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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 742

Yesmar | Posted 6/4/2009 10:51:25 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy 6 has a strength of 43.34.
Goldeneye has a strength of 27.38.


Where do those values come from?
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:51:44 AM | message detail

From: Yesmar | #201
Final Fantasy 6 has a strength of 43.34.
Goldeneye has a strength of 27.38.


Where do those values come from?


2004 lol xstats
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:54:21 AM | message detail
I don't know if its been discussed yet, but who do we take 1v1 now? Melee or RBY?
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Yesmar | Posted 6/4/2009 10:54:23 AM | message detail
I don't know how much more you expected it to get, especially since OoT is SFFing SSBM hard here.

FFX would have gotten 40% on '04. It's probably dropped since then, but I thought being the only non-Nintendo entrant could help it come close.

This is also the point where someone probably pulls out my Oracle and shows me that I didn't have FFX that high, lol.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
xp1337 | Posted 6/4/2009 10:54:26 AM | message detail
No, it's not even the 2004 X-Stats, not completely. Those figures assume that FF7 gets a certain value on BL.

That said, if I'm thinking this out correctly, adjusting both would not affect the projected result between the two.

Although, I forget how FF7 was given a value on BL.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:55:07 AM | message detail
FFX would have gotten 40% on '04.

Ehhhhhh. SSBM got 37% on FFVII. I doubt FFX gets 40% on OoT.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 10:55:57 AM | message detail
I don't know if its been discussed yet, but who do we take 1v1 now? Melee or RBY?

Melee, FFX is just performing too well here.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 10:56:52 AM | message detail
We'd also need lots of smiling Tidus to really ruin FFX.

Hah, too funny - this time Final Fantasy fans might actually *want* a "Starring Tidus!" type picture for FFX!

Hey, when it comes to my favorite game, you better believe I got my facts straight!

Wait. It's not FFVIII? I...I can't believe this! O_o

Personally I think LttP/SM64/CT are a bit underrated, but since we won't have another games contest in about five years these stats will more or less be useless.

People are a lot more interested in stats for fun and a sense of order, as well as for-fun hypothetical matchup analysis, then for practical use in prediction.


One thing on Brawl's chances - if there is MGS/FF "funny business" as Leon puts it, that might open some hope for Brawl. That MGS4 and FFX are on different consoles, unlike FF8 and MGS, might help to stem any overlap between the franchises though.

If funny business does rear it's ugly head, we could see FFX looking horrible against Ocarina yet still advancing over a heavily SFFed Brawl.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:57:07 AM | message detail
I'll still take Melee over RBY. OoT SFFing SSBM harder doesn't change my mind on the matter. It's like looking at how Yoshi performed on Link and how Ganondorf performed on Link, and then asking me if I'd take Yoshi over Ganondorf.

Or perhaps better, it's like looking at how Samus did on Link, and how Mario did on Link, and asking me who I take.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 10:57:11 AM | message detail
Well, at this point, it's pretty obvious that CT overperformed on FFVII in the finals in 2004, which makes Division 16 overrated.

Division 8, too.

Also, with SSBM not impressing all that much this contest and having heard suggestions that SSBM was over-rated on FF7 too, do you think more than just B8 saw FF7/LoZ:OoT in 2004 as the championship? Because we can look at the Villain Contest and see that obvious favorites for winning it all can under-perform in the later rounds, which can tie in with how this format has allowed some bandwagons to make big changes late in the bracket. If that's the case, Division 32-64 was actually under-rated...which makes FF7/LoZ:OoT all the scarier and PD/C:SotN falling off so much a little weirder (though age simply caught up with those two, plus they were out-classed).
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BT > Harrich
lol me
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:58:22 AM | message detail
Wait. It's not FFVIII? I...I can't believe this! O_o

FFVIII is a close second, but FFX's been my favorite game for a while. Not that I flaunt it much. I don't think I've ever done a favorite game list here. I wouldn't know how to do it beyond the top 2.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:59:29 AM | message detail
Oh, and I figured HaRR would like this:

Symphony of the Night – 23.72%
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – 22.63%

Looks like you were right, my friend!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 11:01:01 AM | message detail
Ehhhhhh. SSBM got 37% on FFVII. I doubt FFX gets 40% on OoT.

Yeah it wouldn't have gotten 40%. It'll end with about the same here as it probably would've got in 2k4, although Ocarina is getting leeched slightly here.

Division 8, too.

OK, so people now apparently think every division in 2k4 was overrated. Interesting ;)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 11:01:05 AM | message detail
And I guess it's worth asking: What do we make of OoT's performance here, since it almost certainly finishes over 40% this round?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:01:32 AM | message detail
One thing on Brawl's chances - if there is MGS/FF "funny business" as Leon puts it, that might open some hope for Brawl. That MGS4 and FFX are on different consoles, unlike FF8 and MGS, might help to stem any overlap between the franchises though.

If funny business does rear it's ugly head, we could see FFX looking horrible against Ocarina yet still advancing over a heavily SFFed Brawl.


Too bad neither game will be there.

>_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 11:01:42 AM | message detail
OK, so people now apparently think every division in 2k4 was overrated. Interesting ;)

Except 32/64, but he's right. If CT is overrated, then Mario 3 is overrated, which makes Division 8 overrated.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/4/2009 11:01:52 AM | message detail
Well, I hate the fact that Super Metroid is stuck under all that SFF, as I doubt that it'd lose to Resident Evil or RE2 one-on-one. Heck, I doubt that it'd lose to Super Mario RPG, Sonic 2, or Symphony of the Night.

Same with Super Mario Kart, really.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 11:01:56 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #214
And I guess it's worth asking: What do we make of OoT's performance here, since it almost certainly finishes over 40% this round?


Its a very good performance to show it should still give FF7 a great fight
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creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 11:03:30 AM | message detail
You should be TidushartFour then! (wait, what's the Four for? never thought about that before)

Or maybe AuronHart.

Or ZatsunmakiShakuZulu, ala HM after he abandoned Mario!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 11:04:11 AM | message detail
4 is just my favorite number, so I stuck it on the end.

Squall is still my favorite character though! That hasn't changed!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 11:04:19 AM | message detail
whos ready for a 4000 vote swing
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 11:04:45 AM | message detail
Symphony of the Night – 23.72%
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – 22.63%


Haha, man, forgot about that...it makes me mad Sonic games suck here, though I'm glad I called that one right.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 11:05:06 AM | message detail
Your taste in games is good, your taste in numbers blows.

5>4
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 11:05:53 AM | message detail
Please, guys, it's all about one number and one number only: 12.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:06:36 AM | message detail
8 > all
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 11:09:07 AM | message detail
8 used to be my ****, I'll respect that. =)


Leonhart, do you plan to do a NRT-type contest this year for characters?
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BT > Harrich
lol me
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/4/2009 11:09:10 AM | message detail
As I said, Super Metroid and Super Mario Kart would not lose to Link's Awakening, Mega Man X, Sonic 2, Super Mario RPG, Resident Evil 2, Mario Kart 64, Symphony of the Night, and Resident Evil. But Star Fox 64 ahead of DOOM? That would be quite the upset! We need to put it in an unhindered situation next time, like:

Chrono Trigger
Diablo
Mr. Bones
Star Fox 64

Aw yeah!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 11:10:42 AM | message detail
And now for something completely different, list your top five series bombs:

5. Sonic the Hedgehog
4. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CU53zK47q9A
3. Grand Theft Auto
2. Halo
1. Mega Man

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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 11:11:13 AM | message detail
SF64/D2 feels like that would be a fun match for the board to goof around with.

NOT EVEN BARREL ROLLS CAN SAVE YOU FROM ME
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BT > Harrich
lol me
xp1337 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:12:10 AM | message detail
As I said, Super Metroid and Super Mario Kart would not lose to Link's Awakening, Mega Man X, Sonic 2, Super Mario RPG, Resident Evil 2, Mario Kart 64, Symphony of the Night, and Resident Evil.

I'll take Link's Awakening and SMRPG over those two without thinking. I'd have to think about SotN/both Resident Evils
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 11:12:50 AM | message detail
1. Sonic
2. GTA
3. Halo
4. Metroid
5. Mega Man
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BT > Harrich
lol me
creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 11:13:29 AM | message detail
After FF7 thrashed SM64 and Chrono Trigger, in retrospect Star Fox's 20+% on it looked pretty damn good.

I feel like a proud father.
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xp1337 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:14:46 AM | message detail
1. GTA
2. Halo (It's close though)
3. Sonic
4. No one else approaches these 3, although there were other disappointments (Such as Mega Man).
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:17:26 AM | message detail
What's with the GTA hate? The only game that flopped was San Andreas.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 11:19:04 AM | message detail
Actually, switch GTA and Sonic for me. Sonic 1 exceeded my expectations both in the bracket and series while Sonic 2 lasted longer than I had it (then again, I had MK2 advancing two rounds for whatever reason). Sonic 3 was a GTA:SA-esque bomb for me though, even if I didn't have it advancing past R1. That was pathetic.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 11:19:54 AM | message detail
Leonhart, do you plan to do a NRT-type contest this year for characters?

I don't think it's necessary, especially after two years of 128 characters and possibly a third. There aren't many more characters worth rallying for anymore.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 11:21:46 AM | message detail
What's with the GTA hate? The only game that flopped was San Andreas.

GTAIII finishing in a distant last was bad, as was IV's second performance against Brawl. Vice City surprised people and advanced, but that was due to Metroid Prime being one of Nintendo's biggest bombs.

Still, I don't think anything approaches Mega Man. Three entrants - two of them were awful, and the third performed better but still lost handily after being considered the favorite.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
xp1337 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:22:20 AM | message detail
What's with the GTA hate? The only game that flopped was San Andreas.

San Andreas may be the highlight, but...

GTA3 finishes in last behind KotOR
GTA4 wins, but Street Fighter 4 = Persona 4 makes it look worse than it normally would, even if that's unfair.

Although, I think it's mainly a perception problem, that SA match just makes everything look worse even when that may not be fair.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 11:23:43 AM | message detail
GTA:VC didn't impress me in hindsight because it advanced past MP-with-PM, GTA3 took last place in a poll where Halo advanced (and took last place in R2 to a LFF'd/SFF'd LoZ:WW), and GTA4 only looked as well as it did since SF4 and SMG were busts. I also took GTA:SA to R3 instead of R2 like most people.

Street Fighter would be worthy of this kind of list, but I'm not crazy about pretty much a two-horse series I didn't have great expectations for anyway bombing.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 11:25:54 AM | message detail
Halo as a whole was probably the biggest bomb, I'd say. For games, gotta be Galaxy.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:26:04 AM | message detail
I don't think it's necessary, especially after two years of 128 characters and possibly a third. There aren't many more characters worth rallying for anymore.

How about we only rally a smaller number of characters rather than 4 we could do 2 or 3. Also we should rally more than one returner.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 6/4/2009 11:26:23 AM | message detail
And now for something completely different, list your top five series bombs:

1. Street Fighter (Not even ONE respectable match in this contest. Not one!)
2. Halo
3. Mega Man
4. Sonic (At least Sonic 1 looked good, for what it's worth...)
5. Metroid

In other news, I've recently gotten interested in the Castlevania series for whatever reason...
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 11:26:48 AM | message detail
MM2 did well enough for its era and ended up not getting crushed like Metroid did to SMB1/LoZ, MM3 was crushed by SMW, and LoZ:LA was surprisingly strong. The MM-games were disappointing, yeah, but I'm comfortable enough with what happened to not be so disappointed in them. I didn't like the idea of any of them being power-houses anyway despite Mega Man's strength.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 11:28:23 AM | message detail
Street Fighter would be worthy of this kind of list, but I'm not crazy about pretty much a two-horse series I didn't have great expectations for anyway bombing.

I dunno, I read this, and then listened to the last note of this (skip to 3:34):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekAIelXtIis

and now I'm laughing.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
antd | Posted 6/4/2009 11:29:47 AM | message detail
What game is going to win this:

FF7 or OoT?
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:30:18 AM | message detail
PartOfYourWorld
GTAIII finishing in a distant last was bad, as was IV's second performance against Brawl. Vice City surprised people and advanced, but that was due to Metroid Prime being one of Nintendo's biggest bombs.


xp1337
San Andreas may be the highlight, but...
GTA3 finishes in last behind KotOR
GTA4 wins, but Street Fighter 4 = Persona 4 makes it look worse than it normally would, even if that's unfair.


HaRRicH
GTA:VC didn't impress me in hindsight because it advanced past MP-with-PM, GTA3 took last place in a poll where Halo advanced (and took last place in R2 to a LFF'd/SFF'd LoZ:WW), and GTA4 only looked as well as it did since SF4 and SMG were busts. I also took GTA:SA to R3 instead of R2 like most people.


You can't blame GTA3 for KotOR's overperformance. Also before VC most people had GTA3 at a distant third.

In hindsight Vice City did as expected at worst and GTA4 had no problems in round 1 and even in the second round it still got a half decent percent and managed to defeat Galaxy.

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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 11:30:42 AM | message detail
I think two newcomers and two returners would be real cool...perhaps an optional fifth wild-card that could be either one. I feel where Leon's coming from, but it's fun as a B8-vet to see some entries we helped get in and watched since before they got into the contest anyway.

The NRT reminds me, actually, that RBY won it this past year. Congrats, Pokemon, you were the star of this contest as far as I'm concerned.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 11:31:50 AM | message detail
I suppose we could go for two newbies and two returners.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
paulg235 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:34:50 AM | message detail
Is this the NRT tournament you guys are talking about? How exactly does it work? I wasn't around for any of the previous ones.
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The Gamer In Me
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xp1337 | Posted 6/4/2009 11:35:02 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]