GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 760

UItimaterializer | Posted 12/8/2009 9:51:23 PM | message detail
IF ARCHER HAD A MATCH PIC HE WOULD WIN BECAUSE HE IS SECRETLY DANTE



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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`.,,.`.,,.`.,,.~*ST*~.,,.`.,,.`.,,.
TurnTurnTurn your brain in.
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/8/2009 9:51:46 PM | message detail
Best stats topic opening ever

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
UItimaterializer | Posted 12/8/2009 9:55:41 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | Posted: 12/9/2009 12:51:46 AM | #002
Best stats topic opening ever


fUNNY WAY OF SPELLING "sECOND BEST TO pART 402"
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"Truly, if there is a god of destiny, he is fond of plot twists."
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 12/8/2009 9:56:22 PM | message detail
Caps lock'd
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If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer!
UItimaterializer | Posted 12/8/2009 9:58:51 PM | message detail
Too busy making KP crack up on AIM with it, SQUALL IS THE HOTTEST CHARACTER EVER AND I MELT WHENEVER HE SPEAKS IN DISSIDIA
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Lopen best poster ever? Yes.
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2009 4:59:56 AM | message detail
As well anyone should.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/9/2009 6:06:33 AM | message detail

From: UItimaterializer | #003
fUNNY WAY OF SPELLING "sECOND BEST TO pART 402"


We need another ASCII Stats topic.
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Not Wylvane
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 12/9/2009 9:53:19 AM | message detail
bump
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Nominate Vault Boy!
voltch | Posted 12/9/2009 9:53:52 AM | message detail
We need something fiting for that to happen though.
However the archer deal has done one thing, I't made "discussions" on the upcoming contest take place outside the confines of the stats topic.
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Shakes Fist!
AKJ vs Kleenex | Posted 12/9/2009 9:54:42 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #002
Best stats topic opening ever


I came into this topic to check for an Archer reference and I'm very happy

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Porre either became an aristocratic mercantile state or a placid direct democracy depending on if the lady who ran an inn was able to serve people beef jerky.
red sox 777 | Posted 12/9/2009 10:34:25 AM | message detail
Good show from Frog with this DSV- looks like he's gained more with it than he managed with the early vote last night.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 12/9/2009 11:05:45 AM | message detail
So CT apparently has a better day vote then FFX these days

who knew
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Nominate Vault Boy!
charmander6000 | Posted 12/9/2009 11:08:54 AM | message detail
CTDS-fear.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
red sox 777 | Posted 12/9/2009 11:19:41 AM | message detail
Well CT did go even with FFVII during the ASV in the games contest, after all. We're not at the ASV yet though, and you can never really be sure with CT characters until then.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2009 12:01:10 PM | message detail
Chrono Trigger's DSV is not too bad because it's essentially a watered down night vote because the kiddies are at school. Night oriented characters tend to do well during that timeframe.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2009 12:01:25 PM | message detail
But at the same time, FFX's ASV was not very good in the Games Contest either, so...
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2009 12:03:50 PM | message detail
Triple post!

Big Daddy's only 300 votes behind Liquid. He's got a chance to beat him.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
Zylo the wolf | Posted 12/9/2009 12:03:58 PM | message detail
Just a thought: If Magus was in here instead of Frog, would he be able to win this poll?

Not that I don't think it's awesome that Frog always gives us a show to remember, but when was the last time Magus did anything except failing? 2003?
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. KrahenProfit > Me
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 12/9/2009 12:04:51 PM | message detail
If I was a betting man, I'd bet on Big Daddy passing Liquid here
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Nominate Vault Boy!
red sox 777 | Posted 12/9/2009 12:07:33 PM | message detail
I think Frog isn't going to need any miracles tonight because Rikku's probably not going to do much more than stall with the ASV here, so yes Magus would win too in this position. He might not be in this position right now if he'd been here in Frog's place though.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/9/2009 12:37:28 PM | message detail
Not that I don't think it's awesome that Frog always gives us a show to remember, but when was the last time Magus did anything except failing? 2003?

Actually Magus was a failure in 2003. His first match was a bit shakey, but going even with Ganondorf who went even with Tidus (the board hated Tidus) was considered bad. It was one of the reasons why Magus wasn't included with the Noble Nine.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2009 12:39:58 PM | message detail
People just kind of assumed Ganondorf and Tidus were stronger than expected once he got 35% on Link though. Plus, one of the qualifications of the Noble Nine was that they had to be in every contest, so Magus didn't fit the bill anyway.

Magus didn't do badly in 2004 either, but he didn't really have a chance to flop. I mean, his first match was Luca Blight, and most people expected him to lose to Crono anyway.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2009 12:41:13 PM | message detail
Hmmm...Big Daddy's only cut about 30 votes since the top of the hour. Maybe he won't make a run at Liquid after all.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
red sox 777 | Posted 12/9/2009 12:43:29 PM | message detail
Magus 2003 looks like a huge success from our perspective now, but I guess he had ridiculous expectations before the contest that year. I think the Magus > Crono and "Magus has the best shot of taking down Link" people were always a minority though.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/9/2009 12:44:01 PM | message detail
People just kind of assumed Ganondorf and Tidus were stronger than expected once he got 35% on Link though. Plus, one of the qualifications of the Noble Nine was that they had to be in every contest, so Magus didn't fit the bill anyway.

Actually the Noble Nine were the characters that made it to round 4 + Crono because it was so close and controversial. All of them being in 2002 was just a coincidence and became a rule after the fact. Pre-contest the top characters was the Noble Nine minus Sonic and plus Magus.


Magus didn't do badly in 2004 either, but he didn't really have a chance to flop. I mean, his first match was Luca Blight, and most people expected him to lose to Crono anyway.

Many people didn't expect Crono to SFF Magus.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
charmander6000 | Posted 12/9/2009 12:45:36 PM | message detail
Magus 2003 looks like a huge success from our perspective now, but I guess he had ridiculous expectations before the contest that year. I think the Magus > Crono and "Magus has the best shot of taking down Link" people were always a minority though.

Not really, while most people didn't think it would happen if Link was to lose it would have been to Magus.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 12/9/2009 12:46:11 PM | message detail
The current attempted comebacks are Big Daddy trying to beat Liquid Snake, Diddy trying to pass Archer and Olimar trying to pass Frank West. All three comebacks are moving a bit too slowly, though.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
red sox 777 | Posted 12/9/2009 12:46:11 PM | message detail
I don't think the Noble Nine ever had any real criteria everyone agreed on back then, other than not losing to anyone outside the group.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
red sox 777 | Posted 12/9/2009 12:47:54 PM | message detail
Frog seems to be holding up with the ASV pretty well- better than Rikku, in fact.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
UItimaterializer | Posted 12/9/2009 12:48:42 PM | message detail
Midna not being in the top four is good news.
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I am the Dragon of Blood, a relentless prince of pain
Renouncing God on His throne, my blood is forever stained.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/9/2009 12:56:36 PM | message detail
Sonic's inclusion to the Noble Nine was nothing short of a stroke of good luck. Pre-contest Sonic was considered strong, but not top-tier, during the contest Sonic didn't exactly looked that good against Zero or Aeris and was crushed by Cloud and post contest when the x-stats were first revealed it was shown that Sonic was in 10th place behind Magus with Ganondorf, Tidus and Shadow all right behind him. Had Cloud not gone and won the contest or had the x-stats existed before the creation of the group Sonic probably wouldn't have been a part of it and the Elite 8 would have fallen in 2006.

Plus I think the stats topic had a couple of Sonic fans back then.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2009 1:17:39 PM | message detail
This board used to like Sonic, yeah.

This board used to like Cloud, too, years ago.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
Zylo the wolf | Posted 12/9/2009 1:23:47 PM | message detail
Board 8 have always secretly loved Cloud, he's always in the top 3 when Holy Excalibur does a top 100 characters.list.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. KrahenProfit > Me
Zylo the wolf | Posted 12/9/2009 1:27:15 PM | message detail
Sonic's inclusion to the Noble Nine was nothing short of a stroke of good luck. Pre-contest Sonic was considered strong, but not top-tier, during the contest Sonic didn't exactly looked that good against Zero or Aeris and was crushed by Cloud and post contest when the x-stats were first revealed it was shown that Sonic was in 10th place behind Magus with Ganondorf, Tidus and Shadow all right behind him. Had Cloud not gone and won the contest or had the x-stats existed before the creation of the group Sonic probably wouldn't have been a part of it and the Elite 8 would have fallen in 2006.

It was a lot of talk to not include Snake either, because you can say the same thing about him. I think people just had Sonic VS Samus in 2002 in mind as well. But it just didn't make sense to not include two of the gaming worlds most popular characters.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. KrahenProfit > Me
voltch | Posted 12/9/2009 1:30:33 PM | message detail
I think Sonic and Snake ended up part of the established noble nine, because they were the most popular characters of the biggest franchises around.
The only real anomaly is VII having too characters, but that just shows how strong they are.
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Shakes Fist!
charmander6000 | Posted 12/9/2009 1:41:07 PM | message detail
Solid Snake was considered to be one of the big 5 in 2002 so he had history and the board's attitude towards him was different than Sonic, even with x-stats I'm sure that Snake would have been part of the noble nine.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 12/9/2009 1:42:22 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #036
Solid Snake was considered to be one of the big 5 in 2002 so he had history and the board's attitude towards him was different than Sonic, even with x-stats I'm sure that Snake would have been part of the noble nine.


lol I remember the board going crazy when Crono was beating him. Even Cronos biggest fans figured that was the end of the road for him
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Nominate Vault Boy!
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2009 1:42:55 PM | message detail
I don't think there were a lot of people in support of Magus being in the Noble Nine. I know he had some vocal supporters saying that he would beat Sonic (Lucid Faia I think was the most vocal of this group), but I don't really think that the Noble Nine was ever really anyone but the group we have now. There was debate on whether to have 8 or 9, but other than that, not really.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
charmander6000 | Posted 12/9/2009 1:44:13 PM | message detail
Crono/Solid Snake is one of the most underrated matches IMO. Though I guess three days after intense matches would do that. Good think Link/Scorpion was there to give the board a real break.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
charmander6000 | Posted 12/9/2009 1:46:36 PM | message detail
I don't think there were a lot of people in support of Magus being in the Noble Nine. I know he had some vocal supporters saying that he would beat Sonic (Lucid Faia I think was the most vocal of this group), but I don't really think that the Noble Nine was ever really anyone but the group we have now. There was debate on whether to have 8 or 9, but other than that, not really.

Pre-contest Magus was on more top character lists than Sonic and many people were calling Cloud to have the easiest path of the top rated characters. After round 2 talk about Magus being a top character stopped and when the x-stats were revealed Magus then became a potential noble nine breaker.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2009 1:47:57 PM | message detail
Pre-contest doesn't really matter because a lot of people thought Luigi > Mario pre-contest, too.
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Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 12/9/2009 1:48:34 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #041
Pre-contest doesn't really matter because a lot of people thought Luigi > Mario pre-contest, too.


well those people were just dumb
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Nominate Vault Boy!
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2009 1:49:09 PM | message detail

From: Cyclo_Reaper | #042
well those people were just dumb


Those Favorite Character polls don't lie, man!
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
Mr3790 | Posted 12/9/2009 1:54:24 PM | message detail
Nice, frog is doing well with the ASV.
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I fell in the Guru Contest, because KrahenProphet was there.
GENO WHIRL!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 12/9/2009 1:56:46 PM | message detail
...huh. Go Frog.
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UItimaterializer | Posted 12/9/2009 2:06:41 PM | message detail
Message From Ultima_X on 12/09/2009

Just wanted to say, I'm loving the play-in idea. My only question is will any characters be given a second chance? Just to throw a random name out there, Jigglypuff was put in a poll against two other Pokemon characters. I'm positive you know about SFF and its effects, and while it can't ever be avoided in huge entrant polls it can't hurt to see a character or two get an independent crack at a play-in poll to prevent flukes and wild fanbase splits.

Message From GameFAQs on 12/09/2009
The vote in system will be finalizing the bracket, so there won't be anymore chances after that.


That, as they say......... is that. </Maechen>
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`.,,.`.,,.`.,,.~*ST*~.,,.`.,,.`.,,.
GENESIC EMERALD TAGER BUSTAAAAAAAAAAH
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 12/9/2009 2:15:42 PM | message detail
a character who finishes last is the last one who needs another chance tbqh
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Nominate Vault Boy!
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 12/9/2009 2:18:00 PM | message detail
Jigglypuff would have beat Yoshimitsu if she wasn't being SFF'd by Missingno. and Mudkip.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 12/9/2009 2:18:57 PM | message detail
beating a complete bum who has no reason to be anywhere near the contest isnt much of a compliment
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Nominate Vault Boy!
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2009 2:20:04 PM | message detail
Okay, we knew it was finalizing the bracket more or less. We still don't know all the details.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."