GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 770

MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/29/2009 8:55:24 AM | message detail
And if Kirby/Ganondorf somehow manage to beat Sonic, lol.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/29/2009 9:08:15 AM | message detail
So Ezio>Belmont is a lock? There are some others there that I question too....

The only time Belmont has looked good was in the write-in polls. Heck he did worse in his rematch against Crono in 2007 despite Crono probably being weaker than his 2002 self.

The only way I see Simon winning is if Ezio flops hard.

I found the wiki being pretty liberal in potential upsets, the only things I really disagree with is MC > Hayabusa being a lock (likely yes, lock no) and Kratos being a lock for the division finals (well I agree with it, but some people won't)
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/29/2009 9:10:58 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | Posted: 12/29/2009 12:08:15 PM | #202
So Ezio>Belmont is a lock? There are some others there that I question too....

The only time Belmont has looked good was in the write-in polls. Heck he did worse in his rematch against Crono in 2007 despite Crono probably being weaker than his 2002 self.

The only way I see Simon winning is if Ezio flops hard.

I found the wiki being pretty liberal in potential upsets, the only things I really disagree with is MC > Hayabusa being a lock (likely yes, lock no) and Kratos being a lock for the division finals (well I agree with it, but some people won't)


You know the main thing about wikis is anyone can edit one, right?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 12/29/2009 9:37:06 AM | message detail
Er, yeah, the person who made that has also deluded themselves into thinking Bowser > Frog isn't a lock
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/29/2009 9:44:28 AM | message detail
Probably because it's a night match.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 12/29/2009 9:51:58 AM | message detail
But it's a day match
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/29/2009 9:53:32 AM | message detail
Then I have nothing.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/29/2009 9:54:39 AM | message detail
Arthas has a better shot of beating Bowser then Frog.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/29/2009 9:55:15 AM | message detail
Neither of them have any real shot of beating Bowser.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/29/2009 9:55:34 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #209
Neither of them have any real shot of beating Bowser.


of course not. neither will avoid a doubling
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/29/2009 9:57:55 AM | message detail
I only put Frog on there because of past antics, but I'll take him down if you really want.

That plus Hayabusa > Chief good enough?
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ffmasterjose | Posted 12/29/2009 9:58:37 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy VIII recently being released on the PSN in North America can only do good things for Squall!
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/29/2009 10:02:22 AM | message detail
Give Charizard a chance against Kratos to make some people happy.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/29/2009 10:02:53 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #213
Give Charizard a chance against Kratos to make some people happy.


giving people hope for an impossible upset is mean
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/29/2009 10:03:48 AM | message detail
I made sure Charizard and Duke were listed along with Kratos, removed Frog and have Ryu H up there with The Chief.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/29/2009 10:32:22 AM | message detail
of course not. neither will avoid a doubling

Of course Frog will. It takes Noble Niner strength to double him.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/29/2009 10:36:33 AM | message detail
I'm late on this, but Revan has to be a huge flop to lose his opener. Even with Dissidia, there's no way Terra is the same after almost five years of aging. Kefka gets worse every year, and he's the beloved face of that game. 2K10 Terra loses to 2K5 Terra, something that FFVI's performance earlier this year hints at bigtime.

If Terra is weaker than her 2005 self, then Revan has to be bad fodder to lose. I think the chances are slim that his floor will be so low.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/29/2009 10:44:36 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #201
And if Kirby/Ganondorf somehow manage to beat Sonic, lol.


I think Kirby would actually hold up surprisingly well against Link. Link/Ganondorf, on the other hand... Hahahaha! I'd love to see the x-stats for that, if only to see what characters beat out Sonic!
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/29/2009 10:45:35 AM | message detail
I just had an idea. Maybe Frog is the one destined to beat Sonic to overthrow the Noble Nine, not Magus. Yes, I can picture it now. Wielding his new CTDS boost and a perfect sprite picture with a bright shining sword against Sonic's ugliest sprite, Frog takes a big lead early on. Sonic destroys most of the lead by the end of the morning vote, and Frog builds it back up a bit with the DSV. Sonic starts tearing Frog apart with the ASV, surging into the lead before Gamefaqs suddenly goes down for 2 hours. When the site comes back online the ASV is over, Frog slows Sonic's gains and then stalls him, and one more crazy final hour rally later, Frog has taken down the Noble Nine.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
charmander6000 | Posted 12/29/2009 11:53:15 AM | message detail
I'm late on this, but Revan has to be a huge flop to lose his opener. Even with Dissidia, there's no way Terra is the same after almost five years of aging. Kefka gets worse every year, and he's the beloved face of that game. 2K10 Terra loses to 2K5 Terra, something that FFVI's performance earlier this year hints at bigtime.

Well if you think Kefka is the fodder line and the Terra/Kefka comparison is the same after five years, that's about 42% on the fodder line. Not looking good for Terra.


What's everyone's opinion on Commander Shepard/Ellis? Does the release of Mass Effect 2 = instant win for Shepard?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/29/2009 12:18:21 PM | message detail
I don't get why FF6 characters get hyped every single year. It would take a miracle for Terra to win her first match.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/29/2009 12:26:54 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #216
of course not. neither will avoid a doubling

Of course Frog will. It takes Noble Niner strength to double him.


2007 bowser comes close to a doubling on 2007 frog
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/29/2009 12:32:09 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #220
What's everyone's opinion on Commander Shepard/Ellis? Does the release of Mass Effect 2 = instant win for Shepard?


Underrated match. Shepard has ME2 on the horizon, but he's against a Valve character, and I'd pick Valve over most kinds of fodder.

Still going with Shepard on that, though. ME2's gonna bring a bunch of people to the site since it's the next big release, and Shepard is a pretty stand-out character, even if you can change Shepard's appearance and gender. Plus I don't see any L4D2 characters standing out as much as characters from Portal or Half-Life. But at the same time, I'm not counting out Ellis winning, either. Should be an interesting match.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/29/2009 12:36:28 PM | message detail
ellis doesnt stand a chance. he's fodder from a game that wasn't even one of the most popular holiday games. honestly, whats to say clamptrap or whatever that thing is called wont be stronger? Borderlands has done better on polls then Left 4 dead 2
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/29/2009 12:38:35 PM | message detail
Yeah, to those that have played L4D2 are the four characters equal or is one of them loved more than the other?

I know I don't like to bring games, but Left 4 Dead did have an easy time beating Mass Effect, but it looks like that game may suffer from ensemble cast syndrome.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/29/2009 12:40:15 PM | message detail
Its not a game that one would think the characters would be that strong from. its one of those games where its just some characters with 1 liners and stuff that aren't very deep at all
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/29/2009 12:43:51 PM | message detail
I heard you can customize Commander Shepard's appearance, wouldn't that affect his strength?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/29/2009 12:45:48 PM | message detail
Dunno if it would or not. The story is still all about Shepard, and Bioware did this huge marketing campaign for Mass Effect 2 about Shepard dying in ME2 that we still don't know if its true or not.

Regardless, Shepard is very vital to the series
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 12/29/2009 1:21:42 PM | message detail
The only guy from L4D I would vote for is Bill. And he'd have to face some weakass fodder for me to do that.

People should have pushed to nominate Boomer, not Ellis. People who are fans of both games can recognize Boomer.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 12/29/2009 1:57:04 PM | message detail
Ellis is the best character in the Left 4 Dead franchise easily, but his game is too new and gameplay oriented for him to stand a chance.
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H__RR____H | Posted 12/29/2009 7:52:16 PM | message detail
Squall's comfortably beaten Sora AND Tidus before. In both cases, he took the character's fanbase and made them look pretty bad, handily defeating them. Auron's base is basically a mix of KH's and FFX's. Since Squall has shown he can steal both of those from Auron, I'm taking him to win comfortably, 57-43 style.

For what it's worth, Auron beat Tidus worse in the FFX-poll from 2002 than Squall post-KH2 beat Tidus one-on-one in 2006. While Auron never faced Sora, Squall/Auron both faced Sonic and Cloud before, where Auron wins both comparisons. Also, Squall handily defeated Sora once and had three other close matches with him. Most people would take Auron > Sora, too, so I don't like how much of a gimme Squall > Auron seems to be. Squall clearly has the reputation and potential to win, but not enough of one to be such an undisputed favorite. It can go either way very easily, and I wish people would look over the polls with them (and their games if they care about that) more before deciding rather than citing Vincent/Squall as borderline-equals and leaving it at that.


For Sonic/Ganondorf/Kirby, again, Sonic > Ganondorf > Kirby. Four-ways really mucked some stuff up, so it's really hard to tell who exactly is the strongest Nintendo character after the big three. Ganondorf is probably the favorite for that position, but fluke performances or not I'm not completely ruling out Luigi, Kirby, or Pikachu until I see how they fare this contest. Again, I think people are underrating Kirby (OK, just Charmander), and if anyone got a boost from HAL's Brawl besides Snake and Sonic, it'd be HAL mascot Kirby, who's plastered throughout the game and even has two other characters from his series involved. Kirby could outperform Ganondorf on Sonic, and it wouldn't surprise me.

Yeah, Kirby-n-gang really are all over SSBB -- not just the characters, but the levels and even items (yeah yeah, go ahead and ridicule again!). That said, LoZ/SMB//Pokemon have more representation with playable characters than Kirby series-wise, so be cautius with that comparison. I feel like Kirby will look better in SFF-situations than in the past, though I wouldn't take him over Luigi because he looks to do better lately too. I don't think either one beats Ganondorf with fair pictures, though I think Ganon/Kirby (and probably Luigi, though I'm oddly lacking confidence there) will perform similarly on Sonic.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/29/2009 9:02:20 PM | message detail
43% for 360 last year, and 40% so far here in this poll... doesn't seem like 360 has made much movement
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/29/2009 9:05:03 PM | message detail
It just started.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/29/2009 9:27:36 PM | message detail
I probably wouldn't pick Kirby over Luigi, but that's because I think Luigi has boosted quite a bit since his earlier days. That, or he benefited a lot from four-ways, which I guess could be possible. But considering how much Luigi's been involved recently, with a large role in Galaxy and being a playable character in both NSMB games, plus downplaying how much of a sniveling coward he is (besides Brawl and I'm assuming M&L3, which I still really, really need to play).

At least we'll get a good idea on who'd win between Ganondorf and Kirby, whether directly or indirectly. Plus Luigi will get some decent opportunities to be tested, and Snake's as good a barometer as any to test Pikachu, especially if Pikachu does well and Snake upsets Sephiroth. Aw yeah, go Pikachu > Sonic in the x-stats.

Also, not really relevant to the stats and crossing into LMS territory, but still something I think may be interesting for contest discussion. A list of the top 25 characters introduced this decade. Be wary, as it's pretty damn spoilerish. http://www.gamesradar.com/f/the-25-best-new-characters-of-the-decade/a-20091221171910974007
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KrahenProphet | Posted 12/29/2009 9:30:16 PM | message detail
What's everyone's opinion on Commander Shepard/Ellis? Does the release of Mass Effect 2 = instant win for Shepard?

Having played both I will vote for Ellis in a heartbeat. Commander Shepard is little more than an avatar that has a completely customizable appearance and not to mention gender. Ellis is a very likable character who has his own personality. All of the L4D2 characters exchange humorous dialogue with each other throughout the campaigns.

I'm guessing Ellis will lose. Valve support doesn't seem to be too strong here, and the release of ME2 probably will seal it.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/29/2009 9:32:01 PM | message detail
http://www.gamesradar.com/f/the-25-best-new-characters-of-the-decade/a-20091221171910974007

Glad to see Arthas made it. And I'm quite surprised at some of our stronger characters from this decade, like Auron and Sora not make it
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/29/2009 9:40:45 PM | message detail
I wouldn't call Shepard an avatar. Yeah, his appearance and even gender are customizable, and you pretty much control his entire dialogue, but Shepard is still a huge part of the story, and he's got a ton of character and emotional depth that puts him far beyond actual avatar characters like from Oblivion or Fallout 3. Not the most well-developed character, but surprisingly well enough for someone as customizable as him, and enough that people actually care about his fate in ME2.

Or her fate. Up to you.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 12/29/2009 10:06:20 PM | message detail
Good to see 3 Valve characters on that list. All deserve it, although they should have thrown in Ellis as well.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/30/2009 5:51:17 AM | message detail
Got caught up on reading a small part of the last topic and also all of this topic. Something from the last topic I'd like to say something about:

Some initial stats of what to expect in a 12 hour match. First I took the what time do you vote poll.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3333

I looked at the results of each continent using geolocation. I did the same with the what time you wake up/go to bed.


I actually do have poll updates on the "What time you go to bed" poll. For that poll, it was already at 61496 votes by 12:00 PM. Since then, it got 50900 more votes from 12:00 PM-12:00 AM to end at a final vote total of 112396. The important thing to note is that poll was hosted after most schools got off for summer vacation, so the polls would have followed normal weekend trends.

Still not so sure what to expect from these 12 hour matches until it's finally contest time. The night matches might even get more votes than the day matches due to most people being accustomed to seeing new polls starting at midnight rather than noon. And they might not even think to check out the homepage again on the same day. Even if they did check out the homepage again, a possible chance exists that they might not notice a new match up.

A little over 65% of the site doesn't even fill out brackets at all, so you've got tons of people who don't even know about the 2 matches per day thing. It might take a while for this 12 hour match thing to finally catch the attention of the people who didn't even fill out a bracket. Although I'm hoping there's a message on the homepage during the contest about the 2 matches per day thing.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/30/2009 6:55:42 AM | message detail
Interesting stuff. Never expected to see the ASV be that strong.

I imagine weekend matches will have higher votals on average for both matches than weekday matches, and that earlier matches will have much lower votals than later matches. Both are common sense, but still worth pointing out in case anyone wants to make adjustments.

I still don't think trends are going to be worth a damn, and it will be votals and geolocation that determine what happens. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised to see some ridiculous results that we'd never see in a 24-hour setting, or even a four-way. Europe could very well have a much larger influence in certain matches, and though it's been brought out and disproven for four-ways, still gotta bring up the potential of helping cult characters. If that dedicated 28% stays dedicated for L-Block when there's 30-40% less votes, that can only help L-Block as long as most of its supporters still participate in the polls. Of course, L-Block's probably going to lose 30-40% of its support, and even if not its path is set in stone, but such a situation might again skew the results in an unexpected way. But yeah, the casual voters will be the ones missing up, and this will be a battle of the hardcore GameFAQs crowd.

I'm really hoping for some crazy 2002-level results. Probably won't happen, but worth hoping for, since some of the most entertaining contests are the ones where what you least expect to happen does.
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ZFS | Posted 12/30/2009 7:14:04 AM | message detail
I guess there's still a whole day ahead, but kinda surprised that the 360 hasn't gotten over 60% ownership in these polls yet. In fact, the PS3 and 360 are kinda close as it stands now -- 56.68% to 52.76%. Pretty crazy, that gap used to be huge.

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red sox 777 | Posted 12/30/2009 7:22:46 AM | message detail
Yeah, even on weekdays, we generally get about as many votes in the first 12 hours as the second 12 hours. That's easily attributable to the first 12 hours being the first 12 hours though, and if we have 2 12-hour polls instead, the day poll will also reap the benefits of early voting.

It's interesting that back when the polls started at 3 AM, we'd get something like 60% of the total votes coming in during the 2nd 12 hours.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/30/2009 7:38:04 AM | message detail
Well this has been the year of the PS3, even sales wise PS3 has cut the 360's lead.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/30/2009 7:52:05 AM | message detail
In fact, the PS3 and 360 are kinda close as it stands now -- 56.68% to 52.76%. Pretty crazy, that gap used to be huge.

Also considering that 13.91% of voters are planning to get a PS3 in 2010, that means the PS3 might very well overtake the 360 in ownership.
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voltch | Posted 12/30/2009 8:35:38 AM | message detail
but there's still lke a gajillion nails in its coffin right, right, RIGHT?
I wonder how much more the PS3's install base needs to increase by on this site to create stronger characters though.
I mean Nathan Hale and Drake and Sackboy surely can't be the peak?
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Swarles_Barkley | Posted 12/30/2009 8:40:00 AM | message detail
With God of War III, Gran Turismo 5 (arguably the biggest game for Sony this gen, though of course not on gameFAQs) and FFXIII releasing early next year, PS3 sales should catch up to Xbox360 at an even faster rate.

I'm sure PS3 ownership might've passed Xbox360's by next year.
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Swarles_Barkley | Posted 12/30/2009 8:51:32 AM | message detail
And yeah, FFXIII is multiplat, but the PS3 version is getting a lot more hype.
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voltch | Posted 12/30/2009 9:07:05 AM | message detail
no way is PS3 catching up 360 in the US, which is the most important demographic for our polls since they represent the bulk of voters.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/30/2009 9:10:28 AM | message detail
The PS3 doesn't need to catch the 360 in NA for it to have half decent characters.
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Swarles_Barkley | Posted 12/30/2009 9:11:28 AM | message detail
no way is PS3 catching up 360 in the US, which is the most important demographic for our polls since they represent the bulk of voters.

It's closer to the 360 on gameFAQs than it is IRL though, so it doesn't have to to surpass ownership.
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