GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 743
consolefreak | Posted 6/5/2009 9:29:03 AM | message detail |
I know right? Like the time that SMW didn't split any ASV votes at all with SMB3 and totally didn't let Zelda make a comeback? Loz's day vote > SMB3's day vote. By a good margin. SMW doens't have anything to do with that. LFF is questionable at best, I agree. But you're a bit silly if you think Brawl is THAT much stronger than TP. What does this have to do with anything? --- Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/5/2009 9:29:44 AM | message detail |
Hmm... 1500 already. I think MGS will be alright. --- Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!! |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 9:29:47 AM | message detail |
man brawl is gonna cut through this lead like butter come asv --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
transience | Posted 6/5/2009 9:30:14 AM | message detail |
just look at it today. Brawl is cutting bigtime at noon, not 3. pretty obvious if you ask me! --- xyzzy http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 9:30:18 AM | message detail |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #352 Brawl has cut almost 100 last half hour. It might not even be 1000 come asv --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/5/2009 9:30:21 AM | message detail |
Hmm, if Brawl's already doing damage...this might actually be close. --- This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists? |
ff6man | Posted 6/5/2009 9:30:24 AM | message detail |
Brawl's cut over 100 in 40 minutes. <_< --- Rs Name: Igglybuff138 - Skill Total - 1830+ - Combat level 119 - 283/283 Quest Points - BGE Contest Score: 313 (Today: MGS4 > Brawl) |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/5/2009 9:30:53 AM | message detail |
Oh wait, it was at 1650 like an hour go. ... Melee > Brawl --- Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!! |
consolefreak | Posted 6/5/2009 9:31:39 AM | message detail |
Of
the Smash-Mario-Zelda ASV giants, the only game from those series that
Brawl has faced to this point is Galaxy. Not exactly a juggernaut. I think you make the mistake of coupling trends to strength. They're 100% unrelated. SSBB doesn't have to be strong to have a great day vote. And the fact that its day vote is assumed to be great is because of SSBM (and it certainly hasn't done anything to make its day vote seem weaker). --- Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 9:33:19 AM | message detail |
From: consolefreak | #359 http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/board8/images/c/c7/Graph2867.png heres a great example of being weak but having a killer asv still! --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
deadeyedllv | Posted 6/5/2009 9:33:28 AM | message detail |
I
admit Brawl has looked good the last couple of updates, but I don't see
a comeback happening. Having to split the ASV with Zelda is going to
really hurt. I am also very curious to see if the ASV has weakened. I
know all the schools in my area had their last day yesterday. Are the
schools still in session where you all live? --- You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far. |
Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/5/2009 9:33:28 AM | message detail |
Loz's day vote > SMB3's day vote. By a good margin. SMW doens't have anything to do with that. I don't disagree with that. But the margin was made larger because of SMW's presence in the match. You can't pretend to think that SMW had no effect on SMB3's day vote whatsoever. That'd be plain silly. What does this have to do with anything? The fact that TP will legitimately take votes from Brawl because it has a strong day vote, that's what. --- formerly known as The_LeppreKhan http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374 |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 9:34:43 AM | message detail |
From: deadeyedllv | #361 In Maryland it lets out second week of june typically --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 9:36:07 AM | message detail |
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3501&type=2&seconds=60&max=0 MGS has a bad DSV... so I don't think anyone should have expected it to "Make a killing" at this point. Its just downhill after the night vote --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
ff6man | Posted 6/5/2009 9:36:32 AM | message detail |
I'm actually fairly certain this will be down to the wire. I know Brawl is good enough to come back. --- Rs Name: Igglybuff138 - Skill Total - 1830+ - Combat level 119 - 283/283 Quest Points - BGE Contest Score: 313 (Today: MGS4 > Brawl) |
consolefreak | Posted 6/5/2009 9:39:38 AM | message detail |
Yeah Marcus Fenix and Axel have some of the best day votes, despite being weak. I don't disagree with that. But the margin was made larger because of SMW's presence in the match. You can't pretend to think that SMW had no effect on SMB3's day vote whatsoever. That'd be plain silly. Would it? How is that silly, exactly? Seriously, this may not be the strongest retort but please explain to me how exactly that is silly. The fact that TP will legitimately take votes from Brawl because it has a strong day vote, that's what. Yeah and TP having a strong day vote is beneficial for MGS4's percentage, right? How do you figure that works out? --- Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino |
deadeyedllv | Posted 6/5/2009 9:40:16 AM | message detail |
Brawl still too inconsistent right now. It'll win an update followed by a couple stalls or a loss. --- You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far. |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/5/2009 9:43:01 AM | message detail |
Finally, Brawl is regularly cutting MGS4, but it ends up doing it about 5 hours later than in the GotY. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ! |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 9:44:06 AM | message detail |
From: -LusterSoldier- | #368 You realize goty was during winter break, no? Those are weekend trends --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/5/2009 9:46:17 AM | message detail |
Winter break for who? High Schools go back to school the week after New Year's. --- This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists? |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/5/2009 9:47:57 AM | message detail |
You realize goty was during winter break, no? Those are weekend trends The 3-way and 2-way GotY matches were on 1/15/2009 and 1/16/2009. For middle/high school students, they would have already been back at school again. Back when I was in high school, winter break ended for me around January 2nd/3rd. Now for college students, winter break lasts for a longer period of time. For some college students, their winter break would have ended before 1/15/2009. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ! |
Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/5/2009 9:56:47 AM | message detail |
Would
it? How is that silly, exactly? Seriously, this may not be the
strongest retort but please explain to me how exactly that is silly. Uh, SMW and SMB3? As in, released within a couple years of each other? Nearly identical fanbases? If the two of them are in the same poll, I'm pretty sure they're going to be splitting votes that, if they were in separate matches, they would each take mostly for themselves. Yeah and TP having a strong day vote is beneficial for MGS4's percentage, right? How do you figure that works out? It doesn't have to be directly beneficial to MGS4, all it has to do is detract from Brawl. That makes it indirectly beneficial to MGS4. --- formerly known as The_LeppreKhan http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374 |
consolefreak | Posted 6/5/2009 10:04:43 AM | message detail |
Uh,
SMW and SMB3? As in, released within a couple years of each other?
Nearly identical fanbases? If the two of them are in the same poll, I'm
pretty sure they're going to be splitting votes that, if they were in
separate matches, they would each take mostly for themselves. No one is questioning that they're splitting votes. You are suggesting something entirely else. It doesn't have to be directly beneficial to MGS4, all it has to do is detract from Brawl. That makes it indirectly beneficial to MGS4. So TP's great day vote detracts from SSBM's awesome day vote, yet doesn't detract from MGS4's abysmal day vote? --- Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 10:04:44 AM | message detail |
From: -LusterSoldier- | #371 Oh wait you're right, I thought it was the first week of January. My bad --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/5/2009 10:08:14 AM | message detail |
I
admit Brawl has looked good the last couple of updates, but I don't see
a comeback happening. Having to split the ASV with Zelda is going to
really hurt. I am also very curious to see if the ASV has weakened. I
know all the schools in my area had their last day yesterday. Are the
schools still in session where you all live? To determine if the ASV has weakened from schools getting out from the summer, it would be helpful to take a look at the number of votes that are being submitted during the DSV and ASV alone. Because the number of votes submitted during the DSV in a weekend match is almost equal to (or higher than) the number of votes submitted during the ASV. http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Summer_2008_Match_Trends Example from the above page: Time | Crono | L-Block | Pikachu | Alucard | Demographic | Votes EBV | 30.94% | 27.12% | 27.66% | 14.28% | (0:00-0:05) | 1464 PHV | 31.11% | 26.65% | 26.64% | 15.60% | (0:00-1:00) | 11713 FNV | 31.93% | 24.25% | 26.11% | 17.71% | (1:00-6:00) | 25765 BSV | 29.66% | 23.59% | 29.00% | 17.75% | (6:00-9:00) | 12857 DSV | 30.56% | 24.51% | 27.91% | 17.02% | (9:00-14:30) | 41237 ASV | 32.21% | 24.32% | 26.39% | 18.15% | (14:30-22:00) | 38375 SNV | 30.83% | 23.96% | 26.76% | 18.44% | (22:00-24:00) | 7103 The DSV had more votes than the ASV and that was a weekend match. Had that been on a weekday, the number of votes submitted during the ASV would have been around 10000 or higher than the DSV. Once school is out for most of the world, you'll be seeing polls that appear to have weekend trends instead. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ! |
Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/5/2009 10:12:03 AM | message detail |
No one is questioning that they're splitting votes. You are suggesting something entirely else. O_o Say what? That's exactly what I'm suggesting. Vote-splitting (or trend-splitting, for that matter) with a similar game reduces a game's share of a particular trend, that's what I'm also suggesting...but that's more common sense than anything else. So TP's great day vote detracts from SSBM's awesome day vote, yet doesn't detract from MGS4's abysmal day vote? Yes. First of all, if MGS4's day vote is so abysmal and Brawl's is so awesome, even if TP reduced each of them by the same percentage it would still work heavily in MGS4's favor, just by plain math. And secondly, it DOESNT reduce them by the same percentage because TP and Brawl have a much much much larger fanbase overlap than MGS4 and TP. So it works even more heavily in MGS4's favor. --- formerly known as The_LeppreKhan http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374 |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 10:13:18 AM | message detail |
Why
is everyone ignoring how RE4 is gonna hurt MGS4 too? If TP hurts Brawls
day vote, RE4 should hurt MGS4s day vote too since RE4/MGS3 sff'd quite
a bit last round --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 10:14:13 AM | message detail |
We're under 1500 for the first time since 6:57, btw. --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/5/2009 10:14:28 AM | message detail |
OoT didn't stop Pokemon fromdemolishing MGS, so uhhh... --- This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists? |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/5/2009 10:20:27 AM | message detail |
How
are we doing with votals? If the ASV really is getting diluted, I'd
imagine we'd have a noticeably larger voter intake right now than we
did with weekday matches from a month or so ago. --- Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!! |
transience | Posted 6/5/2009 10:21:22 AM | message detail |
it's not really fair to judge a round 4 match to a round 2 one for obvious reasons. --- xyzzy http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/5/2009 10:22:42 AM | message detail |
And
wow, even though TP and RE4 have no shot, this is a damn close
fourpack. I think RE4 might even have a shot at MGS4 in a 1v1. Pretty
evenly matched all around here. --- Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!! |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 10:23:08 AM | message detail |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #380 We're about normal votals at this point I believe. --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 10:25:18 AM | message detail |
For example, we're 2k behind MGS/RBY/FF8/OoT, which happened a week ago. --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
transience | Posted 6/5/2009 10:26:15 AM | message detail |
these divisions have had low votals the whole way through the contest, that makes sense. --- xyzzy http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg |
consolefreak | Posted 6/5/2009 10:27:38 AM | message detail |
O_o Say what? That's exactly what I'm suggesting. Vote-splitting (or trend-splitting, for that matter) with a similar game reduces a game's share of a particular trend, that's what I'm also suggesting...but that's more common sense than anything else. "Or trend-splitting, for that matter". Seriously man, you're making some fundamental logical flaws. Explain to me how SMW somehow doesn't "dilute" SMB's night vote, but does dilute SMB's day vote. And if it dilutes both the night and day vote, then the diluting cancels each other out and there was no diluting to begin with. So why the day vote but not the night vote? Yes. First of all, if MGS4's day vote is so abysmal and Brawl's is so awesome, even if TP reduced each of them by the same percentage it would still work heavily in MGS4's favor, just by plain math. That's some interesting "plain math". TP doesn't reduce SSBB's day vote increase in percentage or augment MGS4's decrease in percentage by some fixed number. It makes them both proportionately weaker. The relationship SSBB-MGS4 is not affected at all. And secondly, it DOESNT reduce them by the same percentage because TP and Brawl have a much much much larger fanbase overlap than MGS4 and TP. So it works even more heavily in MGS4's favor. See above. --- Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/5/2009 10:33:23 AM | message detail |
If
the ASV really is getting diluted, I'd imagine we'd have a noticeably
larger voter intake right now than we did with weekday matches from a
month or so ago. Let's see, in yesterday's match, there were 41708 votes in the ASV and 32226 votes in the DSV. This was calculated using the 22:00 and 14:29 updates for the ASV and using the 14:29 and 9:02 updates for the DSV. That's still 9482 more votes during the ASV than the DSV. I think our ASV is almost just as strong as it was about a month ago when were were still in round 1/round 2, though I think it's probably getting a bit weaker now since schools are starting to get out. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ! |
BDawg | Posted 6/5/2009 10:47:29 AM | message detail |
This is right around the sweet spot where a comeback is possible but certainly not a given. --- Should I start running now? |
draarrowgant | Posted 6/5/2009 10:50:46 AM | message detail |
Sweet- back above 1500 and rising! --- ************************************** psn aarrowgant |
Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/5/2009 10:51:23 AM | message detail |
So why the day vote but not the night vote? Could be that by the time the night vote rolled around, Zelda was gaining on SMB3. Mario fans who, had they voted in the day, would have split their votes, instead voted more for SMB3. Or maybe anti-Zelda fans voted for Mario. When matches get close, crazy things can happen that really mess up normal analysis. That's some interesting "plain math". TP doesn't reduce SSBB's day vote increase in percentage or augment MGS4's decrease in percentage by some fixed number. It makes them both proportionately weaker. The relationship SSBB-MGS4 is not affected at all. Lets use numbers instead. Example (i.e. not real numbers): Normal Brawl day vote: 18,000 votes Normal MGS4 day vote 6,000 votes So let's say TP comes along and of those 24,000 votes, takes 10,000. Now, are you suggesting that of those 10,000, 5k would come from each game? Sure, that would preserve the SSBB-MGS4 gap...but that's a terrible assumption you have to make to get there. A more realistic scenario is TP taking 7,000 from Brawl and 3,000 from MGS4. That makes the votals Brawl DV: 11,000 MGS4 DV: 3,000 TP DV: 10,000 Now the votal gap between Brawl and MGS4 is 4,000 less than it was before. You're assuming that TP will split just as many votes with Brawl during the day as it does with MGS4...and I really don't think that's going to happen. --- formerly known as The_LeppreKhan http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374 |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/5/2009 10:51:26 AM | message detail |
MGS4's starting to cook all of a sudden! --- Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!! |
consolefreak | Posted 6/5/2009 10:58:00 AM | message detail |
Lets use numbers instead. Example (i.e. not real numbers): Normal Brawl day vote: 18,000 votes Normal MGS4 day vote 6,000 votes So let's say TP comes along and of those 24,000 votes, takes 10,000. Now, are you suggesting that of those 10,000, 5k would come from each game? Sure, that would preserve the SSBB-MGS4 gap...but that's a terrible assumption you have to make to get there. A more realistic scenario is TP taking 7,000 from Brawl and 3,000 from MGS4. That makes the votals Brawl DV: 11,000 MGS4 DV: 3,000 TP DV: 10,000 Now the votal gap between Brawl and MGS4 is 4,000 less than it was before. You're assuming that TP will split just as many votes with Brawl during the day as it does with MGS4...and I really don't think that's going to happen. You are right in this scenario, but your comparison is profoundly worthless. This example relates solely to strength, not to trends. Before TP's arrival, SSBB is probably beating MGS4 54-46%. Add TP to the poll and suddenly MGS4 can compete (as per today's match compared to last round). Of course TP is going to hurt SSBB more. The difference with today is that TP has been in this poll since it started. --- Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/5/2009 11:00:18 AM | message detail |
MGS4's starting to cook all of a sudden! I can't see MGS4 getting all these stalls/gains during the ASV, so I have to hope it's just a small hiccup for now. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ! |
Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/5/2009 11:01:56 AM | message detail |
Of course TP is going to hurt SSBB more. THATS ALL IM SAYIN MAN ALL IM SAYIN SAYIN --- formerly known as The_LeppreKhan http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374 |
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/5/2009 11:06:40 AM | message detail |
Epic stallfest going on now. --- Wylvane's current main account. |
draarrowgant | Posted 6/5/2009 11:14:22 AM | message detail |
Not
sure why you guys say "stalling"... nobody is stalling- the trend is
staying the same... so trending would be more appropriate... (assuming
you are talking about MGS4/Brawl) --- ************************************** psn aarrowgant |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 11:14:42 AM | message detail |
From: draarrowgant | #396 lol "Trending" --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
Meeks54 | Posted 6/5/2009 11:15:52 AM | message detail |
From: draarrowgant | #389 No one vote stuffs like MGS. NO ONE. Although after a 3 days ago, Mario is close. --- DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK??? |
consolefreak | Posted 6/5/2009 11:16:16 AM | message detail |
THATS ALL IM SAYIN MAN ALL IM SAYIN SAYIN No, it isn't... Whatever, I'll let SSBB do the talking. --- Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/5/2009 11:29:44 AM | message detail |
its cut 80 votes in 25 minutes mgs is so done --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
