GameFAQs Contests

Zack may have had a band-wagon as he kept winning, but he had another reason to perform well at the end: LFF. Link/Mario are obviously connected, Mario/MMX share a connection of their own, and Link/Mega Man plus LoZ/MMX say Link/MMX have a relationship. Remember how much Mewtwo got to stand out against Cloud/Squall/Sora? We could see something to that effect here, too.

Except I took round 3 Zack (Link/Zack/Duke/Altair) since that was the most balance version.
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From: Big Bob | #100
Who'd you take in a 1-on-1 fight these days, Bowser or Luigi? Luigi did beat him last time, but Bowser's finally gotten a game where he's (sorta) the main character.

Bowser, though I don't feel confident with that.
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Good call, but is his R3-value much higher than his R2-value? I don't think many band-wagons happen in R3, and the few I can think of (Link > Magus, Solid > Frog) were in times when the bandwagoned had a good chance of losing. Zack had no fear of not advancing in R3 once he reached R3...plus Zidane should be considered in R2 if there's a difference in his values from those rounds.

It may be possible Wario just doesn't suck much anymore -- Zack did nothing but impress and get people talking every round, and Wario's R1-loss looks a lot more acceptable after what black-haired Cloud accomplished.
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I'd probably pick Luigi over Bowser based purely on fanboyism.
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Good call, but is his R3-value much higher than his R2-value? I don't think many band-wagons happen in R3, and the few I can think of (Link > Magus, Solid > Frog) were in times when the bandwagoned had a good chance of losing. Zack had no fear of not advancing in R3 once he reached R3...plus Zidane should be considered in R2 if there's a difference in his values from those rounds.

Zack did slightly better in round 2 than round 3, but with Wario and Zidane in that match I'm not sure what to think of that. Also while we thought Zack should easily advance in round 3 I don't think the average person did.


It may be possible Wario just doesn't suck much anymore -- Zack did nothing but impress and get people talking every round, and Wario's R1-loss looks a lot more acceptable after what black-haired Cloud accomplished.

Maybe, I just find it funny that even though we gave Nintendo so much flack in that contest they still did fairly well.
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Maybe, I just find it funny that even though we gave Nintendo so much flack in that contest they still did fairly well.

The characters with strength did fine. I think most of the flack came from all the SSBB fodder that got in.
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Yeah, not only was there a lot of fodder, but there was a variety of disappointments by the SSBB-crew in the first round in different ways. Wario and Lucario let down many people against newcomers, Meta-Knight was counted on by many to remove 2007's champ in the first round, Kirby was blown out by Big Boss despite eventually beating two Noble Niners, DK lost hard to a box, Ness dropped the ball against Pac-Man, some weirdos like me counted on Captain Olimar to beat Nero when he ended up losing to Banjo, and then Lucas and Nana embarrassed themselves worse than most people expected to become some of the weakest characters from last year.

It got a lot better for Nintendo as the contest went on, but there were few things going well in R1 for the company.
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Zack performed very consistently between round 2 and round 3- he got right around 30% on Link in both matches. In round 4, with triple Nintendo LFF, he moved up to 34% on Link- a significant but not all that large shift.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

Aw MWC I had a great 500 post I wanted to make to close out the Gamespot contest stats and discussion series. Well, I guess I'll post the part that's relevant to Gamefaqs contests here....

Crono > Mario

Gamefaqs Character Battle VIII

KEEP THE FAITH
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

From: red sox 777 | #109
Aw MWC I had a great 500 post I wanted to make to close out the Gamespot contest stats and discussion series. Well, I guess I'll post the part that's relevant to Gamefaqs contests here....

Crono > Mario

Gamefaqs Character Battle VIII

KEEP THE FAITH

Sorry bro, if I knew you were going for it I would not have posted. ANyway, post the rest of it here, I am curious.


Also, Crono>Mario. **** Yeah!!!
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Nah it wasn't really that great; that was by far the most interesting part.

Crono > Mario really isn't delusional or based on excessive hope. It's a legitimate upset pick with a fair chance of happening, although many people in this topic won't be persuaded of that by any reasoning or argument. That's okay- let the contest show us the truth. Even if he doesn't win, he should do well enough to vindicate his post-CTDS strength and/or make it clear that Mario was hit hard by the Deboost, and is not now nor ever was anywhere near Clinkeroth.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

...ever?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=996


And even less seriously, Mario's getting NSMBW soon to redeem his good name once and for all. Crono's doomed, take that to the bank and cash it.
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Mario just has too many games coming out for him.
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Shakes Fist!

Galaxy 2 will come out during the next Mario/Crono match and Mario will double Crono.
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It really makes me wonder, what Crono would need to stay competitive with Mario without Lady Luck tweaking the matches ever year to give us some Mario/Crono awesomeness. If the fabled Chrono Break came out, starred Crono, AND was considered a rightful (if somewhat inferior, in the way a 9.2 is worse than a 9.8) heir to CT, would you expect him to jump back up to Mario's level, at least for a year?
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At this point, I don't even think that would boost Crono to Mario's level, though Crono/Samus could be a good match in that scenario.

I think it'd take a huge Nintendo deboost that would knock Mario down a few pegs, and that's unlikely at this point, since even with the Wii failing Mario's pretty much single-handedly keeping the thing afloat.
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I kinda wish Dragon Age Origins didnt come out to consoles... it would be a shoe in to win pc goty then :(
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I'd rather see how poorly Sims 3 does in the overall-GotY!
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Sims 3 was actually fun!
But anyway what kind of sales is that monster generating?
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From: voltch | #119
Sims 3 was actually fun!
But anyway what kind of sales is that monster generating?

http://kotaku.com/5284965/the-sims-3-sells-14-million-during-week-one

this is the only sales numbers I've heard of from it
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People are acting like 2008 didn't happen, and judging the effects of CTDS before we've seen Crono in a single match after the release. I mean....seriously, how?
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

Losing to SM64 doesn't inspire me with much hope.
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No, it doesn't fill me with confidence either. But 48-49% on LTTP is definitely good enough to keep the hope alive there.

And there are many good arguments for Mario over Crono. But stuff like Wylvane posted just doesn't make sense- how do you even begin to think about what Mario/Crono would look like post-Chrono 3 when you haven't even seen Mario and Crono in action post-CTDS? How on earth do you just assume Mario is indirectly stronger than Samus? Why would you think Mario didn't deboost last year?

.....I don't know why; it's like some people put Mario on a level with Clinkeroth. Based on what? Certainly not past contest results on Gamefaqs.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

Why would you say Mario deboosted? Samus isn't beating Mario unless the Nintendo fanbase decided to change who they are supporting. Also CTDS didn't really bring in new fans, at best it's a band-aid to stem the bleeding.
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Opps you said indirectly.

Well considering Samus being ahead of Mario would only move her one spot, does it really matter if she's stronger than him?
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1361
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1002

Samus did better than Mario, but she was up against WW Link, so I'm not one to take the result that seriously. Had it been Classic Link, I'm sure Samus would've done worse than Mario.
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Mario looks like he deboosted because he and every other Mario character performed way worse in 2008 than in 2005-7.

Yes, it matters, because it's strength and not rank that matters. While people here disagree about Mario vs. Samus indirectly and will probably do so for years to come, it seems pretty clear that they are at least fairly close indirectly. I don't understand how anyone could think with confidence that Mario is far above Samus indirectly, but that idea seems to come from Wylvane's statement.

We don't know how CTDS affected Crono's strength because we haven't seen Crono in action after it. We did see CT, but the last time we saw CT was 2004, and post-CTDS CT being weaker than 2004 CT doesn't really mean much with regards to CTDS's effect. Indeed, if you compare CT and FFVI and assume they took equal drops prior to CTDS, CTDS looks like it caused a pretty large boost.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

Plus, for whatever it's worth, CTDS will be over a year old by the time we get into the next contest...heck, I think it's about to turn a year old now. That coupled with pretty small sales doesn't bode well.

CT did do pretty well in BGE2 considering what SM64 ended up doing, though it was still noticeably worse than it did in 2004 and we don't know how much worse it could have done without CTDS. Fact though is that Mario got ~54% the last time they had a fair fight, it's been four years since that battle, and Mario's been in two GotY's since then while Nintendo left the Gamecube for the much more successful Wii...compared to CT getting a handheld port.

Mario didn't impress anybody last year (even though he was never in a position to impress) and you may be right about a deboost, but after the roll Nintendo's been on since their last fair match and how bad he beat Crono then, it's hard to seriously consider CTDS as enough to let Crono beat Mario one-on-one again.

Heck, Mario still got ~44% on Crono last year despite both Link and Samus being in the poll. Remove those two, and it's hard to imagine CTDS saving Crono if it was a million-seller.
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Mario looks like he deboosted because he and every other Mario character performed way worse in 2008 than in 2005-7.

Mario had to contend with Zelda, Luigi, Link, Samus and to a lesser extent Mudkip and Mega Man X
Luigi had post-MGS4 Liquid then was Bowser'd and Mario'd
Bowser actually looked pretty good in round 1 before dying to Luigi
Yoshi did look pretty bad against Squall and didn't do any better when Sora and Fox were added

I see no reason to believe that Mario looked bad in 2008 as I have no reason to believe that Crono is going to 55/45 himself because of a DS game where the majority of buyers were probably CT fans to begin with.
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Heck, Mario still got ~44% on Crono last year despite both Link and Samus being in the poll. Remove those two, and it's hard to imagine CTDS saving Crono if it was a million-seller.

Well, the thing is, Zack only moved from 30% to 34% on Link when Mario and MMX were added. Apply the same shift to Crono's 57% on Mario, and you get a pretty much dead even match before CTDS. Now of course, Samus is probably worse for the Nintendo characters than MMX, and Mario probably got hurt worse from LFF than Link due to being the 2nd strongest Nintendo character in the match instead of the first, but Crono getting 47%ish on Mario last year still seems pretty reasonable. LFF between huge video game icons like Link and Mario just isn't that huge.

CTDS is capable of a 3-5% boost- meaning Crono would get 53-55% on his 2008 self. We don't yet know how much of that boost did materialize or not, although as said the CT/FFVI comparison in the games contest suggests something in that area. FFVI's drop also matches up pretty well with what Crono's drop from the 2004 peak to the 2007 nadir looks like.

The key here is that 2008 Mario just looked weaker than 2005 Mario. Sure, Nintendo went from strength to strength from 2005 to 2007- doesn't mean Mario isn't weaker than his 2005 form now. Actually, there's no real evidence that even 2007 Mario was stronger than 2005 Mario- they looked pretty close in any case.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

So what if the majority are already established fans, who knows, an extra 2-3 thousand people might become chrono voters after CTDS and in super close matches 2-3k is enough to make a huge difference.
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Shakes Fist!

Mario had to contend with Zelda, Luigi, Link, Samus and to a lesser extent Mudkip and Mega Man X
Luigi had post-MGS4 Liquid then was Bowser'd and Mario'd
Bowser actually looked pretty good in round 1 before dying to Luigi
Yoshi did look pretty bad against Squall and didn't do any better when Sora and Fox were added

I can make similar excuses for all of Crono's performances in 2005-2008 and insist that he never dropped at all and is still really at his 2004 level. At some point, you have to ask yourself whether to believe in all of the excuses or just accept the simple explanation.

2007 Mario put up a higher percentage against Link, Sephiroth, and Vincent than 2007 Crono did against Link, Vincent, and Zero. He didn't let something as big as the KING OF SFF himself stop him from impressing. 2008 Mario just isn't the same.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

I don't think you know how big of a 3-5% boost is on someone who is as strong as Crono.


So what if the majority are already established fans, who knows, an extra 2-3 thousand people might become chrono voters after CTDS and in super close matches 2-3k is enough to make a huge difference.

Which is fine, but I predict that Mario would win by more than that anyways. I'd feel confident on taking Crono over Vincent.
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btw, should we be discounting Europe so soon?
I have a few mates who knew of chrono trigger but hadn't actually PLAYED it on emulator yet, so there's still an unconfirmed number of euro votes that could swing Crono's way.

Still think Mario will crush him if Galaxy 2 and NSMBwii comes and gets well received.

BTW, Regie seems to think NSMB will outsell what MW2 does on a single platform, if it puts up brawl like numbers, can we expect some kind of boost above 3% for mario?
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Shakes Fist!

I don't think you know how big of a 3-5% boost is on someone who is as strong as Crono.

Crono isn't all that strong. This isn't Clinkeroth we're talking about. People starting out in his range of strength have had much larger boosts before:

Mario 2005
Snake 2006
Cloud/Sephiroth 2003

Actually, I think all of those started out stronger than Crono 2008. CTDS isn't that big a thing but it's big for Crono because he didn't have much to start with.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

I can make similar excuses for all of Crono's performances in 2005-2008 and insist that he never dropped at all and is still really at his 2004 level. At some point, you have to ask yourself whether to believe in all of the excuses or just accept the simple explanation.

Not really, LFF doesn't exist in the same reality in 1v1 as it does in 4-ways

2007 Mario put up a higher percentage against Link, Sephiroth, and Vincent than 2007 Crono did against Link, Vincent, and Zero. He didn't let something as big as the KING OF SFF himself stop him from impressing. 2008 Mario just isn't the same.

Tifa in round 2 isn't the same as Tifa in round 1, I guess people forgot about her over the two weeks. I mean if she didn't let a character from her own game SFF stop her why would she ever be stopped?

Take a look at 2k6 Mario also.
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Crono isn't all that strong. This isn't Clinkeroth we're talking about. People starting out in his range of strength have had much larger boosts before:

Mario 2005
Snake 2006
Cloud/Sephiroth 2003

Actually, I think all of those started out stronger than Crono 2008. CTDS isn't that big a thing but it's big for Crono because he didn't have much to start with.

Those three examples were caused by the site shift. I don't see/feel Crono is any stronger than he was pre-CTDS. The game kind of came and went. Do you feel that the site is more pro-Crono?
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Not really, LFF doesn't exist in the same reality in 1v1 as it does in 4-ways

It's not that hard to make excuses for Crono in 2005-2006 (creative's least squares regression even said Crono 2004 = Crono 2005). 2007-2008 are much harder, but conveniently those years I can blame 4-ways.

If you want to see all the Mario characters doing much worse in 2008 than 2007 as a Tifa round 1/2 situation, go ahead. There's not going to be definitive proof on any of this as long as we have 4-ways. But there's a much simpler explanation.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

when is the next contest anyway and what's the closest mario game for that timeframe?
i suppose it'll be NSMB, but with how long it takes for Bacon to set them up, it migt be much longer.
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Shakes Fist!

Those three examples were caused by the site shift. I don't see/feel Crono is any stronger than he was pre-CTDS. The game kind of came and went. Do you feel that the site is more pro-Crono?

No, but I didn't feel any site shift in 2003 or 2005 either. Granted I don't visit many parts of this site, but a 3% gain would be pretty much unobservable just by browsing on the boards. That's 3 in 50 people changing their minds between Mario and Crono. You're not going to notice it just by posting.

And Crono has advantages on those characters in terms of his boost potential because he is much less well known than they are, and started out flat out weaker than they started out.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

It's not that hard to make excuses for Crono in 2005-2006 (creative's least squares regression even said Crono 2004 = Crono 2005). 2007-2008 are much harder, but conveniently those years I can blame 4-ways.

Actually no one questioned Crono's strength until 2006 where he lost to Sonic (and even then he went from 52% to 49%). Heck even in 2007 Crono was only expected to get 51% on Vincent based on 2k6 and many people blamed Link and Zero for costing him the match. If anything Crono droping is one of the most overrated thoughts on this board.


If you want to see all the Mario characters doing much worse in 2008 than 2007 as a Tifa round 1/2 situation, go ahead. There's not going to be definitive proof on any of this as long as we have 4-ways. But there's a much simpler explanation.

I'm just saying that using obvious SFF/LFF matches is probably one of the worst ways to prove something as even those matches aren't even constant between rounds.
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Actually no one questioned Crono's strength until 2006 where he lost to Sonic (and even then he went from 52% to 49%). Heck even in 2007 Crono was only expected to get 51% on Vincent based on 2k6 and many people blamed Link and Zero for costing him the match. If anything Crono droping is one of the most overrated thoughts on this board.

I'd love to believe that man, but I was one of the people making excuses for Crono for years, and it gradually became more and more delusional. Yeah, there are people who imagine the drop to be bigger than it was, or who believe wrongly that Crono must drop every year, but the difference between Crono 2004 and Crono 2007 is quite real. And if it isn't, well, then why shouldn't Crono beat Mario now?

Anyways, to make some things clear, when I say "Crono has a decent chance of beating Mario," I mean something like this:

Crono has a....

95% chance of breaking 45% on Mario
90% chance of breaking 46%
80% chance of breaking 47%
70% chance of breaking 48%
50% chance of brekaing 49%
30% chance of breaking 50%
20% chance of breaking 51%
10% chance of breaking 52%
5% chance of breaking 53%

Or something like that.

I think my ranges are rather larger than most people's, but they should be, because none of us have had terribly great success in pinpointing match results.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

No, but I didn't feel any site shift in 2003 or 2005 either. Granted I don't visit many parts of this site, but a 3% gain would be pretty much unobservable just by browsing on the boards. That's 3 in 50 people changing their minds between Mario and Crono. You're not going to notice it just by posting.

Actually you notice, Kingdom Hearts was huge and brought people to GameFAQs. 2005 was a lot more noticable because the DS was tearing up the market, people were hyping for TP and people were also glad about the revival of Nintendo as a company.


And Crono has advantages on those characters in terms of his boost potential because he is much less well known than they are, and started out flat out weaker than they started out.

I disagree you don't become one of the ten strongest characters because nobody knows you.
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I disagree you don't become one of the ten strongest characters because nobody knows you.

There's still a pretty big difference between Crono and someone like Mario though.

And recognition isn't everything......ranking the Noble Nine by recognition, we'd probably get Mario > Link > Sonic > Samus = Megaman = Snake > Cloud = Sephiroth > Crono.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.

I'd love to believe that man, but I was one of the people making excuses for Crono for years, and it gradually became more and more delusional. Yeah, there are people who imagine the drop to be bigger than it was, or who believe wrongly that Crono must drop every year, but the difference between Crono 2004 and Crono 2007 is quite real. And if it isn't, well, then why shouldn't Crono beat Mario now?

Pre-CTDS Crono would get 47% against his 2k4 self. Mario was able to defeat Crono at his strongest rather easily. I can see why people may take Crono over Mario, but unless something major happens I feel very confident that Mario will take that without too much trouble (53/47 would be my prediciton)
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And recognition isn't everything......ranking the Noble Nine by recognition, we'd probably get Mario > Link > Sonic > Samus = Megaman = Snake > Cloud = Sephiroth > Crono.

True, but relatively Crono is much more well known on GameFAQs which would mean a boost from CTDS would be much smaller than on other sites. Still the guy is probably the least known out of the noble nine. I'd also rank Snake, Cloud and Sephiroth above Samus and Mega Man in terms of recognition.
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Given how completely pathetic Chrono Trigger was during the games contest, it's frankly unbelievable that CTDS is being given as a reason to boost Crono. CT dropped 7.5% against FFVII in direct matches, is probably overrated vs FFVII in the FFVII/Mario 64/CT because that was a close match, and FFVII itself has clearly lost some of its luster since 2004. Going by FFVII/CT and FFVII/Ocarina in 2004, CT's supposed to get 45.2% in 2004 and would be expected to get 32.5% in 2008 (and that's using the 1v1 Ocarina/FFVII match, anything else and CT looks even worse). Dropping nearly 13% (!) against Ocarina does not imply to me that CTDS did anything to help out Chrono Trigger's cause.

Granted, nearly every pre-FFVII game was fairly pathetic in the games contest (sans Mario World and maybe Mario 64) based on pre-contest expectations, but that doesn't excuse how godawful CT was. Saying CT made out better than FFVI (true) and only a bit worse than LttP (also true) obscures both a) how much the three big Mario games caught up to an surpassed CT (and in an argument about Crono/Mario, no less!) and b) how terrible pre-1997 games were in the games contest.

It's quite sad, but SNES and older games are being abandoned and GBA/DS/VC remakes/ports aren't going to stem the tide. And Mario's games are seemingly the only exception to this rule; even franchise voting couldn't do anything for FFVI and lower and the Zelda's had a rough (though slightly better - LA and Mario LFF vs Zelda 1) time of it.
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Very good point -- we got so caught up in just the CT/LoZ:LttP-side of the comparison for CT that we overlooked how poor the rest of the games on the SNES and NES did compared to 2004. From this perspective, CTDS probably only helped much compared to the other fourteen-year-old games.

If this is the case, CTDS REALLY needed to reach out to new fans instead of old fans, and I never got that feeling. Does anybody have some sales-numbers for Europe?
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You do know that the entire top half minus FFVII is underrated? I'd argue that CT was affected by FFVII or else the game would have defeated SM64 in round 3. I also see no reason at calling FFVII weaker now than it was in 2k4, though I can see the arguements.
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I don't buy CT or SSBM's 2004 values against FFVII though. Overperformances, just like Sephiroth/Ganon and Sephiroth/Bowser in the Villains Contest.
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