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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 742

xp1337 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:35:55 AM | message detail
You can't blame GTA3 for KotOR's overperformance. Also before VC most people had GTA3 at a distant third.

In hindsight Vice City did as expected at worst and GTA4 had no problems in round 1 and even in the second round it still got a half decent percent and managed to defeat Galaxy.


You may be mistaking me. I don't have too much of a problem saying KotOR has some strength. However, I've always seen "disappointment" as a perception issue. Before the contest, saying GTA3 losing to KotOR would probably have been seen as a disappointment.

As for GTA4, yes, it advanced with no problem, but I think SF4's performance unfairly hurts its perception.

If someone said before the contest that GTA4 would double SF4, what would think?

Now, if someone said before the contest that GTA4 would double Persona 4, what would you think?

As it turned out, these were actually the same thing, which I have to imagine is overall worse than expected.

Objectively, GTA4 advanced with ease, but from a perception point of view, it looked a lot worse than it needed to, or probably even deserved to. I never said it was fair.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 11:37:10 AM | message detail
Before the contest, saying GTA3 losing to KotOR would probably have been seen as a disappointment.

I expected KOTOR to beat GTA III, but I think was in the minority there.
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:38:56 AM | message detail
Is this the NRT tournament you guys are talking about? How exactly does it work? I wasn't around for any of the previous ones.

It's two contests, the first one only has characters that have never been to a contest while the other has characters that's been to previous contests, but missed the previous two. As a board we vote for who we want to support, usually the final rounds are a round robin. At the end there's a topic where we sign up our support for the winners.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
paulg235 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:40:07 AM | message detail
Anyway, do you suppose we should abbreviate the term "Bandwagonning" to TBF/BWF like we did with like every other factor?
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The Gamer In Me
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:40:56 AM | message detail
You may be mistaking me. I don't have too much of a problem saying KotOR has some strength. However, I've always seen "disappointment" as a perception issue. Before the contest, saying GTA3 losing to KotOR would probably have been seen as a disappointment.

Sure, but when the same game leads Halo for most of the day the preception is obviously wrong.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
xp1337 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:42:45 AM | message detail
Sure, but when the same game leads Halo for most of the day the preception is obviously wrong.

It was, but personally I see "disappointment" was compared to pre-contest assumptions/belief. If you went back and looked at the contest after the fact, things change a little.

Although, I may use disappointment different than the majority.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/4/2009 11:44:45 AM | message detail
http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/6480/19982009.gif

ART.
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paulg235 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:47:42 AM | message detail
http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/6480/19982009.gif

I don't any MGS4 representation there. Otherwise, I'd give it a thumbs up.
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The Gamer In Me
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:47:48 AM | message detail
It was, but personally I see "disappointment" was compared to pre-contest assumptions/belief. If you went back and looked at the contest after the fact, things change a little.

I could also tell you that not many people expected GTA3 to be so close to Diablo II and Halo, with that logic we'll be going around in circles.

KotOR was the anomaly not GTA3.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/4/2009 11:48:01 AM | message detail

From: paulg235 | Posted: 6/4/2009 2:47:42 PM | #258
http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/6480/19982009.gif

I don't any MGS4 representation there. Otherwise, I'd give it a thumbs up.


THE BARREL, FOOL
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paulg235 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:49:00 AM | message detail
Oh. Very clever, Zen.
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ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 6/4/2009 11:52:29 AM | message detail
Blasphemy, FFX is leon's favorite game? The world's coming to an end if Squall isn't your favorite character then.

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
xp1337 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:53:13 AM | message detail
I could also tell you that not many people expected GTA3 to be so close to Diablo II and Halo, with that logic we'll be going around in circles.

We could, but since I also think that disappointment is subjective and varies on a person-to-person basis, I don't mind. I hardly expected everyone to agree on the same order or even series.

KotOR was the anomaly not GTA3.

I agree.

Again, I never said my view is exactly fair since it relies completely on pre-contest notions and doesn't adjust for unexpected performances that had nothing to do with the game(s) in question, but at the same time, I don't expect others to just agree with it either. Disappointment is just way too subjective for that.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 6/4/2009 12:17:26 PM | message detail
Looks like the ASV has arrived.

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/4/2009 12:20:09 PM | message detail
That's a DRUM CAN, Zen.

WHAT ARE YOU, BLIND? JEEEEEEEEZUS.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 12:22:35 PM | message detail
Looks like Pokemon will outperform Melee with this block (wait for the West Coast ASV aka Zelda Wrecking Train).
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/4/2009 12:25:13 PM | message detail
So FFVII got about 41% yesterday and ooT is going to get 41%.

Who is stronger atm?
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 6/4/2009 12:32:44 PM | message detail
Pokemon RBY is like 3.8k votes behind FFX, i don't see how RBY would be able to kill that sort of lead. Even Link wouldnt be able to pull that off.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 1:15:33 PM | message detail
RBY is benefitting most from the asv (beating Smash and Zelda in ASV % gain? Wow)... too bad it wasn't closer going into the asv or we may have had a match here
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 1:17:22 PM | message detail
Yeah, RBY's cut a little more than 100 within the last hour and a half. It might get the lead under 3000, but that's as far as it'll go.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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jonthomson | Posted 6/4/2009 1:44:10 PM | message detail
can we describe this effect as "holy **** wat" fanbase factor, after my vote on melee to help minor sff and shove it past whatever the non-nintendo game is in the match.

losing to pokemon. jesus.

4-way matches suck.
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Super Metroid's Path To Glory: R3 vs. A Link to the Past, FF3, Link's Awakening
Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/4/2009 1:47:37 PM | message detail
SSBM is being heavily SFF'd by OoT. Not Pokemon .If You replace OoT with some thing like MGS Melee would win this.
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jonthomson | Posted 6/4/2009 1:50:50 PM | message detail
SSBM is being heavily SFF'd by OoT. Not Pokemon .If You replace OoT with some thing like MGS Melee would win this.

yes i ****ing know that. the point is that seeing how teh pokemans are nintendo as well, how are they beating melee?
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
Super Metroid's Path To Glory: R3 vs. A Link to the Past, FF3, Link's Awakening
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 1:54:10 PM | message detail
Hot dog, Ocarina of Time. It's back to world-beating status after taking a nap that last round.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 2:02:33 PM | message detail
Actually, RBY has now cut less than 100 votes in 2 and a half hours since the ASV began. It may not get down under 2500. FFX is dropping like crazy in percentage, but RBY isn't really cutting.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 2:04:12 PM | message detail
Its not getting anywhere near 2500 at this rate.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 2:08:31 PM | message detail
Looks like FFX is pulling a round 2 MGS with three Nintendo day votes, maybe...?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Xialoh | Posted 6/4/2009 2:10:21 PM | message detail
Is there a guide around here for all this crazy terminology with ASV and whatnot? >.>..
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Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/4/2009 2:12:54 PM | message detail
>_>

the first post of this topic

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 2:13:05 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

Enjoy but try not to become as nerdy as us we're pretty far gone man
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
Xialoh | Posted 6/4/2009 2:23:55 PM | message detail
none of the *SV things are there, actually. Maybe it needs an update? I did find ASV with a manual search, but there is no DSV on the site (but I'll assume it means during school vote).
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Xialon, 80 Blood Elf Priest , Twisting Nether
Xialoh, 80 Blood Elf Rogue, Twisting Nether
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 2:31:48 PM | message detail
We should try to get Maxim in from Lufia 2. Seeing how weak Lufia 2 is, he might be the weakest character we've ever had.
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ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 6/4/2009 2:34:26 PM | message detail
Boring match is boring .. Can OoT rise up to 41% by the end of the match?

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 2:42:05 PM | message detail
but there is no DSV on the site (but I'll assume it means during school vote).

You are correct.

Doubt OoT gets to 41% though.

So...what about this RBY unable to make a move on FFX due to triple Nintendo day vote stuff I mentioned last night? I feel like it's been somewhat validated, but if someone's got a different explanation, I want to hear it.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 2:51:26 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #284
So...what about this RBY unable to make a move on FFX due to triple Nintendo day vote stuff I mentioned last night? I feel like it's been somewhat validated, but if someone's got a different explanation, I want to hear it.


I think its the fact its 4k down. 4k down isn't easy to make big cuts
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 2:52:49 PM | message detail
G/S cut MGS all day long during the ASV being down far more.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/4/2009 2:53:36 PM | message detail
It's already getting a KH level ASV here. If you want a comeback you'd need a lot better than that(and anyone who expected a lot better is a bit crazy)
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Karma Hunter | Posted 6/4/2009 2:56:21 PM | message detail
G/S was 6k down and didn't have any trouble making cuts on MGS.

The explanation is that MGS's day vote is just that bad, and Pokemon just had the opportunity to take advantage of it. FFX still has a vote intake worth a damn during the day (at least compared to MGS), so RBY isn't able to do anything while being down by this much.

G/S didn't so much hinder RBY's day vote by being there - RBY's day vote was fine that match from an absolute votes standpoint. What it did do, however, was suck it up in the early stages much more than it should have, due to the concerted effort from the voters trying to get RBY over MGS that match. RBY having a much stronger early vote means that its day vote isn't going to look as good - or, to put it another way, MGS would have probably been up by a LOT more had that concerted effort been absent. Snake/Cloud/Sephiroth, yo.
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Yesmar | Posted 6/4/2009 2:57:32 PM | message detail
G/S cut MGS all day long during the ASV being down far more.

G/S has a better day vote, and in terms of percentage they were both down equal amounts roughly.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 2:57:38 PM | message detail
That makes sense. Some people were saying that FFX's day vote probably wasn't much better than MGS's though, which I disagreed with anyway.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
transients | Posted 6/4/2009 3:13:01 PM | message detail
well, today answers a lot of questions. it pretty much confirms FF7 > FF10 > the rest. it proves that either RBY is immune to Nintendo games or that it's the very clear #3 on this site (I won't count this out). it gives us a second tier of LTTP/SM64/SMW/SMB3/RBY, with Brawl being the last question mark on the list (and even Melee might belong here; who knows with SFF).

tomorrow should be interesting.
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 6/4/2009 3:16:43 PM | message detail
Good show by FFX. Knew the talk about this 1500 vote comeback was pretty silly.

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transients | Posted 6/4/2009 3:18:36 PM | message detail
1500 vote comeback would have been a reality if it was only down 1500 votes. it's down much more so it has to go that much further in order to just stall.

the fact that it's stalling now despite being down 4000 votes is pretty amazing.
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 3:21:05 PM | message detail
regardless, RBY is for real. who woulda thought before this contest it could actually get this far
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ZFS | Posted 6/4/2009 3:21:07 PM | message detail
Well, that was part of it. No idea why people expected FFX to only be up 1500 votes heading into the ASV, or wherever it was people were expecting this to happen. I mean, when we were talking about this FFX was up around 500 votes, and that was before the time when FF games usually go on a tear. Seemed rather clear last night FFX was going to win this. But oh well, just good to see it happening !

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Sonic_Factor | Posted 6/4/2009 3:21:45 PM | message detail
ffx is doing over a % better on OoT then either lttp or sm64 in the past two rounds > _ >.. so unless you think ffx > lttp/sm64 this isnt looking good for oot; who on top of it all, is sffing melee to hell.
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transients | Posted 6/4/2009 3:22:03 PM | message detail
yeah, this was over after ten minutes. maybe two minutes.
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xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/4/2009 3:22:10 PM | message detail
We were talking it about it before the match even started!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 3:27:14 PM | message detail
I figured it was over when FFX was beating RBY at the freeze, but darn it, trend master red sox made me hesitant.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Mac Arrowny | Posted 6/4/2009 3:29:15 PM | message detail
ffx is doing over a % better on OoT then either lttp or sm64 in the past two rounds > _ >.. so unless you think ffx > lttp/sm64 this isnt looking good for oot; who on top of it all, is sffing melee to hell.

Alternatively, FFX's in a match with three Nintendo games, and is definitely benefiting from that (though everyone thought FFX > SM64 before the contest anyway, so it's not like that's impossible either).
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