GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 757

UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/20/2009 7:02:26 PM | message detail
Added a couple things to the first post. Also, yay noms!



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2009 7:17:14 PM | message detail
That's right, Squall at the head of the list of Near-Elite!
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 11/20/2009 7:37:30 PM | message detail
On Personal Preference, Arthas is not the best member of the Scourge.



with that out of the way, I wish Kirby to own suckas this year again.
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/21/2009 10:44:07 AM | message detail

From: Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted: 11/20/2009 10:37:30 PM | #003
On Personal Preference, Arthas is not the best member of the Scourge.


Sylvanas is the best character in Warcraft 3.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
11/15/2009 - Never forget 4th and 2.
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 11/21/2009 10:45:47 AM | message detail
Tag I guess
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/21/2009 10:46:58 AM | message detail
500 in a stats topic on topic? WTF
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"If you establish wrist control you can quickly rob the bank."
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/21/2009 10:47:13 AM | message detail
Zack needs to face someone whose strength we know (other than Link, I guess) in a fair fight before I believe what he's worth. The guy's got a big range, so I'm all about getting him back in the contest.
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ZFS | Posted 11/21/2009 10:48:07 AM | message detail
If Cid gets in, that'll probably be your 'most overrated character,' along with Red. Neither one of those two are hanging at Vincent level.

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the journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/21/2009 10:49:33 AM | message detail
I have high hopes for Cid, but he won't be beating Vincent, Squall, Auron, Tifa, or that bunch. I'd say about Aerith level, maybe a little higher.

Cid vs. Pikachu, go!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
HaRRicH | Posted 11/21/2009 10:49:48 AM | message detail
I've gotta see Cid do well first before I give him that kind of credit. I've figured Aeris could beat any playable FF7-character we haven't seen yet, though I think Cid would make it close.
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Please nominate DOC LOUIS from Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
red sox 777 | Posted 11/21/2009 10:51:09 AM | message detail
I agree that Cid could be very strong (like possibly the #3 FF7 character). Red XIII is probably somewhat weaker, but he could still easily be Zack level or higher. I think people are hesitant to ascribe great strength to characters who haven't made it into a contest in 7 years, but that's never really stopped FFVII newcomers from being strong before. It's just hard to get nominated when you're from that game due to the nominations being split.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/21/2009 10:51:24 AM | message detail
I've been thoroughly disappointed in Aerith the last two times we've seen her. I just don't think she has a strong support base.

Aerith vs. Yuna (Remember, they put up almost identical numbers against Zelda in 2006): Who you got?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
ZFS | Posted 11/21/2009 10:52:14 AM | message detail
I could buy Aerith level, though I'm thinking it'd be more of a ceiling for him. He'll be strong, but near-elite and third strongest FF7 character are stuff I've seen thrown around that just aren't true.

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the journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/21/2009 10:52:37 AM | message detail
Nah, I don't give Cid much of any chance of beating out Vincent for the #3 FFVII character. I'd have a hard time saying he's got any chance of besting Tifa for #4.

Speaking of Tifa, we still need to see Tifa vs. Zelda.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
ZFS | Posted 11/21/2009 10:54:04 AM | message detail
Yeah, Tifa should beat him without a whole lot of trouble. Cid's never been that popular.

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the journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step
red sox 777 | Posted 11/21/2009 10:56:40 AM | message detail
Aeris really isn't very strong anymore so it wouldn't be much of an accomplishment for Cid to be stronger than her. I'd probably take him over Zack and Red XIII but not Tifa or Vincent if it came down to it.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
HaRRicH | Posted 11/21/2009 11:01:12 AM | message detail
Aeris > Yuna -- Aeris barely outdid her indirectly and there's no way her FF7-origin is going to hurt her against Yuna. It should still be fairly close though.

I know we've been scared or whatever about newcomers from FF7 and there's a point about the split nominations, but in the few polls we've seen about the FF7-characters (the GameFAQs-one from ~2002 and the poll HM found from a FF7-fansite that had a few thousand votes around 2005 come to mind) show that Vincent and Tifa are next in line after Cloud and Sephiroth, then I believe Aeris, then the rest. Since then, Tifa/Vincent/Aeris had the biggest side-roles out of the playable crew in FF:AC (from what I remember), Vincent got his own game, and Tifa/Aeris were in KH2. Cid was cool, I can't imagine many people not liking him, but he's not had anything new to really keep him going like them and it looks like the others already mentioned have been favored from the start.
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Please nominate DOC LOUIS from Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 11/21/2009 11:13:51 AM | message detail
Yuna's done very well since then while Aerith has bombed, though. It's definitely an upset, but gimme Yuna. Comparing them using 2k6 X-Stats is probably a bit like assuming Vincent is still going to win against Squall due to his very close win back then while Squall's gotten Dissidia.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/21/2009 11:17:26 AM | message detail
Those kinds of fan favorite polls really aren't worth much (remember the favorite Mario character poll). Tifa obviously has a much bigger presence than Cid in FFVII and the spinoffs, but Vincent has an even smaller role (other than Dirge of Cerberus anyway). I think back in 2003 Aeris was close to Tifa and Vincent (or else Tifa and Vincent would have beaten down Sonic that year) but since then she's fallen off pretty far.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/21/2009 11:18:07 AM | message detail
don't forget the hentai fans who might not even be FF fans but seen her all the time
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2009 11:28:23 AM | message detail
Let it never be said that Guru entrants go back on their word.

Prinny - 32

Charizard – 26

Ken – 23

Cid Highwind – 21

Yoshimitsu – 18

Darth Revan – 16
Doc Louis – 16

Pokemon Trainer Red – 15

Dan Hibiki – 13

Proto Man – 11

Archer – 10

Phoenix Wright – 9
Jigglypuff – 9

Albert Wesker – 8
Gene – 8
Jack Frost – 8
Jecht – 8
Professor Layton – 8
Vault Boy – 8
Yuna – 8

Lyn - 7
Nathan Drake - 7

Big Boss – 6
Gilgamesh – 6
Godot – 6
Maxwell – 6

Bayonetta - 5
Boko - 5
Ike - 5
Minsc – 5
Yuffie Kisaragi – 5
Yuri Lowell – 5
Zack Fair – 5

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/21/2009 11:29:07 AM | message detail
I thought Bayonetta would be doing better given all the hype we had for her.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/vault.jpg Nominate Vault Boy ... or else!
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/21/2009 11:29:25 AM | message detail
Besides the Mario-polls and the Sonic-poll, none of the other character-polls have butchered their order or even been all that unreliable...and for those two examples, the main shocks are Yoshi and Knuckles -- two well-known fan-favorites. Also, if Aeris has dropped, it's hard to argue other playable FF7-characters that have had even less new stuff than her in recent years shouldn't drop too.
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Please nominate DOC LOUIS from Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2009 11:30:07 AM | message detail
Bayonetta isn't even out yet. Yeah it probably comes out before the contest starts, but really.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/21/2009 11:37:07 AM | message detail
Well, basically I'm just saying that Cid has a decently sized range and we don't really know where he is in it. Intuition would say pretty strongly that Cid > Zack. The actual results from last year tell us that Zack is above Aeris and not terribly far from Tifa, so.....
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
HaRRicH | Posted 11/21/2009 11:47:09 AM | message detail
Zack's a special case though -- pre-CC:FF7, I'd imagine most of us would take nearly every playable character (barring maybe Yuffie and Cait Sith), Sephiroth, and at least one Turk over Zack...and for good reason, too. The issue of where Zack gets most of his strength is still in the air and important to consider when in SFF-matches.

Zack's proven he won't completely fall apart since he beat down Cecil and Zidane last year, but neither one are particularly strong nor from his first game. I think he will lose his luster against somebody respectable from FF7, and Cid would at least be that.
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Please nominate DOC LOUIS from Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/21/2009 11:48:06 AM | message detail
Reno would beat Zack now too! Thats one character with untapped potential people never talk about
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/21/2009 11:49:14 AM | message detail
Oh, and on what KP said -- yeah, the Gurus have come together strong thus far. It should only continue, too, though it was still annoying to wait on the nomination and I think picking earlier would have been even more effective.

Also, go Doc Louis.
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Please nominate DOC LOUIS from Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/21/2009 11:53:13 AM | message detail
<_<;
who's Prinny?
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go crazy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/21/2009 11:55:25 AM | message detail

From: GrapefruitKing | #029
<_<;
who's Prinny?


a side character from disgaea of laharl fame
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ZFS | Posted 11/21/2009 11:56:09 AM | message detail
Haha, Reno. Let's stick to FF7 PCs.

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the journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step
HaRRicH | Posted 11/21/2009 11:56:22 AM | message detail
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v210/Abyssion/PrinnyGFaqs2.png

I understand Prinny and the Prinny-race is to Disgaea as Toad and the Toad-race is to Mario...except Toad never got his own PSP-game.
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Please nominate DOC LOUIS from Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2009 11:59:23 AM | message detail
Prinnies are definitely a good bit more likable and memorable than the Toads, though...which is more than balanced out by Disgaea being infinitely more obscure, but yeah.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
ZFS | Posted 11/21/2009 12:00:16 PM | message detail
Toad would probably rock Prinny in a match, which kinda tells you all you need to know.

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the journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/21/2009 12:01:08 PM | message detail
I still think if theres a second Disgaea character, it should be Etna though!
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/21/2009 12:03:06 PM | message detail
I will admit I think I would enjoy playing as Prinny. A peg-legged penguin with a sword, fanny-pack, and bat-wings has never looked so cool.
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Please nominate DOC LOUIS from Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
HaRRicH | Posted 11/21/2009 12:04:24 PM | message detail
Oh, certainly, I would consider Waluigi > Laharl, so Toad should smash the likes of Prinny. Mario's just THAT much bigger than Disgaea.
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Please nominate DOC LOUIS from Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/21/2009 12:06:06 PM | message detail
toad would do a trippling

Honestly, I think Prinny is Jade territory. If that
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/vault.jpg Nominate Vault Boy ... or else!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2009 12:08:28 PM | message detail
Threw this together using the 5th-8th most nominated B8 character. Will (probably) do one later using the Top 4.

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/5503/mock1.png

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/21/2009 12:19:15 PM | message detail
Ugh, Waluigi shouldn't beat anyone. If voters had taste Toad/Waluigi should be a Link/Ganon style beatdown.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/21/2009 12:21:05 PM | message detail
People would vote for Waluigi?
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/21/2009 12:22:19 PM | message detail
Red > ...Revan

That pic is probably the best Doc can ask for, too, though for all the wrong reasons. With a bike-picture, is there any chance 4chan, YTMND, or others would catch wind of it and try to make a dent in our contest?
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Please nominate DOC LOUIS from Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/21/2009 12:34:39 PM | message detail
I'd vote for Waluigi.

... In that case, anyway.
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Now this is entertainment!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/21/2009 1:18:55 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #042
Red > ...Revan

That pic is probably the best Doc can ask for, too, though for all the wrong reasons. With a bike-picture, is there any chance 4chan, YTMND, or others would catch wind of it and try to make a dent in our contest?


I don't think we'd need to worry about 4chan being any more dangerous then they have in previous matches. Gamespot was a much better opportunity for them since less votes per day/7 day format, plus apparently a lot easier to stuff for it. I'd say what Battletoads got is about the max we can expect from 4chan.. which was like 3000 votes or something? Enough to swing a pretty close match but not enough to have Doc beat mid carders or anything
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/vault.jpg Nominate Vault Boy ... or else!
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/doc.gif
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/21/2009 1:20:22 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | Posted: 11/21/2009 3:22:19 PM | #042
Red > ...Revan

That pic is probably the best Doc can ask for, too, though for all the wrong reasons. With a bike-picture, is there any chance 4chan, YTMND, or others would catch wind of it and try to make a dent in our contest?


That is the classiest possible way anyone can ask the question we're all thinking.
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_stingers_ | Posted 11/21/2009 1:23:56 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #021
Let it never be said that Guru entrants go back on their word.

Prinny - 32

Charizard – 26

Ken – 23

Cid Highwind – 21

Yoshimitsu – 18

Darth Revan – 16
Doc Louis – 16

Pokemon Trainer Red – 15

Dan Hibiki – 13

Proto Man – 11

Archer – 10

Phoenix Wright – 9
Jigglypuff – 9

Albert Wesker – 8
Gene – 8
Jack Frost – 8
Jecht – 8
Professor Layton – 8
Vault Boy – 8
Yuna – 8

Lyn - 7
Nathan Drake - 7

Big Boss – 6
Gilgamesh – 6
Godot – 6
Maxwell – 6

Bayonetta - 5
Boko - 5
Ike - 5
Minsc – 5
Yuffie Kisaragi – 5
Yuri Lowell – 5
Zack Fair – 5


did you do this yourself?

why am i running a nomination tally topic if you're doing one >.>
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voltch | Posted 11/21/2009 1:36:45 PM | message detail
if it's 1 vs 1 how on earth could 4 chan swing a joke over a midcarder?
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Shakes Fist!
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2009 1:37:00 PM | message detail
I got bored so I updated yours. Don't expect it to become a trend.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 11/21/2009 1:37:46 PM | message detail

From: voltch | Posted: 11/21/2009 1:36:45 PM | #047
if it's 1 vs 1 how on earth could 4 chan swing a joke over a midcarder?


A la Bub?
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_stingers_ | Posted 11/21/2009 1:39:14 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #048
I got bored so I updated yours. Don't expect it to become a trend.


well why dont you finish it @.@
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