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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 746

hochiminhX | Posted 6/7/2009 8:04:51 PM | message detail
Honestly, OoT needs a 1000 vote lead at the freeze.
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I will bury you.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2009 8:05:04 PM | message detail
Zelda had 57% at the five minute mark.

Ugh, you brought that up before I could even make my post.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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PiGuy96 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:05:05 PM | message detail
Yeah, FFVII needs to be in the lead by 2 if it's going to win. It should absolutely obliterate the dead zone, but if it can't build a good lead in the first night vote as well it's going to get creamed in the ASV.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 8:05:56 PM | message detail
Yeah, OoT leading by 100 at the freeze would be nothing. With the amount of votes they're playing with, that would only equate to less than a 55-45 lead. In FF7's first round against LttP, it actually was at less than 55% against LttP, and of course, ended up at over 63%. FF7 can probably afford to be nearly 150 down at the freeze and still have a chance to come back
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 8:06:09 PM | message detail
http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/board8/images/a/ae/Graph1780.png
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/356/484cc4215cae81cbd2ed258c3dbbfadc0b899894.gif
red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:06:13 PM | message detail
FFVII and OOT have both consistently finished about 1% above where they are at 4 AM. The thing is that FFVII, despite its bad day vote, never goes back down to the percentage intake it gets early in the match.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/7/2009 8:06:16 PM | message detail

From: hochiminhX | #451
Honestly, OoT needs a 1000 vote lead at the freeze.


Ugh, don't even remind me of that 2007 final.
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ZFS | Posted 6/7/2009 8:06:51 PM | message detail
FFVII should take the lead well before the 3AM, 4AM time. I think it'll start cutting OoT's lead toward the end of the Power Hour, and just wreck it overnight. All about what OoT does in the day, but it might not even be all that close. I think FFVII's going to win this with a few thousand votes to spare.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 8:09:09 PM | message detail
Not so bold prediction

FFVII takes the lead at Midnight.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 6/7/2009 8:14:57 PM | message detail
So what are the chances everyone suddenly has good taste and FFX beats FFVII?
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caps
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/7/2009 8:16:14 PM | message detail

From: AmazingKirby | #460
So what are the chances everyone suddenly has good taste and FFX beats FFVII?


lol
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MetricTrout | Posted 6/7/2009 8:17:31 PM | message detail
What does each game need to do in the Power Hour in order to win?

FF7:

Round 1 Power Hour: 51.02%
Round 1 total: 55.05%
% difference: 107.9%

Round 2 Power Hour: 42.48%
Round 2 total: 47.30%
% difference: 111.3%

Round 3 Power Hour: 36.86%
Round 3 total: 41.25%
% difference: 111.9%

Round 4 Power Hour: 36.80%
Round 4 total: 40.06%
% difference: 108.9%

Round 5 Power Hour: 41.73%
Round 5 total: 44.77%
% difference: 107.3%

Mean % difference: 109.5%

OoT:

Round 1 Power Hour: 52.94%
Round 1 total: 53.79%
% difference: 101.6%

Round 2 Power Hour: 48.43%
Round 2 total: 49.36%
% difference: 101.9%

Round 3 Power Hour: 39.12%
Round 3 total: 38.70%
% difference: 98.9%

Round 4 Power Hour: 40.29%
Round 4 total: 40.76%
% difference: 101.2%

Round 5 Power Hour: 40.37%
Round 5 total: 41.00%
% difference: 101.6%

Mean % difference: 101.0%

So FF7 should rise 109.5/101.0 = 108.4% relative to OoT after the Power Hour. Which means that OoT needs to hold FF7 down to 46.1% of its total percentage at the end of the Power Hour.
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Agent M | Posted 6/7/2009 8:19:13 PM | message detail
So Bacon used every picture I correctly submitted, even if it was a rushed and kinda half-assed.

But I put in more effort into the finals, and he opted to leave it out (while only choosing 4 pics anyways).

Is it honestly that bad?

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/6786/finalsbge2k9.png

The ones that were used look like character battle pics except the sword one.
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Signature
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2009 8:28:49 PM | message detail
Yeah, OoT leading by 100 at the freeze would be nothing. With the amount of votes they're playing with, that would only equate to less than a 55-45 lead.

The highest vote totals at the freeze for this contest was 1699. Assuming the final got like 1800 votes at the freeze and OoT led by 100, the results might look like this:

Final Fantasy VII 34.50% 621
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 14.00% 252
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 40.50% 729
Final Fantasy X 11.00% 198

With a 108 vote lead for OoT, that sets OoT at 54% on FFVII. Hard for me to predict what the results might look like at the freeze, so I went with FFX a little low since it'll probably rise after the freeze and rise overnight. LTTP a little high since it'll probably finish the match lower than what it had at the freeze/power hour.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/7/2009 8:32:55 PM | message detail

From: Agent M | Posted: 6/7/2009 11:19:13 PM | #463
So Bacon used every picture I correctly submitted, even if it was a rushed and kinda half-assed.

But I put in more effort into the finals, and he opted to leave it out (while only choosing 4 pics anyways).

Is it honestly that bad?

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/6786/finalsbge2k9.png

The ones that were used look like character battle pics except the sword one.


I have to squint to tell what's going on, and that's generally bad.

But it's not a terrible pic at all. I dunno why he left it out. Might as well have 5. Couldn't hurt.
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transience | Posted 6/7/2009 8:37:47 PM | message detail
I think FF7 goes equal with OOT in the power hour and we laugh at OOT's weakness.

but I don't think FF7 takes off after that -- I think it wins comfortably but not with huge exaggerated trends like it usually has.
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/7/2009 8:40:50 PM | message detail
I predict FF7 wins by about the same margin LttP beats FFX leaving people to wonder whether or not 1v1 would change the result, only to have no bonus match to see
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
BDawg | Posted 6/7/2009 8:41:54 PM | message detail
This thread needs to get used up before showtime. Anyway, I think I'll just throw my vote away to LttP just because I don't even care anymore.
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Should I start running now?
red sox 777 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:44:48 PM | message detail
First real Link/Cloud confrontation in 3 years! Let's do this FFVII. Nintendo, your reign of domination is over!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2009 8:45:12 PM | message detail
Getting 30 posts in like 15 minutes won't be happening.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Meeks54 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:45:56 PM | message detail
Lets get this party started.

I'll Never forgive Sephiroth
VS.
.......
VS.
.......
Vs.
This is my Story.


Go.
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Meeks54 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:46:19 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #469
First real Link/Cloud confrontation in 3 years! Let's do this FFVII. Nintendo, your reign of domination is over!




And I demand a match fan fic.
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
charmander6000 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:46:57 PM | message detail
OoT with a lead at the freeze then FFVII leads for the rest of the match.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 387/576
ZFS | Posted 6/7/2009 8:47:17 PM | message detail
.......
VS.
.......


Says it all
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 8:48:35 PM | message detail

FFX's current percentage on OOT with Brawl in the poll: 34.55%
LTTP's percentage on FFVII yesterday with 2 Marios in the poll: 34.56%

Mission accomplished, OOT!


FFX's current percentage: 34.57%

owned
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"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Meeks54 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:49:05 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #474
.......
VS.
.......


Says it all




Yeah, 2 of the 4 best games ever, and the one of the best characters in existence.
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
hochiminhX | Posted 6/7/2009 8:49:33 PM | message detail
Who are each of the league of excellence members voting for?


Hochi - FFVII

Ulti - FFVII (I think)
ZFS - FFVII
Leonhart - FFVII
Harrich - ???
Kleenex - ???
Karma Hunter - FFVII (I think)
Yoblazer - OoT
Black Turtle - ???
Nintendogirl - ???
Lopen - ???



Well, I see a pattern here.
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I will bury you.
Meeks54 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:49:52 PM | message detail
Next up.

Buster Sword
Vs.
Master Sword
VS.
Master Sword
Vs.
Brotherhood.
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
Meeks54 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:51:06 PM | message detail
Midgar
Vs.
Hyrule
Vs
Kokori Forest
Vs.
Zanarkand

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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2009 8:51:17 PM | message detail
I hope for as fair of a match as possible with FF7 winning in a close one, though I do love LoZ:OoT and enjoyed LoZ:LttP. I imagine the results will be pretty similar, but I'm cool for seeing LoZ:OoT be the top dog here too if that happens.

Congrats to all four games though, and hopefully we can settle this now that it's been five years in the making!
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BT > Harrich
lol me
MetricTrout | Posted 6/7/2009 8:52:07 PM | message detail
It looks like both games have a pretty static fanbase. Neither game has dipped much in votals after the first 1 or 2 rounds. SFF games in parentheses:

FF7:

Round 1:70086 (Suikoden)
Round 2: 56012 (SMRPG)
Round 3: 55076 (Chrono Trigger)
Round 4: 52030 (FF6)
Round 5: 54501 (Minimal SFF)

OoT

Round 1: 72119 (Minimal SFF)
Round 2: 64854 (Minimal SFF)
Round 3: 49944 (Pokemon)
Round 4: 53216 (Pokemon + Melee)
Round 5: 53355+ (Brawl)

Wonder what happened to OoT in Round 3.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2009 8:52:30 PM | message detail
I'll be voting FF7, Hoch.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
nintendogirl1 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:52:38 PM | message detail
Going OoT today, oh Hochi.

I apologize for abusing your faith in me. Bracket says FFVII though.
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:/
transience | Posted 6/7/2009 8:53:24 PM | message detail
let's end this contest in style
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
ZFS | Posted 6/7/2009 8:53:36 PM | message detail
Let's do this FFVII

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There ain't no gettin' offa this train we're on
Meeks54 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:53:59 PM | message detail

From: transience | #484
let's end this contest in style




With OoT winning.
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
charmander6000 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:54:18 PM | message detail
LttP in second for a few seconds

>_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 387/576
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/7/2009 8:54:25 PM | message detail
Time for neither OoT or FF7 to advance


Come on FFX>LTTP

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transience | Posted 6/7/2009 8:54:43 PM | message detail
LTTP- 4%
FFX - 4%
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
MetricTrout | Posted 6/7/2009 8:55:06 PM | message detail
5 minutes until it begins.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2009 8:55:15 PM | message detail
In style means FFX > FFVII >> Who cares
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Meeks54 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:55:16 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2009 8:55:27 PM | message detail
Link > Cloud
Master Sword > Buster Sword
FF7 > LoZ:OoT
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BT > Harrich
lol me
ExThaNemesis | Posted 6/7/2009 8:55:40 PM | message detail
"Quite possibly the best game ever made."

Let's do this.
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2 down, 2 to go
RockMFR 5 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:55:48 PM | message detail
LTTP rSFFs OoT in the greatest result ever
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Gaddswell | Posted 6/7/2009 8:55:53 PM | message detail
Zolom vs Tingle time
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/7/2009 8:56:00 PM | message detail
Pumped for this. Two incredible games. One winner.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
General_Zimbad | Posted 6/7/2009 8:56:15 PM | message detail
OMG OMG!!!!!!!!!
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ZFS | Posted 6/7/2009 8:56:21 PM | message detail
Play Final Fantasy VII

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Janus5000 | Posted 6/7/2009 8:56:21 PM | message detail
Go FFX!
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