GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 755

UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/16/2009 6:17:29 PM | message detail
XFD rofl bad u mad? QQ



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
TurnTurnTurn your brain in.
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 9/17/2009 4:57:54 AM | message detail
no moar tears
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/18/2009 12:17:09 PM | message detail
qq
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.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.
"You're not a good person. You know that, right?"
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/19/2009 10:56:14 PM | message detail
XD
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone has one and no one thinks theirs stinks." -Lunar 2
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 9/20/2009 6:21:30 AM | message detail
bawl
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/21/2009 3:56:16 AM | message detail
bawwwwrl
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"Every man lives. Not every man truly dies."
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 9/21/2009 5:04:44 AM | message detail
wahhhhhhhhhhh
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/22/2009 7:33:48 PM | message detail
XFD rofl bad u mad? QQ
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Q: How do you find Carnegie Hall?
A: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exOxUAntx8I
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 9/22/2009 7:42:07 PM | message detail
butthurt
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
TheRye | Posted 9/23/2009 3:57:47 AM | message detail
Tag
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The Rye - The one and only...
http://backloggery.com/the_rye/sig.gif
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/23/2009 5:57:02 PM | message detail
false
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
You're not a good person. You know that, right?
charmander6000 | Posted 9/23/2009 7:00:09 PM | message detail
Radiant Dawn > PoR
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
HaRRicH | Posted 9/24/2009 9:01:58 PM | message detail
FACT or FICTION-time, in hopes of starting some discussion here...and hey, we'll go with a Nintendo-theme to try seeing where some new Nintendo guys may stand on the Nintendo-ladder according to some of last year's matches.

FACT or FICTION: Charizard > Mewtwo > Midna > Ness
FACT or FICTION: Yoshi > Red > Epona > Fox
FACT or FICTION: Pikachu > Little Mac > Ike > Captain Falcon > Diddy Kong > Waluigi
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
red sox 777 | Posted 9/24/2009 9:07:42 PM | message detail
FICTION: Charizard > Mewtwo > Midna > Ness

I don't think Charizard is that strong- put him below Midna and possibly Ness.

FICTION: Yoshi > Red > Epona > Fox

Epona may have some strength, but Fox is only a little below Yoshi- he's a legit midcarder. I think Red has potential to be the strongest in this four-pack, but that's already been discussed a lot.

FICTION: Pikachu > Little Mac > Ike > Captain Falcon > Diddy Kong > Waluigi

I don't think Little Mac is stronger than Ike or Falcon.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
Big Bob | Posted 9/24/2009 9:10:16 PM | message detail
FACT: Smurf lost the bet and needs to man up.
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Ragna the Bloodedge...
YOU'RE STUPID!
Xeybozn | Posted 9/25/2009 5:28:47 AM | message detail
FACT: Charizard > Mewtwo > Midna > Ness

Charizard just seems like more people remember him compared to Mewtwo, I guess. Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Midna could beat Charizard/Mewtwo in 1v1.

FICTION: Yoshi > Red > Epona > Fox

It just doesn't feel right to take Epona > Fox. I mean, who really cares about Epona?

FICTION: Pikachu > Little Mac > Ike > Captain Falcon > Diddy Kong > Waluigi

I'd have Little Mac under Falcon personally.
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Congrats to KrahenProfit
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/25/2009 5:31:44 AM | message detail
FACT or FICTION: Charizard > Mewtwo > Midna > Ness

FACT. Just seems pretty logical.

FACT or FICTION: Yoshi > Red > Epona > Fox

FICTION. Fox is good stuff, the order's probably Yoshi>=Fox>>>>>>Epona>>Red.

FACT or FICTION: Pikachu > Little Mac > Ike > Captain Falcon > Diddy Kong > Waluigi

FICTION. Little Mac stronger than Falcon? man wat

Pikachu>Ike>Falcon>Diddy>Mac>Waluigi in the family
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 9/25/2009 6:40:46 AM | message detail
Charizard > Mewtwo > Ness > Midna
Yoshi > Fox > Red > Epona
Pikachu > Captain Falcon > Ike > Diddy Kong > Little Mac > Waluigi
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
Xeybozn | Posted 9/25/2009 7:47:31 AM | message detail
What do you guys think of this eightpack?

1. Master Chief
8. Duke Nukem

4. Gordon Freeman
5. Magus

3. Tidus
6. Zero

2. Pikachu
7. Knuckles
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Congrats to KrahenProfit
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/25/2009 7:49:39 AM | message detail
Pika gotta be the favorite there. He's miles above the rest, except maybe Zero. Gordon COULD threaten, if his stunning showings in GameSpot give him a boost here.
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 9/25/2009 8:00:12 AM | message detail
Master Chief > Gordon Freeman
Pikachu > Zero

Master Chief > Pikachu

Bonus Gamespot Prediction:

Gordon Freeman > Duke Nukem
Pikachu > Zero

Gordon Freeman > Pikachu
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2009 11:21:48 AM | message detail
FICTION: Charizard > Mewtwo > Midna > Ness

I'd take Mewtwo >= Charizard, though I doubt there's a big difference between them.


FICTION: Yoshi > Red > Epona > Fox

Fox > Epona for me, too...but I'd be interested in seeing how well Epona could hold up in that match. She's a fun and anticipated addition in every LoZ-game she's in, and I think he's more respected than Midna or especially Tingle. Let's throw in that she's probably got more LoZ-appearances than any other LoZ-characters barring the big three, too. All she needs is a SSB-appearance...haha.


FACT: Pikachu > Little Mac > Ike > Captain Falcon > Diddy Kong > Waluigi

Punch-Out's arguably more respected than F-Zero or Fire Emblem, and Little Mac means more to his games than CF does (and Ike, as I understand it, though I'd need confirmation). He's been around the longest, too. Let's not forget he's got the newest game that's currently selling well and we've never seen him get a fair chance, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt here. That said, the SSB-series would probably be the difference-maker here...I'll bank against it this time though.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2009 11:23:02 AM | message detail
1. Master Chief
4. Gordon Freeman
6. Zero
2. Pikachu

1. Master Chief
2. Pikachu

2. Pikachu
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/25/2009 9:57:42 PM | message detail
1. Master Chief
8. Duke Nukem

4. Gordon Freeman
5. Magus

3. Tidus
6. Zero

2. Pikachu
7. Knuckles

Duke > Chief, why not?
Gordon > Magus
Zero > TEE-DUS
Knuckles > Pikachu, in a 1v1 environment I'd have faith in Knuckles there

Gordon > Duke
Zero > Knuckles

GORDON > ZERO AW YEAH
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"WHAT'S THE MATTER, SCARED??"
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 9/26/2009 4:35:41 AM | message detail
I don't see Epona being anything but fodder, personally. Being from the Zelda series didn't do Tingle or Midna any favors. I figure Epona would be in the same ballpark as Midgar Zolom.

And I don't think Punch-Out!! boosted Little Mac out of fodder status. I still wouldn't choose him over two characters that were playable in Brawl. Diddy maybe, since he's pretty damn weak anyway. Hell, I wouldn't be shocked if he was snubbed this year.

So when is the 2010 Character Contest going to start?
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
voltch | Posted 9/26/2009 4:44:34 AM | message detail
yeah but Epona isn't hated like Tingle is and is much better known overall.
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Shakes Fist!
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 9/26/2009 4:47:16 AM | message detail
She's well-known, but she's not appealing enough to get votes besides joke votes, and even then she's more of a CATS than a L-Block.

At best, I'd figure she'd do as well as Cait Sith would.
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
voltch | Posted 9/26/2009 4:51:16 AM | message detail
though cait sith is just asking for antivotes.
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Shakes Fist!
HaRRicH | Posted 9/26/2009 8:19:18 AM | message detail
Epona would probably beat the tar out of Midna head-to-head. You probably see her more than any other LoZ-character outside of Link (and Navi, who WOULD be a joke), has her song etched into many of our minds, and is featured in LoZ:OoT -- Tingle and Midna can't say they have a significant part in the biggest game on GameFAQs.

Besides, think about how much we've argued about Zack Fair's role in FF7 and how much that meant for his popularity...and you see Epona more in LoZ:OoT while being more helpful and in more games (though she doesn't have her own handheld-game, to be fair..get on that, Nintendo). Comparisons to Cait Sith and Midgar Zolom are silly; Cait is the most hated character from one of the most hated casts in history AND he wasn't particularly useful, while Zolom was a one-battle enemy that got especially embarrassed in its match due to Cloud. If Epona stole important items behind your back or had a match with Link, I'd expect her to lose bad too.

Joke-votes are gravy, but Epona would be able to hold her own without them. I don't mean to insinuate she'll be close to Zack strength-wise, but she's had more face-time in more big-name games and we've argued a LOT about whether FF7 or CC:FF7 meant more for Zack. Epona could surprise, and at the least she should be able to beat Midna.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
HaRRicH | Posted 9/26/2009 8:36:25 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
HaRRicH | Posted 9/26/2009 8:42:37 AM | message detail
And yeah, I know I'm putting a lot of faith into Little Mac...but Little Mac was really bad-ass back in the day and the new PO-game has captured that same kind of magic. The difference is now PO is new again and it's sold better than the games CF and Ike have been in lately (excluding SSBB.....). I know VGChartz isn't perfect for capturing sales, but it suggests PO this year has already outsold FE:PoR and FE:RD combined (and I think I've heard it's still going strong), and F-Zero GX sold terribly. We can also talk about Little Mac being fodder a lot, but we've only seen him in two matches: against Link in 2002 and against Ammy and Dante while dealing with another Nintendo boxer. He's been due a fair chance for a long time, and now that he's got a revival with a hot new game, he could make a name for himself against some of these other Nintendo scrubs.

SSB's the difference-maker though, and taking him over Ike is definitely an upset...but I feel fairly confident he would take Captain Falcon in a close one despite being a SSB-original. He's also take Diddy down without a problem, considering how he was embarrassed last year.


Besides, Little Mac's an Assist Trophy. He's got this ****.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 9/26/2009 8:36:26 PM | message detail
I can see Little Mac taking out Diddy because Diddy's pathetically weak. But Falcon's no weakling, and Little Mac has to boost quite a bit from being tripled by Dante to be a threat to a guy who got 40% on Pikachu.

Alright, another ****ing console poll!
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
red sox 777 | Posted 9/26/2009 8:39:28 PM | message detail
I'm all for OOT characters being strong, but the problem with Epona is that she's a horse. For that reason alone, I'd be hesitant about taking her over Midna (though I'd do it) and wouldn't expect her to be anywhere near Zack. I'm not sold on Epona beating Saria head to head.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 9/26/2009 8:43:48 PM | message detail
I could see Epona beating Saria, but both would be so weak that I don't see it mattering. Epona's not a character people actually get attached to, unlike many other characters. Hell, I could see Tingle beating Epona, and Tingle's the worst character of any media in the past, present, and future of all races in this and all other universes.
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
FinalFantasyTactics | Posted 9/26/2009 8:59:02 PM | message detail
The thought of Epona beating the likes of Fox, Captain Falcon, Little Mac, and even Saria really doesn't feel right.
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 9/27/2009 5:43:30 AM | message detail
Actually, I'd like to see Epona/Little Mac.

Yeah, it's a fodder match, but it's definitely an interesting one. Little Mac's right in that area where he's strong enough to beat purely joke characters but not much else, so he'd be a good bar as to whether Epona has any real strength or not.
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/28/2009 12:10:02 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
HaRRicH | Posted 9/28/2009 12:26:15 AM | message detail
SotC-fans got emotional about Agro the horse. Portal-fans got a box with hearts from one level to be a Noble Nine-breaker. Pokemon-fans have nominated and voted for numerous Pokemon (without ever getting a trainer in, while we're at it). SSB-fans made Sandbag beat Magus despite Sonic being in the poll, and he was the character most SSBB-fans wanted to see in the game. Those same people also helped Master Hand win a match once upon a time.

It's pretty clear that you don't have to be a traditional character like what we think of to gain support. You can talk about joke-votes or whatever you like, and there would be no argument from me that Epona would have some of that as support. That said, given the above examples, Epona can't really be dismissed. She's important not just to LoZ:OoT but to the LoZ-series. She has enjoyable music most LoZ-fans have etched in their minds from having played it multiple times. You travel with her, collect with her, attack, race...dammit, she's just a likable horse known by tons of gamers, and that's probably more dangerous than we've given credit for in the past. If Sandbag can beat Magus with a Noble Niner featured in his biggest game -- and even if there wasn't SFF/LFF, that's still a sign of a punching bag having support -- Epona can be respectable.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 9/28/2009 5:34:09 AM | message detail
Argo would be pathetically weak, Pokemon is popular because the Pokemon themselves are popular, and WCC and Sandbag are actually amusing because they're just objects that can appeal to many people. Epona doesn't have the appeal of L-Block, and she's far from the most appealing character in her series. Her only intangibles are that being a dumb horse can get joke votes, and she's from the Zelda series.

I don't see Epona having any real strength. She'd probably beat other fodder, but put her against someone with strength and you'll get one dead horse.
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/28/2009 8:22:02 AM | message detail
Of course Agro is weak -- look at Wander. It doesn't change that people cared about a horse in that game though, and if people can care about one horse from one game, people can care about a horse from the biggest franchise here. She doesn't have to be the most appealing character in her series because none of the other examples mentioned are either, though she gets more face-time than most of those examples and most LoZ-characters outside of Link (and Navi, I guess). Getting her is still a highlight/milestone in her games, too. She's also more appealing than Midna or especially Tingle, and Sheik would probably be the only other LoZ-character we haven't seen that would beat her.

We'll probably have to agree to disagree until we see something substantial about Epona though...which could be awhile.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/28/2009 8:49:54 AM | message detail
Unless Bacon posts something soon, this will be our first contest that crosses over between different years, and I think that alone puts the possibility of another spring contest in jeopardy. Has he mentioned anything about waiting for GameSpot's to end before starting our Character Battle?
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Yoblazer: http://i39.tinypic.com/16kxfma.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/28/2009 9:15:34 AM | message detail
Portal-fans got a box with hearts from one level to be a Noble Nine-breaker.

It's in two levels.
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Q: How do you find Carnegie Hall?
A: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exOxUAntx8I
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/28/2009 9:16:09 AM | message detail
Also: I think SotC is the worst game ever made (seriously) and even I cried about the horse.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone has one and no one thinks theirs stinks." -Lunar 2
HaRRicH | Posted 9/28/2009 11:04:16 AM | message detail
It's been awhile since I've played Portal, my bad...what's the other mission? I'm thinking of the one where you incinerate it at the end.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
red sox 777 | Posted 9/28/2009 3:26:44 PM | message detail
Speaking of Sheik, I think she could be a near elite- as in possibly at or above the level of Ganondorf and Zelda. I'm not sure if she's allowed in the contest, but if she is- I need to nominate her.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/28/2009 3:29:23 PM | message detail
Why would she? Super Smash Bros. can only do so much and besides Zelda and Ganondorf are already in that game, they're just not as popular. Besides Shiek's role in LoZ is tiny compare to Zelda and Ganondorf.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/28/2009 3:32:59 PM | message detail
Sheik probably gets more screen time than Zelda or Ganondorf, and she manages to be cooler than either. There are so many nostalgic moments with Sheik - way more than any other character from the game. Sheik with harp = my heart cries.
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Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
red sox 777 | Posted 9/28/2009 3:33:18 PM | message detail
But Sheik's role in OOT, the biggest Zelda game, is pretty huge. She is also a lot more likable and "cool" than either Zelda or Ganondorf. Zelda in particular often seems like a generic princess that needs to be rescued.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 9/28/2009 3:45:52 PM | message detail
I think Sheik would be decently strong. Definitely not near-elite, but Sheik could probably hold her (his?) own in the competition. Hell, s/he probably is the fourth strongest Zelda character overall, that or Toon Link.
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
red sox 777 | Posted 9/28/2009 4:44:40 PM | message detail
I feel like Sheik is comparable to Vincent, in a way (although I like Sheik much more as a character). She's the cool, shadowy, mysterious, character of OOT, like Vincent is of FFVII.
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Link he come to town to dominate all other characters and trample them down with his sword of more votes.