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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 752

red sox 777 | Posted 7/18/2009 9:13:06 PM | message detail
Well, we might as well make ranking lists again, now that we're a month away from the end of the contest and thoughts have condensed.

Tier 1
1. Ocarina of Time
2. Final Fantasy VII

~13-14 point gap

Tier 2
3. A Link to the Past
4. Super Mario 64
5. Chrono Trigger
6. Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow

~2 point gap

Tier 3
7. Super Smash Bros. Melee
8. Super Mario World
9. Super Mario Bros. 3
10. Super Smash Bros. Brawl
11. Final Fantasy X
12. Metal Gear Solid

Each tier is approximately 2-3 points from top to bottom. Generally, if 2 games are in the same tier, that means it would not be surprising to me to see either win 1v1. Some games from lower tiers beating some from higher tiers would not cause surprise either.

I'm not going to rank the rest of the top 20, both because I think tier 3 is a nice place to end the list and because I have no clue how the rest of the top 20 looks.
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charmander6000 | Posted 7/18/2009 9:15:04 PM | message detail
I'd merge tier 2 and 3 with maybe cutting off FFX and MGS
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 7/18/2009 9:20:29 PM | message detail
Didn't LttP/Mario64/CT technically perform worse in the stats than FFX? I'm not sure it's been a while. Why are they put so high?
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Meeks54 | Posted 7/18/2009 9:22:14 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #403
Didn't LttP/Mario64/CT technically perform worse in the stats than FFX? I'm not sure it's been a while. Why are they put so high?




Well, ALttP beat FF X in the same match when they were both being sffed by the 2 monsters. So I don't see anyway that FF X>ALttP could be.
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charmander6000 | Posted 7/18/2009 9:23:31 PM | message detail
Technically, but there was so much LFF and SFF in the top half and even despite that LttP and SM64 are comparable.
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red sox 777 | Posted 7/18/2009 9:29:24 PM | message detail
Didn't LttP/Mario64/CT technically perform worse in the stats than FFX? I'm not sure it's been a while. Why are they put so high?

That depends entirely on which matches you use to extrapolate the stats. The clearest comparison is probably round 5: LTTP and FFX put up almost identical numbers on FFVII and OOT, respectively. However, LTTP was hindered by SMW and SMB3, while FFX was helped by Brawl.

Looking at round 4, again they put up similar numbers on FFVII and OOT, but this time LTTP was in a presumably fair match with SM64 and FFVI offsetting each other, while FFX was the beneficiary of triple LFF.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/19/2009 7:13:07 AM | message detail
It's hard to say anything very definitive about tiers, but I've become a fan of RBY being on-par with games like LoZ:LttP or better. We saw it beat LoZ:MM twice -- once with its colored sequel (why does that feel racist?), beat MGS despite LoZ:OoT, directly and easily outdo SSBM while LoZ:OoT was present, and indirectly outdo what SSBB did to LoZ:OoT...and most of us doubted it every step of the way (barring a select few; KP comes to mind). Remember how we thought LoZ:LttP would stand up well to LoZ:OoT? RBY did much better against LoZ:OoT twice. We can look back to the first BGE and see both SM64 and GE were beaten far worse by LoZ:OoT, too. Even in previous character battles, we could see from Pikachu that things were changing; it didn't do too bad against MC-on-Game-Fuel or Dante despite Luigi, and it was probably closer to Crono and Vincent last year despite Samus. There are exceptions and footnotes to be made from these examples, sure, but that's a very strong case and a hell of a resume to argue against.

Furthermore, it just makes sense that Pokemon would be big here: an RPG by Nintendo from the "32-64 Bit" era that became one of the best-selling games of all-time and had a TV show to compliment it? Yeah, that should be pretty popular. I know it wasn't always the case on GameFAQs or elsewhere, but Pokemon's in the big leagues now and shouldn't be continuously doubted like it still is sometimes. LoZ:OoT/RBY/SSBM/FFX is a lot like Link/Mario/Samus/Crono, yet it feels like there are more than a few supporters of SSBM > RBY still out there (and I think I've heard doubts of RBY > FFX, too)...even after RBY did better on LoZ:OoT with SSBM than SSBB did on LoZ:OoT by itself, people still are unsure about RBY taking one of them down. Who wants to take Samus or Crono over Mario right now? Why should RBY be treated differently from Mario in this scenario?


Just saying...I get SFF isn't a wonderful thing to rely on and RBY is unique as a hand-held game with some hard-core fans, but RBY is to hand-helds as LoZ:OoT is to Nintendo or FF7 is to Square, and ~78% of the site has a current portable system compared to ~88.5% having a current console. That's not a huge difference and there is plenty of overlap to be had. If people are THAT hardcore for a black-and-white game they play with a tiny screen that it can beat, outdo, or look to defeat under fair circumstances multiple games we've put in preliminary Top Ten lists despite LoZ:OoT...it's got my respect. I'll give it the #3 spot until it gives me reason not to.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49774975
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/19/2009 10:13:12 AM | message detail
I'm still curious how L-Block's rally was cheating. Virtually the entire internet was rallying for it that day.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/19/2009 10:30:04 AM | message detail
One more fun thing: here's a comparison of how Nintendo games have performed directly against LoZ:OoT from the two BGE-contests...

RBY - 36.9%
RBY (with SSBM) - 33.84%
SSBB - 29.98%
GE - 26.95% [almost Nintendo]
SSBM (with RBY) - 26.25%
SM64 - 23.74%
LoZ:LttP (championship) - 22.67%

...the biggest Nintendo games LoZ:OoT hasn't faced yet would be SMW, SMB3, LoZ:TP, and Pokemon G/S.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49774975
HaRRicH | Posted 7/19/2009 10:31:02 AM | message detail
L-Block didn't cheat, but it doesn't mean it's not bull****.

A victory's a victory though.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49774975
LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2009 11:27:47 AM | message detail
Nobody complains about Snake rallying to beat Cloud, and nobody would've complained (except for MWC, but he complains every time something he likes loses) if he had managed to beat Link either.
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red sox 777 | Posted 7/19/2009 1:41:44 PM | message detail
I was very upset at Snake beating Cloud, and outraged at Snake leading Link for 6 hours. Fortunately Link's day vote saved us....that ASV was a thing of beauty. I don't care that Snake did that through rallying though- I just don't like seeing my favorite characters lose very very important matches.
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red sox 777 | Posted 7/19/2009 1:48:02 PM | message detail
And yes, RBY has a very good shot at #3...it's demonstrated that it is probably a fair step above anything in the bottom half besides OOT, so the question is whether that LTTP/SM64/CT trio is also a step above the next pack in the lower half or not. Instinctively, LTTP > RBY seems natural to me, but that's just instinct. I would love to see RBY face any of those 3 games next contest.
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charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2009 1:57:21 PM | message detail
I'd give Brawl and Melee a chance against RBY and same with SMW/SMB3.
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red sox 777 | Posted 7/19/2009 2:03:16 PM | message detail
It's hard to place SMW and SMB3- they have no matches with the rest of the field other than that triple Nintendo SFF match with LTTP and FFVII. They got killed pretty badly though, and earlier in the contest we saw the LFF between those 2 games is not very bad, so they don't look too good- impossible to say for sure though.
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charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2009 2:15:47 PM | message detail
I'd be really surprised if SM64 is that much stronger than SMW/SMB3.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/19/2009 2:36:31 PM | message detail
Nobody complains about Snake rallying to beat Cloud, and nobody would've complained (except for MWC, but he complains every time something he likes loses) if he had managed to beat Link either.

1) Solid was never a joke character in these contests. L-Block defined the joke.
2) L-Block beat a LOT of characters it shouldn't have beaten. Solid beat one (likely two, but Sephiroth was SFF'd).
3) Solid was rallied to a silver medal. L-Block was rallied to the gold.
4) L-Block's only in Tetris, yet will be in games forever. Solid was in the two biggest games both of last year and since 2002, plus his story-line and character were supposed to end with them.

Largely different circumstances.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49774975
LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2009 2:43:21 PM | message detail
I understand people's beefs with L-Block, but what it did was legit. I don't like it any more than anyone else, but I just accept it for what it is.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/19/2009 6:21:02 PM | message detail
Nobody complains about Snake rallying to beat Cloud

If it wasn't for Sephiroth in that match, Snake may never have been able to defeat Cloud.

I was very upset at Snake beating Cloud, and outraged at Snake leading Link for 6 hours. Fortunately Link's day vote saved us....that ASV was a thing of beauty.

I found something that was posted on the day of the final. This is what tranny had to say about the match:

man. it's like Snake morphed into something else for the first few hours and then went back to being normal Snake.

how do you beat someone by 1500 votes in one hour and then lose the day vote to them outright? joke character indeed.

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 7/19/2009 6:22:33 PM | message detail
Nobody complains about Snake rallying to beat Cloud

Whoa whoa whoa, I totally complained about this! That crap cost me at least 200 bucks!
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 7/19/2009 6:26:57 PM | message detail
Sweet, the Stats topic whinefest is gearing up again!

We need LMS to intervene with more off-topic gaming lists.
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
Big Bob | Posted 7/19/2009 6:27:54 PM | message detail
Hypothesis:

Due to being more recently and -somewhat- favorably received, Sonic Adventure 2: Battle would beat any of the old Genesis games.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/19/2009 7:06:35 PM | message detail
I would enjoy a Sonic-poll to see 3D-Sonic against 2D-Sonic, just for comparison's sake...but I wouldn't take SA2:B over Sonic 1/2/3/&K in a match, not for a second. The moment that happens is the moment Sonic is lucky to be one-and-done each year, and you'll never see Tails or Knuckles again.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=767
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1128
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49774975
red sox 777 | Posted 7/19/2009 7:13:49 PM | message detail
Not a chance. Somewhat favorably received isn't good enough to beat a game that actually, well, has fans.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/19/2009 7:16:00 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1128

That's a horrible poll to determine the strength of Sonic Adventure 2: Battle. Not when you have a Metroid Prime holding everyone else under 10%. And with the way Metroid Prime bombed this contest, SA2:B certainly won't be beating any of the Genesis Sonic games.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2009 7:31:24 PM | message detail
I want to see SA2B just to see what a 3-D Sonic game can do, but I wouldn't take it over the major 2-D Sonic titles.
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 7/19/2009 7:35:36 PM | message detail
I'd rather see Sonic 2006.

Now THAT would be hilarious.
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Brawl did well for me, but not enough to net me the Guru win over Krahenprophet, so kudos to him.
HaRRicH | Posted 7/19/2009 7:36:05 PM | message detail
That's a horrible poll to determine the strength of Sonic Adventure 2: Battle. Not when you have a Metroid Prime holding everyone else under 10%. And with the way Metroid Prime bombed this contest, SA2:B certainly won't be beating any of the Genesis Sonic games.

Determining it precisely, I agree...but with MP destroying the poll and Animal Crossing tripling SA2:B despite MP and SMS in the poll, well, it says everything that needs to be said. There's the chance it was treated like a port, and we've seen lots of ports do poorly...but it sucked in the Dreamcast poll, too. SA2 losing to Shenmue 2 is inexcusable.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49774975
HaRRicH | Posted 7/19/2009 7:38:31 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=580

This could really stand to be redone, though the series isn't relevant anymore enough to deserve it much. Sad.
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Nominate DOC LOUIS (Punch-Out!!):
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49774975
charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2009 7:42:42 PM | message detail
SA2 losing to Shenmue 2 is inexcusable.

I'm assuming you've never played Shenmue...
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LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2009 8:00:18 PM | message detail
In terms of contest strength, it's inexcusable for a Sonic game to lose to Shenmue. Not an argument about quality!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 7/19/2009 8:01:27 PM | message detail
Don't you remember Ryo Hazuki nearly trippling someone? he is a contest force imho
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LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2009 8:08:01 PM | message detail
Ah, the wonders of Guybrush Threepwood.
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"The great GF...Krahenprophet."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2009 8:21:37 PM | message detail
In terms of contest strength, it's inexcusable for a Sonic game to lose to Shenmue. Not an argument about quality!

GotY polls tend to favour quality, which is why MGS4 and Fallout 3 did so well in Jan and died during the contest against Brawl.



Also 2k2 was the same year that Ryo broke 40% on Lara Croft who was comparable to Dante.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2009 8:25:33 PM | message detail
Lara wasn't that comparable to Dante. There's still a big gap between a doubling and 70%. Dante would have beaten her easily then.

I wouldn't say that the reason GOTY polls have different results is due to the fact that people actually vote for quality then. I would say they favor recency.
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charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2009 8:27:42 PM | message detail
29% vs. 33%, though that was probably Lara's best year and Dante's worst year.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2009 8:33:13 PM | message detail
Eh, Dante's still projected to win with 57.5%, so it wouldn't be too close.
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charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2009 9:13:14 PM | message detail
Is Soda an American thing?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 7/19/2009 9:13:59 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #438
Is Soda an American thing?


no its a common sense thing
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LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2009 9:14:16 PM | message detail
Depends on the area of the country.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2009 9:16:30 PM | message detail
And South America has the best pizza taste! Europeans don't eat hot dogs, and Asians are lazy with hot dog preparation.

Whoo!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 7/19/2009 9:18:23 PM | message detail
Probably has something to do with Asian voters living in less spacious areas, lacking backyards and the grills to fill them.

hey is it time for another contest already
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 7/19/2009 9:19:37 PM | message detail
Wait, I commented before looking at the poll.

Lazy Asians.
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charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2009 9:19:57 PM | message detail
Then why is the right option in second right now?

Also we Canadians sure like our pizza covered.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3549&region=CA
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 7/19/2009 9:21:00 PM | message detail
Although it might have to do with the constant hustle-and-bustle of metropolitan Asian lifestyle. The average Asian businessperson rarely has the time to cook, so he/she might often stop at the corner hot dog stand before a hectic day at the office. That's the opposite of laziness!
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/19/2009 9:21:54 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure Soda is an American thing. This same poll was hosted last year prior to the contest, so the Geolocation results cannot be viewed for that poll. Soda should bomb badly overnight.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 7/19/2009 9:22:21 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #445
Although it might have to do with the constant hustle-and-bustle of metropolitan Asian lifestyle. The average Asian businessperson rarely has the time to cook, so he/she might often stop at the corner hot dog stand before a hectic day at the office. That's the opposite of laziness!


i doubt those are the kinds of people who visit gamefaqs in asia
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 7/19/2009 9:22:31 PM | message detail
My relatives in Michigan call it "pop."
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 7/19/2009 9:23:34 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3067

heres last one Luster talked of
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charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2009 9:23:53 PM | message detail
I'm surprised that Soda Pop is bombing so badly though.
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Congratulations to Krahenprophet for winning the guru contest