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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 744

LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 9:36:38 PM | message detail
Civ moved from the first division to the second division. I don't remember what other changes that entailed.

It swapped with Dragon Warrior III.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Lucid Faia | Posted 6/5/2009 9:41:25 PM | message detail
Can't believe we're headed towards a final with two Zelda games and two Final Fantasy games. How dull.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 9:41:53 PM | message detail
Can't believe we're headed towards a final with two Zelda games and two Final Fantasy games. How dull.

This is basically the final everyone was expecting before the contest started.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Lucid Faia | Posted 6/5/2009 9:42:37 PM | message detail
Doesn't make it any less boring.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
2005-2008 Big Ten Champions!
Piazza | Posted 6/5/2009 9:43:25 PM | message detail
MGS4 will take out FFX.
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People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~ Rogers Hornsby
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 9:43:44 PM | message detail
Also, adjusting the stats for yesterday is a pain. MGS4's 42% on SSBB last round complicates things. I can't use what RE4 got on Brawl this round because that puts it over MGS4, which just beat it. I suppose I could use what RE4 got on MGS4 this round and adjust it to last round. That gives us MGS4 > TP.

Well, I guess that's fine for now. Who knows?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 9:44:14 PM | message detail
Doesn't make it any less boring.

Well, you said you "couldn't believe it." I was just saying this was the chalk outcome.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/5/2009 9:44:43 PM | message detail
THAT'S NOT FINE
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 9:46:06 PM | message detail
Oh, it's not?

Uhhh...
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Lucid Faia | Posted 6/5/2009 9:48:35 PM | message detail
MGS4 will take out FFX.

I'll be rooting for it to happen, even though FFX is one of my favorite games. There should be some diversity in the final.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
2005-2008 Big Ten Champions!
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/5/2009 9:50:15 PM | message detail
Take Oblivion vs. TP in Round 3. Now take the score MGS3 got against Oblivion in R2. Use that to find what MGS3 gets against TP. Now take the score RE4 got against MGS3 in R2, and apply it to the Adjusted MGS3. This is what RE4 gets against TP in a fair match.


yeah.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/5/2009 9:51:43 PM | message detail

From: Lucid Faia | #410
MGS4 will take out FFX.

I'll be rooting for it to happen, even though FFX is one of my favorite games. There should be some diversity in the final.


Eh, MGS4 fans will have a fifth chance to vote for their game tomorrow. I'm not expecting Bacon to give us FFVII vs. Ocarina after the contest, so I'd much rather see those two duke it out in as even a match as possible for the championship. MGS4 would ruin that and would try to make up for it by giving like 11% of voters a different game to vote for. Not worth it.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 9:52:21 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure round 2 is what RE4 gets on TP in a fair match. It's what those two get on MGS4 and Brawl in a fair match that's confusing.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
HaRRicH | Posted 6/5/2009 9:53:41 PM | message detail
Today's match brings up the question: how much better could LoZ:OoT do against FF7 one-on-one than Team Nintendo is doing against FF7 right now? It's safe to say LoZ:OoT would be doing better, at least.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
hochiminhX | Posted 6/5/2009 9:53:55 PM | message detail
FFVII is a monster. OoT, I hope you're taking notes because.


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I will bury you.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 9:55:30 PM | message detail
OOT could be doing better? These Nintendo games all have pretty bad day votes, and it's a weekend, so FFVII might treat us to classic FFVII trends of rising through the day today, but even then it won't hit 50%. If OOT were to do better, it would have to win, but probably by a fair margin.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/5/2009 9:55:48 PM | message detail
Ah, that's easy. TP vs. Brawl last match is about as fair as that gets, unless you think TP fans abandoned ship to help push Brawl through, which I don't think happened. Just extrapolate RE4 through that.

MGS4's score in R3 was a clear underperformance, I think, so...set it to 48% on Brawl and be on your merry way !!

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/5/2009 9:56:16 PM | message detail
I think RE4 would do better against MGS4 than what its result showed. In my opinion, one of RE4's biggest strengths also turned out to be one of its main problems - it overlaps with nearly EVERYTHING. Seriously, it might be the only mature game in history that was uber-hyped as a Nintendo game for the core Nintendo fanbase, and it's a million seller on three home consoles (two Nintendo, one Sony). How many other games in the bracket can claim to be a million seller on three consoles? Maybe just the Marios if you count Virtual Console sales.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
DawgKat | Posted 6/5/2009 9:57:35 PM | message detail
Ugh, FF7 will have this one because 1. The Nintendo fans will be split 3 ways and 2. The Mario fans will be split between 3 and World.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 9:58:51 PM | message detail
TP vs. Brawl last match is about as fair as that gets

Yeah, but then you get RE4 > MGS4! I guess I could chalk up round two to an underperformance or something. I don't have any reason to do so though.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 9:59:42 PM | message detail

From: DawgKat | #419
Ugh, FF7 will have this one because 1. The Nintendo fans will be split 3 ways and 2. The Mario fans will be split between 3 and World.


those arent the only reasons ff7 has this won
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 9:59:56 PM | message detail
I agree that round 3 looks like an overperformance for Brawl. Maybe give MGS4 what it got in the GOTY poll?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 10:00:17 PM | message detail
Meh, I don't want to use GOTY polls.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Meeks54 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:01:04 PM | message detail
Red, where is my set up for this match?


This it the moment the cheater L Block/Mario is finally killed off, and by Link and Cloud no less, so that Cloud and Link can have their ultimate battle for supremacy in the ruins of Midgar. I demand a damn story
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/5/2009 10:01:08 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #423
Meh, I don't want to use GOTY polls.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2254

Looks legitimate.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
Lucid Faia | Posted 6/5/2009 10:01:28 PM | message detail
Eh, MGS4 fans will have a fifth chance to vote for their game tomorrow. I'm not expecting Bacon to give us FFVII vs. Ocarina after the contest, so I'd much rather see those two duke it out in as even a match as possible for the championship. MGS4 would ruin that and would try to make up for it by giving like 11% of voters a different game to vote for. Not worth it.

True... MGS4 winning gives FF7 an easy win in the final, while FFX winning keeps it competitive.

Though I think FF7 has it either way.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
2005-2008 Big Ten Champions!
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/5/2009 10:03:04 PM | message detail
Just set MGS4 a little above RE4/TP and a little below Brawl.

Best you're going to get. MGS4 isn't a transitive game in the slightest; the tougher the competition, the better it does. Just look at the GotY polls, and its matches here.

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Sonic_Factor | Posted 6/5/2009 10:04:32 PM | message detail
holy omg @ ff7% right now... 1 hour in and over 41%? dayam
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/5/2009 10:06:25 PM | message detail
FFVII Power Hour ended early, apparently. Pretty weird to watch it drop six updates in a row.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:06:42 PM | message detail
This it the moment the cheater L Block/Mario is finally killed off, and by Link and Cloud no less, so that Cloud and Link can have their ultimate battle for supremacy in the ruins of Midgar. I demand a damn story

I'll work on it tomorrow (or rather today) when I wake up. Would have done it earlier but I've been rather busy this week, and this fanfic will have to incorporate 4 matches worth of stuff (Pokemon is of course aligned with L-Block).
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:08:33 PM | message detail
Alright FFVII, you've lost enough time. Now crush these Nintendo games with every other voting block! These games (especially the Marios) have top tier power hours and mediocre to bad day votes. Crush them!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:11:38 PM | message detail
So the split for the final should be pretty close to 50% Zelda/50% Final Fantasy. Should be kinda interesting to see which side takes that, seeing as we've got #1 and #2 of both series in the match.
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 6/5/2009 10:13:03 PM | message detail
imo.. mgs being there will hurt ff7 more
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
Sonic_Factor | Posted 6/5/2009 10:13:38 PM | message detail
due to what happened to ff8
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 10:14:55 PM | message detail
Just set MGS4 a little above RE4/TP and a little below Brawl.

I don't like doing arbitrary adjustments either. Oh well, I've got what I'm going with for now anyway.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
awesomepossum00 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:15:28 PM | message detail
MGS would hurt it...but it wont make it. utterly moot point.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/5/2009 10:16:33 PM | message detail
FF7 drops .5% in the past 40 minutes? What is this insanity?!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/5/2009 10:16:39 PM | message detail
I'm trying to figure out just how Zelda beat Final Fantasy in 2006. Ocarina + LttP is probably a bit stronger than FFVII + FFX, but judging by the huge drop in Zelda strength after that, FF definitely has more reserves on its side. Maybe the 2D Final Fantasies had already long turned to crap before then, or maybe Wii/TP hype was just as good as TP's eventual release.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 10:20:12 PM | message detail
The Series Contest just can't be correlated to games. That's all there is to it.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:20:54 PM | message detail
I'm not sure about the FF's having deeper strength after that. FFX, FFVI, Zelda 1, and TP are probably all fairly close to each other- an advantage to the FF games but not much of one.

The thing is that LTTP would rock the second strongest FF game hard- high 50s, with a small chance at 60%.
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Meeks54 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:21:28 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #439
The Series Contest just can't be correlated to games. That's all there is to it.




Yes it can, and when OoT dismantles FF VII in the bonus match, that will be the end of that. If series does not correlate to games, please explain to me how SSB held with Mario, and then Mario held with FF?
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
Sonic_Factor | Posted 6/5/2009 10:21:44 PM | message detail
I doubt Lttp gets more then 55 on ffx, maybe even ff8.
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/5/2009 10:23:25 PM | message detail
60% on FFX I think is a colossal underestimation of FFX. Or an overestimation of LttP I don't know
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:23:47 PM | message detail
Leon's right though. People can have FFVII as their favorite game and still vote for the Zelda series over the Final Fantasy series. I know I would vote Melee over any Mario game, but wouldn't dream of voting for the SSB series over the Mario series- all the more reason that match impressed me so much.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/5/2009 10:24:28 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #440
I'm not sure about the FF's having deeper strength after that. FFX, FFVI, Zelda 1, and TP are probably all fairly close to each other- an advantage to the FF games but not much of one.

The thing is that LTTP would rock the second strongest FF game hard- high 50s, with a small chance at 60%.


TP wasn't released yet, though, which is why it's more puzzling. It would be easier to buy now since TP is obviously a valuable addition to the Zelda arsenal, but back then, the Zelda 3D library was Ocarina and the insanely weaker Majora's Mask and Wind Waker. I guess I can buy Wii/TP hype helping out, but it just seems harder to believe hype for one game can boost an entire series (unless that series is damned Smash Bros).

Although TP hype was pretty big back in the day, so whatever! Just something fun to think about.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 10:24:29 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | LOZ: TP | RE4 | SSBB | MGS4 | Demographic
EBV | 23.41% | 23.55% | 27.99% | 25.05% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 22.86% | 21.81% | 26.78% | 28.55% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 22.90% | 23.23% | 24.71% | 29.16% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 23.65% | 23.05% | 25.23% | 28.07% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 24.19% | 22.53% | 26.89% | 26.39% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 23.63% | 21.40% | 29.26% | 25.71% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 22.56% | 20.16% | 28.91% | 28.37% | (22:00-24:00)

Yesterday's stats:

Metal Gear Solid 4 – 50.00%
Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 49.92%
Twilight Princess – 46.35%
Resident Evil 4 – 44.91%

Fourth Quarter Stats

Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 50.00%
Metal Gear Solid 4 – 42.03%
Twilight Princess – 38.96%
Resident Evil 4 – 37.75%
Metal Gear Solid 3 – 37.50%
Kingdom Hearts II – 37.21%
Fallout 3 – 35.58%
Super Mario Galaxy – 33.88%
Oblivion – 32.99%
Tales of Symphonia – 31.85%
God of War – 31.72%
World of Warcraft – 31.35%
Call of Duty 4 – 31.00%
Portal – 30.99%
San Andreas – 30.75%
Grand Theft Auto IV – 30.44%
Half-Life 2 – 30.44%
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl – 30.23%
BioShock – 29.61%
Final Fantasy XII – 29.36%
Halo 3 – 29.34%
Halo 2 – 28.59%
Shadow of the Colossus – 26.37%
Okami – 26.08%
Left 4 Dead – 24.74%
Street Fighter IV – 22.14%
Persona 4 – 22.13%
Gears of War – 21.80%
Mass Effect – 20.01%
Team Fortress 2 – 19.60%
LittleBigPlanet – 17.68%
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney – 17.59%

Hmmm...Maybe these stats aren't that bad. San Andreas slightly above GTA IV and Halo 3 a little above 2 are expected. Don't like some other stuff though.

Fourth Quarter Raw Stats

Metal Gear Solid 4 – 50.00%
Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 49.92%
Twilight Princess – 46.35%
Resident Evil 4 – 44.91%
Kingdom Hearts II – 44.49%
Metal Gear Solid 3 – 39.05%
Portal – 36.87%
Half-Life 2 – 36.21%
Oblivion – 36.12%
Fallout 3 – 35.52%
BioShock – 35.23%
Final Fantasy XII – 34.93%
God of War – 34.73%
Halo 3 – 34.01%
San Andreas – 33.68%
World of Warcraft – 32.65%
Shadow of the Colossus – 31.37%
Call of Duty 4 – 30.95%
Tales of Symphonia – 30.87%
Grand Theft Auto IV – 30.39%
Halo 2 – 29.77%
Super Mario Galaxy – 27.44%
Okami – 27.16%
Gears of War – 25.94%
Left 4 Dead – 25.01%
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl – 24.47%
Street Fighter IV – 22.10%
Persona 4 – 22.09%
LittleBigPlanet – 21.03%
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney – 20.92%
Mass Effect – 20.23%
Team Fortress 2 – 15.86%
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 10:25:18 PM | message detail
If series does not correlate to games, please explain to me how SSB held with Mario, and then Mario held with FF?

Yeah, because Mario sure is holding up there with FFVII right now. Even when you put the two together, FFVII's still kicking their tail.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:27:04 PM | message detail
60% on FFX I think is a colossal underestimation of FFX. Or an overestimation of LttP I don't know

Well, the 2004 x-stats project LTTP to get 55.71% on FFX. There's really no reason to think it does worse than that then (CT and SSBM probably both overperformed on FFVII), and since then Nintendo has in general risen relative to Square. High 50s shouldn't be surprising at all.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 10:27:07 PM | message detail
The thing is that LTTP would rock the second strongest FF game hard- high 50s, with a small chance at 60%.

Have we seen the same LTTP this contest? 35-36% on FFVII probably isn't any better than FFX gets.

TP wasn't released yet, though, which is why it's more puzzling.

Actually, this could explain it. Hype zone
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/5/2009 10:28:36 PM | message detail
After the contest there was a poll that asked if LoZ was really the greatest series and there was an option that said "Maybe, depends on Twilight Princess" and I think it got 10%. If that many people were really depending on that game to freaking make the difference between LoZ being the best or not being the best I'd say it had some expectations on it
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.