GameFAQs Contests

A mite early, but I have to mention my 14-0 COLTS BABY. REGGIE WAYNE FROM THE U.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
http://www.boblauer.com/guidette.gif

It's all about THE U
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW

oh sup
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KrahenProphet_rocks
"This topic is now about Renee Walker aka Rack Bauer." - LostHisHardcore

THE U, THE U, IT'S ALL ABOUT THE U
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"Every man lives. Not every man truly dies."

From the previous topic:

Speaking of Game Fuel, is that WoW Game Fuel still being sold?

I think so. I haven't seen any 12 packs of that stuff at all during the past 3 or 4 weeks. It's a limited flavor and is only available in the US. Canada doesn't get this stuff.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

I know Canada doesn't have it.

Just that this contest Arthas is without his Game Fuel and we all know what happened to Master Chief.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380

I know Canada doesn't have it.

A real shame. And it just isn't the Game Fuel stuff, but every other flavor of Mountain Dew besides the original flavor. This also means the Game Fuel commercial wouldn't have been on TV on Canadian channels. This was the commercial:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gh-QQ5G-e3g

Which I've seen on TV before.

Just that this contest Arthas is without his Game Fuel and we all know what happened to Master Chief.

Game Fuel might still be on the market as of right now, because I did buy some of this stuff about a month ago. This stuff first hit the market back in the early part of June and it's now 6 months later, so I'm guessing all production of Game Fuel has stopped by now.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

What was the % of Diablo versus Kefka?
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SK Mason? No way is a host that stupid.
Sir Chris

Diablo got 54.09% on Kefka
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380

Oh man, Arthas is going to stomp Kefka.
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Why does Final Fantasy 7 win every year? Geesh you'd think people would give Zelda a try.
Sir Chris

Diablo got 54.09% on Kefka.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Well Diablo did have a link from Diaboii.net or whatever that site was and if you believe in it there's also the bandwagon effect. I still think Diablo (or Ridley >_>) would have won that match.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380

I don't understand how Kefka keeps getting so much support every year. At least with Magus, I can point to past contest glories while stubbornly taking him in debatable matches every year.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Well, Arthas' popularity and game popularity is peaking at the moment with the patch that you finally get to kick his ass being out. Arthas is a rising star.
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Dragon Quest V is awesome
Sir Chris

Kefka is loved on this board and will always be supported. I remember for the most part of the Vercetti/Kefka match people claimed that Vercetti's comebacks were a sign of cheating rather than Kefka's stalls.

Arthas on the other hand has one of the worst board votes, it's on par with Kratos and almost as bad as Cloud/Sephiroth.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380

Kefka would beat Ridley.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

I still think Arthas is a bit inflated due to fourways. I wouldn't be too surprised if Kefka wins that, and he should definitely come out of the gates with a lead.
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xyzzy

Kefka/Vercetti is still one of the greatest contest matches of all time.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Kefka would beat Ridley.

Not if Ridley defeated Diablo as planned.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380

So a new match would be starting right now. Weird!
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

I wish they went from 3-3 instead of 12-12.
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xyzzy

Looking at my schedule next term I'll be missing the beginning of every match except on Tuesdays and weekends. Heck I won't be able to see the results on Thursdays until at least four hours after the match started.

With that said, expect the board vote to be somewhat weaker in the day matches (besides weekends)
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380

I wish they went from 3-3 instead of 12-12.

That would be perfect, I'll only miss the beginning on Thursdays.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380

These matches are going to fly by so quickly.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

That'll be fine, the last three divisions in the first round are extremely boring.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380

Unless I'm on vacation or just forget, I should be able to catch all 127 starts. Hooray for no school and a flexible job.
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Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

i'll be missing half the starts, damn europe.
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Shakes Fist!

I'll miss most of the day starts. that's fine though, not a huge deal.
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xyzzy

I should be around for pretty much all of them as well.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

well, it's not a huge deal so long as someone gets a hold of creative so sc2k5 works without a hitch.
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xyzzy

I am feeling pretty comfortable about my round 3 picks except these areas:

Bottom of the Chaos Division is a mess. I assume Vivi makes it to feed Rikku... but am curious what's the going trend.

Mushroom Div... Yuna > Ryu H.... right??

Heart Division- feeling pretty comfortable about Bowser>Sora and Kratos>L-Block. But these joke ones always screw me... they are like penny stocks, or Furby's or... you know... fads... point is- why not go for HK-47 the same way L-block joked its way through?

Sackboy - So I think this is his first chance to establish himself. Not only is the game all over the place - he is pretty iconic for the PS3... I know that isn't saying much, but he is also cute as hell. Anyway - He is my gable - have him losing to Dante in the 3rd...

And lastly - Poor Chrono... I think a shortened voting time is really going to hurt him... alas, I am still picking him to make it to Sephi....

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Dream3ater: I've played every FFgame from I-XII and I barely payed attention to the story in any of them...There are a ton of people like me

Not if Ridley defeated Diablo as planned.

Well, no kidding. If Ridley was strong enough to beat Diablo, of course he'd beat Kefka.

But when you do worse on Diablo than a Tales of Symphonia character, you're awful. Kefka would beat Ridley.

And there are certain matches I'm glad are only twelve hours. 24 hours of Link/Thrall? I'll be okay without that. It's gonna be the close matches I wish would last for 24 hours.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

You are heavily overestimating the FFX strength if you think rikku or yuna is making it past round 1.
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The difference between arrogance and confidence is confidence acts rather than speaks.
Sir Chris

thrall is gonna go all warchief on links pansy ass
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/9/2009/12/500x_ffps3.jpg

Yeah, Link blowing people out is always fun to watch, but maybe not for 24 hours.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

wait Ryu H? Ryu above MM?
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Shakes Fist!

I don't see Rikku beating Kirby. If Tidus couldn't do it, why Rikku?

Yes, I understand there are arguments for Rikku actually being stronger than Tidus, but it's a push at best.

I think Yuna's got a realistic shot at beating Zack. It just all depends on what you really think of Zack.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

Rikku's NEVER beating Kirby. Dude came close to Villains Bowser, who very nearly defeated Snake. Vivi, meanwhile, is facing Altair, who has an excellent day vote, with his sad ASV.

Yuna is probably the underdog to beat Zack at this point. Zack impressed the last couple years, and while Yuna is a proven midcarder, picking her seems iffy.

Bowser, beating Sora? Chyeah, right. He's been on a freefall lately, while Sora is strong as always. Kratos is most likely beating someone else, too.

Sackboy has to contend with the TOS vote, which is pretty decent when it comes to low tier matches. Don't see him winning there.
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Placeholder anti-capslock sig.

bowser only came close to snake because of that damn pic.
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Shakes Fist!

From: voltch | #039
bowser only came close to snake because of that damn pic.

Maybe, but even so that's just 2% at best. This means Kirby came close to a character that might have defeated Vincent or Squall easily had he met them (if you assume Crono was weaker than Snake, which seems likely) and given the bottom 3 of the Noble Nine a big scare or possibly a loss. Any way you wanna look at it, Bowser impressed there and Rikku has no chance against the Kirbster.
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Placeholder anti-capslock sig.

Then Bowser was meh the very next year and looked as good as Luigi.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

Why would you assume Crono was weaker than Snake in 2005? They both faced Mario, and Crono scored about 3.5% higher on Mario directly.

Snake's picture troubles are also well documented- just look at Snake/Frog and Snake/Yoshi. I agree that Kirby is out of Rikku's league though.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Is there going to be a guru contest this year?
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Good Times,
Great Memories

From: red sox 777 | #042
Why would you assume Crono was weaker than Snake in 2005? They both faced Mario, and Crono scored about 3.5% higher on Mario directly.

Snake's picture troubles are also well documented- just look at Snake/Frog and Snake/Yoshi. I agree that Kirby is out of Rikku's league though.

Frog/Snake is a result that still makes no goddamn sense, yes (I have a feeling that was a case of massive bandwagoning, because Frog was obviously nowhere near that value later on), but Snake/Yoshi was about right when you up Snake's % a couple points.

And I've got a feeling that, if you pitted Snake vs. Crono, Crono would lose there. He was coming off of two big matches where he won pretty clearly, and heading into a Mario/Crono final. Hype and a big-game feel probably made him overperform there.

I wouldn't be surprised if Crono was genuinely stronger than Snake that year, though. It still makes his collapse the following year incredibly surpriing. :-/
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Placeholder anti-capslock sig.

Crono overperformed? Are you sure? He beat Vincent by 55% while Snake beat Zelda by 55%... Vincent is definitely stronger than Zelda as the next year showed. Plus he actually beat Mega Man. It's hard for Snake to reverse a Mega Man win after one year.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

From: MarioSuperstar | #045
Crono overperformed? Are you sure? He beat Vincent by 55% while Snake beat Zelda by 55%... Vincent is definitely stronger than Zelda as the next year showed. Plus he actually beat Mega Man. It's hard for Snake to reverse a Mega Man win after one year.

Well, how would you explain Crono going on to lose to Sonic the next year, otherwise? Sonic did not boost, and even if you assume Crono got a matchup that somehow magnified his weaknesses, that reverses a result that happened the year before pretty clearly.
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Placeholder anti-capslock sig.

Frog/Snake is a result that still makes no goddamn sense, yes (I have a feeling that was a case of massive bandwagoning, because Frog was obviously nowhere near that value later on), but Snake/Yoshi was about right when you up Snake's % a couple points.

A couple of points? In the stats, Yoshi was only a couple of points behind Sonic/Megaman/Crono, about even with Vincent, ahead of Squall/Auron/Ganondorf, and far ahead of Bowser and Luigi. It was more than just a couple of points. When you see the same thing happen 3 times, you can blame the picture. Of course Frog probably overperformed by more than Yoshi did because of bandwagoning or whatever, but the picture effect was still big.

And I've got a feeling that, if you pitted Snake vs. Crono, Crono would lose there. He was coming off of two big matches where he won pretty clearly, and heading into a Mario/Crono final. Hype and a big-game feel probably made him overperform there.

I wouldn't be surprised if Crono was genuinely stronger than Snake that year, though. It still makes his collapse the following year incredibly surpriing. :-/

You're applying post-Brawl intuition to a 2005 match. Snake was always weaker than Crono, and was the weakest member of the Noble Nine in 2004 and 2005. Then Snake was announced for Brawl, he had a massive boost in 2006, and the rest is history.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Well, how would you explain Crono going on to lose to Sonic the next year, otherwise? Sonic did not boost, and even if you assume Crono got a matchup that somehow magnified his weaknesses, that reverses a result that happened the year before pretty clearly.

The most likely thing is that Crono dropped a couple of points in 2006. He was only projected to beat Sonic with under 52% in 2005, and besides, the entire bottom half of the bracket was extrapolated through Crono, so if Crono was overrated, Megaman, Sonic, Vincent, Squall, Tifa, etc. were all overrated.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Well, I rethought Kirby, and if he wins round 1 then he is all the way to Sonic. Yeah, I can accept that.

Zack is a joke, and hopefully Yuna beating him in this contest will put him where he belongs.

And Bowser can beat Sora... Both of them get crushed by 9ers, and even though you can argue Bowser is "declining", I think he will be more resistant to time than Sora is. Just not sure if it has been enough time for Sora to have dropped enough. It's a fun bet and I'll take it...

And you are prolly right on Sacboy, but I still disagree - LBP is aging beautifully, and I think is more mainstream than some TOS character.


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Dream3ater: I've played every FFgame from I-XII and I barely payed attention to the story in any of them...There are a ton of people like me

A PS3 exclusive more mainstream on GameFAQs? You act like it's guaranteed.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.