GameFAQs Contests

..............!

if the top seed is an odd number, night match.
if the top seed is an even number, day match.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Amazing final post.

And yet MacMillan made the contest last year, not Soap.

You know, this is actually a REALLY good point.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

And Tidus gets like, what on Mega Man today? 37/38%

Tidus couldn't break 33% against Megaman back in 2004. They've both fallen since then; Tidus probably does a little better than 33% now but not much.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

I'm just projecting on what I remember last year in through semi-rematch.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

It's also debated that 2004 was his best year anyway which doesn't make Tidus look all that bad even with 34/35%

But 2004 Mega Man is for sure > 2006 Mega Man if you ask me.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

Wouldn't 2002 be Mega Man's best year?
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If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer!

Soap didn't make the bracket last year, yet he gets a 3-seed this year, showing he was among the top 24 characters nominated? There was no nomination drive for him here either....which makes me think Modern Warfare 2 was responsible. I think the time of year nominations were held (November-December) may also be in part responsible....Ezio, Altair, Nathan Drake.....these are not your typical Gamefaqs 2-seeds.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

I think no one's really sure what happened in 2002. Would Cloud have beaten Sephiroth? Did Link SFF Mario hard, or would Sonic have beaten Mario? Or was it the elusive WDF?
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Tidus couldn't break 33% against Megaman back in 2004.

He got 35.22% in 2004, actually.

And are we forgetting that Tidus faced Mega Man last year? He got 38.40% based on raw extrapolation there.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW

From: red sox 777 | #007
Soap didn't make the bracket last year, yet he gets a 3-seed this year, showing he was among the top 24 characters nominated? There was no nomination drive for him here either....which makes me think Modern Warfare 2 was responsible. I think the time of year nominations were held (November-December) may also be in part responsible....Ezio, Altair, Nathan Drake.....these are not your typical Gamefaqs 2-seeds.

If Bayonetta had not been delayed for three months, she would have gotten a 2-seed. Bitter ironing.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

He got 35.22% in 2004, actually.

Huh.....so he did. Somehow I remembered that MM pulled off the doubling and HM predicted it and the MM > Link bandwagon was in full swing....Link was the one who pulled off the doubling on Megaman, not Megaman on Tidus.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Wow, I had no idea Phoenix only managed to get 60% on Geno when he's being owned by Bowser.

That is pretty bad.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

Geno's decent fodder. I wouldn't expect Phoenix to own the guy.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

Yeah it is, makes me more confinent in switching to Jecht.
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I fell in the Guru Contest, because KrahenProphet was there.
GENO WHIRL!

Hey Lopen, I can still see your posts!
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SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590
According to the Krahenprophet, Dweebenheimer!

Mega Man 10 boost? Is this a consideration?

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~Wigs~ A little bit of fake hair goes a loooong way!
Happily Married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 05

Ehhhh, I doubt it, honestly.

How well did MM9 sell again?
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW

MM9 sold pretty well for a downloadable game. I don't know the numbers exactly, but it's at least 500k across the three consoles.
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If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer!

Did MM9 even have an effect last year?
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

Mega Man is the favorite against Cid as is. If he can beat Cid, I don't think he'll have problems with Zack or Master Chief. He gets killed by Mario MM10 or not.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

MM9 sold pretty well for a downloadable game. I don't know the numbers exactly, but it's at least 500k across the three consoles.

Considering Mega Man games average 200k, that's pretty good.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380

Switching gears: Sonic/Ganondorf/Kirby.

Sonic's looked terrible the last two years, and managed to lose to Auron - whom Ganondorf beat comfortably before KHII - and the Kirbster himself last year.

Ganondorf did pretty well in the first round of the last two years but looked terrible everywhere else while being glued to Luigi and Samus.

Kirby is the weirdest fourway entrant ever, being a key factor in L's run and losing to Naked Snake before beating Sonic and then SFF'd Sephiroth while pulling 42% on Cloud.

Last 1v1 contest, Sonic was comfortably above Ganondorf and way ahead of Kirby.

Thoughts?
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

Is there any match where a MM10 boost would even really matter?

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the journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step

Link vs Ganondorf quarterfinals please win Sonic.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

Link/X --> Link/Luigi --> Link/Ganondorf --> Link/Mario

Let's do this
---
Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

I took Sonic to beat Ganondorf and Kirby without much of a struggle. Yeah, Sonic lost to Auron, and Ganondorf beat Auron, but that was 2005 Ganondorf. I don't take anything he or Bowser did in SC2K5 seriously because it's obvious they were on Villains Contest steroids and overperformed like crazy. He hasn't really looked like a Noble Nine breaker since. Vincent beat him pretty comfortably, and he didn't really beat Luigi in round 2 as comfortably as I would think he would have needed to in order to beat Sonic. Remember, Sonic got 60% on Luigi in 2006, and in 2007, Ganondorf only got 52.50% on him. Yeah, it's hard to take either Luigi/Ganondorf match seriously because of Mudkip in round 2 and Bacondorf in round 3, but either way, he wasn't that impressive. Sonic's probably not as strong as he was in 2006, but I doubt he has a tough match with Luigi, really.

As far as Kirby, it's pretty obvious that he was on bandwagon 'roids when he met Sonic. The way Naked Snake utterly destroyed him in round 1 is too hard to ignore. I mean, even if you gave Kirby ALL of Lucas' and Jinjo's votes, he only gets 52% on Big Boss. Unless you think Big Boss beats Sonic (hey, I'm game if you are), Kirby doesn't beat Sonic. Plus, Kirby only beat Chief by 1.5% in round two, and the Chief ain't beatin' Sonic either. I mean, he was only 5% ahead of Big Boss despite an old man pic plus Raiden weighing him down. It's pretty obvious Big Boss is stronger than Kirby, at least to me.

Speaking of Big Boss, he gets Mario in round two. How well do you think he does, especially with a Naked Snake pic? Think he can break 40%? Do you think Big Boss could give the lower Noble Niners or near-elites a run for their money?
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

I think Sonic is weaker than he was in 2006, but maybe not as bad as the 4-ways showed us. I don't think Ganondorf has really been capable of pulling off a win against a Noble Niner, even Sonic, since 2005. In 2006 he was projected to lose to Sonic with 45-46% or so, and it should be closer now, but I think I'll keep Sonic there.

Kirby.....I've been back and forth about this all day, but I just switched back to Sonic. That 60-40 win of Sonic's over Luigi right after Luigi beat Kirby comfortably is too much, as much as I want to take Kirby based on last year and this format. Kirby gets to make use of his top-line ASV, and his top-line early vote takes up a larger share of the overall votes, while Sonic is denied his beastly Europe vote which also happens to be Kirby's biggest weak point. But none of that will matter if it's an Ulti-style blowout.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 12/16/2009 10:51:50 PM | #022
Switching gears: Sonic/Ganondorf/Kirby.

Sonic's looked terrible the last two years, and managed to lose to Auron - whom Ganondorf beat comfortably before KHII - and the Kirbster himself last year.

Ganondorf did pretty well in the first round of the last two years but looked terrible everywhere else while being glued to Luigi and Samus.

Kirby is the weirdest fourway entrant ever, being a key factor in L's run and losing to Naked Snake before beating Sonic and then SFF'd Sephiroth while pulling 42% on Cloud.

Last 1v1 contest, Sonic was comfortably above Ganondorf and way ahead of Kirby.

Thoughts?

I stand by the fact I think 4ways in general greatly weaken Sonic, even if the characters normally wouldnt really SFF him 1v1. I'm thinking too broad in a bad sense. Though its probably just delusion.

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~Wigs~ A little bit of fake hair goes a loooong way!
Happily Married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 05

The facts do show straight up Sonic does MUCH better 1v1, if you discount year to year strength changes
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~Wigs~ A little bit of fake hair goes a loooong way!
Happily Married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 05

I actually just switched to Ganondorf after looking at their first round matches last year. Ganondorf did better on Frog than Sonic on Magus. I don't think Frog and Magus are terribly far apart these days...to support that, they both did almost exactly the same on Samus and Mario (respectively) in 2007.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

I still take Magus over Frog without much thought, and I don't think it'd be that close.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

what kinda percentage does Captain Price need on MMX for people to consider Soap to have a chance to beat Big Daddy
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
Vote Vault Boy!

Unless Captain Price falls below 10% or breaks 30% or something, I don't think it's really going to change anyone's views on Soap/Big Daddy.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

How popular is Price relative to Soap?
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: Team Rocket Elite | #034
How popular is Price relative to Soap?

I'd say probably bout the same... He is your partner in all the missions in MW1, and has some pretty popular one liners and an epic mustache. He plays Soaps role in MW2, basically
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
Vote Vault Boy!

Oh yeah, I just realized.....Link probably isn't going below 70% until Mario, and if he can do what he did last year there, he may not go below 65% until the final against Cloud. And with so much Nintendo SFF flying around, plus a night match and whatever's left of that magic he used to overperform on Link in 2003, Magus might end up #2 in the x-stats for the first 2 divisions! Just gotta beat Alucard!
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

From: LeonhartFour | #026
The way Naked Snake utterly destroyed him in round 1 is too hard to ignore. I mean, even if you gave Kirby ALL of Lucas' and Jinjo's votes, he only gets 52% on Big Boss. Unless you think Big Boss beats Sonic (hey, I'm game if you are), Kirby doesn't beat Sonic.

I'd take Big Boss with a Naked Snake pic over Sonic instantly.
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"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw

From: LeonhartFour | #031
I still take Magus over Frog without much thought, and I don't think it'd be that close.

Magus (2007c) has a strength of 21.17 against Base Link.
Frog (2007c) has a strength of 20.25 against Base Link.

Magus 52.17% 69,661
Frog 47.83% 63,858
TOTAL VOTES 133,519
Magus wins with 52.17% of the vote!
A 5,802 vote margin of victory.

That's fairly close if ya ask me, and that was two years ago. The difference is probably even less now.
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"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw

Man screw four way x-stats. I didn't even know people took them seriously.

Magus, even after losing to Knuckles, is still at least higher than Frog. Although they may be closer than I think, I don't think they're equal.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

Soap is going to murder Big Daddy, then get his ass kicked in by Geno. Bioshock 2 is supposed to be this "big" release, but I haven't heard a peep about it. I guess all the tools that liked the first one finally realized what a piece of crap it was.
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

This is what Turtle actually believes.
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif

Can't believe there's already 700 more posts. Yikes. I'll have to catch up with them tomorrow, if I can manage it at all.

Meanwhile, bracket time. Going through by division (I know, I know, so two topics ago...):

Hyrule: Damn, didn't realize what a mess the four-pack at the bottom of this division was. I have no idea who makes it out of there, and I literally have Cube getting to Round 3 right now. Good thing it'll only cost me 3 points when it doesn't happen. The rest of the division is pretty boring to me, because 1) I don't have Pokefear and 2) I don't have any faith in Magus at this point. Him beating Alucard isn't even an option to me.

Chaos: Best division for sure. You could argue just about every first round match. Vivi vs. Altair looks tough to me too, assuming Altair even makes it there (I've got him winning both matches at the moment). And of course, let's not forget Sonic. I sincerely believe he's at risk in every round but 2, and right now I've got him losing to Kirby.

Mushroom: Mega Man's four-pack is great. Who knows how strong he is, and who knows how strong Zack is (I refuse to believe Yuna has no chance). Smart money's on Mega just barely making it to Mario, and that's where I've got him for now. Rest of the division is boring, barring Bacon accidentally posting pics of Solid Snake for Big Boss.

Heart: Almost as good as Chaos. The whole bottom half of the division's up in the air. Like I said earlier, I have no faith in L-Block 1v1 and very little Pokefear, so I've got Kratos beating HK-47 of all people to make the finals. As for the top half, at least it's got a couple of good matches in Round 1; I'm listening to logic for Arthas, but ignoring it for Neku.

Varia: Roxas and Tidus both worry me. I'm taking Tidus for now, but I'm not sure either of them can even beat Sub-Zero. As for the bottom half, I've got Zelda crushing Jecht (yeah, over Phoenix, but just barely) before giving Samus a heck of a fight. I still say she might even win that fight...but it's not what's on my bracket.

Midgar: I've got the top option winning every single match in this division. (Not the top seed, the top option, meaning Riku and Ryu in Round 2.) That has absolutely 0 chance of happening, but those are the results that make sense to me. I can't see Dante taking Ryu after SF4, and I can't see Falcon taking Riku even after Brawl. I don't even buy Kratos and MacMillan over Sackboy and Chris, though I could get behind them a lot faster than Falcon and Dante here.

Gear: Another boring division, barring the Squall/Auron showdown. I've got Squall for that one, but I may change my mind later. About the biggest upset I have here is Terra over Darth, unless you count 5-seed Pikachu over 4-seed Shepard. I'm hoping Fenix can make things interesting against Zero during the day, but I'm not holding my breath.

Jenova: A travesty. Just two simple swaps (Crono with Gordon, Vincent with Ness) and you've got a much better chance for fireworks. As it is, the most exciting four-pack is the one with CoD4 in it. I've actually got Soap winning both his matches before getting mauled by Tifa. If the game has even one entrant who won't crash and burn, it's the main character, right? (Why yes, I am blatantly ignoring Tidus and Auron, thank you for asking.)

Finals: Link, Mario, Cloud, Snake, Link, Cloud, Link. Yawn. Well, except for Snake beating Sephiroth. That still has a shot at happening, right? I sure hope so, because that's what's on my bracket and I'm sticking to it.

Overall, not as good a bracket as I thought at first glance. The 2-match-a-day gimmick should make up for it, though, so I'm still really looking forward to this one.

(I refuse to believe Yuna has no chance)

Good man.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #040
Soap is going to murder Big Daddy, then get his ass kicked in by Geno. Bioshock 2 is supposed to be this "big" release, but I haven't heard a peep about it. I guess all the tools that liked the first one finally realized what a piece of crap it was.

No on cares about BioShock 2 since it's being made by a different developer and looks like crap.
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http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/8159/boxarts2.jpg

Soap is going to murder Big Daddy, then get his ass kicked in by Geno.

uh... i dont know where to begin with this one
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
Vote Vault Boy!

If Magus/Frog happened, I just know Magus would collapse at the end and Frog would pull off his heroics somehow.
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Demyx is better than Axel.

I don't even know how I'd vote in Magus/Frog anymore. It was obviously Magus always, but now.....
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

uh... i dont know where to begin with this one

The best place to begin is not beginning. That's what I did.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

sometimes i wonder if turtle lives in an alternate dimension
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
Vote Vault Boy!

Leon has the right idea here.

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the journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step