GameFAQs Contests

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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 749

UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/8/2009 12:19:17 AM | message detail
Probably the last stats topic before the offseason dead zone.

*sigh* :'(



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
hochiminhX | Posted 6/8/2009 12:19:51 AM | message detail
What a terible contest
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I will bury you.
Gaddswell | Posted 6/8/2009 12:21:46 AM | message detail
Wonder which character battle match topic 777 falls on.
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
paulg235 | Posted 6/8/2009 12:23:45 AM | message detail
Blah blah blah worst contest ever blah
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The Gamer In Me
I've lost the guru. How? I don't know (lol).
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/8/2009 12:25:06 AM | message detail
Dang, I wanted this one!
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
HaRRicH | Posted 6/8/2009 7:07:35 AM | message detail
Friendly favor: no more dueling topics, please...preferably ever. That was just silly, as was the way the beginning of each topic was handled (and this was brought on by both of you guys, not just one or the other). Let's have some dignity and not resort to that, especially in a championship match with a big board upset going on. It's the rematch we've waited five years for...can we not handle ourselves better than this? If not, each of you should lay off from making the next few topics. If so, I'm looking forward to some sanity.

Seriously.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
wg64Z | Posted 6/8/2009 7:08:39 AM | message detail
Yeah this contest blew monkey balls.
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/8/2009 7:48:35 AM | message detail
This contest was awesome. So much hilarity. And Brawl and RBY strength. <3

And unless both Ulti and MWC apologize to each other in this topic, I'm going to make the next five CSaD topics. But hey, I'll sell the rights to make CSaD 750 for $10!

Any buyers?
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Wylvane's current main account.
HaRRicH | Posted 6/8/2009 8:26:37 AM | message detail
So hey, I've tried to roughly categorize games by the systems they were best known for/strongest on/sold most for since I didn't know all the games that went multi-platform, then rank those games by strength. Does anybody care to help organize these? I've not double-checked with any stats during this, and I'd like to have a separate mutli-platform section too for comparison's sake (though I don't think online releases/ports count like the Virtual Console).



Atari:
Pong

NES:
SMB3
SMB1
LoZ
FF
Metroid
MM2
MM3
DH
Punch-Out!!
Contra
Battletoads
Ninja Gaiden
CV3
DW3
RCR
Tecmo Super Bowl
Crystalis

SNES:
LoZ:LttP
CT
SMW
FF3/6
SMRPG
FF2/4
SM
SMK
MMX
SMW2:YI
DKC
SoM
KSS
DKC2
EB
PS4
Lufia 2

Genesis:
Sonic 1
Sonic 2
Sonic 3
Shining Force 2
SoR2
Gunstar Heroes

Arcade:
SF2
MK2
Pac-Man
DK
Space Invaders
Galaga

Dreamcast:
Soul Calibur

PS:
FF7
MGS
FFX
FF8
FF9
FFT
C:SotN
RE2
RE
Xenogears
CC
Suikoden

N64:
LoZ:OoT
SM64
GE
LoZ:MM
MK64
SF64
PM
PD
BK

PS2:
FFX
MGS3
KH
KH2
MGS2
GoW
FF12
GTA:SA
GTA:VC
GTA3
SotC
Okami
P4
Disgaea
SH2

Gamecube:
SSBM
RE4
LoZ:WW
ToS
MP

Xbox:
Halo
SW:KotOR
Halo 2
Morrowind

360:
FO3
CoD4
BioShock
Halo 3
L4D
GTA4
ME
Gears of War

Wii:
SSBB
LoZ:TP
SMG

PS3:
MGS4
LBP
SF4

PC:
HL2
Oblivion
D2
WoW
Portal
Starcraft
HL1
Doom
Oregon Trail
Team Fortress 2
Civilization
Deus Ex
SoMI
SimCity
PoP

Handheld:
R/B/Y
G/S
LoZ:LA
Tetris
D/P
PW:AA
FE
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BT > Harrich
lol me
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/8/2009 8:42:19 AM | message detail
Pretty good rankings.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/8/2009 9:06:29 AM | message detail
From the previous topic:

RPGGamer0 | Posted 6/8/2009 6:11:24 AM | message detail
We can do the E.T./Shaq-Fu/Superman 64/Big Rigs match the next day.

No longer care about OoT vs. FFVII, but this^ might be a good match.


A match between 4 joke games would be interesting. But as this board seems a little divided on what the bonus match should be, we might not get one. There's a suggestion for OoT/FFVII, that joke game match mentioned above, and Vlado's FFVII/Cloud/Link/OoT idea. Vlado's idea is unfortunately getting a lot of anti-signs, probably due to some users simply not liking him and opposes all of his suggestions even if it's an idea that this board would support had a more respected user on this board made a petition for.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/8/2009 9:08:01 AM | message detail
Vlado's is getting anti-signs because it's not a good idea.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 9:12:57 AM | message detail
I have no clue how I would vote in that.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
Smurf Alt | Posted 6/8/2009 9:16:02 AM | message detail
Fallout 3, Call of Duty 4, Bioshock and Left 4 Dead are primarily PC titles.
GTA 4 was devloped for PS3 primarily.

You have them all listed as 360.
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 9:20:16 AM | message detail
Votals this morning are very high, whereas the DSV usually gets lower votals relative to the rest of the match. Summer trends are looking good for today, we'll see decisively in 3 or 4 hours.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/8/2009 9:20:25 AM | message detail
Vlado's is getting anti-signs because it's not a good idea.

I bet if someone like Ulti made the suggestion instead, it would get a lot of signs since he is a more respected user at this board.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Flame_Hazard | Posted 6/8/2009 9:20:52 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/8/2009 9:22:03 AM | message detail
Votals this morning are very high, whereas the DSV usually gets lower votals relative to the rest of the match. Summer trends are looking good for today, we'll see decisively in 3 or 4 hours.

Better wait until the SNV arrives, then we'll look at the votals for the DSV and ASV.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/8/2009 9:24:08 AM | message detail
Fallout 3, Call of Duty 4, Bioshock and Left 4 Dead are primarily PC titles.
GTA 4 was devloped for PS3 primarily.

You have them all listed as 360.


To solve that issue, HaRRicH should make up a "Multi-Platform" category and list them under there instead.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Yesmar | Posted 6/8/2009 9:30:34 AM | message detail
People are overrating Zelda dominance.

Final Fantasy definitely beats the Zelda series in a rematch, and FFVII probably is stronger than OoT in 1vs.1, but FFX is holding it back.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/8/2009 9:31:18 AM | message detail
Haha, no.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
xp1337 | Posted 6/8/2009 9:31:31 AM | message detail
So, uh, I was gone for about 2 hours. When I left Zelda was at like a lead of 800-900 and being cut and/or stalled. Now it's at... lead of 1700? What happened? I could see it rising, but that much that fast?
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
locutus442 | Posted 6/8/2009 9:33:20 AM | message detail
for the love of god i hope that final fantasy 7 does not win. that game is so overrated that it shouldn't have even been nominated (ff7 fanboys ftl).
Silver Shadow X | Posted 6/8/2009 9:34:17 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy definitely beats the Zelda series in a rematch, and FFVII probably is stronger than OoT in 1vs.1, but FFX is holding it back.

Considering that LttP is holding back OoT, and beating FFX itself, wouldn't a 1v1 match still mean OoT wins? Unless you think LttP fans favor FF7 over OoT or something..
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Why give up, why give in? It's not enough, it never is. So I will go on until the end. - Breaking Benjamin
Yesmar | Posted 6/8/2009 9:41:50 AM | message detail
Considering that LttP is holding back OoT, and beating FFX itself, wouldn't a 1v1 match still mean OoT wins? Unless you think LttP fans favor FF7 over OoT or something..

No, just that FFX fans favor FFVII in a greater degree than LttP fans favor OoT. At least enough to make up the difference.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
RPGuy96 | Posted 6/8/2009 9:43:36 AM | message detail
Hahaha.

Pray tell, do you still think FFIV gets 48% on Mario World in a fair match as well?
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/8/2009 9:45:38 AM | message detail
No, just that FFX fans favor FFVII in a greater degree than LttP fans favor OoT. At least enough to make up the difference.

Do you realize what the difference is going to be when this match is over?

Thousands. OoT beats FF7 one-on-one. This isn't that hard to understand.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
xp1337 | Posted 6/8/2009 9:50:37 AM | message detail
So, OoT is pretty much guaranteed to end this match with a higher % than it did in Round 3 against RBY/FF8/MGS.

...How is this even...

(SFF and LFF, I know, but seriously just step back and compare the packs... RBY/FF8/MGS v FF7/FFX/LttP)
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
Silver Shadow X | Posted 6/8/2009 9:53:49 AM | message detail
No, just that FFX fans favor FFVII in a greater degree than LttP fans favor OoT. At least enough to make up the difference.

Sounds odd to me. Seems to me that both games are being about equally SFF'ed, but alright.
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Why give up, why give in? It's not enough, it never is. So I will go on until the end. - Breaking Benjamin
Yesmar | Posted 6/8/2009 9:53:58 AM | message detail
Hahaha.

Pray tell, do you still think FFIV gets 48% on Mario World in a fair match as well?


Is this directed towards me? Cause I don't remember ever saying anything like that.

Do you realize what the difference is going to be when this match is over?

Thousands. OoT beats FF7 one-on-one. This isn't that hard to understand.


All it needs is for the LttP split to go 8-4 in favor of Ocarina of Time, while the FFX split goes 9-2 in favor of FFVII. Hardly some flukish shift.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/8/2009 9:54:40 AM | message detail

From: RPGuy96 | #026
Hahaha.

Pray tell, do you still think FFIV gets 48% on Mario World in a fair match as well?


Ah, FFIV. For me, it was like the kid who was always fidgeting in his seat. You'd try your best to defend him, but inside, you knew damn well something was wrong.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 9:54:47 AM | message detail
This match is FFVII vs. OOT, so LTTP and FFX were turned into non-factors.

I don't know. FFVII always seems to do badly in finals. Never had a final where it didn't do badly yet, other than Cloud/Sephiroth because they managed to eliminate all their competition before the final.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2009 9:57:28 AM | message detail
probably due to some users simply not liking him and opposes all of his suggestions even if it's an idea that this board would support had a more respected user on this board made a petition for.

I would anti-sign that petition even if I made it. Characters vs. games is an awful idea.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed."
Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/8/2009 9:59:32 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy definitely beats the Zelda series in a rematch

How on earth do you come to this conclusion? Zelda would still beat FF.
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Playing: Star Ocean: TLH | Ninja Gaiden Black | Ar tonelico II
Favourite game ever - Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 10:04:10 AM | message detail
OOT/LTTP are getting a bit over 51% here; not high enough to clearly call FF/Zelda one way or the other. I'd probably go with Zelda though, and I'd vote for it if it weren't for all this Nintendo domination.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2009 10:05:13 AM | message detail
It's a safe bet to go with Nintendo if it's ever in doubt. Seriously. You'll be right 90% of the time.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed."
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 10:12:11 AM | message detail
And yeah, if we're running on summer trends and not schoolday trends, FFVII can still bring this back over 49%. In that case, it winning a 1v1 seems like a possbility, though pretty unlikely.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
HaRRicH | Posted 6/8/2009 10:20:55 AM | message detail
I'm not cool with FF7/Cloud/Link/LoZ:OoT. What does it even mean, really?

I'll adjust for multi-platform later, I just don't know off-hand what all is multi-platform and if we want to count games that got ports way later like SM64 or MGS.


Final Fantasy definitely beats the Zelda series in a rematch, and FFVII probably is stronger than OoT in 1vs.1, but FFX is holding it back.

1) Biggest games: LoZ:OoT > FF7
2) Second-biggest games: LoZ:LttP > FFX
3) Top two games from each series against each other: LoZ:OoT + LoZ:LttP > FF7 + FFX
4) Most recent games: LoZ:TP >> FF12
5) Last time LoZ faced FF in a series match: LoZ > FF
6) Companies: Nintendo > Square
7) Characters: Link > Cloud (by increasingly larger margins each year)

Sorry, can't see your argument for the facts in the way. LoZ > FF.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
hochiminhX | Posted 6/8/2009 10:29:22 AM | message detail
Link wins with probably 60% against Cloud now at this point.

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I will bury you.
Kotetsu534 | Posted 6/8/2009 10:36:48 AM | message detail
I think it is pretty clear that OoT is the most popular game on GameFAQs after all. I'm more interested in how long FFVII and OoT can remain ahead of the pack. Five years? Ten years?

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http://www.philosophynow.org/issue58/58kirby.htm
Currently playing: Persona 3 FES
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 10:37:20 AM | message detail
1) Biggest games: LoZ:OoT > FF7
2) Second-biggest games: LoZ:LttP > FFX
3) Top two games from each series against each other: LoZ:OoT + LoZ:LttP > FF7 + FFX
4) Most recent games: LoZ:TP >> FF12
5) Last time LoZ faced FF in a series match: LoZ > FF
6) Companies: Nintendo > Square
7) Characters: Link > Cloud (by increasingly larger margins each year)


As much as I love Link, that is really depressing when you see it all spelled out like that. Since 2006 FFVII has been the one hope of people who don't want Nintendo to win every single contest.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/8/2009 10:39:00 AM | message detail
http://electexiles.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/darth-vader1.jpg

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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
hochiminhX | Posted 6/8/2009 10:39:15 AM | message detail
Red Sox - It is indeed depressing. FFVII was the last hope and now it's basically been reduced to ZeldaFodder. Character contest next year? Zelda wins. Series contest? Zelda wins. Game contest? Zelda wins. Hell, Ganondorf would probably beat Sephiroth at this point.

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I will bury you.
transience | Posted 6/8/2009 10:39:20 AM | message detail
I don't know why, but contests feel kinda pointless after this result. it's not offensive or anything like that, it just feels sort of inevitable.

I'll still follow them of course but there's the overlying question of "why?"
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xyzzy
OCARINA OF TIME I HATE YOU but Krakenprophet knows what's up
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/8/2009 10:39:36 AM | message detail
http://s3.amazonaws.com/twitter_production/profile_images/109199895/10227315A_Jar-Jar-Binks-Posters_bigger.jpg
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
slyfalcon | Posted 6/8/2009 10:49:39 AM | message detail
As far as FF vs Zelda, cloud vs zelda isn't as cloud was only the main in one game, two if you include the sholcking crisis core, whereas zelda has been the main in several. In comparison, if you divide zelda's popularity by the amount oif games he's featured in with cloud and his games then cloud wins by a ridiculous amount but once again it isn't a fair match.

As for this contest, it is far from the definitive result as it only takes into account the opinion of the USA. If you compare the results from america to the overall result they are almost identical because they make up tyhe majority of the result however the EU and Asia regions have very few votes but what the games they vote for are very different. If each region had an equal vote then Final fantasy would win it all, asia's love for ff is unbelievable and europe seem to have a little bit of a hate of nintendo which would majorly damage it's overall 'greatness'.

I guess what i'm getting at is that the result is bias and the real winner is final fantasy 7 by a long way.
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PSN: JiminiCricket
voltch | Posted 6/8/2009 10:51:17 AM | message detail
At this rate i don't want Zelda wii to come out if our finals are gonna be link vs zelda vs ganondorf vs cloud and link still wins.
The margins are getting bigger and bigger with each confrontation.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
Master Moltar | Posted 6/8/2009 10:52:46 AM | message detail
Hell, Ganondorf would probably beat Sephiroth at this point.

the more people say this, the more I want to see a second villains contest!

I mean Samus and Snake over Seph 1v1 would be great, but Ganondorf > Seph? best result ever
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Moltar Status: storm of loyalty
Match 63 - Bracket: FF7 > OoT - Vote: OoT (503/640)
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 6/8/2009 10:52:58 AM | message detail
At this point I'm just convinced FFVII crashes in finals in this format. I don't care what the matchup is, I'm not taking Cloud to take 2nd in the finals next contest.
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http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/3230/takerface.gif
voltch | Posted 6/8/2009 10:55:42 AM | message detail
Next contest Snake for 2nd for sure.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455