GameFAQs Contests

If I'm to be eliminated from the guru, this is a perfect match for it. RE4 losing sucks, but MGS4 winning is perhaps the best result of this contest so far.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

http://www.urban75.org/photos/brighton/images/br162.jpg
---
Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.

Strange that Ulti posted that almost in time for the ASV to begin.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

So who do you guys think wins SMB3/SMW III? I think SMB3 will win by over 1000 votes.
---
The Gamer In Me
I've lost the guru. How? I don't know (lol).

Mario 3/Mario World ends in a tie tomorrow.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

From: Smurf FAQs | #002
http://www.urban75.org/photos/brighton/images/br162.jpg

nice update to post that pic, smurf :)
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

And as far as even trends go, Oblivion is probably the only other thing as balanced as RE4.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Eh, I get full points for MGS4 > Brawl, so if MGS4 actually manages to resist Brawl's hulking ASV strength, all the better for me, I guess.
---
Wylvane's current main account.

I really think SMb3>LttP tomorrow for 2nd. SMW and LttP are bto h SNES games and will suffer. Zelda isn't inseperable from Mario series that much.
---
Playing: Star Ocean: TLH | Ninja Gaiden Black | Ar tonelico II
Favourite game ever - Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time

Tomorrow should be pretty boring. FF7 is going to dominate and LttP should come in a distant, but comfortable second.

SMB3 should dominate SMW thanks to replacing SMB and LoZ with the strongest SNES game.
---
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1

I really think SMb3>LttP tomorrow for 2nd. SMW and LttP are bto h SNES games and will suffer. Zelda isn't inseperable from Mario series that much.

You didn't watch SMB/LoZ/SMB3/SMW did you?

The only way SMB3 takes second is if Mario fans decide to abandon SMW to give SMB3 a chance.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > LoZ: TP Points: 355/480

Also, the end of this match could be interesting. Brawl should cover the distance, so it will all come down to how dedicated the MGS cheat brigade is feeling.

The fact that Brawl will manage to win/come close despite MGS4 being the clear standout here is proof positive that Brawl >>>> Melee, both in terms of awesomeness as well as contest strength.
---
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1

I don't know if Brawl can finish the comeback it's been slowing down lately.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > LoZ: TP Points: 355/480

Spoilers: It can't.
---
(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

The fact that Brawl will manage to win/come close despite MGS4 being the clear standout here is proof positive that Brawl >>>> Melee, both in terms of awesomeness as well as contest strength.

This doesn't really change much regarding SSBB's strength. We already saw what it could do against MGS4 last round. Being able to resist LFF doesn't really say anything about your strength. Considering the gap MGS4 just closed, SSBB isn't really resisiting LFF that well anyways.
---
Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...

this match says absolutely nothing about Brawl vs. Melee. tomorrow's will be a small insight, but even that wouldn't tell us who would win that matchup.

I wish Melee had won yesterday.
---
xyzzy

Yeah the last half hour has been terrible for Brawl, at that rate it'll take the lead well into 11pm.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > LoZ: TP Points: 355/480

I guess this argument is inconclusive for some people, but this is proof enough for me that Melee wins. Brawl has 53% on Twilight Princess. I am very confident that Melee can outdo that with ease. Melee was unlucky, as Ocarina and Pokemon would wreck anything here, and FFX would be my pick to outperform this lot as well.

Actually, I'm not so sure this is about Melee's bad luck as it is about Brawl's very good luck. This last quarter of the bracket probably doesn't have a thing that finishes in the top ten (outside of maybe Brawl itself), and it took advantage of that. I expect a thrashing next round.
---
Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

brawl is fine. it was doing so well earlier it gave itself a little bit of cushin to have a down hour
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

Brawl has 53% on Twilight Princess. I am very confident that Melee can outdo that with ease.

Why?
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

aww yeah back to 50 vote cuts
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

they still look pretty equal to me. Melee and Brawl are equally 'lucky'. the only difference here is that Melee got OOT a round earlier.
---
xyzzy

65-66% on Wind Waker. That was insanely impressive. I expected more from Brawl with regards to SFF today. I understand that the SFF might manifest itself differently with the two Smash games, but I now really doubt voters will favor their year with Brawl over their six years with Melee.

Plus, if you want to throw SFF out the window, I consider Melee's 33.5% on FFX and KH stronger than Brawl's ~27% here.
---
Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

65-66% on Wind Waker. That was insanely impressive.

So was 72% on Galaxy, and I don't see any reason Brawl doesn't rip Wind Waker a new one either.

Plus, if you want to throw SFF out the window, I consider Melee's 33.5% on FFX and KH stronger than Brawl's ~27% here.

MGS4 + TP + RE4 > FFX + KH + DII (mostly due to DII's weakness), and Melee wasn't getting LFF'd to boot.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

I'll go one further. I think Melee's 33.5% on FFX and KH was more impressive than Brawl's 36.68% in its last match, especially since it didn't stand out as much as Brawl, which looked like it was up against three of the same game in one of the pics.
---
Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

I have little respect for Wind Waker so that wasn't really all that to me. besides, Melee has good reason to SFF it, just like Brawl did to Galaxy. using those SFF matches as proof is a bad idea, as is this one.

Melee's non-SFF performance was the FFX/KH match where it was benefiting from the overlap. even then it couldn't put up big numbers.

I think we'll be able to say more in a couple days with FFX vs. MGS4. if MGS4's close to FFX, it's a tossup. if FFX blasts MGS4, Melee wins. if MGS4 wins, Brawl kills Melee.


---
xyzzy

I'll go one further. I think Melee's 33.5% on FFX and KH was more impressive than Brawl's 36.68% in its last match, especially since it didn't stand out as much as Brawl, which looked like it was up against three of the same game in one of the pics.

Melee stood out just as much if not more here - three story-based games on the same console vs. a Nintendo party game. MGS4/Fallout 3/COD4 are different kinds of games.
---
xyzzy

Oh you guys are impossible.
---
Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

more like logical! burn
---
xyzzy

Worst thing about this, of course, is that Brawl will obviously hold up better against Ocarina because there's no Pokemon there to steal its fanbase. Such a shame that this had to happen - I say we all submit a "What is your favorite Smash game?" PotD and see what our chances are.
---
Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

wait, you think Pokemon stole its fanbase? that was all OOT. the only thing Pokemon's been overlapping with is Pokemon.

Brawl's going to get beat down the same way.
---
xyzzy

I mean, Pokemon didn't help... but Melee's big struggle there was OOT.
---
xyzzy

I wouldn't be surprised if Brawl does better.

Melee > Brawl still.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > LoZ: TP Points: 355/480

if anything we should use FFX/MGS4 as comparisons.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > LoZ: TP Points: 355/480

So looks like Brawl's gonna come up just short. 3 failed comebacks in 4 days.
---
I've been waiting for this moment all my life - it's my destiny.
http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg

I dunno, Brawl pulled off 150 votes that hour. the comeback looks pretty on to me.
---
xyzzy

under 500 now
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

200 in the past hour. It's still got plenty of time left to make this comeback succeed
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Based on the past hour SSBB will take the lead at 21:25

Based on the past half hour SSBB will take the lead at 20:50

Brawl looked better on the second half of the hour.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > LoZ: TP Points: 355/480

I don't think taking the lead by like 9:00 is going to be enough to win this. By that time MGS4 is going to start to recover and Brawl's gonna get 11:45'd.
---
In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg

11:45 no chance against Mario and 34 clones
---
xyzzy

wait, you think Pokemon stole its fanbase? that was all OOT. the only thing Pokemon's been overlapping with is Pokemon.

If Pokemon was replaced with MGS, I think there would have been a very concentrated effort by Nintendo fans to get Melee through, and I honestly think it might have worked. With Pokemon there, that was obviously impossible. Brawl is in a no-lose situation tomorrow. If it loses or gets fourth, who cares? Melee just got absolutely killed, so Brawl is afforded the same bad performance. If it holds up well and actually advances or threatens to, then the board thinks it's the stronger game when the matches are completely different.
---
Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Um... You do realize MGS has a bad snv, right? SSBB should keep on gaining on its lead till the match is over
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

oh, I won't judge Brawl vs. Melee by their performances on OOT. that's just a Bad Idea.

I'll go through FFX vs. MGS4. Leon's stats will be helpful here if he can find a good way to gauge Brawl - I'd guess taking MGS4 and extrapolating Brawl's r2 performance.
---
xyzzy

I still don't think Brawl is gonna do this...
---
You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.

Is the ASV income over yet?
---
The King Of The World
Folding@Home - Official GameFAQs Team : 48759

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #043
Um... You do realize MGS has a bad snv, right? SSBB should keep on gaining on its lead till the match is over

Well if it goes the same as last round's match, the last 2 hours of the match should result in nearly a complete stall by MGS4, with Brawl with a very slight advantage. So at the very least if MGS4 can keep the lead by 22:00 it's probably ok. If it loses the lead before 22:00 it's screwed without shenanigans
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

hmm, brawl can't afford these gains by mgs4
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=49826165&message=546403148

whoops
---
xyzzy

From: transients | #049
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=49826165&message=546403148

-foot in mouth-
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg