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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 751

Calintares | Posted 6/18/2009 8:40:51 PM | message detail
What do you figure the ods are for Lightning to get in the next character contest (before FFXIII is released) and how strong do you think she would be?

would you take her to beat Kefka? how would she fare against Zack?
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to sig Krahenprophet and die.
Big Bob | Posted 6/18/2009 8:44:42 PM | message detail
I'd so take Mai to win that division.

And nobody even likes KoF!
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/18/2009 10:27:43 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/18/2009 10:42:24 PM | message detail
Today's poll is a rather fun one. As expected, 11:30 PM - 12:29 AM started in first place at the freeze, but lost first place to 12:30 AM - 1:29 AM on the second update of the poll. But once 12:30 started rolling around, the "11:30 PM - 12:29 AM" poll option was pulling in some really crappy updates, allowing the "1:30 AM - 2:29 AM" poll option to make a hard charge to take the lead over 11:30 PM - 12:29 AM. Now that it's past 1:30 AM, the "12:30 AM - 1:29 AM" poll option will be doing horrible, giving the "1:30 AM - 2:29 AM" poll option about one hour to overtake 12:30 AM - 1:29 AM. On the 1:30 AM update, the "1:30 AM - 2:29 AM" poll option got a 10 vote cut on on 12:30 AM - 1:29 AM (reducing its lead from 249 to 239) and a 35 vote cut at the 1:35 AM update (lead reduced from 239 to 204). Once it's past 2:30 AM, the "1:30 AM - 2:29 AM" poll will start doing horrible after that point in time. As for which poll options do best in the ASV, they would be the "Before 8:30 PM", "8:30 - 9:29 PM", and "9:30 - 10:29 PM" poll options.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/19/2009 4:05:50 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/19/2009 4:07:22 AM | message detail
Small mistake in my last post. Reposting what I deleted.


Wow, this topic has really died down big time. Anyways, today's poll is really getting epic here. So far up to this point, there have been multiple comeback attempts. After going through the updates I have tracked up to this point in time, there have been 7 different comeback attempts, but due to the explanations I gave to each comeback attempt so posting the list would end up being a pretty long post that I'm sure not everyone would want to read.

I will say that the most successful comeback attempt was 1:30 AM - 2:29 AM building up a maximum lead of 503 over 11:30 PM - 12:29 AM at 2:30 AM, then there was a stall-out up until the dead zone arrived at 4:00 AM. The Europe vote seemed to benefit 11:30 PM - 12:29 AM big time here, so that's when the stalling stopped. It took 11:30 PM - 12:29 AM almost 3 hours to cut the lead from 456 at 4:01 AM to taking the lead over 1:30 AM - 2:29 AM at 6:42 AM. Cutting over 500 votes in 3 hours is pretty impressive when you are dealing with a 10-way poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
Gaddswell | Posted 6/19/2009 4:12:32 AM | message detail
Whoo, Archer 1 seed.

Gotta get through either Locke or Epona though.
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Hail Krahenprophet, our new guru overlord!
creativename | Posted 6/19/2009 9:37:30 AM | message detail
I just noticed this, but why is last contest labeled "Character Battle 8" on creative's site?

Didn't even realize, thanks. I'll fix that at some point.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/19/2009 11:58:08 AM | message detail
I will say that the most successful comeback attempt was 1:30 AM - 2:29 AM building up a maximum lead of 503 over 11:30 PM - 12:29 AM at 2:30 AM, then there was a stall-out up until the dead zone arrived at 4:00 AM. The Europe vote seemed to benefit 11:30 PM - 12:29 AM big time here, so that's when the stalling stopped. It took 11:30 PM - 12:29 AM almost 3 hours to cut the lead from 456 at 4:01 AM to taking the lead over 1:30 AM - 2:29 AM at 6:42 AM. Cutting over 500 votes in 3 hours is pretty impressive when you are dealing with a 10-way poll.

Whoops, I was wrong. The biggest comeback attempt in today's poll was 3:30 AM - 4:29 AM obtaining a maximum lead of 1772 over 9:30 - 10:29 PM. This maximum lead was reached at 5:16 AM. 3:30 AM - 4:29 AM managed to blow an almost 1800 vote lead over the course of 8 hours, which it lost to lead to 9:30 - 10:29 PM at 1:18 PM. Blowing a 1800 vote lead isn't really a problem when you are dealing with a 4-way match, but this is a 10-way poll where each poll option has less votes to work with. For a 10-way poll, this is embarrassing to see.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
HaRRicH | Posted 6/19/2009 8:58:19 PM | message detail
11:30-12:30 - 65%
12:30-1:30 - 50%
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KrahenProfit: a one-Guru wrecking crew.
He savagely abused my bracket.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/19/2009 9:08:47 PM | message detail
Looks like Oceania/Australia is the only demographic whose primary bedtime was not 11:30-12:29 A.M.! They're early to bed people!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed."
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/19/2009 9:55:49 PM | message detail
Trend chart for the bedtime pol since it's too large for me to post it in this topic as plain textl:

http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/8913/bedtimepolltrends.png

11:30 PM - 12:29 AM won the board vote, but lost the lead to 12:30 AM - 1:29 AM right on the second update of the poll. Soon after, 1:30 AM - 2:29 AM would eventually overtake 11:30 PM - 12:29 AM just 30 minutes later. 12:30 AM - 1:29 AM did best in the Power Hour. 8:30 - 9:29 PM, 9:30 - 10:29 PM, and 10:30 - 11:29 PM all did horrible with the board vote, Power Hour, and the night vote. The night vote was pretty deadlocked between 11:30 PM - 12:29 AM, 12:30 AM - 1:29 AM, and 1:30 AM - 2:29 AM, with 12:30 AM - 1:29 AM barely winning during this time period. 2:30 AM - 3:29 AM, 3:30 AM - 4:29 AM, and 4:30AM or later did their best work during the night vote.

The morning vote features the biggest trend shifts of this poll. 10:30 - 11:29 PM jumped about 11% from the night vote to the morning vote. 11:30 PM - 12:29 AM did about a 7% jump between the night vote and the morning vote. 10:30 - 11:29 PM did drop off about 3% going into the late morning vote and dropped about another 1% going into the ASV and the second night vote. However, 11:30 PM - 12:29 AM actually went up slightly in the late morning vote, and once it dropped off with the ASV, it stayed around the same even in the second night vote. Before 8:30 PM, 8:30 - 9:29 PM, 9:30 - 10:29 PM all did their best in the morning vote. Makes sense, since those people would be waking up early enough to vote in that time period.

2:30 AM - 3:29 AM, 3:30 AM - 4:29 AM, and 4:30AM or later all managed to recover with the second night vote, but it wasn't as good as their first night vote. Those same poll options also did horrible during the morning vote, but 4:30AM or later didn't do all that bad for that time period since it was still running strong off the night vote. 4:30AM or later actually did worse in the late morning vote.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
Ngamer64 | Posted 6/21/2009 12:58:51 AM | message detail
LL's poll yesterday covered the subject of our 2010 Spring Contest, so thought I'd share the results:

Of the Two "Best Consoles Ever," which is better?
SNES, because I'm nostalgic 11.63% 253
SNES, because it's just plain better 26.11% 568
PS2 because nostalgia is for **** 3.59% 78
PS2 because it's just plain better 31.45% 684
Neither of these consoles are the best and you should feel bad for making this poll 27.22% 592
TOTAL VOTES 2175

So in other words

SNES - 37.74%
PS2 - 35.04%
PSX/N64/360/NES/etc - 27.22%

Pretty close! LL's demographic skews older than GameFAQs in general and they're also bigger into pre-Wii Nintendo from what I've seen, so I would imagine the PS2 comes closer if we asked this site-wide.

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KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail!
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/21/2009 5:45:24 PM | message detail
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/21/2009 7:56:22 PM | message detail
Nomination Rally Tournament has started, so if you're so inclined, feel free to vote and push for new blood and some old blood, too!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed."
HaRRicH | Posted 6/22/2009 8:35:07 AM | message detail
that means doc guys


More seriously, on the subject of Punch-Out!!...

1) What do we think of Little Mac now?
2) Are there any other Wii-games coming out this year that may beat PO in the GotY's? I don't know Nintendo's '09 line-up right now.
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KrahenProfit: a one-Guru wrecking crew.
He savagely abused my bracket.
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/22/2009 8:38:30 AM | message detail
Mac is still fodder, just not embarrassingly bad fodder.

Wii GotY...oh boy. Punch-Out might win. I love the game and that's just sad.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/22/2009 8:39:09 AM | message detail
what about

THA CONDUIT
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
Smurf FAQs | Posted 6/22/2009 8:42:51 AM | message detail
Jesus christ Kleenex will you lay off the conduit already.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/22/2009 8:43:54 AM | message detail
never
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
Smurf FAQs | Posted 6/22/2009 8:46:53 AM | message detail

From: Calintares | #351
What do you figure the ods are for Lightning to get in the next character contest (before FFXIII is released) and how strong do you think she would be?


I don't know about the next contest but once released I could see Lightning posing a serious threat to the Noble 9. From the demo vids I've seen her character seems to tick all the boxes for what Gamefaqs likes in a character.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/22/2009 8:47:44 AM | message detail
Cloud with boobs to take down Link
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/22/2009 8:57:42 AM | message detail
Depends on FFXIII. If it tanks, Lightning's gonna be fodder. If it's the smash hit that will bring Square back to the forefront like everyone's hyping it to be, I could see her being equal to the rest of the near elites (which, amusingly, are ALL FF characters, I think).
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/22/2009 9:03:51 AM | message detail
I really don't think FFXIII will tank. If that game bombs, it would be the biggest disappointment Square has ever put out. That game has no reason to fail.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed."
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/22/2009 9:06:56 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #374
I really don't think FFXIII will tank. If that game bombs, it would be the biggest disappointment Square has ever put out. That game has no reason to fail.


Then again, Square has been REALLY hit-or-miss since Spirits Within tanked in the cinemas. The game has to truly be the new FF7 to give Lightning good strength, because all the hype means it's got some massive expectations to live up to. Merely being good won't be enough, it has to cure at least two types of cancers, more or less, or the fanbase will revile it.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/22/2009 9:18:53 AM | message detail
FFXIII will probably fail same way FFXII did. A great game, but people expecting WAAAAAAAAAAAAY too much.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/22/2009 9:20:21 AM | message detail
Nah, FFXIII has a lot of things going for it that FFXII didn't.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed."
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/22/2009 9:21:53 AM | message detail
Yeah, FFXIII DOES have a better shot, but that doesn't mean it's a guaranteed classic. I'd say it has a 33% chance of being a classic, to XII's 10% or so.
XxSoulxX | Posted 6/22/2009 3:35:33 PM | message detail
I don't know about the next contest but once released I could see Lightning posing a serious threat to the Noble 9

Lol, there is not a shot in absolute hell that a new character will be knocking on the Noble Nine's door. Maybe if she appears in three or four more games she'd be in the elite, but she will have nothing on anyone in the NN for a long time coming.
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"Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename
ZFS | Posted 6/22/2009 4:44:38 PM | message detail
FFXIII is going to be huge, no doubts about that. It'll be more along the lines of a FFX than it will be FFXII. It has much more appeal all around, both its characters and its style. I'd imagine Lightning would be stronger than any of the FFX cast, too, save for Auron. Anything higher than that depends on how much GameFAQs takes to the game.

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There ain't no gettin' offa this train we're on
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/22/2009 4:46:42 PM | message detail
Yeah, but it doesn't just have to be good, it has to receive massive acclaim. I'm not sure how much Square fans differ from Nintendo's, but TP and Brawl were hyped to high heaven, just like FFXIII is being hyped now, and they were mostly seen as letdowns when they didn't end up being all that and a bag of chips (they were still amazing, though). Hype backlash could easily kill Lightning's potential for a year or two after release.
ZFS | Posted 6/22/2009 4:55:30 PM | message detail
FFXIII has a lot of hype behind it, but it's not to the same degree as Brawl and TP. No one's calling it the best game ever and building up expectations that can't be met. People will definitely take to the game, I've played the demo and it's great. Long overdue return to the Final Fantasy everyone loves.

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There ain't no gettin' offa this train we're on
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/22/2009 5:01:18 PM | message detail
Okay, since I've yet to upgrade to the latest gen (being a PC mark and all), where would you put Lightning's ceiling and floor, assuming the game ends up curing cancer in the first case and is the new Cheetahmen in the second one? I feel like your expectations would be a lot more accurrate than mine. ;)
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/22/2009 5:07:22 PM | message detail
The thing that could help FFXIII a lot is the multiplatform release. Of course, it depends on how well it sells on the 360, but it's going to sell on the PS3 like hotcakes, I'd imagine.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed."
ZFS | Posted 6/22/2009 5:08:52 PM | message detail
Tough to say.

Lightning is probably the most appealing main character since Cloud, which makes sense given that she's made to be a female verison of him! If FFXIII gets the massive critical and fan acclaim, and sells like it should, she could be probably be up there with the near-elites. She won't be beating any of the Noble Nine, unless Sonic and Mega Man keep sucking to the point where they're not really apart of the group anymore, but no reason to think she couldn't be above the likes of Sora if FFXIII becomes a big hit.

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There ain't no gettin' offa this train we're on
ZFS | Posted 6/22/2009 5:11:01 PM | message detail
Yeah, it being multiplatform means that everyone on GameFAQs will have a chance to play it. Don't have to worry about it being limited by the userbase like MGS4.

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There ain't no gettin' offa this train we're on
SonicRaptor | Posted 6/22/2009 5:40:13 PM | message detail
FF13 really does have to be the biggest FF title since 7 in terms of acclaim and sales for Lightning to become a Square upper midcarder. She won't threaten the Noble Nine like Vincent constantly does unless FF13 develops a passionate fanbase during the offseasons.
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KrahenProphet is the most recent destroyer of me in the Guru Contest.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/22/2009 5:45:53 PM | message detail
Yeah, to threaten the NN, you need three things:

A) Hardcore Fanbase. If you don't have rabid supporters, forget about this. Even in a SFF match with the biggest guy from your company (Link or Cloud), if you fall below a certain threshold, you're just a high midcarder.

B) Appealing Design, tons of it. This is the reason Squall is so strong despite being antivoted, and why Vincent is so strong in spite of being a secret character.

C) Recent good releases under your belt, preferably absolutely amazing ones.

Lightning will have recency going for her, and B looks pretty safe. She needs FFXIII to be brilliant to gain A and complete C, though. Otherwise, I'd put her at Tidus' level. If FFXIII flops, meanwhile, she could be as weak as Balthier.
XxSoulxX | Posted 6/22/2009 5:46:57 PM | message detail
Lightning's floor is Balthier if it bombs. Her ceiling would be near Ryu/Dante I believe. All the characters that are in the elite have years of nostalgia or many games featuring them (or both), so there's no way she'd be able to get close to them so early. Like I said earlier, give her a few years to get a stable fanbase and she could be as strong or stronger then Sora.
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"Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename
ZFS | Posted 6/22/2009 5:52:24 PM | message detail
Given that Squall is lucky to beat Vincent, I would say Lightning doesn't have much chance there. But she's not going to fall into the Balthier and Tidus zone -- FFXIII wouldn't even need to be a massive hit for her to avoid that group, considering her design and personality. One of the big things she has going for her is that she's the complete opposite of Zidane/Tidus/Vaan trio we've gotten the past few FFs, and more along the lines of Cloud and Squall.

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There ain't no gettin' offa this train we're on
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/22/2009 5:54:41 PM | message detail
plus she is hot
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/22/2009 5:57:07 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #391
plus she is hot


Admittedly, after Rydia's fluke, TJF is a proven force which could propel her upwards.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/22/2009 6:24:35 PM | message detail
Tidus and Balthier aren't in the same tier!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed."
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/22/2009 6:28:36 PM | message detail
Yeah, that's for sure. Tidus has recovered a lot since 2004. He was actually *gasp* DECENT in 2008!
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/22/2009 6:37:07 PM | message detail
Tidus probably hasn't increased much at all since 2004. But he's not going to be losing to Ada Wong any time soon.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/22/2009 6:41:37 PM | message detail
Tidus is a solid midcarder. Balthier is fodder line
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redrocket | Posted 6/22/2009 6:56:42 PM | message detail
Quick semi-off topic question: If you had to compare FF XIII's gameplay to one other game, what would you say it is closest too?

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/22/2009 6:57:36 PM | message detail
ffx
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Brawl Friend Code: 1977-7795-0487
ZFS | Posted 6/22/2009 7:11:37 PM | message detail
Yeah, FFX is about right. It's command-based, fast, and stylish.

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There ain't no gettin' offa this train we're on
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/22/2009 7:12:08 PM | message detail
It's more ATB-ish though, isn't it?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed."