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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 746

hochiminhX | Posted 6/7/2009 5:56:10 PM | message detail
The problem with RBY and with Pokemon in general is that they do terrible in 1vs1 settings. That's because while Pokemon has a strong loyal fanbase, the majority of the site doesn't really care about it. This is why Pikachu did badly 1vs1 but great in a four-way. Same with Pokemon. I mean, it lost to Metroid in the series contest and that was fairly recently.

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I will bury you.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 5:59:48 PM | message detail
We haven't seen Pokemon in a one-on-one setting since 2003 (No, Nidoran F doesn't count), so it's hard to say they do terrible in one-on-one settings. Yeah, there was that match against Metroid, but the Series Contest seems like an isolated incident at this point.

I'd like to see Pikachu face someone like Knuckles and see how that goes.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
paulg235 | Posted 6/7/2009 6:01:35 PM | message detail
In Pokemon's defense, it did 47-53 Metroid, and Metroid was SFF'ed to death by Zelda in the following round. Sure, I'll agree that Pokemon does better in 4-ways, but it would perform a hell of a lot better nowadays. For one thing, Pikachu would defeat Fox.
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The Gamer In Me
I've lost the guru. How? I don't know (lol).
nostalgic_git | Posted 6/7/2009 6:02:02 PM | message detail
My money's on FFVII for overall winner - it would be my 'best game ever' as well.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 6:03:02 PM | message detail
Not lookin' like that's gonna happen.

I don't know about that. OOT's only 0.14% away right now, it gained 0.14% on FFX the past hour, and there's still 3 hours to go. This second night vote so far hasn't seem to have changed much of anything regarding OOT's percentage of incoming votes.

So...FFX vs. TP: Who you got?

FFX, but without much confidence.

FFX vs. MGS?

MGS, but again, this should be close and FFX could pull it off.

TP vs. MGS?

MGS

Brawl vs. Melee?

Melee, kind of on principle more than anything else at this point. Objectively, they're probably about equal in strength.

1. Final Fantasy VII
2. Ocarina of Time
3. A Link to the Past
4. Super Mario 64
5. Chrono Trigger
6. Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
7. Super Mario World
8. Super Mario Bros. 3
9. Super Smash Bros. Melee
10. Super Smash Bros. Brawl
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
hochiminhX | Posted 6/7/2009 6:04:06 PM | message detail
I think the FF fanbase is smarter than the Nintendo fanase. They knew to abandon Sephiroth when Cloud was in trouble. The Nintendo fanbase failed to abort TP when Brawl was in trouble against MGS4.

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I will bury you.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 6:04:18 PM | message detail
The thing that ticks me off about this contest is that we came into this contest expecting to get a lot of answers. Well, we did, but now we probably end the contest with just as many questions as last time.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 6:05:00 PM | message detail
Seems kind of weird to me to put TP(A game that showed it would struggle with RE4 besides that 1 match out of 3) on the same level as a game that beat RE4 57-43 in match with no reason for an overperformance.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 6:05:47 PM | message detail
But yet TP did better on Brawl than MGS4 did, and I don't know why Brawl does better against TP indirectly.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 6:07:28 PM | message detail
That happens with every 4-way contest. At least it looks like we will get a more or less fair match between FFVII and OOT, which will be at least far better than the last two finals in determining our #1.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 6:14:47 PM | message detail
Seems kind of weird to me to put TP(A game that showed it would struggle with RE4 besides that 1 match out of 3) on the same level as a game that beat RE4 57-43 in match with no reason for an overperformance.

It was only 55-45, but that is weird indeed. It seems pretty clear to me that Brawl overperformed by a sizable amount on MGS4 in the division final, but that still doesn't solve this puzzle with TP and MGS4. Maybe TP/KH LFF is real?
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 6:16:35 PM | message detail
Even if TP/KH LFF were real, that wouldn't explain how round 1 KH2 lost to RE4 and KH2 managed 48% on TP. Even with LFF, that shouldn't give a reason for KH2 itself to overperform on TP
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 6:18:27 PM | message detail
Unless you want to throw RE4 and TP LFF into the mix as well. But then RE4 should have lost to KH2 in the second round. But then you can explain it with Gears of War/RE4 LFF!

And then... and then...
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 6:19:35 PM | message detail
It's like the Bowser/Yoshi/Luigi group. Never made any sense at all.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/7/2009 6:22:38 PM | message detail
I'd like to see some favorite game in the series polls (at least for Smash and MGS, and probably Mario as well). We can do a round of those and skip the "Got X Console" polls, which we run like twice a year anyway.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
RPGuy96 | Posted 6/7/2009 6:22:56 PM | message detail
Obvious Twilight Princess/Half-Life 2 silent protagonist LFF if you ask me.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 6:25:56 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 6:27:15 PM | message detail
Honestly, the simplest answer may be to simply throw out Brawl's 58% performance on MGS4. Weird but... it's not ridiculous. CoD4 did drop like 8% going into that match from the last one. I mean yeah, Galaxy was in the previous poll. but with how badly Galaxy was getting slaughtered by SSBB, it's hard to see it being there making SSBB performing 8% worse. Giving ALL of Galaxy's votes to Brawl would be what is pretty much required for CoD4 to drop that much

And let's not forget GTA4 dropping 5% AFTER Galaxy gets added to the poll. That just sounds ridiculous.

I think Brawl is the culprit here in this nonsensical stats play
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/7/2009 6:30:12 PM | message detail
I think this format is the culprit, myself.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 6:32:13 PM | message detail
Blaming everything on Brawl would make Ulti pretty happy though
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 6:33:11 PM | message detail
No, Brawl is to blame for everything. Why do you think we have 4-ways? It's because Nintendo tried to make sure 1v1s are unfun in Brawl. Notice how we didn't change formats until Brawl hype became big, and now that it's actually come out and all our worst fears came true, Bacon wants to continue 4-ways indefinitely. When in doubt, blame Brawl.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/7/2009 6:35:27 PM | message detail
Post of the contest.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 6:38:46 PM | message detail
Time to listen to and revel in the Ocarina of Time soundtrack for the next 2 hours. Then it's FFVII time!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/7/2009 6:39:30 PM | message detail
One excellent post after another from you!
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 6:41:01 PM | message detail
I'd like to see some favorite game in the series polls (at least for Smash and MGS, and probably Mario as well).

I'd like to see a Mario poll to see who wins and how Galaxy does. I'd like to see a Zelda poll to see how Twilight Princess does. It used to be that we'd get one of these polls every time a major game in a major series was released.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
nintendogirl1 | Posted 6/7/2009 6:41:27 PM | message detail
I'm really curious, how the **** is anyone meant to make stats for Division 1?

With Zelda overperforming on three Marios and Mario 1 getting crushed, I don't see how it's possible.
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:/
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 6:43:26 PM | message detail
The easiest thing to do is to just use Mario 3/Zelda 2004 and go from there.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
SonicRaptor | Posted 6/7/2009 6:43:26 PM | message detail
That was always going to be the problem with four-packs: you get matches like Zelda vs. 3 Mario games which would make even the experienced X-Stat calculator here throw up their hands and walk out.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
RPGuy96 | Posted 6/7/2009 6:55:38 PM | message detail
There's also the problem of giving Mario 3/Mario World values on FFVII, since their only match with it was in FFVII/LttP/Mario World/Mario 3. My solution to both of these is terrible but I don't really know what else to use:

For division 1 on Mario 3/Mario World: I gave Zelda 1 its 2004 percentage on Mario 3 as what it "should" have gotten on Mario World. (I was going to change this back to Mario 3 if it beat World in the semis, but that didn't happen.) Then I used SMB in the division final to get a Mario 1 on Mario World value, and then went from there to get the rest of division 1. It doesn't look too terrible; Tetris and Mega Man 2 are the 10th and 11th games but they're over Battletoads so it more or less works out.

For Mario World/Mario 3 on FFVII, I gave Mario World Mario 64's value on FFVII from the quarterfinal. This has absolutely no basis in fact, it's just a guess. From there I just used the values from the division 1/2 quarterfinal to get the rest of those games.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 6:57:10 PM | message detail
That's basically what I did there as well. The upper quarter of the bracket is a mess because of the three Mario games and all the SFF.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Silverflash-x | Posted 6/7/2009 6:57:43 PM | message detail
I don't think tomorrow will give us a very interesting match. =/
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Q. If your canoe is in a tree with its headlights on, how many pancakes does it take to get to the moon?
A. None. Snakes don't have armpits.
ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/7/2009 7:11:24 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-63-1.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-63-2.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-63-3.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-63-4.jpg
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 7:11:28 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-63-1.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-63-2.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-63-3.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-63-4.jpg
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 7:11:47 PM | message detail
Argh, 4 seconds
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 7:12:26 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-63-3.jpg

Heh, I like that one
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/7/2009 7:13:00 PM | message detail
Me too, but I think the shot at the beginning with all the weapons at Zanarkand would have been better for FFX.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/7/2009 7:13:09 PM | message detail
Bacon lacking a sense of humor. Unsurprising.
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I can feel it coming over me; I feel it all around me.
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg
ZFS | Posted 6/7/2009 7:14:46 PM | message detail
Number four is Zen's isn't it

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
MetricTrout | Posted 6/7/2009 7:17:03 PM | message detail
Hey, I like the swords pic.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/7/2009 7:17:03 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | Posted: 6/7/2009 10:14:46 PM | #388
Number four is Zen's isn't it


Yeah, you have a problem with that one too? All I did was remove the red. This is the least "gimmicky" or "artsy" I've ever done.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
transience | Posted 6/7/2009 7:17:09 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-63-3.jpg

buster sword wins this, master sword no chance
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
ZFS | Posted 6/7/2009 7:17:34 PM | message detail
I can tell because you got crazy with the filters again !

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 7:17:41 PM | message detail
Buster Sword only has power in the hands of Cloud, title screen Buster Sword has no chance!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/7/2009 7:18:24 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | Posted: 6/7/2009 10:17:34 PM | #392
I can tell because you got crazy with the filters again !


IT'S NOT A FILTER

I REMOVED THE RED DAMMIT

(there is a difference)

not like you can't tell who's who

oh whatever I give up there's no pleasing you guys
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/7/2009 7:18:28 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3504&region=PH

Lol Ocarina lost to Melee in the Philippines.
transience | Posted 6/7/2009 7:18:44 PM | message detail
and I'm 100% sure that #1 and #4 want OOT to win
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 7:18:54 PM | message detail
Don't even act like you care about pleasing anyone with your pics, Zen!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
transience | Posted 6/7/2009 7:19:10 PM | message detail
and yeah you can tell that's Zen's, they all have the same general vibe
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
Xuxon | Posted 6/7/2009 7:19:25 PM | message detail
Me too, but I think the shot at the beginning with all the weapons at Zanarkand would have been better for FFX.

i thought about that but i couldn't find a good quality pic, only **** youtube quality. brotherhood didn't look right at all in it.
ZFS | Posted 6/7/2009 7:19:41 PM | message detail
lens flare says what's up

and whatever it is you used (gradient overlay?) to make the characters have a blue-ish tint. i'm not sure what the red thing is at the bottom, so i'll cut you some slack there. could've done without the dates, too !

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif