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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 744

Meeks54 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:28:41 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #444
Leon's right though. People can have FFVII as their favorite game and still vote for the Zelda series over the Final Fantasy series. I know I would vote Melee over any Mario game, but wouldn't dream of voting for the SSB series over the Mario series- all the more reason that match impressed me so much.




That is exactly what I am saying though. The series contest CLEARLY came down to games, because no one in their right mind would say Smash Bros was a better series than Mario, but everyone voted for Melee, which many people think is one of the best games of all time, and better than any Mario game. It is the same reason that Mario was able to hang with FF on a site that worships the series, because plenty of people out there would say SM 64/SMW/SMB 3 (whatever the strongest is) is better than FF VII.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:31:14 PM | message detail
Have we seen the same LTTP this contest? 35-36% on FFVII probably isn't any better than FFX gets.

We'll see about this tomorrow. I think OOT doubles FFX (and Brawl + MGS4 being there is still a slight advantage for FFX, probably), and FFVII is a bit above OOT. Hence, high 50s for LTTP against FFX. If FFX does better than that, or OOT gets very close to or beats FFVII, I'll reconsider my position of course. Remember that LTTP put up 55% against FFVI with 2 Nintendo games in there leeching it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 10:33:25 PM | message detail
because plenty of people out there would say SM 64/SMW/SMB 3 (whatever the strongest is) is better than FF VII.

Yep, about 30% of them would.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/5/2009 10:33:49 PM | message detail
Statistically speaking to reach 60% and you think FFX gets doubled by OoT, that means FF7 beats OoT worse than 55-45.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 10:33:57 PM | message detail
Remember that LTTP put up 55% against FFVI with 2 Nintendo games in there leeching it.

And I take FFX over FFVI, so no problem here.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/5/2009 10:35:18 PM | message detail
LTTP would get 53% on FFX. At the most.

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red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:36:01 PM | message detail
Statistically speaking to reach 60% and you think FFX gets doubled by OoT, that means FF7 beats OoT worse than 55-45.

That would be why I said 60% was only an outside shot. And the more realistic scenario for LTTP getting 60% on FFX calls for OOT to go above a doubling on FFX 1v1, rather than for FFVII to go that high on OOT.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 10:36:06 PM | message detail
Aw yeah, Mario 3 with the night vote comeback!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
ZFS | Posted 6/5/2009 10:36:33 PM | message detail
I don't know when FFVI was suddenly on par with FFX, but it's not.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 10:36:43 PM | message detail
LTTP hasn't looked good enough to warrant 60% on FFX. I know you don't seem to think much of FFX, but it's not THAT weak.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
hochiminhX | Posted 6/5/2009 10:37:44 PM | message detail
I have decided that whoever wins between SMW/SMB3 this match is the stronger of the two. They are 1-1.

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I will bury you.
ZFS | Posted 6/5/2009 10:38:07 PM | message detail
Oh, I see it's red sox ! Dude will do anything to make new games look weak and old games look strong.

LttP isn't getting close to 60% on FFX. It hasn't looked anywhere near that good.

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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 6/5/2009 10:39:05 PM | message detail
Meh. I would take FFX over LTTP straight up.
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Feel my truth.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:40:17 PM | message detail
LTTP would get 53% on FFX. At the most.

Do you think LTTP has taken a big fall since 2004 or something? It was already projected to get near 56% then, and Nintendo is stronger relative to Square on the site in general now than then, even after the Deboost. I assume you do take FFX over both SMB3 and SMW? Both are being held under 41% right now, and we've already seen the LFF between those games isn't massive, especially as LTTP overlaps with the a good deal too.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 10:40:17 PM | message detail
im thinking in the final that FFX does get trashed more then FF6 was by FF7, though. FF7 and FFX should share more of the same fanbase then old vs. new square
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Janus5000 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:40:49 PM | message detail
If LttP pushes 60% on FFX, then CT and SM64 get high 50s on it.

Maybe I'm just overestimating FFX, but those both seem a bit much.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/5/2009 10:41:21 PM | message detail
Do you think LTTP has taken a big fall since 2004 or something?

Yes.

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red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:42:48 PM | message detail
FFVI may be weaker than FFX, but LTTP would probably actually break 60% on it. All I said was that LTTP would probably get high 50s on FFX- that implies an outside shot at 60% and an outside shot at 55% too, you know. This really shouldn't be a surprising result at all if it happens.
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:44:40 PM | message detail
Bold prediction: The finals go 40/30/20/10 (FF7, OoT, LTTP, FFX) and we don't get a FF7/OoT bonus match.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
BDawg | Posted 6/5/2009 10:44:42 PM | message detail
I don't know what to think of anything 1v1 anymore. Four ways has rotted my mind.
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Should I start running now?
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 6/5/2009 10:46:13 PM | message detail
http://tinyurl.com/pypycs
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Feel my truth.
paulg235 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:54:09 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be suprised if we saw some of that hilarious ZeldaSFF in the final. OoT hasn't met any other Zelda game yet, and look what Link did to Zelda/Ganondorf. OoT could very well go 80-20 on LttP.
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 6/5/2009 11:02:37 PM | message detail
OOT would need to go 95-5 to have a shot at FF7. I honestly think FFX has a better shot at second, than OOT has at first. This performance by FF7 is just ridiculous.
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Feel my truth.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/5/2009 11:02:48 PM | message detail
Mario 3 takes the lead over World


aaaaaaaaand no one cares
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 11:03:47 PM | message detail
bad update alert
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 6/5/2009 11:03:56 PM | message detail
Almost as exciting as SFIV and Persona. What a match!
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
Meeks54 | Posted 6/5/2009 11:05:30 PM | message detail

From: Tequilla Gundam | #473
OOT would need to go 95-5 to have a shot at FF7. I honestly think FFX has a better shot at second, than OOT has at first. This performance by FF7 is just ridiculous.


Nintendo is beating FF VII 60-40 right now. The VAST majority of those Nintendo votes would go to OoT. It is impressive, but not ridiculous. (What would be Ridiculous would be if OoT were here right now, it might be hitting 55 on the other 3 games)

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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 11:10:50 PM | message detail
all is well in the world again
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transience | Posted 6/5/2009 11:17:41 PM | message detail
LTTP's not getting 60% on FFX. sorry. it'd need to be weaker than FF6 for that and.. yeah.

I think OOT would have beaten FF7 in 2006. Zelda was just that huge then.
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xyzzy
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 11:20:37 PM | message detail
FFX is really overrated here, or perhaps LTTP is underrated. But would you all be happier if I said "LTTP probably gets 57-58% or so on FFX" instead of "LTTP has an outside shot at 60%"? They're really pretty much equivalent statements given how unsure we are of the strengths of these games.
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transience | Posted 6/5/2009 11:21:11 PM | message detail
nah, more like "LTTP would get 52% on FFX."
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xyzzy
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transience | Posted 6/5/2009 11:21:37 PM | message detail
and LTTP is the really overrated one.
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xyzzy
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/5/2009 11:22:22 PM | message detail
I'd give you 55%. More than that I'd hesitate.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 11:22:31 PM | message detail
..........

Well then, we shall see tomorrow and Monday I guess.
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Meeks54 | Posted 6/5/2009 11:22:48 PM | message detail

From: transience | #481
nah, more like "LTTP would get 52% on FFX."




Honestly, at this point in time you might as well just say LTTP would get 44% on FFX. Cause they have equal chances of happening. ALttP puts at least 55% on FF X, and that is really lowballing ALttP.
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
transience | Posted 6/5/2009 11:23:38 PM | message detail
I don't really think we will. this final is going to be pretty wonky. we've all seen the last two fourway finals.
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xyzzy
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/5/2009 11:26:32 PM | message detail
With the Series Contest, I think we just have to assume general respect and perceptions of status helped decide a lot of things. RE4 kills any Mega Man or Street Fighter game before it's even ported to the PS2, yet MM > RE > SF in their division. Heck, still using Mega Man, MMX would be doing well to beat SMK and MK64 should blow out anything else he has to offer, yet MM won easily. Alternatively, GTA:SA was GotY and GTA3 and GTA:VC were runner-ups for GotY, yet it lost to Warcraft...which then lost ALL respect/status against SMB. There are other examples like Sonic, too.

I think people simply look at series differently from games, and I don't think we did a particularly good job figuring out why that was because, well, it was the Series Contest. It's not just which series has the strongest game, the most diverse fanbase, the most loyal following, the largest library, been around the longest, or other factors that we thought would decide things. It was a weird contest to watch, care about, or look much into.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/5/2009 11:26:36 PM | message detail
I thought Meeks was of the opinion that OoT > FF7

With LttP never managing to put up more than 37% on FF7 you'd have to see FFX get more than doubled for LttP just to put up 55% on it. And that's with FF7=OoT >_> Obviously the more you think OoT is stronger the more worse than a doubling FFX would have to eat.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 11:27:08 PM | message detail
LTTP has shown plenty of feats for its strength. It has 2004, the List, and this year it has 55% on FFVI despite 2 Nintendo games in the poll (I remember people here were so shocked about that one) plus 59% on SMB3/SMW right now, which probably goes above 60% by the end of the mach.

What has FFX ever done to show it is strong? Is it because it's the second strongest Final Fantasy? (this isn't even 100% certain) That really doesn't mean all that much- FFX is the 2nd strongest FF because FFVI fell off a cliff, not because it boosted up to catch it, and LTTP had no trouble with FFVI back in 2004.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 11:28:55 PM | message detail
I don't really think we will. this final is going to be pretty wonky. we've all seen the last two fourway finals.

I mean we'll see OOT crush tomorrow's poll (and FFX) and still lose to FFVII in the final. Wouldn't be surprised with LTTP going well north of 60% on FFX in the final, but that wouldn't prove anything other than FFVII being an SFF monster.
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transience | Posted 6/5/2009 11:29:34 PM | message detail
shocked? not really. more like expected.

LTTP has not impressed in any match this year. it hasn't disappointed either, really, but it's yet to put up a performance that really left me in awe.
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
hochiminhX | Posted 6/5/2009 11:31:46 PM | message detail
All of the former elite games (CT, LTTP, SMB3, SSBM, FFVI, Starcraft) did terrible this contest.

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I will bury you.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 11:31:53 PM | message detail
Didn't surprise me either. But some people acted like it was shocking (probably typical stats topic overreaction). And however weak you think FFVI is these days, 59% on SMB3/SMW is pretty impressive.
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transience | Posted 6/5/2009 11:34:09 PM | message detail
maybe if they were alone. this is a match that Zelda 1 almost won.
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xyzzy
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/5/2009 11:37:13 PM | message detail
One last post for the night: LTTP doesn't have to put up any awe-inspiring performances to get 57-58% on FFX like I'm saying is the most likely result. It was already almost at 56% in 2004; it just has to stay constant while FFX drops a small bit due to Square weakening in general. I really don't know where people got this idea that FFX was likely to be closer to LTTP than it was in 2004.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/5/2009 11:37:44 PM | message detail
SMB3 took the lead?!

Mario 3 fans, fight with me now.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 6/5/2009 11:37:55 PM | message detail
14 people fell off the Top 50 today. Tos_forever, MaddChillhouse, TVontheRadio, Mac_Arrowny, Mirrorzzz, ChronoFAQs, kaonashi1, trannyscience, Spiffy_1st, Fisticuff86, charmander6000, Iubaris, GoldSlime35 and MMXcalibur did not have MGS4 > SSBB as yesterday's winners.

22 people scored half points and lived. Former first place Yesmar88, mariomaster777, Scott_Pilgrim, Vivi_XIII, Tjian, ChemicalDragon, the_champ999, PorkmanDeLardo, mr_fettuccine, FiroProchainez, syco_coaster, Wht_Lens, ZenChichiri, Arc_Angel2790, KirbyKhan, firebyrdx, stu300189, RadioontheTV, kangle5411, ZenOfThunder, MetalGoomba and bass260 also did not have MGS4 > SSBB as yesterday's winners.

6 people scored quarter points and survived. TheMaskedLemon, Ludwig_Von_6, Ultimaphazon, Ludwig_Von_2, RagingDragonair and Xcarvengerx had something vaguely similar to MGS4 > SSBB as yesterday's winners.

2 people didn't score any points at all and survived. XxSoulxX2 and JimmyBo1515 had neither MGS4 nor SSBB advancing yesterday.
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...
UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/5/2009 11:44:03 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | Posted: 6/6/2009 2:37:44 AM | #496
SMB3 took the lead?!

Mario 3 fans, fight with me now.


Indeed.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 11:44:30 PM | message detail
Play World of Warcraft
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UItimaterializer | Posted 6/5/2009 11:44:36 PM | message detail
You guys should totally
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