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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 743

red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:27:15 PM | message detail
RE4 cuts TP.

Albion, looking at that chart.....MGS4 really does have a very good power hour and much worse overnight than the other MGS games. RE4 might end up surprisingly close, or rather everyone in this poll might end up surprisingly close.
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Lopen | Posted 6/4/2009 9:27:42 PM | message detail
Uhhh it's the power hour. I wouldn't count RE4 out of 2nd (yes 2nd) place just yet.
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The Real Truth | Posted 6/4/2009 9:27:47 PM | message detail
Come on MGS4 > RE4 even though RE4 is better, lets go bracket.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 9:28:27 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #101
RE4 cuts TP.

Albion, looking at that chart.....MGS4 really does have a very good power hour and much worse overnight than the other MGS games. RE4 might end up surprisingly close, or rather everyone in this poll might end up surprisingly close.


yeah, and it just dies at day. I wouldn't count it over even if MGS4 is up 3k going into the asv.
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ff6man | Posted 6/4/2009 9:28:28 PM | message detail
32 points (hopefully) today.... 64 points tomorrow... my whole tournament relies on MGS4 > OOT happening next round... Melee was supposed to be there instead of FFX though...
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BGE Contest Score: 313 (Today: MGS4 > Brawl)
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/4/2009 9:28:43 PM | message detail
I wonder if MGS4 would actually hurt FF7 more than FFX.

If so, I'm all for MGS4 in the finals.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:29:02 PM | message detail
RE4's at...43.29% on MGS4 now.

Yes, MGS4 has a better power hour than Crono! RE4's day vote is better than Vincent's too!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 9:30:10 PM | message detail

From: ff6man | #105
32 points (hopefully) today.... 64 points tomorrow... my whole tournament relies on MGS4 > OOT happening next round... Melee was supposed to be there instead of FFX though...


Best not to fool yourself into thinking there's a possibility. Ocarina would wipe MGS4 if there were two other Zelda games in the poll.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 9:30:57 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3504&region=US

Pokemon beat FFX in America, btw.
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deadeyedllv | Posted 6/4/2009 9:31:09 PM | message detail
I haven't been paying close attention to the last few matches, has the ASV noticeably changed in the last few days due to a majority of schools being out for the summer? I live in Vegas and today was the last day of school for all elementary, middle, and high schools.
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/4/2009 9:31:23 PM | message detail

From: ff6man | #105
32 points (hopefully) today.... 64 points tomorrow... my whole tournament relies on MGS4 > OOT happening next round... Melee was supposed to be there instead of FFX though...


It's more feasible than what I'd need to win, at least. Good luck with that!
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transients | Posted 6/4/2009 9:31:41 PM | message detail
I think this is our first real showing of LFF outside of the same series. it only took us 60 days, but we got here!
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ZFS | Posted 6/4/2009 9:32:01 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3504&region=ASI

asia once again pulling through

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Karma Hunter | Posted 6/4/2009 9:32:04 PM | message detail
Ocarina would wipe MGS4 if there were two other Zelda games in the poll.

Metal Gear Solid 4
Ocarina of Time
Ocarina of Time
Ocarina of Time

...what now
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:32:40 PM | message detail
Only way that was ever going to happen was with massive bandwagoning. And I mean more like L-Block than Snake last year, who after all broke 43% on Cloud without any bandwagoning. The game with the best chance of taking advantage of a bandwagon was RBY, because it's both stronger than the games left that could be bandwagoned, and its probably more independent of FFVII than any of them (no, OOT is not independent of FFVII).
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transients | Posted 6/4/2009 9:32:43 PM | message detail
OOT would still find a way to win.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 9:32:52 PM | message detail
I think this is our first real showing of LFF outside of the same series.

Yesterday?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 9:33:19 PM | message detail

From: deadeyedllv | #110
I haven't been paying close attention to the last few matches, has the ASV noticeably changed in the last few days due to a majority of schools being out for the summer? I live in Vegas and today was the last day of school for all elementary, middle, and high schools.


Got AIM? I've been entertaining a move to Vegas and would like to ask a resident how they feel about the city.
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transients | Posted 6/4/2009 9:33:21 PM | message detail
that's SFF, not LFF. unless you think OOT should have scored 45-50%?
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creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 9:33:23 PM | message detail
I don't quite get why people are acting like this is over. The night/day disparity here is huge. MGS4 could be up like 1000 votes by morning, maybe push that up to 1500 with the DSV - yet still lose handily.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/4/2009 9:33:24 PM | message detail
Yesterday was SFF.

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syco_coaster | Posted 6/4/2009 9:34:03 PM | message detail
Isn't Brawl going to have a disgustingly huge day vote and ASV? I don't understand how when the match is running so close that people are saying MGS4 has it and that it's slaughtering.

Also, MGS4 > FFX is looking good next round.
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Today's pick: SSB Brawl > MGS 4
transients | Posted 6/4/2009 9:34:39 PM | message detail
yeah, this is still a match, but Brawl is going to fall HARD overnight. MGS4 could be up 1500 by morning, 2500 by 3pm.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/4/2009 9:34:47 PM | message detail
I don't quite get why people are acting like this is over. The night/day disparity here is huge. MGS4 could be up like 1000 votes by morning, maybe push that up to 1500 with the DSV - yet still lose handily.

Except I think it's up by 2500+ or so. Brawl's night vote is awful.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 9:35:35 PM | message detail
that's SFF, not LFF. unless you think OOT should have scored 45-50%?

Melee/RBY? RBY did do noticeably worse against OoT this time.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 9:36:00 PM | message detail
Ugh, it's truly a two horse race now.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:36:02 PM | message detail
Smash has a huge ASV, but it usually finishes a tad below what it ends the power hour with- that's how bad its overnight and DSV are. Any other MGS game would have this locked up, but MGS4 might not if it's as strong in the power hour tonight as it was last round.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 6/4/2009 9:37:34 PM | message detail
Wasn't MGS3 + RE4 LFF? And KH + FFX?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 9:37:40 PM | message detail
Man, what was up with 4's awful board vote? Struggling with RE4 and TP two minutes in, and now kicking their asses?
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:37:50 PM | message detail
Yesterday was 3-way Nintendo LFF, yes. I mean, SFF implies the existence of LFF.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 9:38:01 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #124
I don't quite get why people are acting like this is over. The night/day disparity here is huge. MGS4 could be up like 1000 votes by morning, maybe push that up to 1500 with the DSV - yet still lose handily.

Except I think it's up by 2500+ or so. Brawl's night vote is awful.


Even 2500 is still up in the air going into the asv
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transients | Posted 6/4/2009 9:38:04 PM | message detail
Melee/RBY? RBY did do noticeably worse against OoT this time.

nothing like this.
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xyzzy
red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:38:53 PM | message detail
And there's been lots of cases of LFF all contest. Just because none of them were huge splits outside of FF1/FF4 doesn't mean they didn't exist.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 9:39:33 PM | message detail
Yeah, nothing like this, but still.
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transients | Posted 6/4/2009 9:39:45 PM | message detail
hence "our first real showing". this is the first one that's really turned a match. a few games did like 1-2% worse before; Brawl is currently underperforming by a full 10%.
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xyzzy
red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:40:56 PM | message detail
TP looks finished here.
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Scott_Pilgrim | Posted 6/4/2009 9:42:21 PM | message detail
MGS4 slowing down let's go Brawl!
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deadeyedllv | Posted 6/4/2009 9:42:35 PM | message detail
Got AIM? I've been entertaining a move to Vegas and would like to ask a resident how they feel about the city.

I recently bought a new computer and haven't re-installed any of those yet. To be honest, I haven't really missed them and wasn't planning on re-installing them any time soon. I would be more than happy to chat about Vegas with you however any other way you might want (email, creating a topic on the regional boards, whatever). I'm gonna be leaving in a few minutes to see Star Trek tonight.
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TheRye | Posted 6/4/2009 9:43:04 PM | message detail
Brawl slowing things down... MGS last 5 updates:
+43, +40, +24, +21, +13
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creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 9:43:05 PM | message detail
Except I think it's up by 2500+ or so. Brawl's night vote is awful.

MGS4's night vote isn't really all that though, as others have mentioned.

Yesterday was 3-way Nintendo LFF, yes. I mean, SFF implies the existence of LFF.

Typically, but not always.
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ZFS | Posted 6/4/2009 9:43:07 PM | message detail
I don't know that last round was entirely fair to MGS4. Brawl not only stood out like crazy, but MGS4 had to fight with two other games that would be taking votes from it. Brawl is still stronger than MGS4, and this match is definitely LFF at work, but I dunno if Brawl's underperforming as badly last round would say it is.

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creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 9:44:29 PM | message detail
hence "our first real showing". this is the first one that's really turned a match. a few games did like 1-2% worse before; Brawl is currently underperforming by a full 10%.

red's theory of "newer Nintendo has a more limited pool of voters than oldschool Nintendo" theory confirmed indeed.
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TheRye | Posted 6/4/2009 9:45:31 PM | message detail
CUT
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 9:45:53 PM | message detail
yeah, Brawl isn't done here yet
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:46:01 PM | message detail
And Brawl cuts. We may have a match here.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 9:46:05 PM | message detail
Here we go.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Scott_Pilgrim | Posted 6/4/2009 9:46:05 PM | message detail
C-c-c-cut!
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Oh, sorry, I got distracted by FastFalcon.
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=169
creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 9:47:25 PM | message detail
And Brawl cuts. We may have a match here.

I'm thinking Brawl wins with 1000+ votes actually. But we could see some interesting stuff along the way.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:48:14 PM | message detail
I think Brawl Snake just got some intel on MGS4's weakness and is relaying to the rest of the brawl roster to prepare for a vote counterattack.
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creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 9:48:47 PM | message detail
It's funny how Melee~=Brawl, yet Brawl should do look way better against Ocarina then Melee did, because there's more of a generational gap there.
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