GameFAQs Contests

The second set of stats looks all sorts of messed up. There's no way Brawl beats those games that badly.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Why do those stats have SMG so far ahead of CoD4?

It's either that or have Diamond/Pearl ahead of Galaxy. CoD4 just did like crap against Brawl in round 3.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

From: HaRRicH | Posted: 6/6/2009 1:04:28 PM | #073
Alright, so I'm going to send a PotD-suggestion to SB about rerunning some of the old favorites-polls and making some new ones, and I wanted to get some opinions before I send it in. I'm thinking the following would be good to start with for redoing...

Best Nintendo series (and update the options for more relevant series): http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=525
Best SMB game: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1181
Best LoZ game: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1225
Best FF game: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1573
Best RE game: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1179

...and as for new favorites-polls, how about these?
Best MG(S) game?
Best Mario Kart game?
Best SSB game?
Best Halo game?
Best Valve game?
Best Blizzard game?
Best new series from the past ten years?


Any thoughts on what else to add?

I've tried this with no luck, but I'm all for someone keeping at him. I'd love a rerun of favorites polls.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

And blame MGS4 for the mess of those stats!

Probably because it was hampered the round before too. Pokemon probably did more damage to it than Melee simply because it held up so much better.

So Pokemon by itself hinders OoT more than Pokemon + Melee? Uhhhh...
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

So Pokemon by itself hinders OoT more than Pokemon + Melee? Uhhhh...

Of course not, I'm saying Pokemon hinders OOT more than Triple SFF'd Melee, not Melee + Pokemon. The point is that there was LFF in the previous match too, and more in FFX's.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Why does OoT do better if it's getting LFF'd to a greater degree? I'm not getting that.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Obviously because FFX was weaker than we expected.

Look, most of us expected FFX/SSBM/RBY to be tougher competition for OOT than MGS/FFVIII/RBY. We were wrong. That suggests something, and it isn't that OOT was being LFF'd less with one more Nintendo game in the poll.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

It suggests SSBM got SFF'd greater than we expected. It would've easily lost to FFVIII or MGS, too.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

True, but even so, FFX looks to be about even with MGS or a tad lower. FFX had a perfect opportunity to do well on OOT there; instead, it more or less equaled what Pokemon put up on OOT the round before. Had Pokemon been bandwagoned or just maintained its proportion to OOT from round 3, FFX could have lost.

What are you expecting FFX to get on OOT tomorrow, with Brawl and MGS4 in the poll (probably a slight advantage for FFX, unless OOT kills Brawl worse than it killed Melee)? Will it even outdo what LTTP is getting on FFVII today with 2 Nintendo games in the poll?
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

It has every reason to outdo what LTTP is getting here. It's unhindered.

instead, it more or less equaled what Pokemon put up on OOT the round before.

Then why did Pokemon do 3% worse itself? A stronger OoT, maybe?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

FFX looks to be about even with MGS or a tad lower.

uhh
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

Oh, and here's some preliminary final stats, assuming Melee = Brawl. Be forewarned: These stats suck. I don't really like a lot of what it gives us, but here we go!

1. Final Fantasy VII – 50.00%
1. Ocarina of Time – 50.00%
3. Super Smash Bros. Melee – 37.28%
3. Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 37.28%
5. Final Fantasy X – 36.93%
6. Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow – 36.90%
7. A Link to the Past – 36.61%
8. Super Mario 64 – 36.42%
9. Super Mario World – 36.00%
10. Chrono Trigger – 35.36%
11. Metal Gear Solid – 35.11%
12. Super Mario Bros. 3 – 34.82%
13. Kingdom Hearts (Round 2) – 34.60%
14. Final Fantasy VI – 33.34%
Kingdom Hearts (Round 3) – 33.17%
15. GoldenEye 007 – 33.03%
16. Super Mario Bros. (Round 2) – 32.94%
17. Pokemon Gold/Silver – 32.57%
18. Final Fantasy VIII – 31.41%
19. Metal Gear Solid 4 – 31.34%
20. Super Mario RPG – 30.94%
Super Mario Bros. (Round 3) – 30.84%
21. Link’s Awakening – 30.60%
22. The Legend of Zelda – 30.10%
23. Mario Kart 64 – 29.98%
24. Twilight Princess – 29.05%
25. Final Fantasy IX – 28.40%
Resident Evil 4 – 28.15%
Final Fantasy – 28.13%
Metal Gear Solid 3 – 27.96%
Metal Gear Solid 2 – 27.87%
Kingdom Hearts II – 27.74%
Majora’s Mask – 27.47%
Final Fantasy IV – 26.86%
Vice City – 26.71%
Final Fantasy Tactics – 26.57%
Fallout 3 – 26.53%
The Wind Waker – 25.91%
Resident Evil 2 – 25.81%
Mega Man X – 25.39%
Diablo II – 25.37%
Metroid Prime – 25.34%
Super Mario Galaxy – 25.26%
StarCraft – 25.20%
Halo – 24.63%
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion – 24.60%
Knights of the Old Republic – 24.02%
Tales of Symphonia – 23.75%
Symphony of the Night – 23.72%
God of War – 23.65%
World of Warcraft – 23.37%
Call of Duty 4 – 23.11%
Portal – 23.11%
San Andreas – 22.93%
Grand Theft Auto IV – 22.70%
Half-Life 2 – 22.70%
Grand Theft Auto III – 22.65%
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – 22.63%
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl – 22.54%
BioShock – 22.08%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 22.07%
Resident Evil – 22.07%
Mega Man 3 – 22.06%
Super Metroid – 22.01%
Super Mario Kart – 21.96%
Final Fantasy XII – 21.89%
Halo 3 – 21.88%
Halo 2 – 21.32%
Half-Life – 21.30%
Tetris – 20.93%
Star Fox 64 – 20.86%
Yoshi’s Island – 20.25%
Mortal Kombat II – 20.21%
Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind – 20.13%
Shadow of the Colossus – 19.66%
Street Fighter II – 19.63%
Okami – 19.45%
Mega Man 2 – 18.96%
The Secret of Mana – 18.61%
Left 4 Dead – 18.45%
Paper Mario – 18.39%
Donkey Kong Country – 17.76%
Disgaea – 17.71%
Doom – 17.40%
Street Fighter IV – 16.51%
Persona 4 – 16.50%
Gears of War – 16.25%
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 – 16.25%
Chrono Cross – 16.10%
Battletoads – 16.02%
SoulCalibur – 16.01%
Mass Effect – 14.92%
Earthbound – 14.79%
Team Fortress 2 – 14.61%
Metroid – 14.56%
The Oregon Trail – 14.29%
Perfect Dark – 14.22%
Xenogears – 13.91%
Kirby Super Star – 13.85%
Fire Emblem – 13.63%
Donkey Kong Country 2 – 13.50%
LittleBigPlanet – 13.18%
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney – 13.12%
Silent Hill 2 – 12.14%
Pac-Man – 12.11%
Pong – 12.08%
Deus Ex – 11.97%
Donkey Kong – 11.30%
Banjo-Kazooie – 11.15%
Suikoden – 11.10%
Contra – 10.72%
Punch-Out!! – 10.47%
Ninja Gaiden – 10.45%
Streets of Rage II – 9.33%
Duck Hunt – 9.01%
River City Ransom – 8.90%
Civilization – 8.41%
The Secret of Monkey Island – 7.92%
Castlevania III – 7.82%
SimCity – 7.28%
Dragon Warrior III – 6.73%
Shining Force II – 6.71%
Phantasy Star IV – 6.01%
Space Invaders – 5.82%
Galaga – 5.63%
Gunstar Heroes – 5.17%
The Prince of Persia – 5.05%
Lufia II – 4.76%
Tecmo Super Bowl – 4.76%
Crystalis – 3.93%
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

By the way, I used two numbers for KH and Mario 1, their round two and round three numbers. Which looks better?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

18. Final Fantasy VIII – 31.41%
19. Metal Gear Solid 4 – 31.34%

do i sense personal bias
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

Then why did Pokemon do 3% worse itself? A stronger OoT, maybe?

Who knows why Pokemon did worse. It could have been anything, random variation, the vagaries of 4-ways, KP's awesome Pokemon pic in round 3 (this one I think is actually credible). I dunno about OOT magically boosting between rounds though- that sounds like a pretty desperate argument.

It has every reason to outdo what LTTP is getting here. It's unhindered.

Then when it fails to do so I hope people will finally drop this idea of FFX being strong. If it does beat LTTP's number here comfortably, and the reason is not that Brawl stands up to OOT really well or anything really unusual, I'll drop the high 50s thing.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

No, I sense a sucky round 3 MGS4 performance.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

I think you should just go with unadjusted stats and let people do their own research from there. It's not like any adjustments will make sense anyway.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

I dunno about OOT magically boosting between rounds though- that sounds like a pretty desperate argument.

I'm not even saying it's viable. I just can't think of any other reason for OoT to do better against a fourpack that's supposedly stronger than the fact that it SFF'd Melee hard and thus looked stronger in a weaker pack due to the SFF. I think we can agree that SFF'd Melee would have lost to FFVIII or MGS there.

Who knows. I hate this format and hope we never see it again.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

I plan to do raw stats as well, but honestly, it's hard to do adjustments off of raw stats.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

So, is it etched in stone that LoZ:LttP will hurt LoZ:OoT more than FFX will hurt FF7? FFX is quite a bit newer than LoZ:LttP, and most older games don't look like they've held up as well as they did in 2004. Not that FFX is going to hold up particularly well to FF7 or anything, but there are nearly ten years between them (the biggest difference in age between two games in a match this contest, excluding MM2/Pong in R1). LoZ:LttP is stronger than FFX and there has been more debate among LoZ-fans between their top two games then FF-fans between theirs, yes...but the LoZ:OoT/LoZ:LttP debate isn't really relevant anymore, either, so I don't know how much that will matter.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

The reason it'll matter is that LttP has a much bigger core fanbase than FFX. All of it's Zelda support is going to be drained away, but expect at least 25k voters to stick with it. Meanwhile, FFX, while a good game, is not nearly as well-liked as LttP, so it'll take a much bigger hit when its FF support is drained.

I think FFVII has the definite SFF advantage in that match, but I cling to the LttP side of the LttP/Ocarina debate and will likely not relinquish my vote even if Ocarina needs it, so I may not be the best person to ask.

I think both little siblings are going to be driven pretty low, though; substitute Ocarina for Mario 64 in the quarterfinal and LttP is probably under 15% and quite possibly even lower. FFX for FFVI probably isn't a huge difference, but FFVI could conceivably fall under 10% in such a match and FFX could only do so much better.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

I honestly hope that FFX and LTTP get SFF'd equally so we can end up with two epic FF/LoZ matches, with Final Fantasy winning both!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

That would require more than 50% of the vote to go to the FF side. Possible, but I'd give Zelda the edge if we're talking about combined percentages.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Well it seems that Super Mario World is liked more than Mario Bros 3 considering how World is ahead of SMB3 despite LTTP's presence.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

World is beating 3 pretty much just as badly as last round strangely enough. The other games in the poll do not matter, World is your new master!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Man, today's boring, and tomorrow's probably gonna be boring, too.

FFVII's got 44.80% right now. What are we expecting OoT to get tomorrow? What does it NEED to look good going into the finals?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Meh, this match doesn't really mean much because of the three Nintendo game thing (FVII's had Nintendo LFF in each of its matches and will get it in the final, too!). The only thing that's really going to be interesting about tomorrow is if FFX can stay high on Ocarina with only two Nintendo games instead of three and if Ocarina is higher or lower than last round, which is really just a measure of how much it was LFF'd rather than something worthwhile to compare to FFVII.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/3817/r6finalfantasyx2.png

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

looks good to me potato dude
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 6/6/2009 2:41:44 PM | #119
I plan to do raw stats as well, but honestly, it's hard to do adjustments off of raw stats.

That's the idea. It's not like anyone will agree on adjustments for this anyway.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Am I the only one here who doesn't care about stats? There's so many X-Factors in four-ways that make stats completely useless.
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http://backloggery.com/big_bob
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KcdCKfwsFM

Aw yeah, Ocelot time
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

I know stats are useless for four-ways especially. I just like looking at statistics though.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

those numbers suggest a big FF7 win tomorrow night.
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg

From: HaRRicH
Also, to quickly comment on Ulti's SSBB-hate: I read your review again, and I think you hit all the things I didn't like about switching from SSBM to SSBB. I also can't say much about the competitive scene of SSBB, but I'll believe what I've heard about some broken moves. That said, I don't see how these flaws -- even collectively -- made you hate the game when you love SSBM. It feels like you're going out of your way to hate it as much as you are, and I don't buy that you'd play a game enough to go to SSBB-tourneys and win $600 from them yet only give the game a 2/10.

Your opinions, not mine...but it's like you're handing out pitchforks and torches for a game you're put a lot of time into from my perspective. Change isn't so bad and the flaws aren't so unforgivable. If it's really that bad, you don't have to go to tournaments for it. Simple enough.


Also, **** tripping.

That that that that. Sorry to drag this up again and all, but nobody's encapsulated my opinion on this matter as well as this.
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Justice for FD
"This topic is now about Renee Walker aka Rack Bauer." - LostHisHardcore http://i39.tinypic.com/2ps1s76.jpg

Oh I think FF7 wins this easily even if X makes the final. It's gotten stronger every round for some reason, and is currently beating the **** out of three top ten games.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

FFVII looks better the tougher the draw because it has a hardcore fanbase. We talk about cult games having hardcore fanbases, but FFVII and OoT have hardcore fanbases.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Eh FF7 can only get so tough of a draw in a four way when the top 10 is so crammed full of Nintendo. I don't know if anything else in the top 10 is not Nintendo at this point. I guess FFX but I don't know how it fairs against the old Nintendos.
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Should I start running now?

To go into the final as a favorite? In my eyes, it needs to beat FFVII's percentage today (but of course you know what I think of modern games' strength). Actually, if LTTP holds up better than FFX like the favorite FF/Zelda polls suggest, even that may not be enough. But I would certainly not put it past the Nintendo fanbase to ditch LTTP in droves to make OOT win- the Nintendo fanbase knows how to win contests, and the anti-FFVII fanbase certainly would be quite willing to vote for OOT even if they prefer LTTP.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

hey TRE, what's the BOP consensus bracket score? I know you do this every year. the last few rounds have played out pretty cookie-cutter like so I'm thinking it might be somewhat close to the leaderboard.
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg

hey TRE, what's the BOP consensus bracket score? I know you do this every year. the last few rounds have played out pretty cookie-cutter like so I'm thinking it might be somewhat close to the leaderboard.

352 points. That's 188th place. The Guru consensus is even better. It has 360 points and is 105th place. I think the BOP is too far away but the Guru consensus bracket might hit top 50.

Match LXII: LoZ: Ocarina of Time vs. Final Fantasy X vs. Metal Gear Solid 4 vs. Super Smash Bros. Brawl.

Last Round:

LoZ: Ocarina of Time – 40.76%
Final Fantasy X – 23.87%
Pokemon RBY – 20.85%
Super Smash Bros. Melee – 14.51%

Metal Gear Solid 4 – 27.20%
Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 27.12%
LoZ: Twilight Princess – 23.50%
Resident Evil 4 – 22.18%

Analysis

Much like the other semi-final match this is more or less set in stone with only a small chance for upset. The quarter-finals saw many crazy results and failed comebacks, but with no bandwagon game the final two rounds have become more of a formality. What will be interesting about this match is that it will tell us how strong the games are that were made after the 2004 contest.

Continuing on its bulldozing streak Ocarina of Time will take first. While not as impressive as Final Fantasy VII its performance is still dominant enough that even third place would struggle to break 40%. On many gaming sites the game does well and if all the gaming sites were to vote I’d expect Ocarina of Time to win it all. Unlike Final Fantasy VII Ocarina of Time doesn’t have a large Nintendo stew to work with so don’t expect it to reach 45% or even 40% for that matter.

Super Smash Bros. Brawl was dragged down last round because of Twilight Princess; now imagine was Ocarina of Time can do. We’ve already seen this with Melee so expect more or less the same kind of beating. As for which game is able to do better in a SFF situation is rather hard to predict. While Melee has more hardcore fans, which in my opinion is small Brawl is further away from the Nintendo 64 than Melee also the Wii fanbase probably has a smaller overlap with the Nintendo 64 compare to the Gamecube.

This time Metal Gear Solid 4 will take an easy win over Brawl. While it does have a chance at placing I don’t think it will happen. I see the original Metal Gear Solid being the strongest in the series by a long shot and last round Final Fantasy X showed that at the very least it could compete with it. For Metal Gear Solid 4 to have a chance it would need to be very close to the original Metal Gear Solid while Final Fantasy X overperformed a lot because of three Nintendo games being in the match.

Final Fantasy X is the favourite to take second as it was at the beginning of the contest. It did rather well last round even if it was against a bunch of Nintendo games. This round the only thing that would come close as competition would be Metal Gear Solid 4, but I think the low player-ship will come to haunt it. While not technically the second strongest game in this half of the bracket Ocarina of Time more or less destroyed any chance of other Nintendo games advancing far into the bracket.

While I’m hoping for an interesting match it will most likely be a simple and boring. There’s one more match left to analysis and then we’re done with games for another five or so years. I wonder if we’ll be getting a Character Battle later in the year or is that going to take a break for a year. Personally I think the Character Battle doesn’t need a break to either format since four-ways is just unpredictable and we’ve already had a two year break with one vs. one.

charmander6000’s Bracket: LoZ: Ocarina of Time > Final Fantasy X

charmander6000’s Prediction: LoZ: Ocarina of Time – 41.83%, Final Fantasy X – 23.60%, Metal Gear Solid 4 – 19.47%, Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 15.10%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > SMB3 Points: 355/512

I wouldn't count Brawl out just yet, there's a few major differences on this match that might not make it as predictable as you might think.

Brawl had to deal with not just 1, but 2 other Wii games (yeah i know RE4 is multiplat and so is TP but theyre also on the Wii). So a fair amount of its console votes were sapped.

MGS4 is still the one opponent Brawl needs to get better on and i think in this match it might have a better chance due to a lack of other Wii games present (although you could count OOT since its a Wii shop download).

FFX is one of the better final fantasy games however i doubt it can advance here even though it did rather well in the last round.

Now we all know that OOT is a beast, but weve seen that Brawl can resist a fair amount of SFF, although TP and RE4 did hurt it. Here there's only OOT to sap votes and it may not sap as much as you might think.

So well soon see how it goes, i don't think OOT can smash Brawl nearly as hard as it did to Melee.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

It's funny that three potential top ten games combined can barely get 55% on Final Fantasy VII. This game's a beast.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-62-1.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-62-2.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-62-3.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-62-4.jpg

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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

I have a funny feeling about Brawl.. can't even pin it down. I had the same feeling about Melee though and whoops
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg

Not a great looking group of pictures, I must say. Third one is my favorite.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Advantage: Auron
Disadvantage: Seymour

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif

yeah, 1 and 2 are awful.

oh well!
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg