GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 754

UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/6/2009 9:08:01 PM | message detail
Gmail > Hotmail forever



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/6/2009 9:09:48 PM | message detail
Contest announcement time.
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"Many stories ended here today, but yours goes on, I see."
charmander6000 | Posted 8/7/2009 10:04:11 AM | message detail
Hopefully the contest is announced before this topic ends.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 8/7/2009 10:11:46 AM | message detail
It is something I estimated, but thats because PC games are very hard to get true numbers for compared to console releases. Its estimated at about 20+ mil by most people, though.
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http://i41.tinypic.com/4qpibl.jpg
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 8/7/2009 10:13:38 AM | message detail
honestly though, do you REALLY think its only 12 million when theres 12 million subscribers? That no one has EVER quit? Thats just silly. Most likely the sales numbers you found were just subscirbers.
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charmander6000 | Posted 8/7/2009 10:22:18 AM | message detail
It is something I estimated, but thats because PC games are very hard to get true numbers for compared to console releases. Its estimated at about 20+ mil by most people, though.

I must be looking in the wrong places then since I haven't found anyone who has said that...

honestly though, do you REALLY think its only 12 million when theres 12 million subscribers? That no one has EVER quit? Thats just silly. Most likely the sales numbers you found were just subscirbers.

I'm assuming that ~6 million players are online during the high times. 12 million is low, but I've found nothing that suggests higher so I'm working with what I got.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
TheRye | Posted 8/7/2009 10:23:37 AM | message detail
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The Rye - The one and only...
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Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 8/7/2009 10:25:18 AM | message detail
12 million are people who are actively paying 15 dollars a month. And like the Gamefaqs poll I showed, like 16% of people on gamefaqs are active players, and 18% have quit.

so by the 20 million estimate, thats saying only 8 million people have quit, even lower then what Gamefaqs poll shows. Now do you see why thats a conservative estimate to begin with?

Plus, I challenge you to find concrete sales numbers on any mmorpg; not just active subscribers. ITs the type of genre thats very hard to do from all the ways to access them (10 day cards, downloading from the website, buying from the store, pirating, etc)
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TheOceIot | Posted 8/7/2009 10:25:51 AM | message detail
I'd estimate that WoW has sold around 15 million.
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All hail KrahenProphet
charmander6000 | Posted 8/7/2009 10:29:13 AM | message detail
Using GameFAQs is a bad idea since it loves to be different than other major websites.

Besides some of those people could have tried the free trial or even play it at a friend's house.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
TheOceIot | Posted 8/7/2009 10:31:09 AM | message detail
Interestingly enough the NPD group actually revealed that U.S. sales for WoW to date (including expansions and whatnot) are 8.6 million.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=24518
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All hail KrahenProphet
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 8/7/2009 10:38:01 AM | message detail
And as far as I know, Asia actually outdoes US in terms of subscribers, and Europe is a huge market too

World of Warcraft was the best-selling PC game of 2005 and 2006.[65] As of January 22, 2008, World of Warcraft has surpassed 10 million subscribers worldwide, with more than 2 million subscribers in Europe, more than 2.5 million in North America, and about 5.5 million in Asia.[66]

-from wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_of_warcraft
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/7/2009 8:13:11 PM | message detail
up
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"You are the king of derailing topics." -Lucid
charmander6000 | Posted 8/7/2009 8:58:31 PM | message detail
I wonder which region has the biggest party animals.

Europe or South America?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
charmander6000 | Posted 8/7/2009 9:01:52 PM | message detail
Europe takes it easily!
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/7/2009 9:05:00 PM | message detail
This was from the previous topic:

LeonhartFour | Posted 8/6/2009 11:59:43 PM | message detail
Schools start back here tomorrow, so we should be easing back into ASV trends soon enough.


I don't know why schools would start on a Friday. That's pretty odd. The schools in my area usually start on a Tuesday, although I'm sure there are schools that start on a Monday instead.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2009 9:06:39 PM | message detail
Schools started on Friday here because the first day is just a wasted day anyway, so just go ahead and get it out of the way.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
charmander6000 | Posted 8/7/2009 9:11:28 PM | message detail
Canada starts school on the first Tuesday after the first Monday (Labour Day) of September.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
HaRRicH | Posted 8/8/2009 1:41:28 PM | message detail
So...did Krahenprophet ever say who he wanted people to nominate from the Guru competition?
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49774975
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/8/2009 3:40:40 PM | message detail
No, he's still waiting until the contest is announced.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 8/8/2009 6:59:39 PM | message detail
Good plan, since at this rate we aren't getting a character contest and could very well have a different spring contest.
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
red sox 777 | Posted 8/8/2009 7:02:14 PM | message detail
We never get a contest until we (or at least I) have abandoned all hope. The announcement is always a surprise.
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Krahenprophet he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/8/2009 9:02:33 PM | message detail
Wow, I expected America to be the nation that spends the most time in front of a screen.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/8/2009 9:04:52 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 8/8/2009 9:02:33 PM | #023
Wow, I expected America to be the nation that spends the most time in front of a screen.


Nah, where do you think all the Koreans who practice SC hardcore come from? :P
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/8/2009 9:07:03 PM | message detail
For the record, how do you have a belly button that's in between? I've never seen a belly button that's perfectly even with the stomach.

Not that I'm an expert by any means.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KrahenProphet | Posted 8/8/2009 9:08:49 PM | message detail
So...did Krahenprophet ever say who he wanted people to nominate from the Guru competition?

I heard he's estivating.
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4th place in Summer Contest 2k4
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/8/2009 9:09:45 PM | message detail
LOL, belly button poll today. Innie is going to blow out the competition easily. Of course, I haven't voted yet and I've been making predictions on every poll just for fun. This poll is also one of the rare 3-way polls, since most polls seem to have 5 options or more. 4 or less is pretty uncommon outside of the contests and 3 are pretty rare and 2 option polls mainly for the Male/Female poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/8/2009 9:37:01 PM | message detail
This is odd. I just voted and saw that "Outie" is losing to "in between". I figured "Outie" would be safe for second place. Maybe a comeback is still possible.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 8/9/2009 7:13:36 AM | message detail
Innie with over 90%, and nobody's tracking this blowout?
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2009 8:20:22 AM | message detail
Was this unexpected to you?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 8/9/2009 8:30:39 AM | message detail
only freaks have outies, its not surprising
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2009 11:29:53 AM | message detail
Innie with over 90%, and nobody's tracking this blowout?

I'm doing a trend chart just for fun. Just to see if there's any noticeable trend shifts or if it stays relatively even all day. I won't be posting it, unless someone requests me to.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2009 9:03:12 PM | message detail
I thought the lesser time options would be higher. Maybe it's the board vote.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2009 9:07:37 PM | message detail
The United States had the highest percentage of Innies. Canada and the UK were the only other countries with at least 90% or higher for Innie.

Italy was the country with the lowest percentage of Innies:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3570&region=IT
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2009 9:15:30 PM | message detail
Canada and the UK were the only other countries with at least 90% or higher for Innie.

I also forgot Australia too. And Oceania as a whole.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2009 9:39:17 PM | message detail
A total of 3 user submitted polls in a row. Assuming this were to continue for a few more days, I really hope my poll is run soon. I submitted it about 2 1/2 months ago.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
charmander6000 | Posted 8/11/2009 9:03:48 PM | message detail
Both North America and Asia seem to be pro-multiplayer.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/12/2009 4:09:21 AM | message detail
One third of the site has never heard of any of those titles... what gives?

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HaRRicH | Posted 8/12/2009 8:49:20 AM | message detail
Go Road Rash!
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49774975
plasmabeam | Posted 8/12/2009 8:54:29 AM | message detail
This dawned on me while my friend and I were firing up MMAC last night:

How the hell hasn't Bass slipped into one of these 120-Character contests yet?

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~Jacksonville Jaguars~
HaRRicH | Posted 8/12/2009 9:14:36 AM | message detail
We saw Sigma, Dr. Wily, and Protoman within a year after MMAC's release, and they all did pretty bad. It doesn't help that Roll did poorly even in context of the Female Bracket, too. Now that we're three-five years further away from Mega Man's prime than when we last saw the above characters, it's easy to assume Bass would wilt to most competition.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49774975
HaRRicH | Posted 8/12/2009 9:16:17 AM | message detail
I should note he used to be one of our more requested/in-demand snubs once upon a time...but he stayed a snub and Mega Man became less relevant. It'd be a surprise to see him in a contest at this point.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49774975
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/12/2009 2:00:42 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
XxSoulxX | Posted 8/12/2009 2:02:53 PM | message detail
One third of the site has never heard of any of those titles... what gives?

It's most likely that most people don't care about those games so they voted that way.
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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename
charmander6000 | Posted 8/12/2009 5:51:55 PM | message detail
I should note he used to be one of our more requested/in-demand snubs once upon a time...

Not really, there was a push during 2005, but nothing compare to Charizard or Seifer.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
HaRRicH | Posted 8/12/2009 5:56:09 PM | message detail
True, it was never on that level. It was still a pretty common name to see in mock-brackets during that time though.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49774975
charmander6000 | Posted 8/12/2009 6:01:14 PM | message detail
True, though even at that time we all expected him to be nothing, but fodder.

I'd still like to give Dr. Wily & Dr. Robotnik a try in the main bracket, even if they'll be destroyed.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/12/2009 6:03:02 PM | message detail
Wily got beat easily by Ocelot. That's all we need to know about him. Plus, Mega Man has fallen off in the last couple of years, I think, so I think he'd be even weaker than 2005.

Robotnik nearly got beat by a fin, for cryin' out loud.

Man, the Villains Contest was sad.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
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charmander6000 | Posted 8/12/2009 6:11:17 PM | message detail
Those are more fan picks.

CATS > half the villains bracket

lol Villain Contest
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest
charmander6000 | Posted 8/12/2009 9:01:47 PM | message detail
Looks like Theme Park would have a crazy night vote.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3573&region=EUR
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest