GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 756

HaRRicH | Posted 11/8/2009 11:15:27 AM | message detail
This next contest-format better be good.....


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
---
Nominate Punch-Out's DOC LOUIS: T E A M C H O C O L A T E
www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=51988233
paulg235 | Posted 11/8/2009 11:19:36 AM | message detail
Royal Rumble Format

best format ever

---
The Gamer In Me
My Signature's broken, just like your front door.
voltch | Posted 11/8/2009 6:17:22 PM | message detail
I want a shot at that $400 vouchers damnit.
---
Shakes Fist!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/8/2009 6:21:56 PM | message detail
And for a game as popular as Fallout 3, we should get a character from it, and Vault Boy is by far the best choice. I can't think of anyone else who'd have any real recognizability like Vault Boy would.
---
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/weegee.png
paulg235 | Posted 11/8/2009 6:23:36 PM | message detail
Vault boy would fry in the contest. Just saying.
---
The Gamer In Me
My Signature's broken, just like your front door.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/8/2009 6:23:57 PM | message detail
In a few years I won't know who most of the new characters are. Guess that's what happens when you don't play video games any more......though I never played many games to start with.
---
Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
voltch | Posted 11/8/2009 6:29:52 PM | message detail
Vault boy will probably be way below the fodder line.
---
Shakes Fist!
HaRRicH | Posted 11/8/2009 11:37:23 PM | message detail
Vault Boy's much more iconic of Fallout 3 and the Fallout series in general than generic avatar Axel Steel, Vault Boy is much more recognizable than Axel Steel by the GameFAQs audience, Vault Boy is completely plastered all over Fallout 3, even in the menus, compared to Axel Steel who even GH vets probably don't really remember about, and even just general character design appeal and a gimmicky appeal that might get a stray joke vote or two.

Aside from the joke-votes, it sounds like Vault Boy is to Fallout as the Lambda logo is to Half-Life then...and I'm not taking that symbol to win squat.
---
Nominate Punch-Out's DOC LOUIS: T E A M C H O C O L A T E
www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=51988233
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/8/2009 11:39:21 PM | message detail
Link
Lucario
Bayonetta
Vault Boy
---
Yoblazer: http://i29.tinypic.com/dqhyf5.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/8/2009 11:54:17 PM | message detail
Link > Bayonetta

In a fair fight, I'm not sure I would take Lucario over Bayonetta or Vault Boy. With Link there, Lucario is getting last. Bayonetta is weak, but I think Fallout Boy is weaker. I think Link will push for 60% as well.
---
KrahenProphet, he come to town! Come to win the GameFAQs Contest!
Congrats to KrahenProphet on winning the Best Game Ever 2009 Guru Contest!
HaRRicH | Posted 11/9/2009 12:24:45 AM | message detail
Aim high, Link. Link > Bayonetta assuming the game's out and isn't pulling a Sackboy.


Speaking of which, what do we expect from Sackboy this year? LBP wasn't out for his match last year (which also had him dealing with Solid Snake), and it had to deal with MGS4 in both its PS3-GotY and only match in BGE2...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3263
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3353
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3476

...but the one time LBP was able to get away from the PS3-savior, it blew its competition away...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3360

...not that any of its competition was very strong in the original-GotY, but it also easily doubled every game there too. If you look at the competition in their other GotY-polls, it could land anywhere from Gears 2 to GTA4, which could make it one of the top five games from last year. Pretty solid for an original PS3-exclusive, and we already know Sackboy is likable because of his design and being the first character to get in a contest without a single released game. Now that the PS3 is selling more and hated less, perhaps that could help him too.

So, where would you put Sackboy?
---
Nominate Punch-Out's DOC LOUIS: T E A M C H O C O L A T E
www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=51988233
voltch | Posted 11/9/2009 9:33:30 AM | message detail
I'd say sackboy is a stronger than pre uncharted 2 Nathan Drake just cos people have actually played his game now.
---
Shakes Fist!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/9/2009 9:37:16 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #009
Link
Lucario
Bayonetta
Vault Boy


Link > Vault Boy

just cuz Bayonetta should also be SFF'd by Link due to it being similiar demographic, japanese action games, while Fallout 3 is a completely different demogaphic that shouldn't be SFF'd as much.
---
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/weegee.png
paulg235 | Posted 11/9/2009 9:43:33 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
paulg235 | Posted 11/9/2009 9:45:44 AM | message detail
Link: 66.87%
Lucario: 11.12%
Bayonetta: 13.6%
Vault Boy: 8.41%

Link would likely double them all, they're all weaklings.
---
The Gamer In Me
My Signature's broken, just like your front door.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/9/2009 9:46:52 AM | message detail
Link: 65%
Lucario: 8%
Bayonetta: 13%
Vault Boy: 14%
---
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/weegee.png
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/9/2009 9:48:40 AM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Ocarina_of_Time_vs_Fallout_2_2004

Plus the fact that Fallout 2 got almost 14% back in 2004, back when it was a niche series hardly anyone knew, shows Vault Boy should be able to get AT LEAST that.
---
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/weegee.png
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2009 9:49:49 AM | message detail
games =/= characters

oh my god that felt so good to type the oldest of old points
---
Yoblazer: http://i29.tinypic.com/dqhyf5.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/9/2009 9:53:17 AM | message detail
http://cache.kotaku.com/assets/resources/2007/07/bloodymesscake1thu.jpg

best cake ever
---
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/weegee.png
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 11/9/2009 9:55:26 AM | message detail
It doesn't work like that, Albion. Pre-FO3, you'd have to measure Vault Boy's percentage in comparison with the 65-70% Link would get. If anything, Vault Boy would get 14% of that 65%.
---
Placeholder anti-capslock sig.
charmander6000 | Posted 11/9/2009 10:22:19 AM | message detail
I'd say sackboy is a stronger than pre uncharted 2 Nathan Drake just cos people have actually played his game now.

Sackboy was already stronger than pre-uncharted 2 Nathan Drake before the release of LBP



Also Link > Lucario until further notice.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
charmander6000 | Posted 11/9/2009 10:41:29 AM | message detail
Going back to FO3 the game took a hit between GotY and the contest.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
HaRRicH | Posted 11/9/2009 10:53:06 AM | message detail
Yeah, Sackboy was already in position to beat Nathan Drake last year. Getting doubled by CATS is embarrassing. Now that Uncharted 2 and the PS3 have gotten some traction though, maybe it could be a match today. Let's try this:

Altair
CATS
Nathan Drake
Sackboy
---
Nominate Punch-Out's DOC LOUIS: T E A M C H O C O L A T E
www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=51988233
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 11/9/2009 11:04:55 AM | message detail
Altair takes number 1 easy there, but those two scrubs have no chance to survive make their time if CATS gets a face pic. So CATS assuming user submitted pics. Nate just isn't an attractive character design wise (nothing too remarkable about him), and getting split with Sackboy is likely to hurt both of them.
---
Placeholder anti-capslock sig.
voltch | Posted 11/9/2009 11:22:44 AM | message detail
replace CATS with Bayonetta and i think we get an even better 4pack.
---
Shakes Fist!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/9/2009 11:48:37 AM | message detail
I'm expecting Nathan Drake to be a lot stronger this time around then before. Maybe even a low midcarder. Uncharted 2 was a much bigger hit then the first, plus PS3 has become a lot more accepted around here since the 2008 contest.
---
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://www.g4g.it/g4g/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Dragon_Age_Origins_01.jpg
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/9/2009 12:19:18 PM | message detail
Does Uncharted 2 actually give the player more of a reason to care about Nathan Drake compared to Uncharted 1?
---
KrahenProphet, he come to town! Come to win the GameFAQs Contest!
Congrats to KrahenProphet on winning the Best Game Ever 2009 Guru Contest!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/9/2009 12:20:32 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #027
Does Uncharted 2 actually give the player more of a reason to care about Nathan Drake compared to Uncharted 1?


-shrug- I don't know, I haven't played it... but since Uncharted 2 I have noticed that Nathan Drake seems more prominant in gaming and more people know about him. They even talk about Nathan Drake as the "Best action adventure hero of this generation" on the commercials lawl
---
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://www.g4g.it/g4g/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Dragon_Age_Origins_01.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 11/9/2009 12:24:08 PM | message detail
It does better compare to the first one.

If a contest was to be held right now I can see Nathan being high-level fodder, but like Marcus Fenix and Fallout 3 Nathan will soon be forgotten again.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2009 12:28:48 PM | message detail
Just the fact that it's being talked about as a "game of the generation" contender should help Drake. Maybe he'll contend with CATS now, although that gap was pretty big last year.
---
Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HaRRicH | Posted 11/9/2009 2:14:19 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, Uncharted took a respectable second place in the PS3-GotY in 2007, but it still lost to a R&C-game which then lost to every game but Crysis in the overall-GotY. I don't know what Uncharted 2's main competition will be in the PS3-GotY this year (I assume the new R&C-game), but considering the attention it's gotten lately in this booming time for the PS3, it needs to really show up in that poll and prove people now at least have a reason to care about Nathan Drake. It will be hard to take it seriously if it loses to another R&C-game since we've never seen anything good come from that series in our contest.
---
Nominate Punch-Out's DOC LOUIS: T E A M C H O C O L A T E
www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=51988233
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/9/2009 2:22:17 PM | message detail
I dont think theres any question it will demolish the PS3 poll this year
---
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://www.g4g.it/g4g/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Dragon_Age_Origins_01.jpg
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 11/9/2009 3:00:21 PM | message detail
Yes, but it doesn't just have to demolish. If it doesn't break 45-50, I don't see it letting Nate win against Face CATS, which says a lot about how much ground he has to cover. As I said, his character design isn't attractive. It isn't 'cool' or iconic enough, and that the majority of the votes right there.
---
Placeholder anti-capslock sig.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/9/2009 3:02:54 PM | message detail
His character design isn't any worse then Leon Kennedy or Solid Snake, and they are strong.
---
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://www.g4g.it/g4g/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Dragon_Age_Origins_01.jpg
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 11/9/2009 3:06:40 PM | message detail
...You didn't SERIOUSLY compare Nate to Snake, right? I really like him as a character and all, but Snake's design is both iconic and very, very badass. When you look at Nate, he doesn't give off that vibe.

Leon is, admittedly, a bit tricker. I think he's a case where the majority of his strength is derived from being the star of an absolute classic that was available to two ridiculously huge fanbases. Sort of like what Nate could get if the install base of the PS3 wasn't lolworthy.
---
Placeholder anti-capslock sig.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/9/2009 3:09:37 PM | message detail
Snakes design is iconic because he's been around for a long time so people recognize him, and I believe Nathan looks badass as well. But he's still just a normal looking guy like Nathan is, unlike a lot of our stronger characters who are furries, anime or have weird and colorful body types.
---
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://www.g4g.it/g4g/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Dragon_Age_Origins_01.jpg
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/9/2009 3:09:52 PM | message detail
His character design isn't any worse then Leon Kennedy or Solid Snake, and they are strong.

I can't say I agree with that. I'm not quite sure what exactly it is Nathan lacks, but he's not as "cool" as Snake or Leon.
---
KrahenProphet, he come to town! Come to win the GameFAQs Contest!
Congrats to KrahenProphet on winning the Best Game Ever 2009 Guru Contest!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/9/2009 3:10:50 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #037
His character design isn't any worse then Leon Kennedy or Solid Snake, and they are strong.

I can't say I agree with that. I'm not quite sure what exactly it is Nathan lacks, but he's not as "cool" as Snake or Leon.


I think he's cool since he's a treasuer hunter. He reminds me a bit of like Indiana Jones, just without the archeology part. And Indiana Jones is a badass and a cool character.
---
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://www.g4g.it/g4g/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Dragon_Age_Origins_01.jpg
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/9/2009 3:13:18 PM | message detail
Snake and Nate are very similar, some people need to get off snake's nads for a moment to see that. They're both happy go lucky old school male macho hero types who play by their own rules to get what they want. Snake is far more mellow while Nate is more in your face and wise cracking, like a non-vulgar Duke Nukem.

This iconic design business is a bit "ehh" and Nate probably has more on his badass resume than Snake. If nothing else he hasn't appeared in a Nintendo party game.
---
Smurf , The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 11/9/2009 4:14:59 PM | message detail
For the record, Solid Snake is bad-ass enough to be in a Nintendo party-game yet not lose any respect for it, and nobody would like Duke Nukem if he didn't cuss and pay strippers to work it. I can't say anything about Drake character-wise, but I can comment on their looks. Solid and Duke look like real bad-asses...while, from the pictures I've seen, Nathan looks like an actor playing a bad-ass. He's a little too pretty/trendy/fashionable and I don't get he's physically built to kill like them either, so I can't put him on their same level appearance-wise.

Action-star would fit the bill for him if we're labeling the guy, but I'm going to need to see more to convince me he's bad-ass like Snake and Duke.
---
Nominate Punch-Out's DOC LOUIS: T E A M C H O C O L A T E
www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=51988233
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 11/9/2009 4:17:23 PM | message detail
I'll go ahead and predict Nathan to be at Marcus' level.
---
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2uf7sro&s=4
charmander6000 | Posted 11/9/2009 4:32:17 PM | message detail
2007 or 2008 Marcus?
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 11/9/2009 4:35:09 PM | message detail
2008. Nathan's not going to jump too much.
---
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2uf7sro&s=4
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 11/9/2009 4:39:12 PM | message detail
HaR nailed it, pretty much. Snake, Duke, Kratos, Ryu Hayabusa...all of those look...rough, for lack of a better term, and all of them but Duke (who's partially comical) draw from being badasses to gain votes (Snake gets respect too, but that isn't that big). Nate just looks so much more...normal, like an everyday everyman which he is, that he doesn't really manage to draw from that same pool.
---
Placeholder anti-capslock sig.
ZFS | Posted 11/9/2009 5:05:47 PM | message detail
Drake should be much stronger than he was last time, if only because his game has gotten significantly popular since then. Uncharted is a legit series now with whole lot of fans who love it and him. Doesn't mean he's going to be Leon Kennedy strong or anything, but he should be able to beat most of the new characters from this gen.

---
the journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step
voltch | Posted 11/9/2009 5:37:03 PM | message detail
yeah, looking normal doesn't help much, a guy like dante you know from his design that he is a badass who fights in an ultra cool way and drake doesn't have that.
btw
Drake vs Chris Redfield
Sheva vs Bayonetta
---
Shakes Fist!
charmander6000 | Posted 11/9/2009 5:45:23 PM | message detail
Chris > Drake
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
voltch | Posted 11/9/2009 5:48:00 PM | message detail
Chris was already the weakest of the big 4 RE characters and now that he's got a game with huge backlash under his belt, will that hurt him or is for fodder all exposure, good exposure?
---
Shakes Fist!
charmander6000 | Posted 11/9/2009 5:55:44 PM | message detail
Dante boosted because of Devil May Cry 2.

Bad exposure is better than no exposure.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
HaRRicH | Posted 11/9/2009 6:16:53 PM | message detail
From what I've understood, RE5-backlash has been exaggerated...and even if it hasn't been, as already mentioned, Dante boosted from DMC2. I also don't think Chris has been playable since REmake, so it should be good for him. He actually didn't do bad pre-RE5:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3264

He shouldn't be beating Fox, but the match should be reasonably closer nowadays.
---
Nominate Punch-Out's DOC LOUIS: T E A M C H O C O L A T E
www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=51988233