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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 743

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:24:34 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #200
So Luster are you saying that MGS4 isn't pulling away fast enough on this night vote?

In the 3-way GotY final, MGS4 lost to Brawl by 2492 after building up a 755 vote lead overnight. Over a 3000 vote swing there. In the 2-way GotY final, MGS4 lost by 4260 after getting a 636 vote lead.


Yeah, MGS4 needs at LEAST 3000 to win here, imo. And its not gaining fast enough to get that.
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hochiminhX | Posted 6/4/2009 10:24:50 PM | message detail
In the 3-way GotY final, MGS4 lost to Brawl by 2492 after building up a 755 vote lead overnight. Over a 3000 vote swing there. In the 2-way GotY final, MGS4 lost by 4260 after getting a 636 vote lead.


Logical follicle. If MGS4 builds up a 2000 vote lead tonight which it will, the match won't swing against it by 3000 votes like it would if it only built a lead of 500.
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Master Moltar | Posted 6/4/2009 10:24:57 PM | message detail
i see some bitter mgs3 fanboyz

time to accept the truth mgs4 superior
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:25:52 PM | message detail
I think people are overestimating that. Yes, Brawl swung 4000 votes before, but that's because it wasn't down 4000. If it had been down 4000, no way it would've done it. It's the same reason RBY basically stalled FFX for the last 10 hours of the match. MGS4 can win even if it only has a 1500 vote lead.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 6/4/2009 10:26:06 PM | message detail
Perhaps, but here in this match, Zelda is in Brawls way here, so MGS4 could build a more significant lead and Brawl losing some comeback potential.

Guess we'll have to wait until the morning to see what the situation will look like for it.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:26:28 PM | message detail

From: Master Moltar | #203
i see some bitter mgs3 fanboyz

time to accept the truth mgs4 superior


does mgs4 have the boss

no it does not
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 10:27:00 PM | message detail
But what if the winner changes between rounds? The loser is always going to have a bigger "shift" than the winner under your system. Subtracting percentages has its flaws too, but always gives the same result no matter who you project through.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:27:05 PM | message detail
MGS4 has lots of Boss references, at least.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:27:18 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #204
I think people are overestimating that. Yes, Brawl swung 4000 votes before, but that's because it wasn't down 4000. If it had been down 4000, no way it would've done it. It's the same reason RBY basically stalled FFX for the last 10 hours of the match. MGS4 can win even if it only has a 1500 vote lead.


I think its a mute point, its not gonna even get close to 1500 before the brawl onslaught begins
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:28:20 PM | message detail
FFX's lead on RBY at this time: 240
MGS4's lead on Brawl now: 272

It can definitely get to 1500.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:29:05 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #210
FFX's lead on RBY at this time: 240
MGS4's lead on Brawl now: 272

It can definitely get to 1500.


mgs4 dosen't really have that great of a night vote.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:29:30 PM | message detail
Its night vote isn't that great, true, but Brawl's night vote is worse than Pokemon's.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 10:30:18 PM | message detail
It's doing about as well as FFX was on RBY last night. SSB's deep night vote is legendarily bad- despite SSBM's stronger ASV, RBY was at 58.12% on it at this time last night and ended up at 58.96%). Of course, MGS4 shouldn't have nearly as amazing a night/morning vote as FFX, but it also has a big cushion to work with- FFX won with like 53%.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:30:23 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3501&type=2&seconds=60&max=0
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3504&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

Meh, debatable.
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transience | Posted 6/4/2009 10:31:18 PM | message detail
what the hell is a mute point
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:31:36 PM | message detail
Yeah, the big difference to me isn't the night vote; it's the morning vote. FFX has one, MGS4 doesn't.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/4/2009 10:31:40 PM | message detail
Yeah, If MGS4 wants to build a 1500 vote lead, it needs like a 57-43 advantage over Brawl or better with the night. But MGS4 hasn't really managed much of a leap between the first couple hours and the night vote in any of its matches. So going from 52% now to 57%-58% with the night seems unlikely. Though if it does somehow, it has a good shot of winning since in its last encounter with Brawl it only managed less than a 10% swing from best to worst times. So Brawl only winning the ASV 52-48 while losing ground the rest of the match would mean MGS4 is in good position to win.


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TheRye | Posted 6/4/2009 10:31:50 PM | message detail
I think Albion meant "moot"
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:31:58 PM | message detail
It's a moo point. It's like a cow's opinion. Doesn't mean anything.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 10:32:36 PM | message detail
I don't like how MGS4 is doing worse with this second hour than the first hour though. It's still got half an hour to improve, but if not....against an SSB game, failing to improve with the second hour is pretty shocking.
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transience | Posted 6/4/2009 10:33:06 PM | message detail
Brawl doesn't have Melee's stupidly weak night vote. it's bad, but not laughable.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:33:13 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #220
I don't like how MGS4 is doing worse with this second hour than the first hour though. It's still got half an hour to improve, but if not....against an SSB game, failing to improve with the second hour is pretty shocking.


Not really too shocking... as mentioned earlier, mgs4 is mainly a power hour game afterall
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:33:24 PM | message detail
MGS1 didn't even start doing anything to RBY for another hour or so. MGS4 isn't gonna be able to have a 4000 vote lead by 2:30, that's for sure.
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transience | Posted 6/4/2009 10:33:48 PM | message detail
but anyway, I thought Brawl was golden because in every MGS4/Brawl match last January, MGS4 started out with the lead before Brawl came roaring back. MGS4 winning the power hour is not that surprising.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/4/2009 10:33:55 PM | message detail
Yeah, rather than 52%, I guess it's more like 51.5%
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/4/2009 10:35:00 PM | message detail
FFX's lead on RBY at this time: 240
MGS4's lead on Brawl now: 272

It can definitely get to 1500.

Its night vote isn't that great, true, but Brawl's night vote is worse than Pokemon's.


If MGS4's night vote isn't as that great as you say it is, then MGS4 won't reach 1500 overnight. I think FFX has a stronger night vote than MGS4. FFX actually got a 30% hour in the last hour of the night vote, then slowly dropped off through the BSV and DSV until we got to the ASV, where it was getting some 21% hours.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:36:29 PM | message detail
I doubt MGS4 will get to 1500, but it can. That's all I'm saying. It's on FFX's pace right now, though it probably won't maintain it.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 6/4/2009 10:37:26 PM | message detail
Now Albion, as much as I liked MGS3, i was rather afraid of Big Boss' appetite.

I mean Para-Medic had to shout at him so he wouldn't eat the patrol dog.....

And the Colonel had to give him a direct order not to eat the "rare creature" (i forget how its name is spelled).

He has a voracious appetite and that scares the hell outta me.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:40:43 PM | message detail
3 straight SSBB cuts
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 10:43:48 PM | message detail
At the 1 hour mark:

Team Nintendo - 49.64%
The Resistance - 50.36%

Now:

Team Nintendo - 50.02%
The Resistance - 49.98%

What happened to the Nintendo Power Hour? Do early voters hate new Nintendo?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/4/2009 10:45:25 PM | message detail
MGS4 > MGS3. Fact.
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Lopen | Posted 6/4/2009 10:47:36 PM | message detail
You liked Raging Raven. I still can't get over that.

Pretty much nulls your opinions on the series tbqh.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/4/2009 10:48:19 PM | message detail
RE4 cuts Brawl and TP at the same time, while TP also gets to cut Brawl too.
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Darklurkr | Posted 6/4/2009 10:51:48 PM | message detail
Finally some respect for a great game in the contest. I'd rather have MGS4>RE4>TP>SSBM but hey I'll take the best game winning.

MGS4 > MGS3
But MGS3 Boss Team > MGS4 Boss Team I think this is a fact. Just given way more character development
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:52:13 PM | message detail
then brawl cuts 17 on mgs4
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 11:02:27 PM | message detail
in the last 40 minutes, mgs4 has gained a whopping 7 votes
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/4/2009 11:04:33 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | Posted: 6/5/2009 1:47:36 AM | #232
You liked Raging Raven. I still can't get over that.

Pretty much nulls your opinions on the series tbqh.


Shut up, that fight was fun the second time. Next you'll be telling me I can't like the Devil May Cry games because I enjoyed the Nightmare fights.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:06:19 PM | message detail
MGS4 not looking very good right now.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 11:10:24 PM | message detail
I'm calling for this to be an easy 2000+ win for Brawl
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/4/2009 11:19:48 PM | message detail
MGS4 not looking very good right now.

It did worse last hour than in the Power Hour.

MGS4/Brawl by the hour:

Time
1:00 | 51.60%
2:00 | 50.96%


If MGS4 can't start pulling any 52% hours later in the night, then it's in trouble later on once we hit the morning vote.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 11:22:44 PM | message detail
Well its looking a lot better this hour so far. Its gained more in the first 20 minutes then ti did the entire last hour.
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transience | Posted 6/4/2009 11:26:13 PM | message detail
Brawl's gotta be the favourite here. MGS4 will certainly kick it into gear during the dead hours but probably gets killed during the day.

should be interesting though.. TP is also a day vote beast. not quite like Brawl but still pretty good.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 11:27:42 PM | message detail

From: transience | #242
Brawl's gotta be the favourite here. MGS4 will certainly kick it into gear during the dead hours but probably gets killed during the day.

should be interesting though.. TP is also a day vote beast. not quite like Brawl but still pretty good.


If you're hinting TP might beat MGS4.. no way. its down too much
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/4/2009 11:29:27 PM | message detail
If it can continue on with the pace of those last 20 minutes and then get even better with the dead hours, MGS4 will have actually entered the territory of winning possiblity
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transience | Posted 6/4/2009 11:30:15 PM | message detail
MGS always goes wild during those 4-6 hours. check out Liquid/Alucard or RE4/MGS3 for proof there.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 11:37:19 PM | message detail
I'm liking RE4 to take a lead over TP before morning. It'll be killed during day though
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/4/2009 11:43:14 PM | message detail
It's amusing how FF7 and OoT are just on such a different level. It's even more overwhelming than Cloud and Link in the character contest
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/5/2009 12:03:13 AM | message detail
54.77% against Brawl that hour. Kind of funny how it pretty much matched what Brawl got against it in the last round in that same hour.
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Smurf FAQs | Posted 6/5/2009 12:42:28 AM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #201
Yeah, MGS4 needs at LEAST 3000 to win here, imo. And its not gaining fast enough to get that.


http://img.imgcake.com/Smurf/albionimg.jpg


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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/5/2009 1:02:56 AM | message detail
56.04%...

It's like on the very verge of putting up good enough numbers
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