouldn't hurt that he has one of the biggest video game spoilers under his belt.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/10/2010 10:23:25 AM | message detail
a Darth named character with lightsabers should beat Terra no problem.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/10/2010 10:45:27 AM | message detail
Revan does scare me, but I think as long as he gets a decent Star Wars'y pic then he should be fine. I've also taken Magus and am not looking back, pretty much solely because of CTDS and seeing Frog straight-up win a vote-in poll (I'm not big on treating those polls like they're legit, but Frog had little business winning that over Rikku and Liquid).

Erm.. what about stats wise?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/10/2010 10:57:53 AM | message detail
ve also taken Magus and am not looking back, pretty much solely because of CTDS

LOL CTDS
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 10:59:02 AM | message detail
I took Magus > Alucard because I think Magus is stronger, CTDS just makes me feel better.
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voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 10:59:29 AM | message detail
the CTDS Boost will make us all cry.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 1/10/2010 11:13:28 AM | message detail
CTDS Deboost, even more dramatic then the Brawl Deboost.
Crono loses to Missingno with 28%.
Red Sox hypes Missingno to beat Sephiroth.
Missingno get 39% on Yoshi.
Everyone lols.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/10/2010 11:14:07 AM | message detail
And Charizard still loses to Kratos!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/10/2010 11:14:33 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #061
And Charizard still loses to Duke Nukem!


fixed
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/10/2010 11:17:38 AM | message detail
Not happening, ngirl!

And LOL to the people who think that CTDS will do absolutely nothing. And even if you do that, Magus/Alucard is still even, or even slightly favorable to Magus.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/10/2010 11:19:04 AM | message detail
you know alucard is stronger if the CT favorable outlook from Red Sox is that Magus might only be even to him
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/10/2010 11:20:54 AM | message detail
Magus/Alucard during the day is the worst kind of cripple fight.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/10/2010 11:21:35 AM | message detail
And LOL to the people who think that CTDS will do absolutely nothing.

Why is it going to do something again? Because of the stellar sales?

And even if you do that, Magus/Alucard is still even, or even slightly favorable to Magus.

Based on what? Losing to Sandbag?
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/10/2010 11:21:54 AM | message detail
Hey now, I've been pretty objective on CT since 2008. Just ignore the 3 years before that please!

But the facts are these:

Magus: 40% on Sonic.
Alucard: 36% on Crono, 39% on L-Block Slayer Pikachu.

Your call.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/10/2010 11:23:12 AM | message detail
Magus: 40% on Sonic.

And what about Sandbag's doubling by Sonic in round 2?
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/10/2010 11:23:32 AM | message detail
40% on Sonic doesn't look that good when you factor in that Sonic got decisively beaten by a guy who at best in 53% on Big Boss....who whipped Magus pre-MGS4.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 1/10/2010 11:23:38 AM | message detail
I still say Missingno winning would be the funniest upset ever.
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Don't think it's going to happen though.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/10/2010 11:24:48 AM | message detail
If the Missingno/Crono poll doesn't have some sort of glitch I'm going to be disappointed.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/10/2010 11:25:28 AM | message detail
Why is it going to do something again? Because of the stellar sales?

It sold decently, which is all a game like CT with very little exposure needs to boost. If it had gotten stellar sales, the potential for a huge boost would have been there.

It also showed itself worth 48-49% on LTTP in the Games Contest, while FFVI looks like it'd be very hard pressed to break 40% on LTTP now 1v1. I mean, I'm fine with you thinking the boost will be small. But no boost at all? That's horribly unlikely.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/10/2010 11:26:15 AM | message detail
And then there's Bomberman and Phoenix Wright's 44% on Magus.

Alucard got 63% on Bomberman once!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/10/2010 11:26:55 AM | message detail
It also showed itself worth 48-49% on LTTP in the Games Contest

Which tells us NOTHING because we have no idea how that match goes before CTDS.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/10/2010 11:28:03 AM | message detail
And what about Sandbag's doubling by Sonic in round 2?

Magus didn't lose to that Sandbag though- he lost to the one who got 40% on Sonic. As it is, putting Magus = Alucard in 2008 already gives Crono more than 55% on Sonic, and that's in 2008 before CTDS. I mean, I'm fine if you want to take Crono to put up even larger numbers on Sonic.....
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
HaRRicH | Posted 1/10/2010 11:28:34 AM | message detail
Erm.. what about stats wise?
LOL CTDS


They should be pretty even, I'm just using CTDS as more of a tie-breaker than anything else. I've not been big on it doing much for any of the characters, but given the choice of it doing something for Magus to win an otherwise-even match or allowing Alucard to win said match despite CTDS, I feel better giving it some tie-breaking potential. Plus, again, Frog had little business beating Rikku or Liquid in the vote-in poll regardless of the poll's correlation to strengths and that's the only poll we've seen with a CT-character post-CTDS, so I'll give CTDS a little bit of credit. It shouldn't be a big game-changer for any CT-character though.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/10/2010 11:30:18 AM | message detail
Magus didn't lose to that Sandbag though- he lost to the one who got 40% on Sonic.

So what's the difference exactly? We don't know.

As it is, putting Magus = Alucard in 2008 already gives Crono more than 55% on Sonic, and that's in 2008 before CTDS.

Well, Auron got nearly 54% on him. Crono getting 55%+ isn't out of the realm of possibility if you believe Crono >= Vincent > Auron in 2008.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/10/2010 11:30:30 AM | message detail
Which tells us NOTHING because we have no idea how that match goes before CTDS.

I know you supported CT > LTTP in a rematch for a long time (I did too), but by 2007, it was pretty obvious that the CT characters had fallen a long way. Expecting the game not to do so is just absurd. And again, FFVI tells you rather a lot- the characters experienced a similar fall to that of the CT characters, and the game tanked against LTTP.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/10/2010 11:30:38 AM | message detail
Basing Magus on a match where he had every reason to overperform by a huge amount? That logic never goes wrong.

Ever.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/10/2010 11:30:46 AM | message detail
CTDS boost ain't happening, people.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/10/2010 11:31:45 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #078
Which tells us NOTHING because we have no idea how that match goes before CTDS.

I know you supported CT > LTTP in a rematch for a long time (I did too), but by 2007, it was pretty obvious that the CT characters had fallen a long way. Expecting the game not to do so is just absurd. And again, FFVI tells you rather a lot- the characters experienced a similar fall to that of the CT characters, and the game tanked against LTTP.


Yeah, because CT and FFVI are going to drop proportionately, right?

We don't know.

And if you think CTDS kept CT from losing with less than 45%, that's pretty silly.
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voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 11:50:37 AM | message detail
Now if only alucard had been the main character of Lord of Shadows this match wouldn't have been as hard to predict.
But I'm going for the logic that Alucard loses to Magus to avoid facing link.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/10/2010 12:07:59 PM | message detail
Their characters' drops were close enough that yeah, LTTP or SM64 would probably have won with more than 55% over CT without CTDS.

And Crono over Sonic with 55% in 2008 is quite believable, but that sets Magus and Alucard as even. To say the stats in 2008 favor Alucard, you have to take Crono over Sonic with more than that. I said that Magus/Alucard was an even matchup in 2008, and slightly favorable to Magus if anything, not that Alucard had no chance in that year or that it wouldn't be close.

War, you're correct that Sonic/Magus is not trustworthy, for the reason that we saw almost every other Noble Niner underperform in round 1 (with the exception, it seems, of Crono, who did pretty similarly on Ammy in both round 1 and 2). It still doesn't make Magus any worse than even against Alucard in 2008 though.

The other thing is that Magus was extrapolated to 40% on Crono back in 2005, and while Knux probably overperformed on Squall, and Magus has fallen relative to Crono since then, he's still probably worth no less than 35% on Crono now. It look very even before CTDS.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Xeybozn | Posted 1/10/2010 1:06:56 PM | message detail
I've got a question about Alucard/Magus: Why is it being a day match considered a bad thing for Magus? I thought it would be good for him since there would be less of a Europe vote, which usually makes Chrono Trigger look terrible. It's isn't like Alucard is going to kill him with the day vote, after all.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/10/2010 1:07:55 PM | message detail
Why is it being a day match considered a bad thing for Magus?

are you joking
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LOLContests | Posted 1/10/2010 1:10:42 PM | message detail
Alucard got 63% on Bomberman once!

So did Squall!
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voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 1:12:54 PM | message detail
bomberman should be in a fourpack with kirby again.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/10/2010 1:14:28 PM | message detail
It being a day match is not generally being considered a bad thing for Magus. Both characters suck at it.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 1:17:04 PM | message detail
the votals, for Alucard/Magus will probably end up being stupidly low tbh.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/10/2010 1:19:47 PM | message detail
I don't think so. It's probably going to be as a lot of people have said- most of the night voters will still vote in the day matches. The night matches will probably be affected a bit more (though still not as catastrophically as you might expect). It'll be interesting to see whether Link/Thrall or Magus/Alucard draws more votes.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 1:23:15 PM | message detail
I think the first hour will be bigger than usual for the day matches, but other than that I an't see influxes being that big.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/10/2010 1:24:09 PM | message detail

From: voltch | #091
I think the first hour will be bigger than usual for the day matches, but other than that I an't see influxes being that big.


Day matches will start when most people are in school or work.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 1:25:20 PM | message detail
I think the first hour will be bigger than usual for the day matches, but other than that I an't see influxes being that big.

It'll probably have more votes than usual, but not everybody has that time off on GameFAQs.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/10/2010 1:26:55 PM | message detail
The trends are probably going to be a lot less pronounced in the day matches, with people who normally vote early in the poll voting throughout the ASV and evening.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/10/2010 1:31:01 PM | message detail
Magus and Alucard may both suck during the day, but the difference is that Magus relies on that first couple hours a lot more than Alucard does, and Magus doesn't have that in this match.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 1:32:24 PM | message detail
Magus and Alucard may both suck during the day, but the difference is that Magus relies on that first couple hours a lot more than Alucard does, and Magus doesn't have that in this match.

I'm sure that almost everyone who voted in the power hour will vote in the day match at some point.
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voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 1:33:22 PM | message detail
Anyone else believes that 12 hours is somewhat beneficial to joke characters as well?
Jokes tend to start off strong, so they can probably ride off an early start and just keep hanging in there.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/10/2010 1:33:34 PM | message detail
I don't think as many people are going to vote in both polls as some of you seem to think.
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voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 1:35:21 PM | message detail
but if its just the power it's a small yet significant percentage still.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 1:37:40 PM | message detail
A large portion of the site visits GameFAQs more than once a day. While vote totals will be a lot lower the extremes between night and day will be a lot lower in this contest and will continue to drop as the contest progresses.

Also Alucard is just as bad in the night and if any continent takes a hit it will be Europe which likes Castlevania and doesn't care for Chrono Trigger.
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