GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 764

LeonhartFour | Posted 12/15/2009 6:36:15 PM | message detail
Which means he doesn't lose to round 3. HK-47 and Isaac/Layton sure aren't well known enough.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/15/2009 6:39:14 PM | message detail
So uh, where does everybody expect our same joke guys, Cube and L-Block to be? Are their paths pretty much set?

Both of them are set to make it to round 3. Cube has night matches all the way up to the semifinal (which is the start of 24 hour matches), though it won't make it that far. Cube has to face Luigi in round 3 and Luigi is going to suck overnight, but Luigi should pull off the win pretty easily. Even then, the Cube has to face Link (which would be awesome to see in action) in round 4 and no way the Cube gets past Link.

L-Block is a lock to defeat HK-47 in round 1 because HK-47 should suck overnight and L-Block has night matches for round 1 and 2. In round 2, L-Block wins another match because Isaac will suck overnight. Then L-Block gets a day match in round 3 against Charizard/Kratos and either one of them will have a good day vote.
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xp1337 | Posted 12/15/2009 6:39:16 PM | message detail
I think that if L-Block and WCC don't lose in Round 1, they make it to Round 3 and lose to Kratos/Charizard and Luigi, respectively.

The only Round 1 question for the both of them is if they're capable of getting over 50% in a match, or if they had a ceiling, but because we had 4-ways, it worked out well for them. If they can pull in 50%, then they should be able to get by until they run into significant resistance at Round 3.
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HaRRicH | Posted 12/15/2009 6:41:35 PM | message detail
Okay, FINALLY caught up on everything. I've looked over the bracket twice now, so here are some thoughts that I've not heard much on:


--First off, Ness...I really want to take him because he's facing Geno, but he's failed me every time except against Jak. This is probably the first pick I've made purely off of the principle. I know you guys are happy to hear it.

--Sackboy's beating Kratos Aurion. Sackboy had no games released last year and was in a poll with Solid Snake post-MGS4 (as well as Vivi and Wesker) yet still got ~10%. Kratos Aurion had ~17% in a poll Alucard won, and he took last place despite Captain Falcon LFF/SFF'ing Diddy Kong. Sackboy's now has two games instead of none and will not have Solid Snake to deal with. Sackboy's not going to be great, but Kratos Aurion flopped last year despite Diddy Kong flopping in his same match. Sackboy has this.

--Squall/Auron should be great -- I figure Squall will be the favorite though Auron has looked better in several different (though not necessarily definitive) ways. I wonder if the time of day will matter much there.

--Red's predictable here for a unpredictable character. Not that Charizard doesn't have a good match with Kratos right now, but switching Red and Charizard would have given more opportunities to take advantage of Red's range.

--Zack/Yuna, YES! This is gonna be great. I'm taking Yuna since I don't think Zack will hold up as well to a character with a legitimately solid fanbase instead of Cecil or Zidane. Zack looked about like Aeris last year and he's a year removed from CC:FF7 now. Yuna was nearly even with Aeris against Zelda and was the star in one (two?) major console FF-games. It's hard to bet against FF7, but it'll be fun trying this time.

--I've wanted Hayabusa/MC for awhile because of the Xbox-connection, and I think Haybusa can take it. It's already been mentioned that Halo may not be held that high by Xbox-owners here, but I didn't see anybody mention the most recent example of this: Halo barely edged out SW:KotOR. The NG-series aren't that accepted here, but NG was the runner-up to Halo 2 in 2004's Xbox-GotY and NGS was the 2005 Xbox-GotY...so he's got a place there. If Hayabusa's already naturally stronger than MC, MC's mascot-status may not be enough to overturn it.

--Dammit SB, you should have switched Fox and Banjo! Fox/Pika would have been a MUCH better match than what we have there.

--Vincent might have the biggest blowout in the contest -- he's getting Guybrush in the daytime. At a glance, the only ones that will compare is whatever SFF-matches Mario gets with fodder (Falco and probably Ike).

--I'm not psyched about Sephiroth/Solid right now, but if Solid can impress and/or Seph doesn't look so hot, my excitement will rise quickly. Solid should have faced Mario/Samus first.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/15/2009 6:54:49 PM | message detail
First off, Ness...I really want to take him because he's facing Geno, but he's failed me every time except against Jak. This is probably the first pick I've made purely off of the principle. I know you guys are happy to hear it.

Ha, and I'm taking Ness!

I really want to take Geno though.

And I think Kratos struggled last year because he's pseudo-Nintendo. That's just a guess though.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/15/2009 6:57:46 PM | message detail
Sackboy isn't going to be any stronger than he was last year. LBP wasn't exactly a big hit.

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therealmnm | Posted 12/15/2009 6:59:56 PM | message detail
Ha, oh wow he actually did 2 matches a day? Now trends potentially become a factor... Ah well, I'm not really paying much attention to this one. I'll fill out a bracket and call it a day. Have fun guys!
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therealmnm | Posted 12/15/2009 7:00:50 PM | message detail
Oh and I was gonna complain about him using ANOTHER FF reference for the contest picture but that picture is hilarious and awesome.
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HaRRicH | Posted 12/15/2009 7:06:49 PM | message detail
It was probably the #4 or #5 game in last year's GotYs if you look at the original-GotY, plus he's got the PSP-game too. Considering he had NO games, two games on different systems have to make him look a bit better now.

Haha, we always tend to argue when ToS is in the picture though and you got me in BGE2 when ToS advanced, but I still doubt Sackboy's gonna be in Kratos Aurion's reach.
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paraboxx | Posted 12/15/2009 7:07:21 PM | message detail
1v1.

Awesome.

The day/night thing could cause some problems, though. I know that some characters do better at night than in the day, though I've pretty much forgotten which ones. Hopefully the fact that there's only two options per poll will mean it doesn't come up too often. Good thing this isn't another 4-way, eh?

I haven't been around much, obviously, so I have no idea what's been said in the last few topics. I haven't even filled out my bracket yet, heh. I'm trying to limit my comments a bit until I do, so for now, let's take this by threes:

Good Matchups

- Sonic vs. Lightning: hahahaha, this is classic. Biggest opening round for a 1-seed since Halo/Starcraft. Sonic probably takes it, but I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't...
- Zack Fair vs. Yuna: I'm not a big fan of first-round SFF matchups, but this isn't Mario vs. Falco. These are two solid midcarders whose strength we really can't be sure of, since Zack's had one contest and Yuna missed last year. I'll pick Zack, but I'll be rooting for Yuna, heh.
- Ryu vs. Dante, Round 2: be great to see how far we've come in six years. I'd've given this to Dante no question before SF4, but now who knows? Then the winner gets Leon, which could be another great match.

Bad Matchups

- Mario vs. Falco, Luigi vs. Meta Knight, Ganondorf vs. Mewtwo, Riku vs. Ramza, and Auron vs. Aeris: gotta love those first-round SFF-fests. Most of the victims deserved better, too.
- GlaDOS vs. Fawful: for pretty much the same reason. There's enough overlap between these internet memes that I won't trust either result. I'll take Fawful, but only because he's Nintendo.
- Snake vs. Proto Man, Squall vs. Akuma: They also deserved better. Of course, the counter-argument for most of these people is that if they deserved better, they would've won better seeds. Still, I wish things had turned out differently.

Upset Specials

- Cid Highwind: if he can beat Mega Man (and I wouldn't put it past him), he probably goes all the way to Mario.
- Zelda: I've got her making it to Samus. Hell, she might even beat Samus, if Spirit Tracks is well-received and Other M doesn't get any more trailers.
- L-Block: I don't have faith in L-Block in 1v1 matchups, but this is really the best path it could've hoped for. Near-fodder, near-fodder, 2-seed it's already beat, weakest 1-seed. By then the momentum would have built up and...hoo boy.

Shockers

- Vincent down to an 8-seed? Really? Oh how the mighty have fallen. Honorable mentions go to Mega Man and Crono, who couldn't even beat out Ezio in the noms.
- Phoenix Wright a 3-seed. Behold the power of Board 8. (And still he draws an FF character in Round 1. I think Bacon's doing it on purpose.) Honorable mentions to Captain Falcon and Sackboy, who I was sure were midtier and fodder respectively.
- All the Call of Duty characters. None of whom I know. Honorable mention to Nathan Drake, who I really should know by now but still have to check the alt-text for every time. Gaming has really passed me by these last few years...

Should be a good one, no question. Don't know if I'll be here daily for this one, but I'm sure I'll check in at least once in a while. I'll try to be less of an ass this time too, heh.

Now to go play catchup for two hours...
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/15/2009 7:08:52 PM | message detail
nominations during the time MW2 came out helps with getting in CoD characters
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/15/2009 7:09:20 PM | message detail
It would be an upset if Zelda didn't get to round 4. Seriously, when your best competition is Jecht or Phoenix Wright, you've got it easy.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/15/2009 7:10:34 PM | message detail
And the thing with Sackboy is that he's only on the least owned platforms on the site (PS3 and PSP), and I have serious doubts about how well he can do with that. It's the same reason I'm taking The Boss to beat Nathan Drake.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/15/2009 7:13:46 PM | message detail
How much bigger is Littlebigplanet compared to Uncharted?
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 12/15/2009 7:14:14 PM | message detail
How much bigger is Littlebigplanet compared to Uncharted?

it isn't bigger.
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HaRRicH | Posted 12/15/2009 7:16:21 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3360

LBP's only GotY without MGS4.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2986

Plus whatever Uncharted does this year in the GotY-polls.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/15/2009 7:17:39 PM | message detail
Eh, not much to go off of then. I'm leaning towards Kratos, though.
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HaRRicH | Posted 12/15/2009 7:19:15 PM | message detail
Anyway, the comparison is different because Sackboy's a much more accepted character than Drake. Sackboy could have arguably beaten Drake last year despite not having a game and he was the first character to make it in a contest without a game because of his design and marketing. Drake will improve with Uncharted 2, but likewise Sackboy will improve with getting his first two games.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/15/2009 7:20:41 PM | message detail
LBP's competition in that poll is terrible though.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/15/2009 7:21:43 PM | message detail
We will never see a successful PS3 character.. let alone PLATFORMING PS3 character.

This is just smelling like failure already.
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HaRRicH | Posted 12/15/2009 7:28:11 PM | message detail
Yeah, but based off of that poll it should beat any game from last year outside of SSBB/MGS4/FO3 and maybe GTA4. That's also bigger than a lot of platforming games in recent years. The PS3/PSP-aspect does scare me, but they're both growing lately -- especially the PS3 -- and I'm not afraid to take a chance on take a "chance" on it. Maybe I just got burnt too badly on Kratos Aurion last year, but I've been digging Sackboy's chance to improve a lot this year too. Kratos Aurion is definitely within his range, at the least, and I'm interested to see if it's even close or if Kratos Aurion really was messed up by Nintendo...even if it's just CF and Diddy.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/15/2009 7:32:17 PM | message detail
I'd say he was. It's pretty clear that he guy's stronger than Lloyd, and he almost beat HK-47. Would you take Sackboy over HK? Well, if I would, I wouldn't feel like it'd be a convincing win either way.


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HaRRicH | Posted 12/15/2009 7:37:26 PM | message detail
Probably not convincingly, but probably. I'm not impressed if you're affected by CF or Diddy much at all though, especially if you get last place compared to them when you have the least in common with them. If Kratos Aurion was affected by them though, the match does becomes admittedly tougher, but I'd still probably take Sackboy over HK-47. He's no pillar of strength himself.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/15/2009 7:47:25 PM | message detail
Is Zidane/Ike a night match or a day match?

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Xeybozn | Posted 12/15/2009 7:49:02 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #274
Is Zidane/Ike a night match or a day match?


It's a day match.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/15/2009 7:49:30 PM | message detail
Is Jecht going to be worth something? Is he rarely in the game or anything?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/15/2009 7:50:11 PM | message detail
Oops.

Thought it could be debatable if it was a night match, but...yeah. 60-40 result right there, FFIX has an awful ASV and Ike has an amazing one.

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HaRRicH | Posted 12/15/2009 7:52:18 PM | message detail
I never played FF9, but -- while I get why Vivi is liked for the most part -- I never got why Zidane wasn't very liked.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/15/2009 7:52:49 PM | message detail
Yeah, Ike has one of the best ASVs around. At night, Zidane's got a great shot. That's a match where the time of the match might actually matter.

From: MarioSuperstar | #276
Is Jecht going to be worth something? Is he rarely in the game or anything?


It's hard to say how much he is going to be worth. He did pretty decently in the vote-in though.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/15/2009 7:53:39 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #278
I never played FF9, but -- while I get why Vivi is liked for the most part -- I never got why Zidane wasn't very liked.


I don't either. Zidane's my favorite guy from the game.

Well, I can guess that it's probably because he's very little like Cloud and Squall (though this doesn't hurt Zack!). Plus, FFIX wasn't the most popular to begin with.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/15/2009 7:56:38 PM | message detail
Zidane is well-liked among the fanbase, it's just that FFIX isn't that big on GameFAQs.

And pretty much everyone loves Vivi. It's not an iffy 'fan favorite vs. main character' thing, he's just a really good character. I love Zidane, but I would never vote him over Vivi.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 12/15/2009 8:00:51 PM | message detail
2006 matches where night/day would have made a difference:

Sonic/Crono - Crono wins a night match by 1350, Sonic wins day match by 3300
Peach/Jill - Jill wins night match by 550, Peach wins day match by 600
Sub-Zero/Chief - Subby wins night match by 3500, MC wins day match by 1000
Kairi/Claire - Claire wins night match by 50, Kairi wins day match by 4500
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/15/2009 8:07:19 PM | message detail
So basically it has to be opposite trend guys that are within a % or two?
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Just Some Person | Posted 12/15/2009 8:08:22 PM | message detail
Not a big fan of 1-on-1.

I do look forward to Laharl taking down a Square character though.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 12/15/2009 8:09:23 PM | message detail
Pretty much, yeah. Plus some of the night voters will vote in the day and vice versa, so it's going to be dampened a little further.
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Spark Mandrill | Posted 12/15/2009 8:09:36 PM | message detail
Except Laharl is going to lose that match.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/15/2009 8:11:37 PM | message detail
I honestly don't know what to expect out of that match either. It's just ugggh.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/15/2009 8:13:04 PM | message detail
So basically it has to be opposite trend guys that are within a % or two?

Yup and trends will probably be a bit diluted too. Basically unless you think the two characters are near equals, time of day probably won't matter much.
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transience | Posted 12/15/2009 8:26:33 PM | message detail
okay, finally caught up. there is a lot to parse here, so I'll just say that I approve of the format and applaud Allen for a solid idea. our trends are going to be pretty jacked up and it'll make the contest fresh for us.

I can already tell that Pokemon is yet again going to be talked about ad nauseam. thankfully we've got the GOTY polls for the last two weeks of brackets to shut everyone up a bit.

lookin' forward to this contest -- the last two contests sucked for brackets and while this bracket could certainly be improved, I like what I see.

oh and Moltar, are you doing a Crew? I fear trying to write up 127 matches in two months.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/15/2009 8:28:05 PM | message detail
I asked Moltar about the Crew, and he's planning on doing it.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/15/2009 8:36:57 PM | message detail
Hmmm, I'm conflicted this year. Normally I make my bracket and don't second guess my first instincts, but first instincts could be very very wrong this year, given a further shift in tastes and 3 years since the last 1v1. Next few weeks should have some interesting discussions.

HaRRicH
Posted 12/15/2009 10:52:18 PM
message detail I never played FF9, but -- while I get why Vivi is liked for the most part -- I never got why Zidane wasn't very liked.


Zidane spends a third of the game sulking like a tool and is generally a cocky, arrogant douchebag. So he's basically Squall, without the badass character design.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/15/2009 8:38:05 PM | message detail
And Moltar, for the crew, maybe it would be cool to have a Day/Night challenge. Split the crew into 2 groups, then take the top half of each crew into the final 2 rounds. Something to do as a change of pace while reducing the load on guys writing.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/15/2009 8:40:02 PM | message detail
Well 1v1 does have the advantage of having more matches with less to write about.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/15/2009 8:41:39 PM | message detail
zidane is a pimp though
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/15/2009 8:49:07 PM | message detail
So what's Squall doing to the cube in that picture?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/15/2009 8:53:17 PM | message detail
Zidane sulks for two short scenes in the game, both in disc 3.

From: charmander6000 | #295
So what's Squall doing to the cube in that picture?


Hugging/Holding it.
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Calintares | Posted 12/15/2009 8:53:53 PM | message detail
2006 matches where night/day would have made a difference:

you forgot Tifa/Samus
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/15/2009 8:54:23 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure Samus was leading by noon.

Did Tifa take the lead at all? If she did, it was very briefly.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/15/2009 8:54:35 PM | message detail
Nope, Samus had the lead by noon again.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/15/2009 9:03:43 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3698&region=PH

Someone is afraid of western gaming.
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