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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 769

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 12/24/2009 12:29:53 PM | message detail

It's not encouraging that the only time Hayabusa has impressed is in 4 ways
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/24/2009 12:32:40 PM | message detail

Well Ninja Gaiden II was just released last year and it's not like he had a chance to impress since Sora, Zero and Dante are all pretty strong and it's not like Master Chief has looked good in 1v1.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/24/2009 12:33:57 PM | message detail

Chief is one of those characters who can turn 10% from his night to day performance.

The only time this was ever true was in 2007. He managed to do it in his first two matches when he was facing such renowned day vote masters like PaRappa, Vercetti, Yuna, Liquid, and Alucard. He was a little more subdued in his next two matches, though he did manage about 7% jumps with the day vote. But we all know about GAME FUEL by now.

Last year, he managed a 5% jump in demographics in round 1 against Kain (FFIV's day vote is horrendous), Layton (I can't imagine he'd have a good day vote), and Raiden (MGS's day vote is awful as well). He managed 6% against Big Boss, Raiden, and Kirby. He managed 5% against Kirby, Dante, and Leon. So we can see that, while the Chief's day vote is elite, he won't be pulling any 10% day vote swings anymore.

Hayabusa is better during the day than he is at night, but he usually stays at a consistent level once day hits until the end of the match.

While we're at it, let's look at MC/Sub-Zero from 2006. It would seem to be a relatively accurate comparison (1-on-1 against a ninja with a decent day vote):

Time | The Chief | Sub-Zero | Demographic
EBV | 48.92% | 51.08% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 46.96% | 53.04% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 45.53% | 54.47% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 47.98% | 52.02% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 47.84% | 52.16% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 51.72% | 48.28% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 51.03% | 48.97% | (22:00-24:00)

Good thing for the Chief is that he avoids his horrible night vote, where he only managed 45.5% overnight against Subby here. But only a 4% swing once the ASV hit, not an enormous swing.

For the record, from noon to the end of the match, Master Chief outgained Sub-Zero by 1076 votes. Not a huge amount. Hayabusa can win this match, even during the day.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/24/2009 12:36:46 PM | message detail

Wait, am I the only one that thinks Yuna > Tidus?

I've always considered it a possibility, especially since Yuna has FFX-2, but I wouldn't ever pull the trigger on that one, especially with my predisposed bias.

Hayabusa > Chief is some pretty hilarious stat topic overthink if I ever saw it. Chief is higher on the Xbox food chain.

There isn't much to overthink about this one. Chief has disappointed in every contest he's ever been in except for 2007 and maybe 2005. Hayabusa has looked much better the last two years (If you want to argue 4-ways are bunk, more power to you, but I disagree). I'm not sure what XBox has to do with this since Hayabusa isn't XBox exclusive.

Plus, didn't we argue KOTOR had absolutely no chance in the Games Contest last year because it was in the same match with Halo?
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/24/2009 12:36:48 PM | message detail

Also with it being 12 hour polls trends will be different with most notably the night and ASV being weaker.
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voltch | Posted 12/24/2009 12:37:37 PM | message detail

but hayabusa does have some fans from say the original game, a bunch of fighter fans and i guess sigma fans, so if you really overthink it, you could say he has a very different set of voters.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/24/2009 12:44:23 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #200
Hayabusa > Chief is some pretty hilarious stat topic overthink if I ever saw it. Chief is higher on the Xbox food chain. Very simple stuff. Spy has a way better chance of the hilarious upset.

Hayabusa has been around too long and on too many systems to be considered exclusively Xbox, I'd say. Chief also looked like crap last year; Dante had no trouble taking him out despite Leon in the poll; a Kirby/Dante/Chief 3way would have been ugly for the Spartan. Considering Chief has been pretty damn bad in every year where he wasn't powered by hype (the only thing that saved him from disaster in 2005 was DK's rep as our biggest choker), I feel like Hayabusa is not only a fine upset, but a hilarious one if it were to happen. Totally worth it.
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voltch | Posted 12/24/2009 12:47:20 PM | message detail

Is MC involved in any way with Halo Reach or other Halo products?
I mean apart from the whole sixaxis jiggle thing I heard some pretty good things about Ninja Sigma 2.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/24/2009 1:16:52 PM | message detail

LeonhartFour | Posted 12/24/2009 1:23:46 PM | message detail

you and i both know that he gets his strength from Xbox games.

And the fact that he's a ridiculously awesome ninja.

And the PS3 games a little.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/24/2009 1:25:11 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #210
you and i both know that he gets his strength from Xbox games.

And the fact that he's a ridiculously awesome ninja.

And the PS3 games a little.

you mean ps3 ports which sold like ****?
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 12/24/2009 2:37:14 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #207
Hayabusa has been around too long and on too many systems to be considered exclusively Xbox, I'd say. Chief also looked like crap last year; Dante had no trouble taking him out despite Leon in the poll; a Kirby/Dante/Chief 3way would have been ugly for the Spartan. Considering Chief has been pretty damn bad in every year where he wasn't powered by hype (the only thing that saved him from disaster in 2005 was DK's rep as our biggest choker), I feel like Hayabusa is not only a fine upset, but a hilarious one if it were to happen. Totally worth it.

MC has never been bad. Anybody who thought Sub Zero didn't have a chance against MC is fooling themselves. I'd say barely losing to a guy who broke 40% on Auron isn't bad at all, considering in the past MC almost broke 40% on Square characters of similar strength (Aeris, Frog (in THAT year he was strong), Crono. That's just what the Chief does. He barely scrapes by crappy characters because of people anti-voting him, but does well against strong characters because it's still almost the same amount of people who support Square/Nintendo/whatever characters anti-voting him in the other matches. They just hate Halo and refuse to support the Chief, while the rest love Halo and do support him in every match.

Like Ulti said, Ryu H is primarily an Xbox character. I didn't give it a second thought, Chief will win because he's higher on the chain. An upset IS possible, but most people who played NG on the Xbox and thus support Ryu H will switch over to the Chief in the second round. The match will be close as always since it's the MC, but he'll squeak one out by a couple thousand votes. The same people you guys are talking about who will support him because he's on the PS3 now, or because he's a classic character from the NES games... that doesn't matter, because it's those same type of people who you would have counted on to anti-vote the MC anyway.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/24/2009 2:39:18 PM | message detail

I'm not sure Chief is gonna get anti voted as much as he used to. We haven't had a 1v1 with Chief since back during original Xbox days, and original Xbox was very hated here. 360 is pretty much the most popular system on Gamefaqs now (even if Wii has more ownership, 360 always does better on polls), so Xbox characters should be more accepted.
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 12/24/2009 2:42:54 PM | message detail

I dunno, the PS3 has been gaining a lot of ground on GameFAQs. And just because people own a 360 now does not mean they suddenly like Halo. There's still tons of diehards on gamefaqs who call it a crappy, generic, overrated series. I don't think he'll get anti-voted AS MUCH, you're 100% correct in that regard. I just think it'll still be substantial.
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 12/24/2009 2:54:49 PM | message detail

MC has never been bad.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1318
It's not a result that matters today, but there was a time where Master Chief was pretty bad.
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swirIdude | Posted 12/24/2009 3:20:23 PM | message detail

Felix was a sleeping giant that was never given another chance, I dare say!!
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/24/2009 4:47:01 PM | message detail

Anybody taking Hayabusa>Chief is going to get burned by that upset pick. The reasons are simple:

A) SFF. Like or not, Ryu H is an Xbox character, and there's nobody who owns the Xbox as much as Chief.

B) Design overlap. I don't think it's a coincidence that Ryu crushed ultra-kiddy Riku and Roxas, and then beat cartooon badass Zero the year after only to die horribly once Snake showed up. I'm a proponent of character design and appeal being a big part of Ryu's appeal. The guy is quite possibly the ultimate casual bait: his kickass appearance screams "AWESOME BADASS" and makes you want to vote for him, but once a more reknowned badass shows up, he folds. Think of him like a stronger Nightmare who folds to mature badasses instead of anything with casual appeal.

That said, there IS a small shot at it ocurring if Ryu is more resistant than I believe, and I'll be cheering for him all the way.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/24/2009 4:54:09 PM | message detail

How do you not expect to get burned by an upset pick? If there was a good chance of it happening then it wouldn't be an upset pick.

Master Chief was no prize pick in 1v1 and he didn't even look that good last year. Also if Halo is so above everything Xbox KotOR wouldn't have led it for most of the match.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/24/2009 4:55:21 PM | message detail

Also Master Chief doesn't look badass.

Hayabusa > Chief in a badass shot.
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 12/24/2009 5:55:53 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #215
MC has never been bad.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1318
It's not a result that matters today, but there was a time where Master Chief was pretty bad.

Then he got 40% on Aeris, which I mentioned in my post. Do you expect Felix to get 36-37% on Aeris? Rofl...

Like I said, he gets anti-voted to hell and back which always makes his matches close, but I seriously doubt he'll actually let scrubs beat him. Only characters with actual strength (and I'd say Subby is right around that midcarder status) that can get enough actual support in combination with anti-votes will beat him.

From: charmander6000 | #218
How do you not expect to get burned by an upset pick? If there was a good chance of it happening then it wouldn't be an upset pick.

Not really. I'd say just seeing things that other people are missing, and picking against the trend makes it an "upset" pick. People expect one guy to win but you're aware of factors that they are not, and thus make the pick. I rarely make picks just for the hell of making an upset pick and expect to get burned by it but hope to get "lucky". I make a pick based on sound judgment and reason.

Master Chief was no prize pick in 1v1 and he didn't even look that good last year. Also if Halo is so above everything Xbox KotOR wouldn't have led it for most of the match.

KotOR seems to reach beyond the "Xbox vote" if you ask me. It's an RPG for one thing. And it's a really good game that most people acknowledge is good and thus all the anti-voters of Halo would flock to it. Besides that, it came out on the PC just a few months later and tons of people undoubtedly got it for that instead. The modern Ninja Gaiden was on the original Xbox and the sequel on the Xbox 360 before being released to a much smaller PS3 (than the PS2) audience and has modest sales on the PS3.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/24/2009 6:02:18 PM | message detail

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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/24/2009 6:04:24 PM | message detail

Like Ulti said, Ryu H is primarily an Xbox character. I didn't give it a second thought, Chief will win because he's higher on the chain.

Again, we said the same thing about Halo/KOTOR.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3468

We remember this, right? Master Chief ain't gonna "SFF" Ryu Hayabusa. I don't know why in the world anyone thinks that's going to happen.

KotOR seems to reach beyond the "Xbox vote" if you ask me.

Why doesn't Hayabusa? Honestly, Halo and Ninja Gaiden are NOTHING alike. They're just as dissimilar as Halo and KOTOR.

Besides that, it came out on the PC just a few months later and tons of people undoubtedly got it for that instead.

Didn't someone mention this during the Games Contest, and we found out the PC sales weren't anywhere close to the XBox sales?

And if the PS versions of Ninja Gaiden are useless, why in the world did Snake own Hayabusa two years in a row?

(By the way, don't use that as proof that MC will SFF Hayabusa. MC and Snake aren't in the same league)
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/24/2009 6:10:20 PM | message detail

Wow, I COMPLETELY forgot that this Nathan Drake is the same guy who lost to CATS in the last character battle. And he has a 2 seed now? WTF!!!!!!

Oh well, I'm still picking him to win, if only because The Boss is unreliable. I already have Liquid Snake upsetting Altair, BTW.

BTW how well do you think Gordon Freeman does here? Going by the x-stats of the last contest he's the star of the most popular game on the site that isn't Nintendo/Square/Metal Gear, but I would still be darn amazed if he broke 40% on a character who once almost beat Samus. And I'll be voting for him just to joke around.

ffmasterjose | Posted 12/24/2009 6:19:20 PM | message detail

Gordon easily advances, then gets eliminated in the next round by Tifa.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/24/2009 7:11:04 PM | message detail

Ryu H is character design and Xbox support. Character design works against fodder, see Altair and some others, but won't hold up against actual favorites. The thing is, Master Chief is really mixed between favorite and casual bait. Some people like his character, and some just like the guy from Halo. I'm still going with MC though, bigger name, more recognizable, and he does have the Xbox advantage. Ryu H has a chance only because of his character design. Being a ninja can't hurt.

I'm still looking forward to the small chance of Gordon avenging his loss to Tina by beating Tifa. Freeman > TJF.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 12/24/2009 7:11:53 PM | message detail

I'm hoping for a Tifa nose-dive like Aeris did a few years back after looking so strong before.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/24/2009 7:14:41 PM | message detail

Felix's hilarious performance on MC makes me wonder why the hell some of you idiots actually championed known flop Fire Emblem over Golden Sun. Worst ****ing move other than SSB -> Soulcalibur, though at least Soulcalibur made sense as a game to see again, just not over SSB.

And I say that as someone who loves FE and thinks GS is overrated. Really ****ing stupid switch.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/24/2009 7:15:09 PM | message detail

Character design works against fodder, see Altair and some others, but won't hold up against actual favorites.

Worked pretty good against Zero.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/24/2009 7:17:58 PM | message detail

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3119
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3512

Yeah...

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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/24/2009 7:21:12 PM | message detail

I agree, the Fire Emblem/Golden Sun switch was completely stupid and pointless. "Yeah, let's stick Fire Emblem into a completely unwinnable situation since Melee is there, especially after it did so well in getting doubled by FFTA the first time."

Seriously, what
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transience | Posted 12/24/2009 7:22:41 PM | message detail

I can't believe people are saying that Master Chief is a shoo-in to beat Ryu Hayabusa when he struggled to beat Raiden and Kain Highwind. as far as their 2008 resumes go, Ryu Hayabusa is approximately a mile ahead and has more reason to have increased in the past year.

Chief's a fine pick and all, and maybe even the favourite, but Hayabusa could wipe the floor with him if he looks as pathetic as he did last year.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/24/2009 7:25:42 PM | message detail

Chief's a fine pick and all, and maybe even the favourite, but Hayabusa could wipe the floor with him if he looks as pathetic as he did last year.

But what about the XBOX HIERARCHY, which certainly does exist!
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/24/2009 8:11:26 PM | message detail

It'll be a victory for Gordon if he breaks 40% in his final match. Then, in the span of 8 years, he'll have went from 40% on fodder to 40% on Samus's equal!

I dunno what else to say. I'm still shocked that Gordon outseeded Crono.

Oh yeah, and I think Magus will move on to the second round; it's really a tossup between character strenghts but Chrono Trigger > SotN and people will likely want to see Link/Magus again!

Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/24/2009 9:15:43 PM | message detail

Now that LMS brings it up, at least Magus winning would give us a Link/Magus rematch that would be beyond hilarious.

Why do CT characters have the habit of overperforming on their contest debuts?
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/24/2009 9:29:37 PM | message detail

Crono didn't exactly overperform in the sense that he was weaker in the next year.

Neither did Lavos or Marle. Maybe.
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Lightslayer987 | Posted 12/24/2009 9:30:43 PM | message detail

Merry Christmas Stats Topic!
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/24/2009 9:33:29 PM | message detail

Seems like the PS3 was the big winner this christmas.

Nathan to round 3 and Sackboy > Kratos Aurion.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/24/2009 10:03:50 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #237
Seems like the PS3 was the big winner this christmas.

Nathan to round 3 and Sackboy > Kratos Aurion.

Aw yeah, the guy who didn't even get 10,000 votes and lost to CATS last year gets to round 3!

...Or not.

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night!
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/24/2009 10:08:50 PM | message detail

Imagine Uncharted 2 was his only game and I'm sure people would take him at least over The Boss.

Also I expect joke characters to be weaker in 1v1 (too bad Cube/Sandal is a joke match in itself)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/24/2009 10:11:57 PM | message detail

Imagine Uncharted 2 was his only game and I'm sure people would take him at least over The Boss.

Well, there's still that whole issue of PS3 exclusivity to deal with (which is admittedly becoming less and less of a problem, but it still IS a problem), and I wouldn't take him over The Boss on that alone. A lot of people expected Drake to lose to CATS last year. That should tell you enough!

I understand that Uncharted 2 was a lot bigger and better than the first, but it's still not this site's type of game.
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transience | Posted 12/24/2009 10:14:34 PM | message detail

actually, it is. Uncharted 2 is a GameFAQs game through and through. saying that it's not is like saying RE4 is not a GameFAQs game. it's just that Uncharted is not a franchise that inspires loyalty on the level of a Resident Evil or a Devil May Cry. it will take time to build up that loyalty.

Uncharted 2 being so good has been a big step towards turning it into a GameFAQs game. it probably won't be enough, but Drake is a rising star that will resonate with this fanbase.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/24/2009 10:18:41 PM | message detail

So it's RE4-esque then? I admittedly don't know too much about Uncharted (which is pretty bad since I actually own a PS3!). I just know that GameFAQs isn't into games where people use guns as primary weapons with a few exceptions!

Wait, does Drake use a sword at all? This is important.
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transience | Posted 12/24/2009 10:28:31 PM | message detail

nope. Drake gets mostly compared to Indiana Jones.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcioljOY9Ao

he's very likable.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/24/2009 10:32:48 PM | message detail

Oh hey, it's made by Naughty Dog!
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transience | Posted 12/24/2009 10:33:51 PM | message detail

actually, Uncharted 2 most closely resembles MGS4. it's got the same kind of core gameplay but the gameplay is much more cinematic. MGS4 uses cutscenes to tell the story while Uncharted 2 does most of it via gameplay. U2 has much better pacing while MGS4 is more 'epic'. Uncharted 2 is more like an awesome action flick than the gripping story of a super soldier. either way, MGS4 fans should probably play it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/24/2009 10:35:40 PM | message detail

it's got the same kind of core gameplay but the gameplay is much more cinematic.

Yeah, I could tell just from watching that video. It looks like it does a good job of working the cutscenes into the gameplay.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/24/2009 10:37:33 PM | message detail

From: Lightslayer987 | #236
Merry Christmas Stats Topic!

Merry Christmas!
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Lightslayer987 | Posted 12/24/2009 10:46:36 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #247
Merry Christmas!

I hope for this one day we can at least all get along here :3
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/25/2009 1:16:13 AM | message detail

Merry Christmas!

I'm still taking Drake to win because The Boss is unreliable. That's said, and that's it.

On the other hand, let's talk about another fourpack that seems messed up in seeding:

(7) Travis Touchdown
(10) Zelda

(2) Firenze di Ezio (can't be bothered to look up the entire name)
(15) Simon Belmont

I think we all agree that this fourpack will end with Zelda > di Ezio, right? There's no way a character who lost to an SFFd NESS is going to beat somebody who is a decent midcarder at worst, after all! And while I think di Ezio will edge past Mr. Belmont, I think he's doomed after that.

AT LEAST THE MESSED UP SEEDINGS WILL GIVE A BIT OF 2002 FEEL BACK!!!

charmander6000 | Posted 12/25/2009 6:05:53 AM | message detail

I would say Simon > Ezio is the most likely upset to happen in that four-pack, though that's not saying much.
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