GameFAQs Contests

Made a page on the wiki to list all the start times.


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
http://www.boblauer.com/guidette.gif

Sweet.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

Link > Your favorite character (unless that is Crono or Serge).
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

In the interests of discussing something not about Red (who I've decided is probably a massive flop and have Ocelot winning >.>), what would you guys think are the odds of anything not named Link winning? 10/1? 100/1?

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Currently Playing: Okami, Final Fantasy Tactics, Spyro The Dragon

That was a perfect end to the "**** Red '09" stats topic.
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"Not everybody is a perfect person in the world. Everyone kills people, murder people, steals from you, steals from me, whatever." -Ohio State

Just for that I'm starting up this Red discussion again

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

The odds of Link ever losing another contest are pretty low. The only one who could do it is a character who ends up getting rallied for being a joke character or whatever.

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the journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step

Higher, I think. Let's go with 2/7, because that's the fraction of contests he's lost so far, and he looked just as invincible before the 2003 and 2007 contests as he does right now.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Final Fantasy VIII was released on the PSN in North America last week? My mind about Squall v. Auron has been made up.

Sorry Sir Auron

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Submit your entry for The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VIII contest!:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb8_entry.html

An FF7 remake is the only way Link will have a chance of losing a 1v1.
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http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza
"This is all we have... when we die.."

I doubt a FFVII remake would even make much of a difference at this point. The next console Zelda will be out before that ever sees the light of day, and the further away from 1997 you get the worse off FFVII is.

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the journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step

That's why I italicized the chance part. Even with a remake you'd have to consider it'd just be a lot of the same fans who are excited about it.
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http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza
"This is all we have... when we die.."

All you need is a major site shift like 2003 or 2005. It's stupid to pick against Link, but him winning is not a mortal lock. Few things are.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Well, I wouldn't expect any sort of site shift any time soon, but especially not back to Square. That's a boat that sailed seven years ago and probably isn't going to come back.

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the journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step

So what's the story on Nathan Drake/The Boss? Yeah, Nathan looked weak as hell last year but it's not like the Boss is all that strong, and Uncharted 2 got a TON of hype. Even Spike TV gave it GOTY which utterly shocked me.

I have the Boss right now since I think MGS fans will always remember her but she's not big enough for the casuals to vote for her like Ocelot or Liquid.
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http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza
"This is all we have... when we die.."

if we get any site shifts in the future, it would likely be towards western games if anything
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/9/2009/12/500x_ffps3.jpg

Happy day, Contest fans! The 2010 Guru Contest is now up and running- enter your bracket today! Or, if you're still working on it, tag today and enter your bracket in a couple weeks!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52769754

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KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail!
thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

I have a feeling Nathan Drake is going to win that match. Uncharted 2 is so much bigger than the first. But I can't shake the feeling that of the 2-seeds, he's the most likely to get cursed...
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

I mean, maybe if the poll screwed up and somehow misspelled Link a la Danta he might possibly somehow lose. Even then, I wouldn't bet on it. Huh, how bout the engrished Rink vs. Crowd match.

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In my first sig change in years, I salute Krahenprophet, winner of the Guru and of BGE2009. Huzzah!

Were stats ever done for 2008? Trying to find a way to compare Magus and Alucard, but can't find anything.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
This was a triumph.

From: UltimaterializerX | #021
Were stats ever done for 2008? Trying to find a way to compare Magus and Alucard, but can't find anything.

I did some right after the contest was over, but I didn't save them, and I dunno if anyone else did either. I know char made some of his own as well. Well, I guess TRE would have them archived somewhere since I posted them in the stats topic.

But as far as Magus is concerned, he lost to Sandbag last year. That's all you need to know.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

The only ways Link *might* lose 1v1 is one of the following:

FFVII remake for all three consoles (in order of importance: Wii/360/PS3)
MGS5 for all three consoles (same order as FFVII)
Next Zelda Wii bombs (like, Big Rigs level of bad) coinciding with Kingdom Hearts III actually being Mushroom Hearts
Chrono Break getting hyped by Square larger than any Square game in history (needs to have a PS3 release)
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Never forget - 12/10/2009
HOPE

I can't find any 2008 stats either, pretty irritating. I keep using the poll updates on the contests website to make rough guesses.
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http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza
"This is all we have... when we die.."

Tag.
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~AK~ // Merc

you'd honestly be better off making gut guesses than you would looking at any stats for the 2008 contest. they were be a gigantic mess.
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xyzzy

er, would be
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xyzzy

I did some right after the contest was over, but I didn't save them, and I dunno if anyone else did either. I know char made some of his own as well. Well, I guess TRE would have them archived somewhere since I posted them in the stats topic.

These are the most up to date versions I can find:

LeonhartFour - Final Contest Stats
http://www.thengamer.com/stats/Pt601-650/Stats_and_Discussion_Pt644/Stats and Discussion Pt644 Pg1.htm

LeonhartFour - 2008 Final Complete Raw Stats
http://www.thengamer.com/stats/Pt601-650/Stats_and_Discussion_Pt643/Stats and Discussion Pt643 Pg9.htm

charmander6000 - preliminary x-stats
http://www.thengamer.com/stats/Pt601-650/Stats_and_Discussion_Pt642/Stats and Discussion Pt642 Pg9.htm
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Some of the arguments i saw for alucard/Magus seem to be a little strange.
I noticed the some alucard backers, chose him solely because of Magus's usual day vote collapse, but isn't Alucard's day vote, well a joke too, I mean he's like a vampire, when the sun rises, he dies.
Also CTDS has come out since, surely, SURELY europe won't be as bad for Magus?
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Shakes Fist!

I doubt a FFVII remake would even make much of a difference at this point. The next console Zelda will be out before that ever sees the light of day, and the further away from 1997 you get the worse off FFVII is.

Considering Cloud is almost as popular as Link with 1/10th the amount of games, I'm not sure where you're getting this from. A new Zelda wouldn't boost Link nearly as much as a FFVII remake would boost Cloud. If FFVII released on the PS3, properly remade and with a reception anywhere near the original game, I'm sure Cloud could give Link a run for his money for at least a year.
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Champagne after a victory is a nice treat. Champagne after a defeat is a necessity. - Winston Churchill

You have Magus getting 40% on Sonic and Alucard getting 36% on Crono last year.

Considering Sonic's seemingly poor performance that year and some people going with the idea that Alucard suffered from Last Place Factor in that match with Crono, eh... That's the only information you're going to get on them from 2008. Inconclusive
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

This is a day poll, so it shouldn't favor either of them really. Magus gets to skip his worst time (the late night/early morning), which is also Alucard's best. Magus's ASV is probably slightly worse than Alucard's (just slightly) while his opening vote is better. The jury's still out on how much the new daytime opening (12-2 PM) will look like the old opening (12-2 AM).

This is the first test for CTDS.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

If Kingdom Hearts, Advent Children, Dirge of Cerberus, Crisis Core and Dissidia don't give Cloud anything, how would you expect a remake on an unpopular console to?
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

And I have a feeling Magus is going to beat Alucard. This is a classic case of Board 8 over-underestimating someone that had a couple of bad matches.
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

DS is unpopular now?
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

Magus is the new Kefka.
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Not Wylvane

Haha, the PS3 hasn't been unpopular in years, dude. Welcome to 2009.

OK, after my initial fill, checking this place out, I noticed people not liking the joke (WCC/LBlock) characters as much as I seem to have. Was that just a case of people saying "Hey, let's screw up this contest", or have they just dropped? (WCC certainly will, because Portal is old and people don't really talk much about it anymore, but LBlock is timeless)

Also, Roxas strength? I have him going down to Samus, does that sound about right?

(You're all way overestimating CTDS, it sold pretty poorly, if I'm not mistaken, and the people who bought it are the people who owned/ROMed it already anyways)
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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis.

How many times must we say this????

Sales=/=Strength, otherwise CJ and Niko would be nigh on invincible.
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Shakes Fist!

Well yeah, but I'm saying that it didn't attract anyone new. Some sort of weird boost caused by CTDS just seems off, because no one new is playing the game. So why should there all of a sudden be new strength for characters like Frog or Magus?
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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis.

The jury's still out on how much the new daytime opening (12-2 PM) will look like the old opening (12-2 AM).

Yeah, I've been wondering about this too. We still have no idea how the board vote for the day matches compares to the board vote in night matches. A few characters to watch out for:

Cloud/Sephiroth - Best known for their horrible board vote in past matches. With day time matches, their board votes might not be quite as bad due to Europe being able to have an easier time voting during the board vote. With a night time match, it's very difficult for Europe to vote during the board vote. Cloud has night matches for the first 3 rounds, then gets a day match in round 4, then shifts back to a night match in round 5. Sephiroth gets night matches for the first 3 rounds, then 2 rounds of day matches.

Crono - Has one of the best board votes, but he'll have to deal with 2 day matches in the first 2 rounds, so I have no idea how that affects his board vote. Crono still gets 2 1/2 hours of the DSV though in the day matches, which is his second best time period after the night vote.

L-Block/WCC - Night matches for both of them in the first 2 rounds, but both end up getting a day match in round 3. Both characters strike me as the ones that would perform better with the board vote if the match started at midnight.

Charizard/Pikachu - We've seen the insane Pikachu board vote in action before, especially against L-Block last year. I can only assume Charizard would share this insane board vote like Pikachu would. Both get night matches in the first round and then get a day match in round 2.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

Dante boosted from DMC2 a game everyone hated, sub zero beat MC thanks to a lame MK game that came out close to the match, these things have happened so many times before goddamnit.
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Shakes Fist!

Well games coming out close to the match is a whole other story... you have people voting who otherwise wouldn't even have visited the site.
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~AK~ // Merc

Magus is the new Kefka.

How so?
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.

The main reason you would expect CTDS to have a big impact is that Crono was and is by far the most obscure member of the Noble Nine. The 521st Mario game is going to do almost nothing for Mario, even if it sells well, because everyone already knows who he is, but CTDS is Crono's first appearance in a game since 1995 (2001 if you count the Playstation port).

As for Magus/Alucard, most people seem to consider them roughly even in 2008, before CTDS.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

And actually, now that I look at it again, Alucard really didn't do badly in his round 3 match last year. He got a bit under 36% on Crono, which is about the same as he put up on Auron 1v1 in 2006. 39% on Pikachu may seem embarassing, but this wasn't the normal Pikachu in this match, it was a Pikachu being heavily bandwagoned to destroy L-Block. Alucard started out very badly in that match, but after the early vote (during which everyone knew he was guaranteed last place, and the focus was on Pikachu/L), he recovered for the rest of the match and finished respectably.

It's probably about equally as good as Magus's 40% on Sonic and loss to Sandbag.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

If Kingdom Hearts, Advent Children, Dirge of Cerberus, Crisis Core and Dissidia don't give Cloud anything, how would you expect a remake on an unpopular console to?

Just like MGS4 didn't do anything for Snake, right? An FFVII remake would be a lot bigger still.

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Champagne after a victory is a nice treat. Champagne after a defeat is a necessity. - Winston Churchill

Link will get an OoT remake announced at the same E3. It's just how it goes with those two.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

An OoT remake would be a bad move by Nintendo. A lot of people consider it to be the best game ever made and a remake could reverse that notion.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380

People are really overestimating the need for a new game to reach out to a new audience to cause a boost. If 0% of a new game's audience is new fans, there'll probably still be a small boost just from the old fans seeing the characters again and coming to the site more. If 10% of a new game's audience is new fans, you're probably going to see a pretty sizable boost. Note that no Zelda game will ever reach that 10% mark on this site ever again, because of how popular Zelda already is.

That's also why it won't be easy for an FFVII remake to put Cloud over Link again (after thinking about it, it probably will unless it flops or Square ruins Cloud's character or something like that). It's not that the game won't be huge, because it will. The difficulty lies in how popular FFVII already is.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

I honestly don't know if comparing Alucard to Crono is good. He only did 3% better than Amaterasu and suddenly it doesn't look as impressive. Then you have 40% on Pikachu looking worse than 40% on Sonic.

But they're still pretty close either way.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.