GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 775

UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/8/2010 9:05:17 PM | message detail
COMET CRASH VS TANNER, WHO YOU GOT?



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/8/2010 9:06:53 PM | message detail
Jay Solano > Both
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"Not until the end. Always."
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 1/9/2010 6:21:54 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #002
Jay Solano > Both


Jay Solano would get, what, 99% on both?
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Not Wylvane
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/9/2010 9:18:41 PM | message detail
Sora might break 40%.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
red sox 777 | Posted 1/9/2010 9:19:21 PM | message detail
Not to bring panic, but using Dragon Age and Demon's Soul...

Modern Warfare 2 = Uncharted 2

Of course using Borderlands Modern Warfare doubles Uncharted 2.


lol 9-way x-stats?

On the other hand.....Knuckles beats Sonic with 50.87%. Exactly. So say the INFALLIBLE stats. Defy them at your own peril.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/9/2010 9:19:49 PM | message detail
On the other hand.....Knuckles beats Sonic with 50.87%

I'm sold.

*changes bracket*
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/9/2010 9:21:37 PM | message detail
Yoshi > Mario

Sora beat Yoshi despite Squall in the poll

Thus, Sora > Mario.

See?

It's more like Mario might break 30% on Sora!
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/9/2010 9:23:22 PM | message detail
If anybody's looking for a sexy upset this contest, it's Knuckles > Sonic...!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/9/2010 9:24:17 PM | message detail
Sonic loses in the first round duh

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/9/2010 9:24:26 PM | message detail
By the way, Bacon skipped the MMORPG poll, based on last year's ordering, and he'll probably skip Best Remake (Were there even any major remakes this year?), and the Final, Final Vote, so we should be able to squeeze everything in.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/9/2010 9:24:26 PM | message detail
For the record, here were the number of options in each year's GotY polls (not the "Final Vote" poll):

2008, 2007, 2006, and 2005 - 9-way poll
2003 and 1999 - 10-way poll
2004 - 8-way poll
2002 - 12-way poll

Considering that today's poll already gives us a total of 10 games moving onto the actual GotY poll, I don't think we'll be seeing any more polls besides System of the Year and Best Running MMORPG (possibly) before getting into the actual GotY poll. The chances of getting "Best Remake" are very slim here.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
charmander6000 | Posted 1/9/2010 9:24:41 PM | message detail
Since the front page says the brackets close on Friday then that means the contest has been delayed to the 16th which means we can still have a Game of the Decade poll.

Unless we get a best remake or best MMORPG poll tomorrow.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/9/2010 9:25:15 PM | message detail
Massive Sonic drop.

Cecil SFFs Lightning due to Game of the Year poll winner FFIV the After Years.

Cecil to the quarterfinals let's do this.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/9/2010 9:25:47 PM | message detail
By the way, Bacon skipped the MMORPG poll, based on last year's ordering, and he'll probably skip Best Remake (Were there even any major remakes this year?), and the Final, Final Vote, so we should be able to squeeze everything in.

He switched download and multiplatform around.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380
red sox 777 | Posted 1/9/2010 9:26:11 PM | message detail
No, do not delay the contest Bacon! I don't care if you just skip GOTY altogether and give us 5 days of Weakest Female Villains of the Decade, I do not want to wait a day longer to see this contest start.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/9/2010 9:26:11 PM | message detail
LOL Cecil SFFing anything

ZackFAQs'D
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
HaRRicH | Posted 1/9/2010 9:30:04 PM | message detail
I'd happily wait a day for a GotD-poll, but no more and not for any other poll.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/9/2010 9:30:42 PM | message detail
Contest, not poll.

I'm serious. It's happening.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
transience | Posted 1/9/2010 9:44:03 PM | message detail
the only thing this poll is showing is the strength of the PS3 GOTY poll. infamous and Demon's Souls are both rocking the Wii's second place game.
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xyzzy
Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/9/2010 9:46:03 PM | message detail

From: transience | #019
the only thing this poll is showing is the strength of the PS3 GOTY poll. infamous and Demon's Souls are both rocking the Wii's second place game.


Don't forget its also showing us that Borderlands is actually pretty strong once you get it away from the other online FPS.
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Lolicon Fanboyism
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/9/2010 9:46:22 PM | message detail
We can also see the strength of the DS poll! Scribblenauts doing better here than in the DS poll!

358/2 Days a darkhorse contender book it
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
HaRRicH | Posted 1/9/2010 9:53:38 PM | message detail
Pssh, that's the Wii's #4-game. Punch-Out!! and WSR both would have beaten it if it wasn't for NSMBW, even if that's a common excuse for GotY-polls on Nintendo-systems.
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transience | Posted 1/9/2010 9:55:10 PM | message detail
punchout got under 10% in a pathetic poll. it doesn't get any excuses. hell, Muramasa's losing to Plants vs. Zombies.
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/9/2010 10:01:15 PM | message detail
5547 votes at the 1 hour mark; how does this compare to the other goty polls, luster?
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Lolicon Fanboyism
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/9/2010 10:05:20 PM | message detail
5547 votes at the 1 hour mark; how does this compare to the other goty polls, luster?

That is the second highest number of votes at the end of the first hour out of all of the GotY polls we've had so far. Multiplatform had 6413 while PS3 had 5277. Multiplatform eventually goes on to end at 74981 while PS3 ends at 61058. I wager we end up at around 65000 today.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
HaRRicH | Posted 1/9/2010 10:10:36 PM | message detail
Punch-Out would have done considerably better in the same sense that MKW/MP3/Wii Sports would have if it wasn't for SSBB/SMG/LoZ:TP, and that would most likely be enough to overcome the 2% advantage that some game I hadn't heard of before the Wii-GotY has on it.
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KnuxBeatMagus | Posted 1/9/2010 10:11:17 PM | message detail
It's still pretty sorry, and how in the world did Little Mac not make the contest, by the way?
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/9/2010 10:12:12 PM | message detail
and that would most likely be enough to overcome the 2% advantage that some game I hadn't heard of before the Wii-GotY has on it.

Punch out ain't touching this:

http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/kotaku/2009/08/playcover.jpg
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Lolicon Fanboyism
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/9/2010 10:12:34 PM | message detail

From: KnuxBeatMagus | #027
It's still pretty sorry, and how in the world did Little Mac not make the contest, by the way?


split support between him and doc louis
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Lolicon Fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 1/9/2010 10:16:02 PM | message detail
I agree, disappointing performance by PO -- that's why I concede that WSR would have beaten it. Muramasa though? I'm going to need to see that in a more fair situation before I believe that one.

And, uh, sure, I'll take credit for Little Mac being snubbed...but it was for a good cause!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/9/2010 10:17:09 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #030
I agree, disappointing performance by PO -- that's why I concede that WSR would have beaten it. Muramasa though? I'm going to need to see that in a more fair situation before I believe that one.

And, uh, sure, I'll take credit for Little Mac being snubbed...but it was for a good cause!


muramasa is essentially a hentai game. you run around as a hot girl in a towel FFS

it doesnt surprise me that it beat punch out
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Lolicon Fanboyism
KnuxBeatMagus | Posted 1/9/2010 10:17:11 PM | message detail
More like no cause at all because Doc Louis crumbled as easily as a Butterfinger chocolate bar!
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
transience | Posted 1/9/2010 10:18:49 PM | message detail
you can always tell when somebody hasn't played Muramasa. :)

Punchout would probably beat Muramasa, but that's because of name recognition more than anything else.
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/9/2010 10:21:12 PM | message detail
woah did tranny just do a smiley face? I've never seen him do that before

its creepy
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Lolicon Fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 1/9/2010 10:21:26 PM | message detail
Why do you think people say "Nobody better lay a finger on my Butterfinger?" Because it crumbles so easily, duh.

More seriously, it wouldn't have been anywhere as fun rallying for Little Mac for six months, even if it would have been more worthwhile from a strength-perspective. I regret nothing. =)
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/9/2010 10:26:31 PM | message detail
Glad to see Borderlands just dying now. Shoulda never been close to a game as great as Dragon age in the first place
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Lolicon Fanboyism
KnuxBeatMagus | Posted 1/9/2010 10:31:40 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #034
woah did tranny just do a smiley face? I've never seen him do that before

its creepy


It's like watching Nick Saban "smile."
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
transience | Posted 1/9/2010 10:32:03 PM | message detail
=)
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 1/9/2010 10:37:30 PM | message detail
let's predict the final

Modern Warfare 2 - 30%
NSMB - 23%
Uncharted 2 - 21%
KHDS - 8%
Dissidia - 7%
ODST - 6%
The Sims 3 - 2%
FF4-2 - 2%
whatever won the PS2 poll - 1%

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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 1/9/2010 10:38:02 PM | message detail
That looks about right to me.

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the journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/10/2010 1:58:56 AM | message detail

From: transience | Posted: 1/10/2010 1:18:49 AM | #033
you can always tell when somebody hasn't played Muramasa. :)


Was about to say this. Muramasa is pretty SotN/Metroid without all the backtracking. You just run around kicking the **** out of things in fun ways with 2 buttons over and over.
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Hey, it's that dog!
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 1/10/2010 3:20:39 AM | message detail
muramasa is essentially a hentai game. you run around as a hot girl in a towel FFS

it doesnt surprise me that it beat punch out


yeah hentai games are usually so popular here good point
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/10/2010 6:45:38 AM | message detail
Anyone here uneasy about Ratchet even making it out of Round 1?
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.
charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 6:53:01 AM | message detail
Yup, but I also have no faith in Eddie Riggs of Brutal Legend.
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voltch | Posted 1/10/2010 6:57:37 AM | message detail
Eddie might win just because he's Jack Black really, but who is the strongest Tim Schafer character anyway?
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Shakes Fist!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/10/2010 7:00:56 AM | message detail
We also didn't get a chance to see Brutal Legend in a poll unfortunately. How big is it? It matched Uncharted 2 in hype apparently.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.
charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2010 7:01:04 AM | message detail
Didn't stop Officer Tenpenny (Samuel L. Jackson) from getting crushed during the villain contest.
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 1/10/2010 7:11:07 AM | message detail
Hahahaha, Officer Tenpenny.

Downloadable games are getting reamed. I didn't expect them to get crushed this bad against decent competition. The good part though is that you can use Dragon Age: Origins vs Fat Princess, with DA:O getting over 90% at this point of time, to compare MW2 against Comet Crash to make the game appear even weaker. All the more reason to have a Game of the Decade poll, especially if somehow NSMBW upsets MW2 and makes it into the poll and gets dead last against FFX, which we can then use to compare against FF7 and OoT in the 2009 finals where it got SFFed bad! OoT to get 99.99% on Comet Crashers, aw yeah!

I think I'm enjoying CC's weakness more than anyone else here.

Anyway, solid performance by Borderlands. Still think Claptrap's going to bomb hard, of course, and I doubt Borderlands would do much in a contest, but it's still nice to see it hanging in there with DA:O.

Also nice to see WRPGs like DA:O having solid strength. Maybe this foreshadows ME2 having actual strength? Hah, now I'm getting carried away.
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Not Wylvane
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/10/2010 9:32:40 AM | message detail
great votals today compared to the other goty polls
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Lolicon Fanboyism
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/10/2010 9:41:42 AM | message detail
also I'm liking Infamous to pass Demon Souls with the day vote. Anyone else think so?
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Lolicon Fanboyism