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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 746

Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/7/2009 11:30:41 AM | message detail
doesn't matter wether Goldeneye is a nintendo game or not. Majority of voters who voted for it are probably Nintendo fans. It was one of the most popular and best sellign games on the N64 for gods sakes. Doesn't make it a Nintendo game but it makes it a nintendo fanbase driven game. Rare made it. So it's a Rare game. Technically.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 11:32:03 AM | message detail

From: Lord_Yggdrassil | #251
doesn't matter wether Goldeneye is a nintendo game or not. Majority of voters who voted for it are probably Nintendo fans. It was one of the most popular and best sellign games on the N64 for gods sakes. Doesn't make it a Nintendo game but it makes it a nintendo fanbase driven game. Rare made it. So it's a Rare game. Technically.


And Hal Labs, which was also a Nintendo 2nd party at the point of Melees release, made SSB series. If Goldeneye is a Rare game, and not a Nintendo game... then Smash Bros is a Hal Labs game, not a Nintendo game. So don't use that logic.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 11:33:09 AM | message detail
Actually hell, Hal Labs isn't even owned by Nintendo:

"It is an independent studio, creating games exclusively for Nintendo."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Labs
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 11:34:41 AM | message detail
"It is an independent studio, creating games exclusively for Nintendo."

Key word.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/7/2009 11:35:15 AM | message detail
Well we'll see won't see. it will be an interesting match.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 11:36:07 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #254
"It is an independent studio, creating games exclusively for Nintendo."

Key word.


And so did Rare till Nintendo sold them >_>
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/7/2009 11:39:08 AM | message detail
Because smash bros has NOTHING to do with Nintendo right? Only it has friggin Nitnendo based characters in the damn game essentially making it a Nintendo game. Goldenye is a game based of a MOVIE. It's got nothing to do with Nintendo except for the fact that it appeared on their console.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 11:40:06 AM | message detail

From: Lord_Yggdrassil | #257
Because smash bros has NOTHING to do with Nintendo right? Only it has friggin Nitnendo based characters in the damn game essentially making it a Nintendo game. Goldenye is a game based of a MOVIE. It's got nothing to do with Nintendo except for the fact that it appeared on their console.


The content of the game means nothing; only who owns the rights to the game, and who financially backed it and published it. Without Nintendos financial backing, Rare couldn't have made Goldeneye.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/7/2009 11:42:30 AM | message detail
Looks like we're cutting cookies after all. Hats off to MGS4 and Brawl though, they had great runs.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/7/2009 11:45:18 AM | message detail
only who owns the rights to the game

Except they don't fully own rights to the game anymore or the james bond license.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2009 11:45:25 AM | message detail
OoT is already Stronger than it was 5 years ago. I've said this many times. Times have changed from 5 years ago, this site is far more Nintendo dominant than it was those years ago when it was Sqaure>Everything. Zelda beaitng FF is an example of this. Links increasing gap between him and cloud is also much bigger. Zelda is the most popular series on this site, so that alone tells you OoT is almost certainly going to get a higher % on FFVII.

I did find this match:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455

You could make an argument about how the Series Contest final was basically OoT vs. FFVII. Still, pretty good performance from Zelda there, which gives confidence that OoT could get at least 47% on FFVII, though getting at least 48% could be possible.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:45:45 AM | message detail
FFX at 35.80% on OoT right now. What does red sox think about this performance, relative to LTTP, of course?

Let's see if OOT can push FFX below what LTTP got on FFVII yesterday (34.56%) despite having 2 Nintendo games in there. If that happens, and FFVII/OOT isn't close tomorrow, then yeah, LTTP with high 50s against FFX looks good. Brawl is holding up better than I thought it would here, which makes it a bit harder for OOT to kill FFX, but it might push it below LTTP's mark yesterday anyway, although a doubling looks out of the question now.

35.1% is what MGS got on OOT with a similar setup (replace Brawl with Pokemon and MGS4 with FFVIII), so if FFX goes below that MGS > FFX also looks good, but it's very close.

LTTP surprised me yesterday with how well it performed relative to FFVII- just 2% lower than the previous round despite having 2 Mario games instead of relatively even competition. That suggests that FFVI probably hurt FFVII a bit worse than Mario 64 hurt LTTP, I suppose.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 11:46:19 AM | message detail

From: Lord_Yggdrassil | #260
only who owns the rights to the game

Except they don't fully own rights to the game anymore or the james bond license.


They own the rights enough to block a release of it on XBLA.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/7/2009 11:47:02 AM | message detail
With FFX in the final, is OOT the favorite again? Or is there probably an FF7/OOT overlap on this site with us looking at 55-45 again?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 11:47:50 AM | message detail
With FFX in the final, is OOT the favorite again?

Why would it be? FFVII's gonna kill FFX harder than OoT kills LTTP in all likelihood.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:48:16 AM | message detail
And FFVII vs. OOT tomorrow matters a lot in terms of comparing older games to newer games. It's probably a fairly even fight- LTTP will hold up better, but it also doesn't overlap as closely with OOT as FFX does with FFVII. FFVI probably doesn't overlap with VII nearly as much as X does either, for that matter.
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Smurf FAQs | Posted 6/7/2009 11:49:49 AM | message detail
LttP is much closer to OoT then FFX is to FFVII, the match has the advantage firmly handed to FFVII, as if it needed it.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 11:50:34 AM | message detail
By the way, has anyone made any pics for the final tomorrow? I've only seen one other pic besides Kleenex's so far.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:51:54 AM | message detail
As if there's need for any pics aside from time.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:52:08 AM | message detail
time = mine...somehow.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 11:54:25 AM | message detail
I think FFVII has looked a bit stronger than OOT every round since round 3, although it's possible that tranny's right and the older games have just fallen a lot compared to the newer ones. In retrospect, round 2 looks that way too- Goldeneye was more or less an untested entity, and there was never a reason to believe it wasn't really strong; we just presumed it to be so (probably wrongly). SMRPG of course drew probably its worst possible opponent in Chrono Trigger in 2004, and has been underrated from the start. OOT's demolition of FFVIII/FFIX/Starcraft also does not look as impressive anymore after FFVIII took last place in round 3.
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creativename | Posted 6/7/2009 12:02:09 PM | message detail
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/BGE2finals.png

^Was this perfect pic actually submitted? We know it wouldn't get accepted but it would be a travesty if it wasn't at least submitted :)
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transience | Posted 6/7/2009 12:04:49 PM | message detail
oh, it's been submitted.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/7/2009 12:05:01 PM | message detail
Kleenex better have submitted it.

http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/9059/finalsq.png

Not as good as Kleenex's, but more likely to be accepted, and keeping with our theme.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 12:06:02 PM | message detail
KP's pic is yoblazer approved
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creativename | Posted 6/7/2009 12:06:40 PM | message detail
I think people are overrating FF7's chances - it should be the favorite but Ocarina has an excellent chance.

And the presence of FFX/LttP adds uncertainty - logically you're inclined to think that is more in favor of FF7, but it could well not be the case if the FF overlap is worse; and we're really not sure about that. We don't have enough evidence to know how the SFF dynamics will play out. Lots of weird things could potentially happen.

I'd peg Ocarina's chances at above 40% to win tomorrow.

And we know that it's going to be winning early for sure. I hope people who are so confident in FF7 winning don't get over-excited just by that; it'll take some time for FF7 to take the lead.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 12:07:15 PM | message detail
I don't think anyone's saying FFVII is a lock. I don't think I've heard that anyway.
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creativename | Posted 6/7/2009 12:07:59 PM | message detail
http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/9059/finalsq.png

The awesome thing about this is that LttP would probably dilute Ocarina's board vote with it due to joke love :)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/7/2009 12:08:09 PM | message detail
I'm not so sure FF7 does poorly at the start. The only reason it does so poorly at the start of every round is because everyone voting at that time period knows it doesn't need their help to smash the competition...except now it does. Being the heavy bracket favorite helps.

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creativename | Posted 6/7/2009 12:09:09 PM | message detail
I didn't see anyone call it a lock and wasn't implying that people were saying that, but people seem extremely confident in FF7, and it seems like Ocarina winning would be considered a significant upset.
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transience | Posted 6/7/2009 12:09:34 PM | message detail
FF7 vs. OOT strikes me as a very different kind of match. I'm not convinced this will follow normal trends.. FF7 might get out to a quick start here. it's going to have brackets and for the first time all contest, its percentage actually matters. this is a match unlike anything we've seen in this contest.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 12:09:57 PM | message detail
If Brawl's round 3 match with MGS4 is legit, then it looks like a tier 2 game, also.....probably around the bottom of that tier. I really don't think that match or RE4's round 3 match against TP were good reads on those games though. TP and Brawl really stood out in those matches. Brawl, Melee, and MGS are probably our top contenders for the 9-10 spots now.
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ObscureMammoth | Posted 6/7/2009 12:10:33 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #278
http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/9059/finalsq.png

The awesome thing about this is that LttP would probably dilute Ocarina's board vote with it due to joke love :)


OUR LOVE IS REAL!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 12:10:40 PM | message detail
I am confident in FFVII, but at the same time, OoT winning wouldn't surprise me.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/7/2009 12:11:22 PM | message detail
Why will they not have a bonus match 1v1 of winner and runner up? Isn't that the true way to find the potential and ultimate winner?
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ZFS | Posted 6/7/2009 12:11:40 PM | message detail
http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/9059/finalsq.png

If only we could boot these bottom two...!

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red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 12:12:46 PM | message detail
FFVII is certainly not a lock. It's also not a lock that OOT is winning at the start. It couldn't win even the first 5 minutes against FFVII in 2004, and FFVII's early vote was already really bad that year (FFVII/CT was actually a bigger shift percentagewise than Crono/Vincent even, Sephiroth/Bowser/Ganon effect or not).
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transience | Posted 6/7/2009 12:12:49 PM | message detail
I'd give Ocarina a 20-25% chance of winning. that's pretty good chances considering what a heavy bracket upset it would be.

FF7 remains the clear favourite until something goes above and beyond what FF7 has done. Ocarina hasn't. I did this with Link/Cloud in 2007 -- Cloud was putting up better numbers than Link and I said "you know, I don't care. it needs to go way beyond Link before I consider it to win." I'm doing the same with FF7.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 12:12:53 PM | message detail
Why will they not have a bonus match 1v1 of winner and runner up? Isn't that the true way to find the potential and ultimate winner?

It's possible they will, but with Bacon, you don't know if he'll bother.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 12:17:22 PM | message detail
And yeah, I was really down on FFVII after round 2, but I was very wrong. Now, FFVII's competition in that round actually looks stronger.

Goldeneye > FFVIII
SMRPG > FFIX
Mario Kart 64 > Starcraft

The 3 Nintendo games have triple SFF, while FFVII/FFIX is just 2-way SFF, but the overlap is probably much greater so it comes out to around the same thing, and FFVII's pack actually looks stronger.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/7/2009 12:20:30 PM | message detail
OoT would have a much better shot at beating FF7 1 on 1 than it does tonight, and I'm not sure if Bacon would want his contest invalidated by that.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 12:21:10 PM | message detail
Watch FF7 beat OoT like 58-42% or something
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ZFS | Posted 6/7/2009 12:23:03 PM | message detail
OoT might have a better shot 1v1, but I don't think it wins tonight or in any type of bonus match.


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ZFS | Posted 6/7/2009 12:24:08 PM | message detail
Though that's not to say Ocarina has no chance, just that I don't think it wins in either format.

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transience | Posted 6/7/2009 12:25:01 PM | message detail
at the beginning of the contest, even before round 1, I said how I thought OOT was a better game for blowouts than FF7. round 2 made me waver in my faith a little, but I think I was right - FF7 just isn't going to put up massive numbers like OOT can. I still say that FF7 would have done worse vs. that Simcity fourpack than Mario 3 did.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 12:25:41 PM | message detail
If FFVII/OOT isn't close tomorrow, so that Bacon is very confident in FFVII winning the rematch, he might allow it.
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paulg235 | Posted 6/7/2009 12:26:59 PM | message detail
Am I the only one who'd brought up the Link/Ganondorf and Link/Zelda matches?

Ganondorf only grabbed like 12.1% of the votes in his match against Link.
Zelda only grabbed something like 11.24% of the votes in her match.

That gives me no reason to not expect OoT will not only SFF LttP worse than FF7 will SFF FFX, but I expect LttP to be close to 11%. Can you honestly see FF7 SFF'ing FFX to 11% when at best could only SFF FF6 to 14%?
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ZFS | Posted 6/7/2009 12:29:07 PM | message detail
Link vs. Ganondorf/Zelda is significantly different from Ocarina of Time vs. Link to the Past, for one. Regardless of which game you like more between the two, odds are great that you ain't voting for Ganon or Zelda over Link. You could vote Link in every match and still consider LttP your favorite Zelda game.

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charmander6000 | Posted 6/7/2009 12:29:24 PM | message detail
That gives me no reason to not expect OoT will not only SFF LttP worse than FF7 will SFF FFX, but I expect LttP to be close to 11%. Can you honestly see FF7 SFF'ing FFX to 11% when at best could only SFF FF6 to 14%?

Again there are a lot of Zelda fans that love LttP and think OoT is overrated.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/7/2009 12:44:51 PM | message detail
Ganondorf only grabbed like 12.1% of the votes in his match against Link.
Zelda only grabbed something like 11.24% of the votes in her match.


wow that's a horrible logic. Fail.

LttP and OoT are the best two games of their series which involve the same characters. FFX/FFVII are different games with different characters. Almost different fanbases. the LFF factor for OoT/Lttp is much MUCH greater.
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