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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 748

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/7/2009 11:36:47 PM | message detail
I doubt people would have much of a fuss if I had made that topic. I think it has more to do with people disliking MWC in general.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 11:36:50 PM | message detail
BT would be funny if I knew he was trolling, but I think he actually believes the crap he posts.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
voltch | Posted 6/7/2009 11:37:12 PM | message detail
european schools are over,well for those preparing exams at the very least,though i think the uk just finished all of their exams.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/7/2009 11:37:30 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | Posted: 6/8/2009 2:36:47 AM | #201
I doubt people would have much of a fuss if I had made that topic. I think it has more to do with people disliking MWC in general.


Gee, you think? You could make the exact same topic with the same post and no one would care.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 11:37:38 PM | message detail
And FFVII blows past 46% on OoT.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:37:42 PM | message detail
Well, FFVII probably isn't going to get rid of this huge lead overnight. But if it's only down by, say.....400 at 8 AM, it might have a chance.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 11:39:15 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #206
Well, FFVII probably isn't going to get rid of this huge lead overnight. But if it's only down by, say.....400 at 8 AM, it might have a chance.


I wouldn't expect much else but stalling from 2-3. Once we get to 3 is when we should start seeing the consistant cuts, and 4-6 should be the big cuts.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2009 11:39:52 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'd expect the vote totals to be high, but I don't know if it'll be more conducive to a comeback. The 2007 final had 190,000 votes and Link couldn't make a comeback with that. This match ain't gettin' anywhere near that.

In one of the earlier topics, I made a prediction that this match won't break 140000 votes (before the match started). Based on the vote totals so far, it might break 140000.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/7/2009 11:40:12 PM | message detail
Only I am awesome enough to derail topics this badly.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
MetricTrout | Posted 6/7/2009 11:40:35 PM | message detail
A chance to do what? FF7 has lost the day vote rather convincingly to every opponent worth anything during the day in the contest.
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xp1337 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:41:04 PM | message detail
Specifically, I was saying I think there's way too much gloom going around here over this result.

Yes, OoT looks good to win this. However, it's never won before. Now, I know Link has just been dominant beyond any belief, but I think it's too early to just get this gloomy about the result.

Sure, it looks completely unlikely that OoT will get knocked down now, but just three hours ago, it seemed like overwhelming sentiment was that FFVII was unstoppable and OoT was just outclassed. So we got an upset.

I mean, this is like reacting to Cloud > Link in 2k3 and FFVII > OoT in 2k4 with, "Great, now Cloud/Final Fantasy VII will never be defeated", and then what happened, Link came right back and crushed everything.

Now, I admit the chances of a FFVII rebound like that seems more unlikely, but I don't know why we're just dismissing everything over for all eternity, especially when this is all being triggered by an upset.

That's why I said I can't get agree with what seemed like the general sentiment here now.

Now if in the next game contest OoT just does the same thing or worse, then it's a completely different story. That's all. But perhaps I'm just a bit too optimistic.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
Zenithian Legend | Posted 6/7/2009 11:42:03 PM | message detail
On the plus side, I voted for FFX!
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Lucid Faia | Posted 6/7/2009 11:42:21 PM | message detail
OoT back up to 1534. XD

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 11:42:29 PM | message detail
I don't think I'd mind as much if something other than Zelda had won SOMETHING since the last Games Contest.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:43:10 PM | message detail
Hmm.....FFX gained about 250 on RBY on thursday from 2-3, and then over 2000 over the next 6 hours until RBY was finally able to begin slowing it down. FFVII will gain much less than 250 this hour, but it's working with higher percentages and more votes than FFX/RBY were, and it should go up more percentagewise than FFX did. Maybe it does have a shot at taking the lead by morning.....maybe.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/7/2009 11:43:14 PM | message detail
There's an L-Block in the way Leon don't pretend you can't see it.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
xp1337 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:43:23 PM | message detail
I don't think I'd mind as much if something other than Zelda had won SOMETHING since the last Games Contest.

Which is why I understand the gloom, I just don't agree with it yet, I think it's an early overreaction right now.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
PiGuy96 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:43:49 PM | message detail
How could you possibly forget the villains contest in 2005?

...Okay, I guess I can understand how you could forget the villains contest.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/7/2009 11:44:44 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | Posted: 6/8/2009 2:43:14 AM | #216
There's an L-Block in the way Leon don't pretend you can't see it.


Joke rallies don't count, plus Link got second place anyway.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 11:46:03 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/7/2009 11:46:58 PM | message detail
No one can help people hold out hope quite like red sox.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 11:47:17 PM | message detail
Oh right, L-Block. Not too thrilled about it winning a contest either, but at least it made for an exciting contest.

Actually, I blame L-Block for this. 2007 was awesome, too awesome, in fact. It gave us a false sense of unpredictability, good matches, and high vote totals, and so now apparently, they're here to stay. 2007 was just a perfect storm.

Here's the thing about 2007. You can't name a first round match that didn't have something crazy or close in it until the last match of division six.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 11:47:28 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #221
No one can help people hold out hope quite like red sox.


honestly im surprised he hasn't posted more of the 2007 crono/vincent comparisons
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Calintares | Posted 6/7/2009 11:47:45 PM | message detail
So how to solve the upper bracket? is it overrated/how much?

does this match tell us anything about the strength of LttP and FFX or just how bad they are being SFFd?
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 6/7/2009 11:48:11 PM | message detail
guys we've been through this before so many times.

What, like 3 different Link > Cloud encounters. Zelda > Final Fantasy in the series contest too.

FFVII isn't coming back.
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MetricTrout | Posted 6/7/2009 11:48:37 PM | message detail
Here is a theory about trends. I think that trends can determine whether a game is gaining or losing strength. If a game has an equal or better ASV than night vote, than it should be good to maintain or even increase in strength. But if a game does most of its damage during the night, then it is going to get weaker and weaker as the years progress.

Any counterexamples? The only one I can think of is Halo.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/7/2009 11:48:38 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 6/8/2009 2:47:17 AM | #222
Oh right, L-Block. Not too thrilled about it winning a contest either, but at least it made for an exciting contest.

Actually, I blame L-Block for this. 2007 was awesome, too awesome, in fact. It gave us a false sense of unpredictability, good matches, and high vote totals, and so now apparently, they're here to stay. 2007 was just a perfect storm.

Here's the thing about 2007. You can't name a first round match that didn't have something crazy or close in it until the last match of division six.


Really?

*checks*
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 11:48:57 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #225
guys we've been through this before so many times.

What, like 3 different Link > Cloud encounters. Zelda > Final Fantasy in the series contest too.

FFVII isn't coming back.


I don't think its gonna win, it'll just be a moral victory if it takes the lead over night before getting buried at day.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 11:50:12 PM | message detail
Pretty much the only way FF7 is going to be competitive again is

Sony and S-E announce Final Fantasy VII remake as one of Playstation 4's launch titles[gn]
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/7/2009 11:50:35 PM | message detail
Leon > Vivi is some crazy match?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 11:51:17 PM | message detail
That's the last match of division 6, isn't it?

And round one only had a handful of duds in the first place.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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Lopen | Posted 6/7/2009 11:51:19 PM | message detail
Any counterexamples? The only one I can think of is Halo.

MGS. I'd also argue that a lot of characters that have good day votes or good night votes don't move much at all.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:52:10 PM | message detail
Here is a theory about trends. I think that trends can determine whether a game is gaining or losing strength. If a game has an equal or better ASV than night vote, than it should be good to maintain or even increase in strength. But if a game does most of its damage during the night, then it is going to get weaker and weaker as the years progress.

Trends are not indicative of strength, but I agree that changes in trends can be indicative of changes in strength.
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xp1337 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:52:55 PM | message detail
Hey, I'm probably wrong for being optimistic that things could change, I know that, but it's either that or hope we go back to the 1v1 format, and I think the former is probably more likely. If neither happens, next contest is going to likely be just miserable.

On that point, how have votals done contest-wide? I know early on they seemed to be losing to 2k6 and the [probably false] hope that it could help bring about the return of 1v1, but how's that turned out in the later rounds?
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/7/2009 11:53:12 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #225
guys we've been through this before so many times.

What, like 3 different Link > Cloud encounters. Zelda > Final Fantasy in the series contest too.

FFVII isn't coming back.


I think you're right, unfortunately. FFVII continues to age, and Nintendo looks like they've even got a very good 2010 lined up, which should raise their stock in the eyes of many gamers. FFVII absolutely needs a remake.

And hell, if it gets one, I'll be a lot more concerned with freeing up $500 in the budget than I would with contest strength.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 11:53:56 PM | message detail
The last few matches have had better vote totals on average, but that's to be expected with the top dogs in it. Cloud/Link will usually outdraw just about anything else as well.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
transience | Posted 6/7/2009 11:54:22 PM | message detail
*pops in hoping the arguing has subsided*

OOT has an awful night vote and a good during-school vote so it's fine here. FF7 could kill it overnight and it'd still win with ease. same trends as Link/Cloud really.
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MetricTrout | Posted 6/7/2009 11:54:55 PM | message detail
I think it is funny how everyone seems to hate the 4-way format now, when the only way that Zelda could possibly lose another contest is in a 4-way. In a 1-on-1, we likely would have seen 3 straight years of Link > Cloud. And we would have many, many years of Link > Cloud to come until the day Cloud falls to Mario or something.

Do not blame the 4-way format for the reason the contest sucks. Blame division by generations. Or even better, blame the fact that this is the way the site is now and nothing is going to change that.

And this contest was not so bad. Better than characters 2004, 2006, and Villains at least.
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xp1337 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:55:30 PM | message detail
The last few matches have had better vote totals on average, but that's to be expected with the top dogs in it. Cloud/Link will usually outdraw just about anything else as well.

Better compared to 2k6 though? Because the best hope for reinstating 1v1 may be if we can show that we had higher vote totals with that format, and so it debunks the idea that 4-ways are somehow an automatic vote draw.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
masseffect90 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:55:41 PM | message detail
I think trends are symptoms of a more important factor: a game's age. I already knew Crono and Chrono trigger were past their prime. I didnt need to read into any trends, I just needed to know that the game is 15 years old. IMO, the day/night split it experiences is a symptom of its age. Older and more dedicated gamers remember it, while younger gamers dont.
hochiminhX | Posted 6/7/2009 11:55:43 PM | message detail
Zelda winning again does not constitute as an upset. That's why everyone is miserable right now. FFVII would at least bring some type of balance. Zelda now has series, characters and now games. FFVII domiannce lasted one year. This Zelda bull**** has lasted 5 years.

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red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:55:50 PM | message detail
CT is probably the best example of that (well, I'm not sure if there are many other examples, but anyway). From 2004 to 2007, CT's day vote became worse every year, culminating in Crono losing the ASV outright to Zero and the infamous Crono/Vincent 2007 match. In 2008, CT's day vote and strength finally steadied, and this year, after CTDS, it seems to have improved somewhat in both categories. Without CTDS, it'd only be a little stronger than FFVI.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 11:55:54 PM | message detail
Nah, the only way for Zelda to lose at this point is to pull it from the contest. The odds of another L-Block are very slim indeed.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 6/7/2009 11:56:12 PM | message detail
until the day Cloud falls to Mario or something.

That happened a long time ago.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/7/2009 11:56:37 PM | message detail
And gentlemen, I know many of you are unwaveringly opposed to this, but it's time to face facts. The 1v1 format is indefinitely gone. Unless you want to abandon all hope of Character Battles ever being worth a damn again (instead opting to beg Bacon for secondary contests like consoles/quotes/music every spring), we need to spicen character battles up. Unless I'm missing something, there are only two ways to accomplish this.

1. Revert to 1v1. Good luck.
2. Expand the roster. With fictional characters people actually care about.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 11:56:54 PM | message detail
finally under 1500
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 11:56:55 PM | message detail
I dunno about compared to 2006 because I haven't checked the vote totals in a long time, but they're way below 2007.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed."
red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:57:01 PM | message detail
Zelda has very real (like 50%) chances of losing today.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 11:57:30 PM | message detail
We could also go for a new gimmick!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed."
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 6/7/2009 11:58:12 PM | message detail
Team battles! <_<
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...