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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 748

red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 5:33:24 AM | message detail
And FFVII crosses 49% on OOT.
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voltch | Posted 6/8/2009 5:34:21 AM | message detail
but oot is stalling,heck now it's gaining.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 5:38:49 AM | message detail
And then we have another 30 vote cut. There ain't no gettin' off this train we're on!
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paulg235 | Posted 6/8/2009 5:39:49 AM | message detail
Under 800 votes now. It could happen after all, I mean, no one expected SM64 AND Zelda 1 to come close to their opponents once they were losing by well over 1000 votes.

And more updates like that, FF7.
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The Gamer In Me
I've lost the guru. How? I don't know (lol).
hochiminhX | Posted 6/8/2009 5:41:13 AM | message detail
Uh, OoT gains like 2000 votes when the ASV hits. But for humors sake, red sox can you post projections?


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I will bury you.
Smurf FAQs | Posted 6/8/2009 5:41:49 AM | message detail
FFX is performing the slowest comeback in the history of mankind. It's taken it 6 hours to gain 190 votes
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.
voltch | Posted 6/8/2009 5:42:57 AM | message detail
only a rally will save FFVII,but hey voters are likely to side with oot instead.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
Sonic_Factor | Posted 6/8/2009 5:44:04 AM | message detail
hmm, that update drove in more average votes then the others in the lst 2 hours or so.. and OoT "magically" went up 30 votes.. Vote stuffing.
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 5:47:41 AM | message detail
Ouch, that update hurt a lot. But yes, here are the projections. They actually look a good deal closer than they ever did last night.

Based on Link/Cloud 2008, OOT wins with 50.38%.
Based on Link/Cloud 2006, OOT wins with 50.42%.
Based on FF/Zelda, OOT wins with 50.63%.
Based on Crono/Vincent 2007, FFVII wins with 50.66%.
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 6/8/2009 5:49:18 AM | message detail
those last two updates had 100 more votes then any of the last ones in the past two hours.. and OoT sudden stalls, god.. i hate vote stuffers
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 5:52:54 AM | message detail
Actually, I think I'm going to use the West Coast Before School Vote interpretation.
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Smurf FAQs | Posted 6/8/2009 5:54:18 AM | message detail
How is Crono/Vincent in anyway relevant to the match at hand?
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 5:55:00 AM | message detail
It isn't, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to continue including it for fun.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/8/2009 5:56:44 AM | message detail
Actually, I think I'm going to use the West Coast Before School Vote interpretation.

That probably makes sense. I remember when we blamed the west coast for the big cuts Zelda 1 got on Mario 3 around 6:00-7:00 PM.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Smurf FAQs | Posted 6/8/2009 5:58:58 AM | message detail
blamed? more like credited.
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 6:01:10 AM | message detail
On one hand, the fact that OOT hasn't managed to win any hours with this morning vote encourages me, on the other hand, stalls with the morning vote very frequently turn into gains with the ASV. It should be a pretty diulted ASV though- OOT will probably wreck the first hour, and there will be panic, but then FFVII will start pulling it together again. The West Coast ASV probably won't help OOT as much as the East Coast ASV; FFVII always does better there.

FFVII's second night vote used to be the best in the business, sans outside factors. It hasn't looked too good this year, but hey FFVII.....you got one more match of classic FFVII trends in you?
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 6:03:37 AM | message detail
OOT by the hour:

1:00 | 55.70%
2:00 | 53.38%
3:00 | 49.25%
4:00 | 50.43%
5:00 | 45.17%
6:00 | 45.00%
7:00 | 49.83%
8:00 | 48.94%
9:00 | 48.62%
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/8/2009 6:03:53 AM | message detail
Nice to see FFVII making this respectable at night.

Now if it wins the ASV that'll be something.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: OoT Points: 451/640
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 6:19:29 AM | message detail
OOT didn't have much of an ASV against FFX last thursday. It kind of just kept getting around what it was getting from 9-10 for the rest of the match. Keep the faith.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 6/8/2009 6:46:03 AM | message detail
I did it!

Did I not say when nominations were released that my sole aim was to ensure FF7 did not win? Lo and behold >_>;

No, but seriously, brilliant result and I don't even like Zelda that much.
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Justice for FD
"This topic is now about Renee Walker aka Rack Bauer." - LostHisHardcore http://i39.tinypic.com/jtnpfb.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2009 6:52:45 AM | message detail
Remember, FFVII still had a great morning vote in every match it was in, and so did FFX. The ASV is where it got hurt. I'm impressed it's come this far back though. Still rooting for the upset!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed."
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/8/2009 6:54:20 AM | message detail
Never thought I'd see the day when FFVII winning a match was considered an upset.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
charmander6000 | Posted 6/8/2009 6:56:27 AM | message detail
With the ASV we could possibly have Twilight Princess > Link to the Past in the stats.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: OoT Points: 451/640
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 7:26:07 AM | message detail
OOT won the 9-10 hour, its first victory since 4 AM. I'm not really sure what to make of it- if we were following true summer trends, this would be the height of the Zelda morning vote, and FFVII would look pretty good. If we're following schoolday trends, then we should be shifting from the BSV to the DSV right now, and things look awful for FFVII. We're probably somewhere in between those.

OOT by the hour:

1:00 | 55.70%
2:00 | 53.38%
3:00 | 49.25%
4:00 | 50.43%
5:00 | 45.17%
6:00 | 45.00%
7:00 | 49.83%
8:00 | 48.94%
9:00 | 48.62%
10:00 | 50.98%

Projections:

Based on Link/Cloud 2008, OOT wins with 50.39%.
Based on Link/Cloud 2006, OOT wins with 50.11%.
Based on FF/Zelda, OOT wins with 50.57%.

FFVII still improving with the projections, but they probably overrate it a bit.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/8/2009 7:27:22 AM | message detail
Haha, seriously?
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
creativename | Posted 6/8/2009 7:32:10 AM | message detail
At this point the only thing that can save FF7 is 4chan.

Heh, which would actually be like the funniest **** ever, but only because that would never happen.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 7:35:31 AM | message detail
OOT trying to put FFVII away right now. Hope is fading. I don't think it's going to go up much with the ASV, but if it just gets 51% or even 50% hours until 8 PM, that would pretty much be game.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/8/2009 7:36:56 AM | message detail
Its been game since about an hour into the match !!
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 7:43:34 AM | message detail
FFVII's best hope here is that a lot more schools finished since last thursday. OOT didn't really improve much at all against FFX with the ASV compared to the last 3 hours of the DSV last thursday. Now, with normal summer, trends, it would do worse in the afternoon than in the very powerful Zelda morning vote, so FFX not gaining with the afternoon/evening would seem to imply some ASV to counteract those summer trends. Just gotta hope for change.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 7:44:51 AM | message detail
Speaking of which, I'm not convinced summer and weekend trends are actually the same. I don't think they are.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
charmander6000 | Posted 6/8/2009 7:52:16 AM | message detail
Speaking of which, I'm not convinced summer and weekend trends are actually the same. I don't think they are.

How big of a working population does GameFAQs have?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3443

This poll says between 20-30%, but I'm pretty sure many University students find work in the summer.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: OoT Points: 451/640
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/8/2009 7:52:20 AM | message detail
Ocarina's vote stuffing.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
HaRRicH | Posted 6/8/2009 7:53:18 AM | message detail
Speaking of change, you gotta keep the Crono/Vincent comparisons with each comparison! Can't drop that until the match is over.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 8:06:14 AM | message detail
OOT gets a 53% hour. Outside of the 6-7 hour, this is looking a lot like pure summer trends- OOT going up this much with the "DSV" tells you that. FFVII probably can't allow OOT 53% hours during the morning even with pure summer trends though, so this is probably over regardless. FFVII has like a 5% chance.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/8/2009 8:07:29 AM | message detail
-5% chance, maybe.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
transience | Posted 6/8/2009 8:21:06 AM | message detail
man, FF7 has zero chance, I admire you for keeping the hope alive but there's nothing to cling to here.
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xyzzy
OCARINA OF TIME I HATE YOU but Krakenprophet knows what's up
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/8/2009 8:22:37 AM | message detail
The fun thing will be to see if OoT can completely reverse the 2004 result by the end of the match.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 8:31:00 AM | message detail
Very few things in these contests have exactly zero probability. 5% is only 1 in 20- that probably sounds much better.
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transience | Posted 6/8/2009 8:32:32 AM | message detail
nah, I like 0%.
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xyzzy
OCARINA OF TIME I HATE YOU but Krakenprophet knows what's up
RPGuy96 | Posted 6/8/2009 8:42:32 AM | message detail
FFVII should end up in the 47-48% range on Ocarina, so old games will end up looking a little worse than this, but here we go:

1 Ocarina of Time 50.00%
2 Final Fantasy VII 48.70%
3 Red/Blue/Yellow 39.87%
4 Super Smash Bros. Brawl 38.64%
5 Super Smash Bros. Melee 38.33%
6 Twilight Princess 35.82%
7 A Link to the Past 35.66%
8 Super Mario 64 35.47%
9 Super Mario World 35.47%
10 Metal Gear Solid 35.11%
11 Final Fantasy X 34.59%
12 Super Mario Bros. 3 34.23%
13 Chrono Trigger 33.45%
14 Resident Evil 4 33.83%
15 Kingdom Hearts II 33.36%
16 Final Fantasy VI 32.48%
17 Metal Gear Solid 4 32.48%
18 Kingdom Hearts 32.40%
19 GoldenEye 32.17%
20 Gold/Silver 31.73%

Possibly overrated: everything, but especially Melee and FFVI since their matches are based on LFF matches that we have no reason to believe are valid. There also appears to be a lot of questions about Brawl's value which affects its quarter of the bracket.

Possibly underrated: Nintendo games in FFVII's half bracket. There was a lot of LFF flying around, and it could have affected LttP and Mario 64. And, of course, I have no idea how to fairly rate anything in divisions 1 and 2, so Mario World and Mario 3 are purely guesses. Same with Mario 1 and Zelda 1, but they are #23 and #24, respectively.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 8:44:58 AM | message detail
Why is RBY at 39% on OOT? It got just below 37% once and 34% the other time.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/8/2009 8:44:58 AM | message detail
Heh. What stats.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 8:46:44 AM | message detail
Not that there's anything wrong with RBY being #3, of course.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 6/8/2009 8:46:59 AM | message detail
ngirl suggested to use its value on GS, GS on MGS, and MGS on Ocarina. This takes care of Ocarina/RBY SFF, which tends to underrated it, but introduces RBY/GS SFF, which tends to overrate. So it's probably overrated.

The formula looks cool though!

=Division.D72/(Round2.C76/Round2.C74*0.5/Round1.C88*0.5)*0.5
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96
red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2009 8:49:02 AM | message detail
FFVII cut. Now let's get about 147 more of those, Cloud.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/8/2009 8:55:48 AM | message detail
though Asia actually seems to have the best taste overall.

Please tell me this was a JOKE POST? BEcaue JRPG's is the only interesting genre out there?

Butthurt FF fanboys need to stop crying.
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Playing: Star Ocean: TLH | Ninja Gaiden Black | Ar tonelico II
Favourite game ever - Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
voltch | Posted 6/8/2009 8:56:44 AM | message detail
your the joke for trying to belittle people with different opinions.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
charmander6000 | Posted 6/8/2009 9:00:00 AM | message detail
So are we going to use the other 748 or should we move on to 749?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: OoT Points: 451/640
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/8/2009 9:03:12 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/8/2009 9:03:52 AM | message detail
Cry more.

Great to see OoT owning, shame FFX is so close to Lttp. Insult really.
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Playing: Star Ocean: TLH | Ninja Gaiden Black | Ar tonelico II
Favourite game ever - Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time