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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 746

RockMFR 5 | Posted 6/6/2009 11:43:24 PM | message detail
Prediction: FFX builds up a lead of 800 over the next 7 hours.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
transience | Posted 6/6/2009 11:43:52 PM | message detail
MGS4's in trouuuuuble
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xyzzy
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ZFS | Posted 6/6/2009 11:47:28 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy X comeback confirmed

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/6/2009 11:48:53 PM | message detail
Prediction: FFX builds up a lead of 800 over the next 7 hours.

FFX will start dying around 8:00 AM, which is around when the ASV starts on a weekend match. In fact, FFX's strongest hour last round was from 5:00-6:00 AM, then it dropped off there for the BSV and DSV and then dropped off even more for the ASV.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
MnMZero | Posted 6/6/2009 11:49:14 PM | message detail
I hate you all
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/6/2009 11:50:18 PM | message detail
MGS4 will die at 8 AM too
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/6/2009 11:51:22 PM | message detail
MGS4 will die at 8 AM too

I think it's been established here that MGS4 should have a better ASV than FFX, even if they both have a bad ASV. MGS4's should be slightly better.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
transience | Posted 6/6/2009 11:51:54 PM | message detail
Luster'd

brb voting for FFX
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xyzzy
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/6/2009 11:51:58 PM | message detail
ffx is just going ape**** right now
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Master Moltar | Posted 6/6/2009 11:55:10 PM | message detail
woahhhhh FFX

datnightvote.jpg
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Moltar Status: storm of loyalty
Match 62 - Bracket: OoT > FFX - Vote: MGS4 (439/576)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/7/2009 12:09:13 AM | message detail
I can't see MGS using its day vote to remedy this. Surprises abound, but after two months, the cookie cutter final will hold true.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/7/2009 12:15:10 AM | message detail
Goodnight, sweet prince. Hopefully, this will be decided enough so that we won't have to sit through some stupid jostling, which means Ocarina will have all day to simmer its percentage. I'm actually excited for the final - let's do this!
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/7/2009 12:33:09 AM | message detail
The penultimate votal stats!

Super Mario World kept about 54.47% of its votes from last round. Super Mario 64 was apparently able to resist SFF from Zelda 3 (even beating the game everywhere aside from North America), but other 2D Nintendo titles will just cave in, apparently.

Super Mario Bros. 3 kept about 55.42% of its votes from last round. More proof for my theory above.

Final Fantasy VII kept about 104.75% of its votes from last round. Yep, having non-Nintendo STF helped it big time here.

Zelda: A Link to the Past kept about 95.8% of its votes from last round. Two 2d Mario titles just weren't going to stand up to it, plain and simple.

1. Final Fantasy VII (Round 3)
2. Final Fantasy VII (Round 5)
3. Zelda: Ocarina of Time (Round 4)
4. Final Fantasy VII (Round 4)
5. Zelda: Ocarina of Time (Round 3)
6. Zelda: A Link to the Past (Round 3)
7. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Round 3)
8. Super Mario Bros. (Round 3)
9. Super Smash Bros. Melee (Round 3)
10. Zelda: Twilight Princess (Round 3)
11. The Legend of Zelda (Round 3)
12. Final Fantasy VI (Round 3)
13. Super Mario Bros. 3 (Round 3)
14. Super Mario World (Round 3)
15. Super Mario World (Round 4)
16. Final Fantasy X (Round 3)
17. Super Mario Bros. 3 (Round 4)
18. The Legend of Zelda (Round 4)
19. Metal Gear Solid 4 (Round 3)
20. Final Fantasy X (Round 4)
21. Metal Gear Solid 4 (Round 4)
22. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Round 4)
23. Resident Evil 4 (Round 3)
24. Metal Gear Solid 3 (Round 3)
25. Super Mario 64 (Round 3)
26. Super Mario 64 (Round 4)
27. Pokemon Red/Blue (Round 3) (TIE)
28. Zelda: Twilight Princess (Round 4) (TIE)
29. Chrono Trigger (Round 3)
30. Zelda: A Link to the Past (Round 5)
31. Kingdom Hearts (Round 3)
32. Resident Evil 4 (Round 4)
33. Pokemon Red/Blue (Round 4)
34. Metal Gear Solid (Round 3)
35. Oblivion (Round 3)
36. Fallout 3 (Round 3)
37. Final Fantasy IV (Round 3)
38. Final Fantasy VIII (Round 3)
39. Diablo II (Round 3)
40. Call of Duty 4 (Round 3)
41. Super Mario World (Round 5)
42. Super Metroid (Round 3)
43. GoldenEye (Round 3)
44. Super Smash Bros. Melee (Round 4)
45. Tetris (Round 3)
46. Super Mario Bros. 3 (Round 5)
47. Final Fantasy VI (Round 4)
48. Sonic the Hedgehog (Round 3)
49. Mega Man 2 (Round 3)
50. Zelda: Link’s Awakening (Round 3)
51. Super Mario Bros. (Round 4)

I must have things misnumbered, because there should be 52, not 51. Help in correcting this would be appreciated.
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 6/7/2009 12:36:04 AM | message detail
FFX takes the lead back.
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Xcarvenger | Posted 6/7/2009 12:36:45 AM | message detail
lead changeeeeeee
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Xcarvenger | Posted 6/7/2009 12:42:19 AM | message detail
and again
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 12:42:23 AM | message detail
and mgs4 takes it back!
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/356/484cc4215cae81cbd2ed258c3dbbfadc0b899894.gif
vcharon | Posted 6/7/2009 12:44:36 AM | message detail
LoZ vs. Final Fantasy confirmed for the finals.
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:>
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 12:44:38 AM | message detail
seems the ffx stuffers thought they could get lax
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/356/484cc4215cae81cbd2ed258c3dbbfadc0b899894.gif
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/7/2009 12:47:22 AM | message detail
Ugh, FFX needs to put together a string of nice updates. Nobody wants to see this stalling at zero garbage.

Anyway, while this is the "fairest" finals situation we could have hoped for, I still figure things look better for FFVII (because it's hard to imagine LttP being hurt as badly as FFX, what with being a bit stronger and the lone game from the 2D era and all). However, I think it'll be tight, and the reason has to do with combined percentage splits. It's not unreasonable to think that combined, OoT + LttP are a bit stronger than the Final Fantasies (I'm assuming many, if not most people here might already think this). If that's true, it gives Ocarina a good chance. If the two series do go 50/50, then it is very hard to picture an Ocarina win, but a slight lean toward the Zelda side of things (nothing big, say... 52/48), and it becomes a different ballgame. In such a scenario, OoT doesn't need to SFF it's weaker brother nearly as bad as FFVII will need to hurt X.

Consider...

FFVII - 38%
FFX - 10%
OoT - 37%
LttP - 15%

In that scenario, Ocarina of Time has 71% relative to LttP, whereas Final Fantasy V has 79% relative to X, and yet, the two big guys are very competitive.

don't mind me just thinking aloud
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
ZFS | Posted 6/7/2009 12:50:06 AM | message detail
Don't worry -- the finals aren't going to be that close !

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 12:59:12 AM | message detail
http://www.cookingfor.us/catalog/images/stuffing.jpg

mmm stuffing
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vcharon | Posted 6/7/2009 1:03:39 AM | message detail
I always take a nice glass of whine with my stuffing.
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:>
Flame_Hazard | Posted 6/7/2009 1:07:29 AM | message detail
heh, I actually support OoT winning, and have never even played ffx, but I'm gonna vote for FFX because I want to see it advance for the 2 zelda 2 FF match >.>
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 1:19:57 AM | message detail
Geez so much for FFX's overwhelming night vote advantage
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Janus5000 | Posted 6/7/2009 1:20:20 AM | message detail
Huh, this is actually close right now. MGS4 winning the day vote would be very weird, though. =/
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 1:21:36 AM | message detail
seems in the dead hours they might just keep on trading the lead!

till one side gets tired of stuffing and goes to bed at least
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Janus5000 | Posted 6/7/2009 1:28:14 AM | message detail
Snake fans don't stop stuffing. Nor do they sleep.
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
Denzokuken | Posted 6/7/2009 1:29:39 AM | message detail
I thought FFX was meant to be blowing MGS4 out of the match during these hours. I think MGS4 still has a chance.
Calintares | Posted 6/7/2009 1:32:21 AM | message detail
Remember that special rules apply for the Finals, If there is any time to take tactical voting into consideration, it is then.

LttP is not going to hold up as good in the finals as it has in any "favorite Zelda game" poll.
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.
voltch | Posted 6/7/2009 1:35:24 AM | message detail
wait,2 FFs and 2 Zeldas was the cookie final?
i reckoned RE4 or MGS4 would have had big support.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/7/2009 1:38:23 AM | message detail
RE4 and MGS4 both had good support for the semis, not the finals. Neither are proven, so most people were wary of taking them over FFX, a game we still figured was near Melee levels.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 6/7/2009 1:41:59 AM | message detail
http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php

FF7 and OoT were locks.
aLttP was a solid favorite and SMB3 got some support.
FFX didn't quite get 50% support and the result of the support was pretty scattered. MGS4 was second highest with not even 20% support.
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2009 2:04:19 AM | message detail
MGS4/FFX by the hour:

Time
1:00 | 50.80%
2:00 | 51.24%
3:00 | 49.10%
4:00 | 47.81%
5:00 | 47.78%

MGS4 lost the last 3 hours, but FFX could only barely increase with the last hour. This next hour (5:00-6:00 AM) should be FFX's best hour. At this rate, FFX probably won't even have a 500 vote lead before 8:00 AM when the ASV starts to kick in on weekends.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
The Real Truth | Posted 6/7/2009 2:36:10 AM | message detail
Oh hey FFX is in second now and Brawl is ridiculously far behind.
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voltch | Posted 6/7/2009 3:31:21 AM | message detail
oh,well i had those 4 in the finals anyway,first 3 seemed obvious enough,however I switched quite a bit before settling on X.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
xp1337 | Posted 6/7/2009 3:36:42 AM | message detail
So, what is the consensus on the rest of the voting blocks? It's a weekend so no ASV to speak of, but is MGS4 expected to win the day? Is it expected to just be even? Or does FFX still have those blocks?

Because if it's either of the first two, I'm feeling really uneasy about this. If it's the latter, than obviously FFX should be fine.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 3:38:13 AM | message detail
Seems like a total crap shoot to me. My knee jerk reaction is a day long stall
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/7/2009 3:41:31 AM | message detail
Yeah well, here's another question; what was youre least favorite part of the contest? I'd have to go with the Smash games and Twilight Princess beating some games that they didn't deserve to get close to in some cases. At least we'll get a deserving contest winner (yes Final Fantasy VII is very deserving of contest champ, even if I'm getting bored of it)!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2009 4:05:09 AM | message detail
MGS4/FFX by the hour:

Time
1:00 | 50.80%
2:00 | 51.24%
3:00 | 49.10%
4:00 | 47.81%
5:00 | 47.78%
6:00 | 46.52%
7:00 | 45.27%


Hopefully that last hour ends up being FFX's strongest hour and it drops off from here, with the ASV starting in an hour from now. The 5:00-6:00 PM hour ended up not being FFX's strongest hour this time around.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 4:07:29 AM | message detail
It's hard to imagine a night oriented game pulling much more than a 5% swing on another night vote oriented game. At the least I don't think we'll see MGS4 run away with a decisive day vote victory
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
AmazingKirby | Posted 6/7/2009 4:31:11 AM | message detail
Saying the ASV starts at 8am on weekends is absurd. There is no ASV. There is no school.
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caps
goku z | Posted 6/7/2009 4:39:49 AM | message detail
zomg, 4 vote gain for MGS4 that update! Only 10 hours until MGS4 leads at this rate. >.>
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Being kind is more important than being right.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2009 4:49:07 AM | message detail
Saying the ASV starts at 8am on weekends is absurd. There is no ASV. There is no school.

With weekend matches, a lot of the votes that would have been submitted during the true ASV time period (2:30 PM to 10:00 PM) would be submitted a lot earlier than that, like in the morning. 8:00 AM is around the time I notice ASV games kicking up their performance a notch and doing better. This should prove that the ASV for weekend matches starts around 8:00 AM:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3500&num=4

TP was dropping in percentage until around 8:00 AM, where it started going up in percentage again (since it's a game with a good ASV). It was also around 8:00 AM that RE4 was stalling MGS3, but it wasn't really until around 10:00 AM where it was being consistent and getting in multiple cuts in a row on MGS3.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 4:50:41 AM | message detail
I think the point is calling it ASV when it has nothing to do with school is stupid
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2009 4:55:34 AM | message detail
I think the point is calling it ASV when it has nothing to do with school is stupid

Well, the voting blocks that have been designated so far (EBV/PHV/FNV/BSV/DSV/ASV/SNV) aren't going to be modified in any way, since that's about the best system that has been developed so far regarding voting blocks. We aren't going to change BSV, DSV, and ASV to something different (for the voting block trend charts) for the matches that occur on weekends/holidays.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2009 5:14:48 AM | message detail
First time FFX has gone down in percentage in like 4 hours now. Hopefully MGS4 starts getting in more cuts soon. Last hour, MGS4 got 46.74% on FFX. An improvement from the hour before that one, where it had 45.27% on FFX.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
CP724 | Posted 6/7/2009 5:29:00 AM | message detail
MGS4 was done a long time ago.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 5:31:52 AM | message detail
If MGS4 can turn this around that would definitely be quite a feat. Not something you'd normally expect. MGS coming back with the day vote, lol
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
charmander6000 | Posted 6/7/2009 5:40:28 AM | message detail
FFX looks good now. Also right now MGS4 is doing better on OoT than MGS, this could change throughout the day though.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 387/576