GameFAQs Contests

You know, if Yuri Lowell gets into one of these polls he's going to do very well. He's the definition of having a hardcore fanbase who adores him, is the only Tales character that everyone (who has played the game) loves, and no match pics helps him a good bit as his design is...not so great.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

You know you don't have much of an argument when you only quote part of someone's point. Hell, you didn't even copy the entire second sentence of my post. My point is, Ridley is the only Nintendo character in the poll (Doc Louis is and always will be useless turbofodder) and Spy has the benefit of a niche fanbase which really helps in a 12-way poll.

Now let's forget this and start basing projections on the results. Jecht vs Fox, who ya got?

You know you don't have an argument when you only selectively respond to certain posts.

Ridley was also the only Nintendo character in the poll when he did worse on Diablo than Kratos Aurion. What now?

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch

From: WiggumFan267 | #300
The thing is, wouldn't you already expect a lot of these characters to have no problem making a field of 128?
In particular:
Liquid Snake
Sub-Zero
Frog
Axel
Maybe Rikku/Protoman? Though they didn't make it last year I suppose...

This leads me to believe it might only be 64. How could at the very least Liquid and Subby be on the bubble?

just because they're strong doesn't mean they are characters who get tons of noms. Like Axel missed last year, and Protoman hasn't made it in years, and Rikku didn't make it last year either. Only one that seems like a lock would be Liquid there
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
Nominate Vault Boy!

Who are the bastards that didn't nominate Frog enough. Come out here so I can remind you of the awesome matches he gives us
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Like Axel missed last year, and Protoman hasn't made it in years, and Rikku didn't make it last year either. Only one that seems like a lock would be Liquid there

Exactly. Seeing Protoman and some other characters on the bubble is a strong indication that there will, in fact, be at least 128 characters.
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Champagne after a victory is a nice treat. Champagne after a defeat is a necessity. - Winston Churchill

If it ends up being only the winner that makes the contest, then Frog will have eliminated the following characters from contests:

Liquid Snake (twice)
Master Chief
Rikku
Riku
Midna
Axel
KOS-MOS
Plus lots of fodder

His losses are to:

Snake
Samus (4 times)
Ganondorf
Scorpion

Pretty impressive for a low midcarder!
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

Strange, I'd say just the opposite. You seem to mess up by assuming overlap more often than not.

Besides, the burden of proof lies on those who claim overlap anyway.

I guess technically speaking, there is overlap in every match- all you need is one voter who likes both characters. As long as everyone has equal overlap with everyone else though, we observe no overlap, so what we're talking about is differences in the level of overlap between characters.

Now, if we randomly pick 3 characters, A, B, and C, it is pretty unlikely that the overlap between A and B will be the same as between A and C. Even if we do not know which relationship has more overlap, equal overlap is unlikely, because the overlap between 2 characters is generally going to be different from that between 2 different characters..

You're right that it's rather hard for us to predict which pair has more overlap though, so on a practical level, perhaps we do guess overlap wrongly a good portion of the time. Doesn't mean it's not there though, or that we shouldn't try, and it has yielded results in many cases. It's usually just a matter of intuition or qualitative reasoning- we don't have stats for it- but it doesn't have to be random guessing either. You can see why Nintendo and Sonic characters are likely to overlap, and you can see why classic Nintendo games like Mario 3 and Mario World are less likely to impact each other than more modern Nintendo games like SMG and Brawl- because Mario 3 and World overlap a lot with everything, and hence not that much more with each other than with their other competitors.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

soooo

Spy has gone from 9.6% to 9.95% in 3 updates

somebodies having fun
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
Nominate Vault Boy!

and spy just cut subby but about 40-50 there
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
Nominate Vault Boy!

60 vote cut for Spy there on subby... this isn't normal stuffing. This has to be a Steam rally or something
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
Nominate Vault Boy!

A more normal update for Spy that time. Did they run out of steam just before passing Ridley?
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Another thing was during the rally, 2 of the updates got over 400 votes per update. No updates since 1:05 AM got over 400 votes in a single update. No way would we be getting 400 vote updates this late into the ASV if it didn't already occur earlier in the ASV.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

Spy and Ridley are now tied
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
Nominate Vault Boy!

*looks at the updates*

LOL at Spy with a 101 vote cut on Ridley. It only took 50 minutes for Spy to take down Ridley's 512 vote lead to tie things up.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

spy is on the up and up
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My Japanese alter-ego.
Butz: FFV, not Larry.

You know you don't have much of an argument when you only quote part of someone's point.

Because I wanted to speak directly to only one line in particular? If you think I missed something so improtant tell me.

There's nothing "impressive" about Protoman's performance in comparison to what we saw of him before, and the recent Mega Man drop after.

I don't have much to say outside of that.

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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

This is amazing. 33% updates for Spy. And another massive one that was 30.70%.

If there was a Steam rally, it started between 6:06 PM and 6:11 PM (EST) since that's when Spy jumped from a 13.35% update to a 30.70% update.

Spy's number of votes per update since the start of the rally: 128, 89, 110, 134, 105, 91, 49, 40, 61, 52, 44, 49

Spy only got 43 votes on the update right before the rally started. Spy seems to have fallen back down to Earth again, but is still making gains on Ridley.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

A more normal update for Spy that time. Did they run out of steam just before passing Ridley?

I don't think Spy has run out of steam yet. Spy just came close to approaching a 20% update that time.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

Steam rally back online again. 28.93% update for Spy.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

I don't think Spy has run out of steam yet.

ha
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, KrahenProphet

Aw hell yeah.

Gordon Freeman 2010 Contest Champ.
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Not Wylvane

Spy has cut 107 votes off Jecht's lead since Spy and Ridley were tied. Overall, Spy has cut off 541 votes from Jecht's lead since the rally started.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

aw yeah Spy

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

From: WiggumFan267 | #300
The thing is, wouldn't you already expect a lot of these characters to have no problem making a field of 128?
In particular:
Liquid Snake
Sub-Zero
Frog
Axel
Maybe Rikku/Protoman? Though they didn't make it last year I suppose...

This leads me to believe it might only be 64. How could at the very least Liquid and Subby be on the bubble?


Well yes it would be weird to see many of those people miss a 128 character bracket (although as has been mentioned, that has already happened to Rikku/Protoman/Axel), but the theory we're going with right now is that while those guys were on the bubble, it's a very large bubble. Something along the lines of 92 locked into the bracket with 72 behind them on the bubble. The best 36 earn spots in the Contest, taking us to 128.

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KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail!
thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

Yeah, this is just a big bubble. I'd randomly guess 13-16 seeds in a 128 bracket, so 4 days of 8. 6 days of 6 would also work for 12-16 seeds. Really, anything that divides 4 is good.
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RPGuy netbook remix

Wait, 6 days of 6 would have 4 12 seeds locked in and 4 at large, which seems a bit weird.

Well, whatever, I'm sure we're getting a lot in for each poll (or a lot of polls, but I'm not sure how many more 12 character sets Bacon can come up with).
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RPGuy netbook remix

If it's 4 days and the top 8 advance, the characters in the polls are 97th to 144th in terms of nominations. That's 13th to 18th seeds.

If it's 6 days and the top 6 advance, the characters in the polls are 93rd to 164th in terms of nominations. That's four 12th seeds, 13th to 20th seeds and four 21st seeds.

If it's 8 days and the top 4 advance, the characters in the polls are 97th to 192nd in terms of nominations. That's 13th to 24th seeds.

The weaker you think the low end is, the more days we'll get.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

10 minutes until the next batch, assuming there is a next batch of course.
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Not Wylvane

what a group this is...
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Moltar Status: In despair.
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

61 votes in and maxwell and emil still don't have a vote

lawl
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
Nominate Vault Boy!

Worst overall batch. Good lord.
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif

AHAHAHAHAHA TAILS > AERIS

Love the LFF between the two FF7 characters.
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Not Wylvane

you know they're weak when TAILS is leading
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
Nominate Vault Boy!

Godot was totally winning when I voted for him. He'll crash, but still.

And I really think only one character from each poll is advancing into a 1v1 field of 64. It says "character", singular, right there in the poll's wording.
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http://wp.advancednflstats.com/nflarchive.php?year=2009&team=IND&gameid=54609

god damn LFF

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

Also, holy mother of Christ do Random ToS Character #84 and Maxwell suck. I figured Maxwell could at least get 3% or something.
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Not Wylvane

From: UItimaterializer | #334
Godot was totally winning when I voted for him. He'll crash, but still.

And I really think only one character from each poll is advancing into a 1v1 field of 64. It says "character", singular, right there in the poll's wording.

Thats because you only choose one.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
Nominate Vault Boy!

Already Cid, beat Aeris and show them you are the stronger FF7 character!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

haha Emil and Maxwell, get these outta here

it'll be funny to see FF7 place 1-2 today. lots of whining imminent. Tails will probably crash down hard. who the hell wants to see Simon?
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xyzzy

....TAILS?
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Never forget - 12/10/2009
HOPE

From: UItimaterializer | #334
Godot was totally winning when I voted for him. He'll crash, but still.

And I really think only one character from each poll is advancing into a 1v1 field of 64. It says "character", singular, right there in the poll's wording.

If Aeris and Cid get snubbed in favor of Tails, it'll be worth missing out on so many other awesome characters.
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Not Wylvane

When Tails is winning a poll, something has gone horribly wrong.
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Nominate Jack Frost from Shin Megami Tensei!
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52301744

I thought Morrigan might be stronger -sigh-
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
Nominate Vault Boy!

Also, go Simon!
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Not Wylvane

Aerith Gainsborough (Final Fantasy VII) 12.2% 5
Chun Li (Street Fighter II) 9.76% 4
Cid Highwind (Final Fantasy VII) 12.2% 5
Emil Castagnier (Tales of Symphonia) 0% 0
Godot (Phoenix Wright) 12.2% 5
Little Mac (Punch-Out!!) 9.76% 4
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) 0% 0
Miles 'Tails' Prower (Sonic the Hedgehog 2) 7.32% 3
Morrigan (Dragon Age: Origins) 4.88% 2
Prince of Persia (Prince of Persia) 9.76% 4
Simon Belmont (Castlevania) 9.76% 4
Sol Badguy (Guilty Gear) 12.2% 5
TOTAL VOTES 41

That's at the time I voted. Wow, Emil Castagnier and Maxwell suck with the early board vote. Considering both of them are from games that Board 8 loves, that's pretty strange to see.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

seriously, why is there a character from Tales of Symphonia Gaiden in a poll
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xyzzy

From: transience | Posted: 12/11/2009 12:03:51 AM | #339
haha Emil and Maxwell, get these outta here

it'll be funny to see FF7 place 1-2 today. lots of whining imminent. Tails will probably crash down hard. who the hell wants to see Simon?

Simon is the best character in this batch, son
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http://wp.advancednflstats.com/nflarchive.php?year=2009&team=IND&gameid=54609

both of them are from games that Board 8 loves

ToS2 is not a game Board 8 loves.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
Make me a perfect lie.

are you serious allen

you put two ffvii characters in the same

okay yeah that tears it he's literally got a mental illness
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"He scored four at Anfield, he scoooored four!"
http://img.metro.co.uk/i/pix/2009/04/arshavincelebrateR_450x300.jpg

Also, it says "character" because you're only voting for one character. Doesn't mean there may not be more added per poll.

Still expecting it to be top 2 for each poll.
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Not Wylvane