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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 746

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/6/2009 10:19:58 PM | message detail
You also have to remember that, while FF7's competition was stronger, it was 3 Nintendo games vs FF7, and 2 of them were Mario titles. If it was FFX advancing, I'd say OoT had an outside chance. Now, I highly doubt it.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/6/2009 10:20:15 PM | message detail
It is a fine performance however if we give FFVII and OoT their 2004 values (aka 53.5% on OoT for FFVII)
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/6/2009 10:21:07 PM | message detail
Top 8 probably matters a lot more than top 10, strengthwise. Being top 8 puts you a fair distance from the pack, while there's a whole mob of games clustered together from #9 to #20, and maybe after that too.
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Lopen | Posted 6/6/2009 10:22:07 PM | message detail
Still liking FFX here. Remembering MGS's earlier contests Snake was pretty frontloaded in the end by the Anti "THE MAN" contingent. I think FFX is going to take this pretty comfortably.
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hochiminhX | Posted 6/6/2009 10:22:54 PM | message detail
Top 8 are


FFVII


OoT

LTTP
SMW
SMB3
SM64
SSBM
CT



None of today's games are in the top 8.


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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/6/2009 10:23:02 PM | message detail
I'm liking FFX here, but I think it should be a close match most of the day.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/6/2009 10:23:08 PM | message detail
FFX is absolutely going to take this, it's been over for like an hour already. (Hopefully I don't look like a complete idiot tomorrow.)
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Yesmar | Posted 6/6/2009 10:23:12 PM | message detail
Damn, OoT and FFVII are absolute monsters. Even back in '04, LttP, SMB3, CT, and Melee probably all would have broken 40% on OoT indirectly, and FFVI probably would have as well assuming the poll position was lowered. Now there's nothing.

I would like to say that it *is* possible for another game to approach their tier in the future, but it's going to take awhile. Don't be fooled by comparing this year to '04. These games *will* drop over time, it's just that the average GameFAQer is now most likely to have grown up with a PS or N64 as their first system, so that has cancelled out a lot of the aging. They will drop, in 6 or 7 years time probably, but they're too far ahead right now for anything else to catch up from the next gen. And this current gen is so weird from a GameFAQS standard (Wii is the most owned system, but X360 is the "gamer's" system, but it doesn't make games that are typical GameFAQS games) that it is unlikely anything will be able to come close in the future.
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hochiminhX | Posted 6/6/2009 10:23:26 PM | message detail
Correction, RBY is in the Top 8, not SSBM. SSBM is kind of pathetic now.

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I will bury you.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/6/2009 10:23:27 PM | message detail

From: hochiminhX | #055
Top 8 are


FFVII


OoT

LTTP
SMW
SMB3
SM64
SSBB
CT


Fixed it for you.
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 6/6/2009 10:23:40 PM | message detail
You need a bunch more spaces between OoT and LTTP.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/6/2009 10:25:19 PM | message detail
Yup. LTTP, SM64, CT, RBY, SMW, and SMB3. The stats topic is coming around to this tier 2!
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MnMZero | Posted 6/6/2009 10:26:09 PM | message detail
Come on MGS4, there is prize money involved!!!!!!!!!!
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transience | Posted 6/6/2009 10:26:35 PM | message detail
Brawl looks good for tier 2. it might end up closer to FFX than RBY did.
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xyzzy
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hochiminhX | Posted 6/6/2009 10:28:36 PM | message detail
Brawl lost to MGS4 yesterday. That ruined its chances of getting into Tier 2. It can upper level Tier 3 though along with FFX and MGS4.


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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/6/2009 10:30:20 PM | message detail
Yeah, Brawl is definitely tier 2. Don't think anyone who counts can really argue that.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/6/2009 10:31:29 PM | message detail
RBY had a third Nintendo game in the poll instead of an MGS game. I'm not entirely sure about whether SMW/SMB3 deserve to be in this tier though- we haven't had any good looks at them against games made after 1991. The first 4 rounds suggests that the LFF between them is pretty minimal, in which case getting 60/40'd by LTTP looks pretty embarassing. They get the benefit of the doubt for now, I guess (and I also think it's probable that adding FFVII to the poll increases the LFF between them.....they'll get much fewer "universal" votes with FFVII in there, have split harder the actual Mario fanbase).
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/6/2009 10:31:54 PM | message detail

From: hochiminhX | #065
Brawl lost to MGS4 yesterday. That ruined its chances of getting into Tier 2. It can upper level Tier 3 though along with FFX and MGS4.


While also being LFF'd by the other major Wii title.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/6/2009 10:32:04 PM | message detail
Brawl is doing better on OoT than R/B/Y did. You can't have R/B/Y in the top 10 and not Brawl.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/6/2009 10:32:10 PM | message detail
If a game that 58-42s a game that is even with FFX isn't tier 2 I don't know what is
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Lucid Faia | Posted 6/6/2009 10:32:34 PM | message detail
I think you guys are overrating the upper half of the bracket somewhat. I'd take Brawl to beat SMW without a second's hesitation.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/6/2009 10:33:15 PM | message detail
I wouldn't go that fa...

Oh, Lucid Faia, right.
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1
hochiminhX | Posted 6/6/2009 10:36:09 PM | message detail
What percentage does FFVII and OoT combined get tomorrow? I'm thinking around 80%.


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I will bury you.
transience | Posted 6/6/2009 10:36:44 PM | message detail
I'd take Brawl and Melee over a lot of the so-called tier 2 games just because I don't believe in old games being worth all that much. red sox and I are polar opposites here, and the one match where we could settle it is going to be so screwed up so there's no resolution.

here comes the night vote. if MGS4 starts increasing big I'll be worried. if it stalls, FFX got dis.
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xyzzy
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/6/2009 10:37:27 PM | message detail
Brawl is doing better on OoT than R/B/Y did. You can't have R/B/Y in the top 10 and not Brawl.

Um, Brawl is doing a good deal worse than either of RBY's performances. Extrapolating through OOT gives Brawl like 46% on RBY using RBY's weaker performance, and not even 43% using the stronger.

If a game that 58-42s a game that is even with FFX isn't tier 2 I don't know what is

Well, when you put it that way.....

But I think that match was pretty clearly an overperformance and not really indicative of the true strength gap between Brawl and MGS4. We saw TP in a similar scenario improve a ton on RE4 from the previous round. FFX also is going to put a fair margin between itself and MGS4 by the end. Also, FFX isn't that strong(!!!).
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Lucid Faia | Posted 6/6/2009 10:39:36 PM | message detail
I'd take Brawl and Melee over a lot of the so-called tier 2 games just because I don't believe in old games being worth all that much.

Agreed.

Oh, Lucid Faia, right.

How much prize money have you won from these contests?

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/6/2009 10:41:05 PM | message detail
Yeah, FFX wins this. MGS4 needs to be making big gains now if it wanted a chance.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/6/2009 10:41:32 PM | message detail
I think you guys are overrating the upper half of the bracket somewhat. I'd take Brawl to beat SMW without a second's hesitation.

If that's true, FFVII may be in some trouble tomorrow.....or would be if OOT can kill LTTP really good with the SFF, anyway.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/6/2009 10:42:44 PM | message detail
It's like there's 40% that like OoT no matter what and 40% that like FF7 no matter what. The finals will be 40/40/12/8 >_>
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Lopen | Posted 6/6/2009 10:43:19 PM | message detail
How much prize money have you won from these contests?

I love when people cite this to make their arguments more credible. Any time people say this, they should point out Lopen got top 10 in 2007, then link to this

http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=162

I encourage you!
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transience | Posted 6/6/2009 10:44:45 PM | message detail
2007 is totally screwed up. a goddamn tetris piece won it. that's the exception!
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xyzzy
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Lucid Faia | Posted 6/6/2009 10:45:42 PM | message detail
Heh. I just like being a dick to Turtle. He has some grudge against me from like, six years ago, so he tries to bug me every chance he gets.

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Lopen | Posted 6/6/2009 10:45:43 PM | message detail
Pfft. I had the Tetris piece losing to Laharl and did well in spite of that!
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/6/2009 10:48:57 PM | message detail
red sox and I are polar opposites here, and the one match where we could settle it is going to be so screwed up so there's no resolution.

Comparing how LTTP and FFX do against FFVII and OOT, and then how FFVII and OOT do against each other, more or less would give me a satisfactory resolution. Of course there's problems with 4-ways and non-linearity and all that stuff, but considering the format, it could be a lot worse.

And I don't really think the older games are way stronger than the new ones. The average PS2/GC/Xbox era game is probably stronger than the average SNES game, but the variance is also higher among the old games, so the top games there can beat the top modern games. Really though, the 32/64 generation just stands out as the #1 generation BY FAR.
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KingBartz | Posted 6/6/2009 10:59:09 PM | message detail
MGS4 is impressing here, I think. I don't think it was expected to ever have a lead over FFX, outside of the power hour.
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xp1337 | Posted 6/6/2009 11:01:21 PM | message detail
6 straight percentage gains for OoT.

Zelda Night Vote confirmed.
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SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
red sox 777 | Posted 6/6/2009 11:02:35 PM | message detail
OOT Night Vote! Beat them down, Ocarina! Show these modern games how weak they are!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/6/2009 11:11:06 PM | message detail
now thats what I call an update
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MnMZero | Posted 6/6/2009 11:11:30 PM | message detail
MGS4 is playing with my emotions... :(
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/6/2009 11:17:25 PM | message detail
Brawl is really dying right now. MGS4 is holding up pretty well though- it's still early in the night though- FFX should start ripping it apart in a couple hours.
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KingBartz | Posted 6/6/2009 11:18:44 PM | message detail
I knew I should have picked MGS4 over RE4... how tragic. I could be leaderboard material right now.
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MnMZero | Posted 6/6/2009 11:20:40 PM | message detail
Screw just leaderboard. I want prize money. There have been too many contests where I've been like 1 point out. :(
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transience | Posted 6/6/2009 11:21:55 PM | message detail
MGS4 should be good for a couple hours. FFX looks good to tear it apart in the morning, but I want to see it before I believe it.
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xyzzy
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transience | Posted 6/6/2009 11:23:30 PM | message detail
oh, and I prooooooobably don't win prizes if FFX wins, but I could, so die MGS4! screw mnm
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xyzzy
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masseffect90 | Posted 6/6/2009 11:23:32 PM | message detail
How far did Melee get behind FFX in 2004?
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/6/2009 11:26:11 PM | message detail
FFX should start ripping it apart in a couple hours.

The 5:00-6:00 AM hour was the strongest hour for FFX last round. I'm thinking FFX should start picking up next hour and continue increasing until 6:00 AM.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/6/2009 11:31:27 PM | message detail
3 straight cuts for ffx
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goku z | Posted 6/6/2009 11:33:27 PM | message detail
MGS4 clearly leaves a great impression - PS3 owners are the only people who've played it, so to be this strong....

I submit that MGS4 would be a good 3-5% weaker if not for the best surprise of all time ever after the credits rolled.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/6/2009 11:33:36 PM | message detail
But 2 of them were very small cuts. The last one was a rather big one. A few more of those, and it'll take the lead overnight easily.
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goku z | Posted 6/6/2009 11:36:41 PM | message detail
In fact, I explain MGS4 being the strongest Metal Gear game with BBF - Big Boss Factor. Of course, BBF doesn't work as well for MGS3 because there's no Solid.
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