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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 743

LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 8:28:25 PM | message detail
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/4/2009 8:30:22 PM | message detail
http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/6480/19982009.gif

ART.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
paulg235 | Posted 6/4/2009 8:31:37 PM | message detail
Alright, we get it. It's Art.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/4/2009 8:32:08 PM | message detail
as long as somebody does!

some people deny my talent
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 8:32:14 PM | message detail
Don't worry. He just wants you to say it's bad so he can rave about it.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/4/2009 8:33:21 PM | message detail
WHAT?!

BAD

FFFFFFFF

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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
ZFS | Posted 6/4/2009 8:34:01 PM | message detail
Big Boss boost book it

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/4/2009 8:35:55 PM | message detail
Hmmm, I wonder if the new games actually will effect anything.

I bet Metal Gear Solid Arcade will! Who isn't pumped for that one?!
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
XxSoulxX | Posted 6/4/2009 9:08:16 PM | message detail
Aww yeah Top 3! First time ever reaching so high on this.

Come on TP > RE4, FF7 > LttP, OoT > FFX, FF7 > OoT!
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Good Times,
Great Memories
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/4/2009 9:08:51 PM | message detail
Metal Gear Hype Boost Confirmed

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:09:33 PM | message detail
This update is going to be epic...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > LoZ: TP Points: 355/480
XxSoulxX | Posted 6/4/2009 9:09:38 PM | message detail
Zelda Wii Hype Boost Confirmed!!
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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 9:09:40 PM | message detail
I think people are just underestimating TP here. It's a top 15-20 game, and this match basically proves it. Brawl wasn't going to wreck it. There was no reason to believe that.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
masseffect90 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:09:41 PM | message detail
If the final is FF7/FFX/OoT/LttP, does FFX hurt FF7 more, or does LttP hurt OoT more?

Or does full on " Zelda vs Final Fantasy kick in", and nobody votes for FFX or LttP?
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:15 PM | message detail
RE4 done
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:16 PM | message detail
MEGATON
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
ZFS | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:19 PM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid 4

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:20 PM | message detail
HOLY VOTE SWING
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Wylvane's current main account.
Master Moltar | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:20 PM | message detail
all hail snake and mgs4
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 60 - Bracket: MGS4 > TP - Vote: MGS4 (359/480)
PegasusLover123 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:23 PM | message detail
Snake Stealthily sneaks into the lead!

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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
XxSoulxX | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:24 PM | message detail
Game.

**** RE4!
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"Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:28 PM | message detail
METAL GEAR?!?!?!

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:28 PM | message detail
yeah, brawl sucks
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
RockMFR 5 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:30 PM | message detail
OH LAWD
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:36 PM | message detail
Remember pre-contest people were saying RE4 would beat Brawl?

'lol RE4'
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http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j69/War13104/CenaJFrog.gif
hey look i'm war and i'm stupid - WVI
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:37 PM | message detail
Wow, RE4 collapsed while MGS4 took first place.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
GrapefruitKing | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:39 PM | message detail
yeah, I told you RE4 had no chance
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Today's prediction: Browl 28.88% - Nanomachines 25.33% - Twilight 24.66% - Mistah Kennedy 21.13%
Status:
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:40 PM | message detail
Don't die RE4

also lol Brawl.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > LoZ: TP Points: 355/480
red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:41 PM | message detail
No, RE4!

Well, looks like MGS4 > Brawl will be our result, barring anything really surprising.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
Lopen | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:42 PM | message detail
Metal Gear !?!

(Augh RE4 why)
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
transients | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:47 PM | message detail
aww yeah there goes MGS4

I don't think Melee would be wrecking this poll. it got 33% on a weaker poll where it was the only Nintendo option.
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xyzzy
hochiminhX | Posted 6/4/2009 9:10:55 PM | message detail
Yeah, today is MGS4 > SSBB. Next.


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I will bury you.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 9:11:01 PM | message detail
Brawl is splitting with TP here. This is pretty obvious, I think.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
shadow8021 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:11:02 PM | message detail
Super Smash Bros. LAWL
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2008 Hickory Cross Country
Becoming One
paulg235 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:11:21 PM | message detail
TP could still advance. It's within 100 votes.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
ZFS | Posted 6/4/2009 9:11:37 PM | message detail
Let's get TP over Brawl here and we could have something amazing

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
transients | Posted 6/4/2009 9:11:49 PM | message detail
41 trannyscience 356 Final Fantasy VII

...what
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xyzzy
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/4/2009 9:11:54 PM | message detail
This match is ridiculous.

At least if MGS4 wins, it's a chance to regain points until my bracket is destroyed!
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Wylvane's current main account.
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 6/4/2009 9:12:19 PM | message detail
Wow, so is Mario Galaxy seriously that weak? Such a shame too since I love the game.

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 9:12:28 PM | message detail

From: transients | #031
aww yeah there goes MGS4

I don't think Melee would be wrecking this poll. it got 33% on a weaker poll where it was the only Nintendo option.


I guess we'll wait two days. If FFX beats MGS4 handily, I doubt you can call this the stronger poll. Also, the percentage discrepancy is too big. What if Brawl only finishes at like 29%? These three would have to be a fair bit stronger, and I don't buy that.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
Master Moltar | Posted 6/4/2009 9:12:39 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #036
Let's get TP over Brawl here and we could have something amazing


I'm finally on the leaderboard and that would probably put me in the top 10 i'll accept this
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 60 - Bracket: MGS4 > TP - Vote: MGS4 (359/480)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 9:13:15 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #036
Let's get TP over Brawl here and we could have something amazing


You got yerself a deal buddy.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
ff6man | Posted 6/4/2009 9:13:29 PM | message detail
Come on MGS4 over Brawllllllllllllll!!!!!!
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Rs Name: Igglybuff138 - Skill Total - 1830+ - Combat level 119 - 283/283 Quest Points -
BGE Contest Score: 313 (Today: MGS4 > Brawl)
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/4/2009 9:13:33 PM | message detail
Come on FFX SFFing MGS4 and Brawl being stronger than OoT!

My bracket's so ****ed.
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Wylvane's current main account.
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/4/2009 9:13:36 PM | message detail
Let's get TP over Brawl here and we could have something amazing

I like the cut of your jib.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 9:13:45 PM | message detail
Nearly 10% more had FFVII in the semis than OoT.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:13:45 PM | message detail
Needs more RE4 IMO.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > LoZ: TP Points: 355/480
__hiei__ | Posted 6/4/2009 9:13:57 PM | message detail
gamefaqs....has changed.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/4/2009 9:14:05 PM | message detail
Time to start the MGS4 bandwagon and make Menji's prediction come true
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Scott_Pilgrim | Posted 6/4/2009 9:14:08 PM | message detail
Let's not go nuts people, Brawl > MGS4 is still a lock.

Yes I am just trying to make myself feel better.
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Oh, sorry, I got distracted by FastFalcon.
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=169