GameFAQs Contests

Brawl won its first hour with 50.43%. In the 3-way GotY final, Brawl won that same hour with 52.27%. Now if Brawl can pick up the pace for the remaining DSV hours and step it up even more with the ASV, it may have a chance at a comeback.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

Brawl's first hour denied by 2 votes.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Technically with that last little boost... mgs4 won the past hour by 2 votes...

Brawl ain't coming back from 1600 votes when it couldn't even make a dent with the morning vote.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

Brawl isn't a morning game though. It's all ASV. It's just like Kingdom Hearts in that regard. Sandbag barely won the morning vote over Magus, for cryin' out loud.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Is it? I thought Brawl had a kinda diluted morning, but still had one.

Even still, have we even seen a 1600 vote comeback at all this contest?
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

Brawl's first hour denied by 2 votes.

If you went by the 8:58 and 9:58 updates, then Brawl won that hour. I used those two updates since they were the closest to the next hour. Leon, I remember asking you how you did your trend charts where if there was a 14:29 update and a 14:34 update, which one would you have used to calculate the trends for the DSV and ASV. You basically said you would have used the update closest to the voting period change (ASV starts at 14:30), which would have been the 14:29 update.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

Even still, have we even seen a 1600 vote comeback at all this contest?

Zelda 1 was down like 1450 against Mario 3, I think. It's possible.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Brawl isn't a morning game though. It's all ASV.

Then how did Brawl pull a comeback on MGS4 in the BSV and DSV during the GotY finals if it doesn't have a good morning vote?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

Because MGS4 doesn't have a good morning vote either.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Because MGS4 doesn't have a good morning vote either.

If it's still gaining on Brawl right now, then it must have a better morning vote than Brawl. It seems like the trends for the GotY just aren't relevant to today's match for some reason. Despite the fact that today's match and the GotY were both run on a weekday.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

From: LeonhartFour | #308
Even still, have we even seen a 1600 vote comeback at all this contest?

Zelda 1 was down like 1450 against Mario 3, I think. It's possible.

and brawl with zelda in the same poll is gonna miraculously do the same? i sincerely doubt it.

and brawl with zelda in the same poll is gonna miraculously do the same? i sincerely doubt it.

Zelda 1 made a comeback with three Mario games in the poll. I fail to see the problem.

If it's still gaining on Brawl right now, then it must have a better morning vote than Brawl.

That's not true. Brawl did better relative to MGS4 with the morning vote, but not well enough to cut consistently. Brawl went up in the morning, MGS4 went down. Twilight Princess did the best with the morning vote though.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

As a result of one of my posts, it would seem like Leon has totally skipped over this post of mine:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=49826165&message=546366398

Which I require a response to from Leon himself.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

The gap has been essentially the same for 2 hours.

Isn't the BSV over at this point? it's 7:20 on the west coast.

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formerly known as The_LeppreKhan
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374

That's fine if you want to do it that way, but I haven't been doing it that way this year, so...
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

From: -LusterSoldier- | #311
Because MGS4 doesn't have a good morning vote either.

If it's still gaining on Brawl right now, then it must have a better morning vote than Brawl. It seems like the trends for the GotY just aren't relevant to today's match for some reason. Despite the fact that today's match and the GotY were both run on a weekday.

there is a trend to draw from the GOTY. MGS4 improved with more games in the poll. it won in the big poll, lost in the 3-way, and lost in the 1v1. MGS4 hasn't shown that as of yet because of the fallout 3 sff (or if not sff, the fact that the votes going to fallout 3 will now go to mgs4) on the way here.

BSV ends at 9:00 AM (6:00 AM on the west coast).
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

Hmm, MGS4 does have a pretty disasteriffic ASV.

If Brawl can keep the lead under control until then I guess I'll give it a chance.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

Zelda 1 made a comeback with three Mario games in the poll. I fail to see the problem.

O_o

The problem is that the presence of 3 Mario games created a HUGE overlap for Zelda to exploit, especially since there were no non-Nintendo entrants. Besides, given a choice, most non-Nintendo (i.e. Square/Konami/etc) fans would vote for Zelda over Mario.

In this match, Brawl has no such help. MGS4 has no game to compete with...Brawl on the other hand is having to wrestle votes away from the first "adult" 3-D Zelda since OoT. TP is a pretty strong game to be fighting with, especially when Brawl is 1600 votes behind the only true non-Nintendo entrant in the match (though RE4 being in the poll could have made things very very interesting...could have).

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formerly known as The_LeppreKhan
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374

BSV ends at 9:00 AM (6:00 AM on the west coast).

kk

thought so, just wanted to be sure

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formerly known as The_LeppreKhan
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374

I'm wondering how in the world I'm going to adjust this quarter of the division.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Zelda 1 made a comeback with three Mario games in the poll. I fail to see the problem.
this is a completely different issue. zelda has a bigger name than mario. like was said above zelda will take the non-nintendo votes more than mario will. yesterday, melee got undeniably wrecked by OoT in the same poll. brawl is maybe a little bit stronger than melee. it's dealing with a less popular zelda, but a zelda nonetheless. it's gonna split, zelda is gonna take it's amazing day vote/ASV/whatever the **** you wanna call it, and leave brawl with shreds of hope for a 1600 vote turnaround. spoilers: it isn't happening.

and zelda 1 still lost, tbqh.
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Member Of The Book Club
09/10/07: When Will Smurf Eat Wang?

Whatever makes Tales of Symphonia look best!

(I think it escapes a doubling from Brawl through Oblivion through TP!)

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Zelda 1 still lost, but it did complete the comeback and take the lead at one point.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Aw yeah, Twilight Princess update win. Comeback time. Man, it'd be awesome if, while Brawl is coming back on MGS4, TP is coming back on Brawl.

...But then that wouldn't make much sense.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

That's fine if you want to do it that way, but I haven't been doing it that way this year, so...

Looks like you aren't doing that for your trend charts this time around. I remember doing a trend chart for last year's bonus match and the trends I got for the DSV, ASV, and SNV were slightly different than what you had up on the Wiki. This was the trend chart I did on last year's bonus match and exactly which updates I used for the trend calculations:

Time | Classic | Young | Toon | CD-I | Updates used to calculate the trends for the voting period
EBV | 48.83% | 6.15% | 13.55% | 31.46% | 0:05
PHV | 55.38% | 5.64% | 13.18% | 25.80% | 1:00
FNV | 59.55% | 5.78% | 14.32% | 20.35% | 1:00 and 6:01
BSV | 64.30% | 6.07% | 14.86% | 14.77% | 6:01 and 9:02
DSV | 64.95% | 6.40% | 14.17% | 14.48% | 9:02 and 14:33
ASV | 63.12% | 6.54% | 15.01% | 15.33% | 14:33 and 22:04
SNV | 64.81% | 6.26% | 14.43% | 14.50% | 22:04 and the last update of the match

This is the trend chart that Leon has up on the Wiki:

Time | Classic | Young | Toon | CD-I
EBV | 48.83% | 6.15% | 13.55% | 31.46%
PHV | 55.38% | 5.64% | 13.18% | 25.80%
FNV | 59.55% | 5.78% | 14.32% | 20.35%
BSV | 64.30% | 6.07% | 14.86% | 14.77%
DSV | 65.01% | 6.39% | 14.13% | 14.46%
ASV | 63.09% | 6.54% | 15.03% | 15.34%
SNV | 64.79% | 6.28% | 14.42% | 14.51%

In order for me to have gotten the exact same trends that Leon got for the DSV, ASV, and SNV, I would need to use the following updates:

DSV - 9:02 and 14:28
ASV - 14:28 and 21:59
SNV - 21:59 and the last update of the match

I'm guessing Leon isn't doing that anymore. If that's the case, then we need to set a standard as to how to trend charts are calculated, whether they would be hourly trend charts or Leon's voting period charts. I mean, some people might use the 8:58 and 9:58 updates to calculate the trends for a specific hour, while someone else might use the 9:03 and 10:03 updates instead. It's important that all of us are on the same page as to how these charts are done.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

It doesn't make that much of a difference, at most .02%. It's not really make-or-break to me, and it's not like it changes the outcome of the match.

And it looks like we may have our fifth match where all four entrants stay above 20%! Strangely enough, three of the previous four times, it happened in TP's and RE4's division (All three of the matches Oblivion was involved in, actually, pretty impressive!). The other was the Diablo II/Halo/KOTOR/GTA3 match.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

It really, really doesn't make that much of a difference.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

It doesn't make that much of a difference, at most .02%. It's not really make-or-break to me, and it's not like it changes the outcome of the match.

Maybe not so much for your voting period trend charts, but it is more important for an hourly trend chart where a huge update for one of the characters/games on the update closest to the next hour could have a bigger effect (like a 0.10% difference or more) on how the chart would look depending on how you did your chart.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

I usually go with the update closest to the hour, it seems the most fair IMO. The only exception would be the last update.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > LoZ: TP Points: 355/480

I usually go with the update closest to the hour, it seems the most fair IMO.

Good, someone else who does it the same way as me now. Leon doesn't seem to do it the same way as me and if I were doing an hourly trend chart and someone else decides to update it for me later on, they would need to know how I calculated my trends so far. That's why I think it's important to set a standard as to how trend charts are done.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

Brawl's got a hell of a hole to dig out of, but it's not completely dead.

but it almost is!
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg

At this point, Brawl > MGS4 or TP > Brawl would be epic comebacks. The only problem is that the ASV would have to commit to one or the other...and of all the voting time periods, ASV is the one least likely to actually do that. IMO, anyway.

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formerly known as The_LeppreKhan
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374

Actually what would be fantastic is both games coming back

then MGS4 wins the night vote...securing my MGS4 > TP bracket pick and providing an epic match to boot

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formerly known as The_LeppreKhan
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374

Let me guess Luster- OCD.

Anyway, people always bring up the Twilight Princess will dilute such and such trend's notion, but it's a very false notion. Twilight Princess will hurt Brawl's ASV, but it'll hurt MGS4's too; in the end the LFF is irrelevant for trends.

What does matter is that because of strong opponents like TP, Brawl and MGS4 are at lower percentages, making comebacks more difficult. Still, 1600 is doable I think. Brawl won't go up as much as usual but MGS4 will tank hard.
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Brawl better come back! If MGS4 ruins this contest for me I'm never playing it out of principle.
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Oh, sorry, I got distracted by FastFalcon.
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=169

TP > Brawl is really not happening, considering Brawl's day vote.

Brawl > MGS4 on the other hand is a pretty real possibility. Comebacks of this magnitude (comparatively) have been pulled off before. And these guys are pretty polarized trend-wise.

I'd give SSBB around a 40% chance here.
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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino

Anyway, people always bring up the Twilight Princess will dilute such and such trend's notion, but it's a very false notion. Twilight Princess will hurt Brawl's ASV, but it'll hurt MGS4's too; in the end the LFF is irrelevant for trends.

Oh my God people still believe this? That never made any sense, and it's been proven wrong time and again. MGS4 is in for a world of pain in a couple of hours.
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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino

I personally think the afterschool vote is getting weaker as more and more people are out of school. MGS would normally make a killing during this time but it's only stalling. I think Brawl could cut a thousand votes off this lead by 3pm, but 1600 is really pushing it.
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg

Let me guess Luster- OCD.

Shut up.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

owned
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

I'm not too sure about that. RBY did pretty well to go from 40-60 hours in the late night to stalling FFX with the ASV yesterday. And RBY's day vote isn't that good; certainly not SSBB good. And MGS4's is probably worse than FFX's.
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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino

How is it LFF?? I thought that only applied to a SIGNIFICANTLY weaker opponent who wouldn't have gotten as many votes without the stronger same-fanbase game in the match (i.e. Zero-Megaman).

This is not LFF; this is two strong games with the same fanbase splitting votes, not TP leeching votes that it otherwise wouldn't have gotten. This is the strongest ASV competitor that Brawl has faced yet. I wouldn't even call it a bold prediction to say that this match will result in Brawl's worst ASV of the contest. Seriously, who has it had to compete with for the ASV at any point in this contest? GTAIV? The highly disappointing Galaxy?

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formerly known as The_LeppreKhan
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374

With the big asv comebacks this week, how can you say its getting weaker?
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

Oh my God people still believe this? That never made any sense, and it's been proven wrong time and again.

I know right? Like the time that SMW didn't split any ASV votes at all with SMB3 and totally didn't let Zelda make a comeback?

LFF is questionable at best, I agree. But you're a bit silly if you think Brawl is THAT much stronger than TP.

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formerly known as The_LeppreKhan
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374

With the big asv comebacks this week, how can you say its getting weaker?

I didn't say the ASV was weaker, just that Brawl's share of the ASV will be weaker in this match than in any of its previous matches. As I pointed out before, I can't think of any game Brawl has faced yet with as good an ASV as TP.

Of the Smash-Mario-Zelda ASV giants, the only game from those series that Brawl has faced to this point is Galaxy. Not exactly a juggernaut.

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formerly known as The_LeppreKhan
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374

From: Julian_Caesar | #347
With the big asv comebacks this week, how can you say its getting weaker?

I didn't say the ASV was weaker, just that Brawl's share of the ASV will be weaker in this match than in any of its previous matches. As I pointed out before, I can't think of any game Brawl has faced yet with as good an ASV as TP.

Of the Smash-Mario-Zelda ASV giants, the only game from those series that Brawl has faced to this point is Galaxy. Not exactly a juggernaut.

I was responding to Tranny actually since he said the ASV has been getting weaker recently
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

Some cuts going down by Brawl the past bunch of updates. I'm starting to get nervous. <___<
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Rs Name: Igglybuff138 - Skill Total - 1830+ - Combat level 119 - 283/283 Quest Points -
BGE Contest Score: 313 (Today: MGS4 > Brawl)

I was responding to Tranny actually since he said the ASV has been getting weaker recently

Oh.

lol

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formerly known as The_LeppreKhan
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374