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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 742

LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 8:27:23 PM | message detail
the only one I saw as being decent was the FF10 one because I didn't think they were splitting too hard -- that is, unless you think KH goes for 60%+ on MGS2.

Even going by the round two performance, KH doesn't get 60% on MGS2.
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lightsout06 | Posted 6/4/2009 8:35:06 PM | message detail
the contest should not have a them ordered by year. it would a lot more interesting seeing the newer games against the older ones early on.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 8:36:02 PM | message detail
The only reason Brawl might resist SFF better than Melee is being on the bottom of 2-way SFF as opposed to 3-way SFF. Games that are at the bottom of a chain have a tendency to collapse (last place factor, and it tends to exaggerrate SFF). Of course, that's not happening because RE4 and MGS4 are advancing tonight due to massive New Nintendo LFF!

It's very likely that FFVII puts up some scary numbers next round (thinking 45-47% is possible), but OOT could be in that area too, now that I think about it. If it's the only Nintendo game, it gains an LFF advantage on top of its huge strength advantage, against a much weaker field than FFVII's, though they'll overlap less. Either TP or Brawl (especially TP) probably gets destroyed with the sword of SFF if they are there.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/4/2009 8:37:31 PM | message detail
Wait, may I take a look at the 2007-2009 x-stats?

Tomorrow's match...well, all that I know is that Brawl win win, which I'm not a fan of. 2nd place could go anywhere. So I write off Twilight Princess first; it didn't do so hot on RE4 when it had to share votes with KH2, and now it has to go against Brawl. Yeah, slim last place. It then comes down to the two 4s. I have Resident Evil 4 advancing in my bracket, but MGS4 has the name value and such, and should place 2nd. Let's give RE4 the nod for being the only game that got here without name value! Time for longshot percentages!

Zelda: Twilight Princess - 21%, Resident Evil 4 - 22%, Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 34%, Metal Gear Solid 4 - 23%

Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Brawl > Metal Gear Solid 4
Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Brawl > Resident Evil 4
Favorites: Resident Evil 4 > Metal Gear Solid 4
Favorites Bracket: Resident Evil 4 > Half-Life 2
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/4/2009 8:38:13 PM | message detail
Just got on again and saw that RBY basically stalled FFX for the entire ASV and SNV. RBY barely lost the ASV, but may win the SNV though. Currently, it's winning the SNV by 38 votes.
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creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 8:39:48 PM | message detail
Games that are at the bottom of a chain have a tendency to collapse (last place factor, and it tends to exaggerrate SFF)

Yeah but it's clear, relatively speaking, that Melee ain't at the bottom of any chain, it just got Ocarina'd.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 8:40:35 PM | message detail
Bottom of the Nintendo chain, I mean, not overall weakest game.
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MetricTrout | Posted 6/4/2009 8:43:52 PM | message detail
What do you mean Melee has not looked impressive this contest?

Doubling Halo with Wind Waker in the poll is not impressive? Doubling Diablo 2 in a non-SFF match is not impressive? Beating FFX worse than ever is not impressive?

Melee looked pretty damn strong this contest. It just has no ability to resist Double SFF. But what do you expect from a game that is basically Nintendo fanservice and no longer has an active fanbase?
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 8:46:25 PM | message detail
After reading the Analysis Crew I'm surprised at the support for Brawl in first. Wind Waker caused Melee to only get 57% on Diablo II then in the next round it got 67%.

I also noticed that all four games are board favourites (I guess RE4 will get the short end of the stick)
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 8:47:06 PM | message detail
That's what I thought you meant, it's just not likely to be true from the evidence.

For tomorrow I'm thinking TP holds up well to Brawl, don't see much SFF there. TP and MGS4 should be close, and given the night/day disparities I think it'll be up in the air for a while. Might be our, what, 3rd real good match of the contest? (wow have we really had so few real good matches?)
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 8:48:49 PM | message detail
Doubling Halo with Wind Waker in the poll is not impressive? Doubling Diablo 2 in a non-SFF match is not impressive? Beating FFX worse than ever is not impressive?

Those games, FFX excepted, are all weak. Did you see Starcraft? Metroid Prime? And Melee should beat FFX worse than ever considering how Nintendo has gained relative to Square over the past 5 years and that KH was in the poll!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 8:48:51 PM | message detail
(wow have we really had so few real good matches?)

Yes.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 6/4/2009 8:49:46 PM | message detail
So Pokemon RBY is eliminated here, but it gets respect for getting this far in the contest, although its quite the shock to see it look better than melee which absolutely got pounded this round.

Indeed Brawl is the game to watch in the upcoming match. We haven't seen its true strength yet, but many were shocked when it meteor smashed Galaxy into the ground.....

The other 3 contestants also have a shot at placing, but the question is how much will TP and Brawl affect each other?

Can Snake or Leon take advantage of this situation?
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MetricTrout | Posted 6/4/2009 8:49:49 PM | message detail
Twilight Princess is not a board favorite. It absolutely sucked during the Power Hour in its first match with Resident Evil 4.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 8:53:02 PM | message detail
Last round it did well.

I'm thinking SSBB > MGS4 >= TP > RE4 in terms of board vote.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
MetricTrout | Posted 6/4/2009 8:55:56 PM | message detail
Before the contest I predicted that Galaxy would be stronger than Brawl/TP. I noticed that the second part of that has not been disproven yet.

Come on, TP. Pull a SSBM here and get SFFed into the ground to make Galaxy look better!
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 8:56:28 PM | message detail
The second part has essentially been disproven. There's no reason to think Galaxy beats TP.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/4/2009 8:57:13 PM | message detail
I'm thinking SSBB > MGS4 >= TP > RE4 in terms of board vote.

Though RE4 is probably going to do worst here, that's what I'm voting for to try and keep my RE4 > MGS4 upset alive.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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transients | Posted 6/4/2009 8:57:21 PM | message detail
there was no reason beforehand, either.
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hochiminhX | Posted 6/4/2009 8:57:22 PM | message detail
Nobody likes Twilight Princess. Time for it to get dead last.

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transients | Posted 6/4/2009 8:58:22 PM | message detail
MGS4 with the board vote. TP with the anti-board vote.
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xyzzy
MetricTrout | Posted 6/4/2009 8:58:28 PM | message detail
What if TP scores 25% or so on Brawl tomorrow? Could happen!

(Use of exclamation mark indicates that it probably will not)
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 6/4/2009 8:58:58 PM | message detail
Any chance TP advances?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 8:59:10 PM | message detail
It's got a decent shot.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 8:59:16 PM | message detail
Resident Evil 4 to win every voting block write this on MIIIIIIIIIIIIIKE's tombstone.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 8:59:16 PM | message detail
Hochi has spoken. TP is doomed.

Now, Brawl, time to bring 3 years of hype to a conclusion with the biggest flop since Magus/Knuckles!
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 6/4/2009 8:59:31 PM | message detail
I wonder if Brawls presence will sap some of Snake's strength,.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 9:00:17 PM | message detail
Zelda: Twilight Princess 0%

0
Resident Evil 4 0%

0
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 83.33%

5
Metal Gear Solid 4 16.67%

1
TOTAL VOTES 6

Holy Brawl. First MGS4 vote here.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Master Moltar | Posted 6/4/2009 9:00:20 PM | message detail
aww yeah board vote
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 60 - Bracket: MGS4 > TP - Vote: MGS4 (359/480)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 9:00:24 PM | message detail
Zelda: Twilight Princess 14.29%

2
Resident Evil 4 7.14%

1
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 42.86%

6
Metal Gear Solid 4 35.71%

5
TOTAL VOTES 14

First RE4 vote!

Hopefully not the last!
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paulg235 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:00:27 PM | message detail
Zelda: Twilight Princess 24.44% 11
Resident Evil 4 11.11% 5
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 35.56% 16
Metal Gear Solid 4 28.89% 13
TOTAL VOTES 45

lol RE4
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
GrapefruitKing | Posted 6/4/2009 9:00:31 PM | message detail
potentially epic match alert

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Today's prediction: Browl 28.88% - Nanomachines 25.33% - Twilight 24.66% - Mistah Kennedy 21.13%
Status:
Xcarvenger | Posted 6/4/2009 9:00:32 PM | message detail
Zelda: Twilight Princess 25%

9
Resident Evil 4 13.89%

5
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 33.33%

12
Metal Gear Solid 4 27.78%

10
TOTAL VOTES 36

ohoho RE4

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 9:00:42 PM | message detail
Whoa, looks like we might have a good match on our hands!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/4/2009 9:00:46 PM | message detail
Come on close match

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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:00:57 PM | message detail
Up you go, RE4.
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:01:02 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3504&region=ASI

FFX > Pokemon RBY

lol OoT.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > LoZ: TP Points: 355/480
XxSoulxX | Posted 6/4/2009 9:01:20 PM | message detail
COME ON RE4!!
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 6/4/2009 9:01:22 PM | message detail
BTW RE4 is a lock for fourth
stop talking about it
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Today's prediction: Browl 28.88% - Nanomachines 25.33% - Twilight 24.66% - Mistah Kennedy 21.13%
Status:
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:01:25 PM | message detail
Nice to see things even.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > LoZ: TP Points: 355/480
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 9:01:31 PM | message detail
woah mgs4 in last
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 9:01:31 PM | message detail
Which one of these four warriors has the most fire in their souls?!
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paulg235 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:01:32 PM | message detail
Oh god they're all close!
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:01:37 PM | message detail
Brawl is coming out swinging!
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:01:43 PM | message detail
RE4 tied with MGS4. Just Brawl to catch now.
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/4/2009 9:01:46 PM | message detail
If TP advances with Brawl, maybe, just maybe I'll have a small chance to win this thing.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 9:01:51 PM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid 4: Bomb of the Patriots
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
MrSmartGuy | Posted 6/4/2009 9:02:04 PM | message detail
Well then, this'll be a fun poll to watch.....

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 9:02:04 PM | message detail
MGS3 could be WINNING this match, darn it!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/4/2009 9:02:04 PM | message detail
Brawl might not even advance. This is glorious.

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