GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 762

KamikazePotato | Posted 12/12/2009 9:43:40 PM | message detail
Blue Rogues - ATTACK!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2009 9:44:12 PM | message detail
BEHOLD...

PIRATES' WRATH
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"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Gr8CyberMonkey | Posted 12/12/2009 9:45:13 PM | message detail
Cupil > CATS
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The question to everyone's answer.
Meeks54 | Posted 12/12/2009 9:45:22 PM | message detail
This contest has lost all credibility.

Poor Cats
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New York Yankees, 2009 Major League Baseball WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS
red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2009 9:45:30 PM | message detail
Crono > Mario
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
Meeks54 | Posted 12/12/2009 9:46:04 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #005
Crono > Mario





Crono>Link.



BELIEVE
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New York Yankees, 2009 Major League Baseball WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2009 10:18:42 PM | message detail
Odds CATS finishes last? Mordecai's less than 100 votes behind now.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/12/2009 10:26:14 PM | message detail
I won't even mind having L-Block back now that I know he's not an auto-win.

Since L-Block hasn't shown up in any of these vote-in polls, I could only assume it has gotten enough nominations to be locked into the bracket already. And I'm sure CATS has way less casual support than L-Block. WCC is also another character that I'm sure has already be locked into the bracket.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2009 10:28:20 PM | message detail
Let's hope L-Block is the only inanimate object we have in the bracket this year and the others are gone now that the jokes got smashed last year.

As for L-Block, pair him with Link in round 1. It's the match he deserves to get as contest champ, and the one we all wanted to see.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/12/2009 10:28:48 PM | message detail
we need a return of WCC imo
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2009 10:30:18 PM | message detail
We need more Chrono Trigger characters. Has one ever failed to bring interesting matches? Other than Lavos I mean, but no one remembers the Villains Contest anyway.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 12/12/2009 10:31:09 PM | message detail
Marle's match was pretty non-interesting.
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 12/12/2009 10:32:02 PM | message detail
Lavos vs Mother Brain was kinda interesting since it was the match that knocked CJayC off the leaderboard.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2009 10:33:41 PM | message detail
Oh right, the only thing less interesting than the Villains Contest.....the Female Bracket. No wonder I forgot about it!
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/12/2009 10:34:26 PM | message detail
and that Ayla vs. Walter Cronkite match

wooo that one was close
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a hobo dressed like Santa Claus stole my sig and my mother
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 12/12/2009 10:37:09 PM | message detail
*Looks at stats*

Thrall > Kerrigan what

But Im wagging my finger at all those who didnt vote CATS
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/12/2009 10:37:49 PM | message detail
and that Ayla vs. Walter Cronkite match

Non-existent match. I used the poll searching feature on GameFAQs and nothing came up for that.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 12/12/2009 10:38:38 PM | message detail
Luster I think you must have misspelled something.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/12/2009 10:40:04 PM | message detail
I did not misspell anything. I copy and pasted the character names from GrapefruitKing's post when I did the search for those 2 characters using the poll searching feature.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
FFDragon | Posted 12/12/2009 10:40:06 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 12/13/2009 1:37:49 AM | #017
Non-existent match. I used the poll searching feature on GameFAQs and nothing came up for that.


TFTL
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 12/12/2009 10:40:41 PM | message detail
Walter Cronkite is quite a character.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/12/2009 10:41:21 PM | message detail
So Akuma has cut 32 votes last 2 updates. Seems he'll take the lead over night.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 12/12/2009 10:42:05 PM | message detail
I did not misspell anything. I copy and pasted the character names from GrapefruitKing's post when I did the search for those 2 characters using the poll searching feature.

please tell me this is subtle Luster humor that Luster is known for
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/12/2009 10:42:13 PM | message detail
Walter Cronkite is quite a character.

Apparently a real life person too:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Cronkite

He would be ineligible for the contest.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
ZFS | Posted 12/12/2009 10:43:07 PM | message detail
Akuma

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Big Bob | Posted 12/12/2009 10:43:58 PM | message detail
Thanks for that, Luster.
Lopen | Posted 12/12/2009 10:46:51 PM | message detail
Akuma > MK possible huh? Awesome
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
HaRRicH | Posted 12/12/2009 10:54:23 PM | message detail
Somebody's been had.


I mean, I love HaRRicH and all, but Doc Louis? Seriously man, why?

I wanted to have a rally for a long time, Punch-Out!!'s cool (both the original and remake), he was part-joke, and I thought that could be the most fun rally I could hold. It was never about contest-strength, trust me (not like anybody will argue there).

Time to start looking for a better rally next year...!
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 12/12/2009 11:01:30 PM | message detail
AKUBA > Spaniard I can see
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
HaRRicH | Posted 12/12/2009 11:06:25 PM | message detail
Also, while I think it's damnable that CATS won't be in the bracket this year, if it can't do any better than tenth place here and is getting half the percentage he got in every previous match...I mean, I guess there are just that few people who care anymore. As already mentioned, CATS hasn't been that funny or successful in years (other than beating Nathan Drake, so at least he's leaving with a bang...?) and we've got several far more popular joke-characters. CATS came in a time when he was the only joke allowed, and -- while he paved the way for others -- the people have spoken.

Damn you, people.
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Lopen | Posted 12/12/2009 11:07:29 PM | message detail
Super Macho Man would've been a pretty cool rally

I would've gotten behind that
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
HaRRicH | Posted 12/12/2009 11:12:33 PM | message detail
I couldn't have, his gray hair kills me; release the BOGUS was cool though. I also thought about Glass Joe, but he seemed too much like a joke. In hindsight, Don Flamenco could have been cool too.

Doc just speaks so much more and he has your back, plus he had a fad for whoever liked it, so he felt like the best choice for me!
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/12/2009 11:13:07 PM | message detail
***** stole mah bike
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 12/12/2009 11:14:20 PM | message detail
I wouldve gotten behind a Don Flamenco rally
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/12/2009 11:16:02 PM | message detail
I just thought of something scary

What if its tag teams and we get a tag team of Master Sword and Buster Sword
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/12/2009 11:16:26 PM | message detail
CATS had his moments, but frankly, he hasn't really accomplished jack **** other than his hilarious match with Ansem. It's not as funny anymore watching him get 10% on whoever he faces. Plus he was made further irrelevant by fourways and actual strong joke characters.

Nobody remembers AYB anymore, and though it's nice trivia that he's the only character to be in every single main bracket including the Villains Contest, he's due to be retired. He's just not that funny anymore.
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Not Wylvane
Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/12/2009 11:16:58 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #035
I just thought of something scary

What if its tag teams and we get a tag team of Master Sword and Buster Sword


Master Sword/Buster Sword vs ? Block/Cardboard Box, go.
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Not Wylvane
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/12/2009 11:22:17 PM | message detail
CATS hasn't been that funny or successful in years (other than beating Nathan Drake, so at least he's leaving with a bang...?) and we've got several far more popular joke-characters. CATS came in a time when he was the only joke allowed, and -- while he paved the way for others -- the people have spoken.

Yeah, we definitely have several other joke characters that are stronger than CATS. I can think of L-Block, WCC, and Mudkip. ? Block would definitely be way stronger than CATS if it could make it into the bracket. Same with Goomba.

I hope the contests don't come to the point where we have no more joke characters in the bracket. I guess it's refreshing to see like 1 or 2 joke characters in the bracket instead of Tales fodder and other really bad turbofodder.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
Gaddswell | Posted 12/12/2009 11:35:56 PM | message detail
And Jack Frost passes CATS.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/12/2009 11:36:37 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52635389

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
transients | Posted 12/13/2009 1:14:51 AM | message detail
Akuma aw yeah

this is the last poll, huh? looks like everyone else that was questionable is safe.
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xyzzy
UItimaterializer | Posted 12/13/2009 1:29:43 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | Posted: 12/13/2009 1:28:20 AM | #009
Let's hope L-Block is the only inanimate object we have in the bracket this year and the others are gone now that the jokes got smashed last year.


How to spot someone that hasn't played Portal yet.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/13/2009 1:30:05 AM | message detail
I seriously can't believe CATS is getting thrashed so badly. What an absolutely terrible result.

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paulg235 | Posted 12/13/2009 1:49:39 AM | message detail
So how many do you think we'll see get in?

A) Winner of each poll, 6 entrants
B) Top 2 of each poll, 12 entrants
C) Top 3, 18
D) Top 4, 24
E) Top 6, 36

If we're looking at seeds, 12 and 24 are multiples of 4 (as is 36 but I'm not believing 36 will get in via vote-ins). Futhermore, 24 is a multiple of 8. So it seems like D is the most likely option. B's also likely, though the number of nominees in each poll being 12 leads me to believe that 2 is too small of an option.

The top 4 of each poll seems like the safe bet. Anything else raises the question "Why have 12 options when only 1/2 of them will enter the bracket?".

Also, good to see Akuma doing well. I wanted him to return to the contest ever since he came close to Aeris in 2007.

As for CATS, it was only a matter of time until the novelty had finally worn off. I think this is the last we'll see of CATS for a while in these contests.
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UItimaterializer | Posted 12/13/2009 1:51:07 AM | message detail
I'm hoping it's A or B and a 1v1 bracket, but I doubt it. Best bet is D.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2009 2:44:59 AM | message detail
It better at least be B so Jecht gets in. Beyond that, I don't care. Jecht is the only one of those characters in any of these polls I absolutely want in the contest.

Thrall has taken 3rd place overnight. Interesting. Akuma's less than 100 votes behind Meta Knight, but I doubt he catches him because morning is coming. He should be safe from Peach though, who passed Marth for 3rd.

CATS is 33 votes away from being in last place.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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Gaddswell | Posted 12/13/2009 3:34:22 AM | message detail
And CATS is in last!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/13/2009 4:34:58 AM | message detail
Ha Kosmos has passed Marth. I wonder how long that will last
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/13/2009 5:03:46 AM | message detail
Anyone remember Marth's morning vote last contest? He could probably catch up to Thrall.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/13/2009 5:12:14 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #049
Anyone remember Marth's morning vote last contest? He could probably catch up to Thrall.


http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3277&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

I don't see anything special about that morning vote... unless you're counting the one against Duke, Niko and Kefka, characters all with horrible morning votes
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