GameFAQs Contests

Am I the only one who is expecting a Mario boost for the next contest?

I'd need to find a reason before I expect a boost. These results don't need to translate over to characters; it's quite easy to make sense of them without ever using the word "boost."

Older Mario games kill other older 2D games.
Chrono Trigger fell and Mario 64 was amazingly undervalued by OoT.
Galaxy still imploded like an old Las Vegas hotel.

None of this suggests a Mario boost, really, especially when hardcore gamers were pissed at Nintendo a few short months ago and 2009 has been a very quiet gaming year in general.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

From: Meeks54 | #350
in 2006 he did. Sonic has since fallen completely off the map.

It's almost like something happened like a poll format change happened after 2006 that y'know maybe, possibly might not suit the less hardcore Sonic base. Just a thought, but I'm sure it's just as plausible that his popularity halved over night for no reason whatsoever.
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.

I think a bad-ass direction we could go for contest-wise (and have thought so for years) is to do a gauntlet-type deal. Assuming we have to keep the four-way format, just do this: order the characters by nominations, loosely adjust them by strength, and find interesting pairings of characters nearby each other. From there, start off the contest with a four-way between the characters lowest on that list. At the end of each day, remove the bottom two and add the next two. Continue climbing the list like this until you reach the championship where Cloud and Link will be added, and crown the winner at the end of that day.

That would ensure pretty close matches through-out the entire contest, still let us see the elites in the matches we want while not wasting multiple days on blow-outs, and constantly give a chance to near-elites against the lowest of the Noble Nine. The downside is that we're dealing with heavy fodder the first few days, but they can make a match out of it and it only gets better from there. Also, since the list would only loosely be organized by strength, our nominations would mean more for gauntlet-placement and we would see variations between constantly new characters and characters on a streak. That could be done while preventing very long streaks that might be boring pretty easily.


Just saying...it wouldn't be that hard to have a LOT of pretty close matches, it would let us follow characters for longer than once a week-month, and we would care about nominations more. That would keep us watching awhile longer.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

Unless FF7 wins Europe, and takes a moderate lead.

FFVII is going to win in EVERY region except North America. Europe and especially UK bums FF to death. NA is the only region where Zelda is far more popular than Final Fantasy. Sales show this.
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Playing: Star Ocean: TLH | Ninja Gaiden Black | Ar tonelico II
Favourite game ever - Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time

The upper semifinal suggests CT beats SMB3 worse than in 2004, and Crono beat Mario with 53% that year. He also did better against Mario the character than CT did against Mario's strongest game, so CT losing to Mario 64 and Crono beating Mario wouldn't be unprecendented. I don't expect anyone else here to take this upset, certainly not unless FFVII wins. That really shouldn't matter all that much (a 49.5% loss is about the same as a 50.05% win), but I get the feeling it will affect people's predictions for the next contest a huge amount.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Sonic's populairty fell because his games were complete and utter ****.
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Playing: Star Ocean: TLH | Ninja Gaiden Black | Ar tonelico II
Favourite game ever - Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time

Why is it that NA always prefers the worst game available? Kingdom Hearts, Halo, Metroid, Mega Man, Castlevania. Pretty much every series I don't like does as it should in other regions and pummels the crap out of everything in NA. -_-

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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.

It's almost like something happened like a poll format change happened after 2006 that y'know maybe, possibly might not suit the less hardcore Sonic base. Just a thought, but I'm sure it's just as plausible that his popularity halved over night for no reason whatsoever.

While that may have been the cause, 4 ways are here to stay for a while. Sucking at 4 way and just plain sucking are the same thing.

Sonic's populairty fell because his games were complete and utter ****.,

That's nothing new, though. Why would it suddenly cause Sonic to drop off in power?
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...

From: Lord_Yggdrassil | #356
Sonic's populairty fell because his games were complete and utter ****.

That's interesting since 2006 was actually after Shadow the Hedgehog, Sonic Heroes and STH2006 (at least demos and reviews of it) and all it caused was Sonic's strongest year on record. He's never done well in 4-way polls, check any PotD involving Sonic or a Sonic game, his profile could have actually boosted since 2006 with Brawl, Unleashed etc. We just don't know in 4-way. The results are best discarded for direct comparisons, you just can't compare 1v1 and 4-way results like that.
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.

Meeks, if you apologize for trolling in the topic all the time (on purpose or not is irrelevant), I'll do the same for ****ting on you and overriding your topics. The first was a legit OCD thing (A missing dash really does drive me nuts), the second I just took as you trying to annoy everyone and I made another topic after people asked me to.

So, my bad for being an ass. You're likely here to stay, and you're not one of the prime evils or anything. Truce?

Oh and I'd like to add a rule to the first post -- No making a new stat topic until the old one is at 450 or more posts. It'll end this dueling crap for good. Anyone have a problem with this?
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Don't add a freakin rule.

Just stop doing it.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

you just can't compare 1v1 and 4-way results like that.

Most characters don't act to differently in 1v1 and 4way battles. I'm not sure if there are any others besides Sonic. Pikachu is sometimes thought to be one but we don't have any good 1v1 data on him. Master Chief used to be one but he turned out to just be powered up on Game Fuel.
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...

From: UltimaterializerX | #360
Meeks, if you apologize for trolling in the topic all the time (on purpose or not is irrelevant), I'll do the same for ****ting on you and overriding your topics. The first was a legit OCD thing (A missing dash really does drive me nuts), the second I just took as you trying to annoy everyone and I made another topic after people asked me to.

So, my bad for being an ass. You're likely here to stay, and you're not one of the prime evils or anything. Truce?

Oh and I'd like to add a rule to the first post -- No making a new stat topic until the old one is at 450 or more posts. It'll end this dueling crap for good. Anyone have a problem with this?

Fair enough.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton

just wondering going by pure votals,how does FFVI compare with the rest of it's cast?
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455

OOT by the hour:

1:00 | 55.70%
2:00 | 53.38%
3:00 | 49.25%
4:00 | 50.43%

Not a good hour for FFVII, but that's okay because it had a great hour last hour.

Projections:

Based on Link/Cloud 2008, OOT wins with 50.86%.
Based on Link/Cloud 2006, OOT wins with 51.28%.
Based on FF/Zelda, OOT wins with 51.26%.
Based on Crono/Vincent 2007, FFVII wins with 52.86%.

This is it. 4 AM. The edge of the cliff. Behind us lie the anti-FFVII Power Hours. Before us lies utter darkness. Yet somewhere in that darkness, there is the light. Time to leap off this cliff and trust to finding that light, Cloud.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Based on Crono/Vincent 2007, FFVII wins with 52.86%.

Yesssss. FFVII to win confirmed
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

The lead's been cut to 1500, I smell a comeback!

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Xbox GT/PSN name: TatteredUniform - SSBB FC: 1891-0831-5747 (TEETS)
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/TatteredUniform.png

dude red sox you are being totally ridiculous
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Pittsburgh Penguins 2009 Eastern Conference Champions!!!
2 down, 2 to go

Just like with Zelda 1 and Mario 64, right?
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

FFVII has a very nice 4 hours ahead of it. Then we'll see what happens with the morning.

15 minute updates:

00:15 | Up 378
00:30 | Up 299
00:45 | Up 238
01:00 | Up 208
01:15 | Up 119
01:30 | Up 70
01:45 | Up 162
02:00 | Up 78
02:15 | Down 33
02:30 | Up 7
02:45 | Down 18
03:00 | Down 26
03:15 | Up 64
03:30 | Up 4
03:45 | Down 4
04:00 | Down 33
04:15 | Down 69
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

No because those games actually had a time of the day where they'd make a comeback, unlike FF7 which is only for the next ~4 hours. There's no guarantee it can even eliminate the lead in that time, and unless FF7 wins them by 58% or more the only thing it'll do in the day is stall(of course if it wins by less than that it'll lose even more of the lead instead of stall)
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

I seem to remember people saying that Zelda 1 and SM64 weren't going to win any periods during the day too!

We shall see, anyway. FFVII's best hope is to drag the day vote out into an extended stall, and make its final push over OOT tomorrow evening.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

I'll say it again. If FFVII has enough of a night vote to eliminate all these votes, you should think that OoT was frontloaded and think FFVII is going to win. I don't think it'll happen, but the possibility is still there considering what we've seen in these things.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Actually, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that FFVII does take the lead by 9 AM. It should get pretty close if not.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

If FF7 gets its truck going, perhaps it could happen.

But I'm calling it for OoT. The ASV is going to give it the push it needs.
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The Gamer In Me
I've lost the guru. How? I don't know (lol).

From: UltimaterializerX | #360
No making a new stat topic until the old one is at 450 or more posts. It'll end this dueling crap for good. Anyone have a problem with this?

90% of new topics made early are made by you. The problem here is mostly you, not stat posters in general.
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

If you use FFX Vs. OoT trends as a base, FF7 needs to average around 58% with the 4 AM to 8 AM time period to win this match. Also, FFX only did somewhere between 1-2% worse with its 4-5 hour than when it really got going.

In order words, FF7 needs to win this hour with at least a 56-44 advantage to have a chance of winning
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

44%-34% update. That's a nice start.
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

And so far it seems it's going to go 54-46. 2% short, meaning it'll eat tons of vote cuts from OoT during the day. Probably only between 52-53% or so but that's plenty to get your ass kicked. At least it means FF7 probably won't lose anymore than 52-48
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

I think FFVII can do a bit better than FFX during the day. And blocks as large as hours at this time of day have large variances- look at how FFVII won 2-3 and lost 3-4. One of those hours predicts a fairly comfortable FFVII win I think, the other an easy OOT win.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

nice cut there
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.

And there's a 51 vote cut, FFVII's largest yet. It's cut 210 votes in 45 minutes, so presuming it cuts 300/hour for the next 4 hours, it'll just about tie it up by 9 AM.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Idea for next contest: Only let Europe vote.
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.

It would have been much better if the contest started 3 hours later, just like they did a long time ago. Now OoT's lead is a bit to big to make this really interesting......I think...
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me

Last 4 updates: 36, 9, 51, 42. These kinds of cuts may be the rule and not the exception for the next few hours.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Idea for next contest: Only let Europe vote.

I'd be all about that... though Asia actually seems to have the best taste overall.

Better idea: Make each region its own poll and do a best of 7 or whatever.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I never took any statistics classes, but is a 50-58 swing technically easier to accomplish than a 59-67 swing? If so, FF7 probably wants even more than 58% X_X

I recall hearing often that the further from the middle you get the less wild swings get but I don't know the reasoning or anything behind it
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

If only the lead weren't so high.. I could see FF7 taking the lead, but man.. NA are a bunch of zelda fanboys.. No doubt OoT wins the ASV
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.

Where there's a Cid there's a way... and there ain't no cid in any freaking zelda games!!! go ff7!!! (even though i like ff10 better..)

FFX needs to stop leeching votes at this hour! augh!
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.

I never took any statistics classes, but is a 50-58 swing technically easier to accomplish than a 59-67 swing?

I don't know the reasoning behind it either, but intuitively I'd say yes. Reason is, a 92-100 swing is just about impossible, so....

But as far as this match goes, FFVII =/= FFX.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

I don't think FF7 has shown having a better day vote than FFX at any point. You might as well assume it's worse if you're going to assume it's better. About the same chance of happening
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Time for votal stats!

Zelda: Ocarina of Time kept about 100.95% of its votes from last round. Man, it's votal just keeps going higher and higher. So...what happened in round 3? Do Pokemon and Smash just hurt each other that much?

Final Fantasy X kept about 91.15% of its votes from last round. It seems that there's no overlap between FF and MGS games on different systems.

Metal Gear Solid 4 kept about 76.42% of its votes from last round. Honestly, what could have hurt it? Seems like FF/MGS SFF DOES exist. Forget what I said above.

Super Smash Bros. Brawl kept about 68.22% of its votes from last round. It's older brother was destroyed, but Brawl was apparently able to stand up. Ocarina of Time got about 70.03% on Brawl in the end.

1. Final Fantasy VII (Round 3)
2. Final Fantasy VII (Round 5)
3. Zelda: Ocarina of Time (Round 5)
4. Zelda: Ocarina of Time (Round 4)
5. Final Fantasy VII (Round 4)
6. Zelda: Ocarina of Time (Round 3)
7. Zelda: A Link to the Past (Round 3)
8. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Round 3)
9. Super Mario Bros. (Round 3)
10. Super Smash Bros. Melee (Round 3)
11. Zelda: Twilight Princess (Round 3)
12. The Legend of Zelda (Round 3)
13. Final Fantasy VI (Round 3)
14. Super Mario Bros. 3 (Round 3)
15. Super Mario World (Round 3)
16. Super Mario World (Round 4)
17. Final Fantasy X (Round 3)
18. Super Mario Bros. 3 (Round 4)
19. The Legend of Zelda (Round 4)
20. Metal Gear Solid 4 (Round 3)
21. Final Fantasy X (Round 4)
22. Metal Gear Solid 4 (Round 4)
23. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Round 4)
24. Resident Evil 4 (Round 3)
25. Metal Gear Solid 3 (Round 3)
26. Super Mario 64 (Round 3)
27. Super Mario 64 (Round 4)
28. Pokemon Red/Blue (Round 3) (TIE)
29. Zelda: Twilight Princess (Round 4) (TIE)
30. Chrono Trigger (Round 3)
31. Zelda: A Link to the Past (Round 5)
32. Final Fantasy X (Round 5)
33. Kingdom Hearts (Round 3)
34. Resident Evil 4 (Round 4)
35. Pokemon Red/Blue (Round 4)
36. Metal Gear Solid (Round 3)
37. Oblivion (Round 3)
38. Metal Gear Solid 4 (Round 5)
39. Fallout 3 (Round 3)
40. Final Fantasy IV (Round 3)
41. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Round 5)
42. Final Fantasy VIII (Round 3)
43. Diablo II (Round 3)
44. Call of Duty 4 (Round 3)
45. Super Mario World (Round 5)
46. Super Metroid (Round 3)
47. GoldenEye (Round 3)
48. Super Smash Bros. Melee (Round 4)
49. Tetris (Round 3)
50. Super Mario Bros. 3 (Round 5)
51. Final Fantasy VI (Round 4)
52. Sonic the Hedgehog (Round 3)
53. Mega Man 2 (Round 3)
54. Zelda: Link’s Awakening (Round 3)
55. Super Mario Bros. (Round 4)

I should have 56, not 55, right?

And FFVII cuts almost 300 votes that hour. It'll have this hour to pick up the pace even more.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

OOT by the hour:

1:00 | 55.70%
2:00 | 53.38%
3:00 | 49.25%
4:00 | 50.43%
5:00 | 45.13%

Not bad for FFVII that hour.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Better idea: Make each region its own poll and do a best of 7 or whatever.

Best idea anyone has ever said.
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The Gamer In Me
I've lost the guru. How? I don't know (lol).

OoT finally under 40%.
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Hail Krahenprophet, our new guru overlord!

Even in death, this night vote is the scariest thing I've ever seen.
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.

Actually, this had been bugging me for a while:

FFVII/Monkey Island. Who wins this voting block?
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.