GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 772

UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/2/2010 7:49:14 PM | message detail
13 days left!



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
paulg235 | Posted 1/2/2010 7:49:56 PM | message detail
Uncharted 2, let's see what you've got.
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"paulg is a genius." - MajinZidane
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/2/2010 7:49:59 PM | message detail
Squall > Auron
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/2/2010 9:50:07 PM | message detail
No to post 499 and 500.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/2/2010 9:50:51 PM | message detail
Cecil > Knuckles choo choo
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Never forget - 12/10/2009
HOPE
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/2/2010 9:50:53 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1870

Can't see MP2 beating ToS so handily now.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1871

Even in 2004, GameFAQs knew which PC game was superior! Notice how The Sims 2 is a distant third. Shows how weak this year was for PC gaming.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1872

Would you take GTA:SA over MGS3 now?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1874

Super Mario 64 DS > Super Mario Bros 3 confirmed.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1875

I love how FF11 almost lost to Burnout. Shame it didn't!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1876
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1877

I'm surprised how well HL2 did here considering.
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Not Wylvane
paulg235 | Posted 1/2/2010 9:51:41 PM | message detail
Worst topic ending ever.

Worst GOTY poll ever.
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash and co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it" - Mer telling us his dream
Ngamer64 | Posted 1/2/2010 9:53:16 PM | message detail
I disagree that a GotD poll would be boring. I'm thinking it would end up...

BEST OF THE 2000's: Game of the Decade
2001: Final Fantasy X
2009: Modern Warfare 2
2005: Resident Evil 4
2008: Super Smash Bros. Brawl
2006: Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
2004: Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
2007: Super Mario Galaxy
2002: Metroid Prime
2003: The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker


We're pretty well locked into FFX > RE4 > Brawl > TP > Galaxy > Prime > Wind Waker thanks to Nintendo LFF. But Modern Warfare's a pretty cool wildcard. It's super independent and at the peak of its strength... could that be enough to challenge RE4? Maybe even FFX?

And plus we'd get to see GTA make a complete fool of itself again by failing to beat TP despite being given every possible opportunity.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/2/2010 9:53:52 PM | message detail
could that be enough to challenge RE4? Maybe even FFX?

No, don't be silly.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/2/2010 9:54:38 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1485

Damn, Pokemon got no respect early on. Makes me think that Pokemon RBY would be rather weak if it made it in the 2004 contest, so I'm glad it waited until the next contest to completely dominate the field.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1487

Call of Duty does decent, and KotOR beats Halo. Nifty.
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Not Wylvane
Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/2/2010 9:56:42 PM | message detail
woah i just checked the poll again

since when did jak and daxter take a 2.4% lead
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 1/2/2010 9:58:35 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1485

Damn, Pokemon got no respect early on. Makes me think that Pokemon RBY would be rather weak if it made it in the 2004 contest, so I'm glad it waited until the next contest to completely dominate the field.


in every other Pokemon game's defense, that is the one Pokemon game that doesn't actually deserve to do well in one of these polls
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/2/2010 9:59:24 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1128

lmao @ Sunshine. Such an underrated game.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1129

More proof that Blizzard was the only PC company that mattered before Valve and Bethesda stepped up, though Morrowind looks alright here.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1130

GTA:VC > KH amuses and delights me.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1131

No wonder Sam Fisher beat Gordon Freeman.
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Not Wylvane
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/2/2010 10:01:21 PM | message detail
After one hour, this poll has 3614 votes.

...
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"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
ZFS | Posted 1/2/2010 10:02:21 PM | message detail
Nobunaga's Ambition is the best choice here. The PS2, it had a good run.

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the journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step
Ngamer64 | Posted 1/2/2010 10:02:46 PM | message detail
You seriously don't think MW2 can challenge RE4, Leon? Seriously?

I agree it'd have no chance 1v1, but it should have an excellent chance in this setting.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/2/2010 10:03:25 PM | message detail
The PS2 poll is like that sports player who keeps playing even though everyone knows he's washed up, and now it's just sad to watch.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/2/2010 10:04:00 PM | message detail
I agree it'd have no chance 1v1, but it should have an excellent chance in this setting.

Based on what?

RE4 isn't Nintendo, if that's what you're getting at.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/2/2010 10:04:29 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=767

wat

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=769

Now I want to see Conker's BFD in a contest.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=770

No wonder Max Payne beat Gordon Freeman.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=773

DoA3 > Max Payne, no wonder Tina Armstrong beat Gordon Freeman.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=774

Really, people wanted to replace Golden Sun with Fire Emblem? Still idiotic.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=776

Amazing how dominant FFX was. SSBM can't even blame LFF for that. Wonder when Smash Bros really became a hit here.
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Not Wylvane
ZFS | Posted 1/2/2010 10:05:53 PM | message detail
Gotta give it credit, though, it managed to last a good ten years. Doubt we'll ever see another system manage that.

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the journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/2/2010 10:10:07 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=31

Should've replaced Smash Bros with Wrestlemania instead!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=33

Why haven't we seen "Other" in a contest yet?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=34

A GotY poll that Pokemon finally wins!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=35

AHAHAHAHAHAHA Neo-Geo Pocket. Almost as low as Poll 1's votals.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=36

Ignoring the Square domination, I'd like to point out Activision being dead last. If only gamers were still this smart ten years later!
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Not Wylvane
AmazingKirby | Posted 1/2/2010 10:44:59 PM | message detail
So everytime I go to gamefaqscontests.com, I see this recent contest with games in it that apparently happened in 2009.

I know it sounds crazy, but I honestly don't remember that happening. I was definitely here. Maybe it was just forgettable? Or I have amnesia or something...
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caps
Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/2/2010 11:28:10 PM | message detail
well seems jak and daxter will likely win this. i have a hard time seeing a cult jrpg getting the day vote over a platformer
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/2/2010 11:33:47 PM | message detail
So I just read all the stats topics from the 2007 contest again. It's so much fun to read about people acting like Phoenix and Yoshi are frontloaded knowing what waits just around the corner.

Also as great as anything L-Block did was, Bidoof/Vincent was the best hour of actual posts of them all, followed closely by the board reaction as they got burned by Pikachu not once, not twice, but three times.
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Never forget - 12/10/2009
HOPE
voltch | Posted 1/3/2010 4:44:03 AM | message detail
Mana Khemia sucking? Laharl is doomed guys.
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Shakes Fist!
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/3/2010 6:19:26 AM | message detail
Share some awesome Pikachu posts.

I may have enjoyed Pikachu's run more than L-Block's. He's a badass no matter what media he's in.
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Not Wylvane
Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/3/2010 10:56:05 AM | message detail
jak and daxter under 2% on goty confirmed
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/3/2010 11:08:01 AM | message detail
Reading old stats topics is an adventure in hilarity.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
red sox 777 | Posted 1/3/2010 11:22:34 AM | message detail
MW2 has a chance against RE4 in the GOTC poll. It's not because of a RE4/Nintendo connection but rather because MW2 really stands out there. Plus, RE4/MW2 1v1 right now probably shouldn't be a lock....in a few months, probably.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/3/2010 11:23:58 AM | message detail
but rather because MW2 really stands out there

No more than RE4 does.

RE4 would beat MW2 easily today or any day.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/3/2010 11:24:51 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #030
but rather because MW2 really stands out there

No more than RE4 does.

RE4 would beat MW2 easily today or any day.


Well duh, MW2 isnt even gonna win goty here, let a lone place 2nd on the GOTC poll.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/3/2010 11:26:55 AM | message detail
Will there even be a century/decade poll? It would be interesting.
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Krahen Prophet did a fatality.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/3/2010 11:27:40 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #032
Will there even be a century/decade poll? It would be interesting.


It'd make sense if there was (and I'd like to see it), but we don't know yet.

...Ceej should throw in FFVII and OoT for the heck of it just to see what happens.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/3/2010 11:27:49 AM | message detail
Ceej.

*slaps self*

Bacon.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
red sox 777 | Posted 1/3/2010 11:29:53 AM | message detail
It stands out as the only shooter there, one of only 2 Western games, and as the newest game. Yeah, it won't matter if it ends up not being that strong, but we have no way to judge its strength really until we actually see it in a poll.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/3/2010 11:30:54 AM | message detail
I'm not sure if MW2 ends up any stronger than the first, and it got smoked by real competition in the Games Contest.

Poor Galaxy.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/3/2010 11:35:10 AM | message detail
RE4 would be the favorite 1v1, but I wouldn't count out MW2 even then. For GotD, I'd lean toward MW2, especially right now when it's at its strongest, and especially considering how games usually overperform in GotY polls.

MW2 has every advantage possible if we have a GotD poll to beat RE4. Still don't think it'd come close to FFX, but it'll definitely put on an impressive showing.

I also expect Brawl to put a strong performance despite the huge LFF there. I think even with TP and Galaxy there, Brawl would crush both with SFF and pull an easy second and may even give FFX a run for its money.
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Not Wylvane
charmander6000 | Posted 1/3/2010 11:42:29 AM | message detail
Resident Evil 4 didn't exactly dominate the Nintendo options in the previous poll either.

Also who's to say that MW2 will win. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if New Super Mario Bros. Wii won.
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Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/3/2010 11:44:02 AM | message detail
At this point I wouldn't be surprised if New Super Mario Bros. Wii won.

the multiplatform winner is gonna win goty. and seeing previous polls, if anything takes advantage of MW2s fall in popularity in the last month, its dragon age
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/3/2010 11:44:52 AM | message detail
RE4 would smoke MW2 one on one.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
charmander6000 | Posted 1/3/2010 11:46:36 AM | message detail
It's time for NintenFAQs to rise up from the ashes.
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Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/3/2010 11:47:51 AM | message detail
Remember how people were so sure about GTA4 winning the multiplatform poll last year, then out of no where, FO3 dominates it?

MW2/Dragon Age reeks of this to me. And on Gamefaqs, when given the choice, always bet on the Nintendo game or RPG
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/3/2010 11:51:22 AM | message detail
Though to be serious I do agree that Dragon Age has the best chance at winning the GotY after Modern Warfare 2.

Too bad Morrigan or Alistar couldn't have made it. They probably would have flopped given the ensemble cast thing.
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Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/3/2010 11:53:52 AM | message detail
And regarding NSMB Wii, I'd give it more of a chance if it did better on previous polls. But it really kinda flopped.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 1/3/2010 12:01:28 PM | message detail
I still say this is the greatest poll we've ever had, just because of how much the site has shifted.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3

In comparison:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1443
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And a massive slap round the face to everyone who says this site was "built" on FFVII.
Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/3/2010 12:03:22 PM | message detail
why did he have FFIV on it twice?
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/3/2010 12:04:50 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy IV EasyType

What is this?


And a massive slap round the face to everyone who says this site was "built" on FFVII.

Just because it was built on FFVII doesn't mean the game has to be the favourite.
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Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/3/2010 12:07:12 PM | message detail
FFIV Easy Type is the original SNES that was dumbed down in difficulty due to Square thinking it was too hard for Americans. All later releases were the original though, like the FF collection on PS1 and GBA version
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RPGuy96 | Posted 1/3/2010 12:07:17 PM | message detail
When Final Fantasy IV was released here as Final Fantasy II, it was somewhat dumbed down compared to the original. Hence the "Easytype" designation.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/3/2010 12:07:55 PM | message detail
Also stop writing important stuff in your sig, I usually don't read who the posts are from.
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