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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 742

Tequilla Gundam | Posted 6/4/2009 7:51:57 AM | message detail
I really like SMW in the Finals!
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Feel my truth.
creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 8:04:16 AM | message detail
nd it's getting killed today by RBY.

Eh? It's like I said, RBY is getting killed by Melee. Maybe they're LFFing each other, but there's no way in hell RBY SFFs Melee. The SFF against Melee is Ocarina, that's fairly obvious, perhaps with some RBY LFF as well. But for RBY to get hurt this much by an absolutely lowly Melee, whose votes are going en masse to Ocarina to begin with, is fairly clear evidence that Melee hurts RBY by SFF a lot IMO.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/4/2009 8:07:09 AM | message detail
I'd way for the day to run fully before making a judgment on that. Once all's said and done here I don't think RBY's going to be much more than maybe 1% lower on OoT than last round.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 8:12:50 AM | message detail
We have two predictable semifinals locked and ready, so unless Ocarina wants to make the finals interesting, tomorrow is all we've got left.

Resident Evil 4's combined margin of victory through three rounds: 1945 votes

One more time, Mr. Kennedy.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/4/2009 8:15:17 AM | message detail
I can't see any possible way you look at today and that say that Melee comes out on top against SFF with RBY.

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Swifticuffs | Posted 6/4/2009 8:16:33 AM | message detail
FF7/OOT/LTTP/FFX still the final?
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*~Swift~* Proud NY sports fan
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/4/2009 8:17:06 AM | message detail
In better news, looks like FFX is starting to slow down !!

3300 votes ain't no thing.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 8:24:40 AM | message detail

From: Swifticuffs | #156
FF7/OOT/LTTP/FFX still the final?


Should be. RE4 and MGS4 don't have the strength to contend with FFX. Brawl might, and that's really the only shot to disrupt what looks like a very safe final four. Brawl's gotta do much better against Ocarina than Melee is doing now, though, and it's gotta hope that MGS4/RE4 makes it and hinders FFX.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 8:35:29 AM | message detail
I don't mean to insinuate RBY particularly SFF's SSBM -- I was meaning as far as their numbers go today, since RBY's 62-38'ing SSBM right now and isn't going to do all that much worse against LoZ:OoT this round despite having the #3 RPG on GameFAQs here, too. That's a lot to put specifically on LoZ:OoT to SFF SSBM that much harder than RBY is being hurt, and I don't think their past matches this contest justify that much. Pokemon's excelled in SFF/LFF-situations every match this contest, while we're at it, so it's not really fair to doubt it in a SFF-match against SSBM right now.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 6/4/2009 9:12:27 AM | message detail
52 vote gain there, still not slowing down yet.

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 9:15:35 AM | message detail
I hope Ocarina holds 40% with the ASV and SNV. No one was expecting it to stay competitive with FFVII after yesterday, so this is quite the surprise.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
RPGuy96 | Posted 6/4/2009 9:25:16 AM | message detail
In SFF terms, Ocarina is doing (ever so slightly) better on Melee then FFVII on FFVI. That's important for LttP/FFX in the finals...
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Mustache...and Green...
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 9:31:33 AM | message detail
Yeah, this near-tripling on the formerly "non-SFFable" Melee is pretty damned impressive, although we're not sure how much of it is due to people abandoning Melee in the hopes of pushing Pokemon through. Regardless, even Pokemon is going to look worse against OoT this time, so Ocarina still wields the SFF hammer. Right now, I doubt that LttP will show much immunity to it. I'm not putting any stock into favorites polls from six years ago, and LttP might not even be worth 40% indirectly on OoT now, which makes picturing it SFF'D to under 30% if required a much easier preposition.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 9:32:53 AM | message detail
*proposition

*whatever
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/4/2009 9:33:38 AM | message detail
I hope Ocarina holds 40% with the ASV and SNV. No one was expecting it to stay competitive with FFVII after yesterday, so this is quite the surprise.

Ocarina is really picking up the pace here after the horrible night vote.

Time | Ocarina | Pokemon | Melee | FFX
1:00 | 40.29% | 21.60% | 15.37% | 22.74%
2:00 | 39.63% | 21.47% | 14.59% | 24.31%
3:00 | 40.30% | 21.06% | 12.85% | 25.80%
4:00 | 37.91% | 21.45% | 13.39% | 27.26%
5:00 | 37.24% | 20.34% | 12.63% | 29.79%
6:00 | 37.72% | 20.61% | 11.32% | 30.35%
7:00 | 38.12% | 20.21% | 13.14% | 28.53%
8:00 | 40.04% | 18.65% | 13.60% | 27.72%
9:00 | 41.47% | 18.58% | 12.67% | 27.29%
10:00 | 40.81% | 19.43% | 13.85% | 25.91%
11:00 | 41.34% | 19.82% | 14.35% | 24.49%
12:00 | 42.17% | 20.13% | 14.03% | 23.67%
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 9:57:20 AM | message detail
LttP might not even be worth 40% indirectly on OoT now, which makes picturing it SFF'D to under 30% if required a much easier preposition.

It'll blow past that. OoT and FF7 should triple their siblings with absolute ease. I see them getting near quadrupling - my guess is something like 40/40/10/10. The siblings are just afterthoughts here.

In other news FFX has turned an 7499 vote defeat into what is now an 8347 vote lead. I'll conservatively estimate this match to finish with something like 30000 votes for FFX and 18000 for Smash.

Which would bring the all-time FFX vs. Melee tally to 40253+34662+30000=104915 and 41798+42161+18000=101959. That's 50.7% for Final Fantasy X!

FFX>SSBM confirmed. Undebatable. Set in stone. No shady factors or sketchy logic involved whatsoever.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/4/2009 9:59:32 AM | message detail
Everyone knows the finals, despite having 4 games, is OoT vs. FF7. Any games that get there are going to be annihilated; I could see quadruplings.

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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/4/2009 10:00:06 AM | message detail
I doubt they get crushed that badly, but we'll see.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/4/2009 10:01:27 AM | message detail
So...rank these games.

RBY
Melee
Brawl
FFX
LTTP
CT
SM64
SMW
SMB3

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/4/2009 10:01:52 AM | message detail
I'm not gonna like this final. I hate both FF7 and OoT.

At least I can root for LttP vs FFX, I guess.
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Wylvane's current main account.
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/4/2009 10:03:09 AM | message detail
RBY
Melee
Brawl
FFX
LTTP
CT
SM64
SMW
SMB3

LttP >= SMB3 >= SMW >= SM64 >= RBY >= Melee >= Brawl >= CT >= FFX
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 10:03:18 AM | message detail
I'd buy triplings, but I'll have to see the quadruplings to believe it. It's possible, but, man, that'll be a huge feat for both of our big two.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/4/2009 10:03:23 AM | message detail
LttP
Brawl
SMB3
SMW
SM64
CT
FFX
RBY
Melee
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Wylvane's current main account.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 10:06:53 AM | message detail
80/20 on LttP would be psychotic. I guess it's not impossible given the format and all, but once again, I think the picture would need to be:

http://www.zeldadungeon.net/Zelda03/Characters/Link.gif
http://zs.ffshrine.org/album/ocarina-of-time/art/oot-link07.gif

If our artists want to see as close a 1v1 match as possible, they'd shoot for that. We'd also need lots of smiling Tidus to really ruin FFX.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 10:08:35 AM | message detail
(LoZ:OoT)
(FF7)
RBY
LoZ:LttP
SM64
SMW
SMB3
SSBB
CT
FFX
SSBM

Bah...rough list, and I feel dirty with several of those.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/4/2009 10:09:11 AM | message detail
(LoZ:OoT)
(FF7)


whoops!
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 10:14:24 AM | message detail
I wouldn't even bother trying to rank those. Seven of them are Nintendo and the SFF can go any which way in any of those scenarios. Honestly, the most interesting match might be FFX vs. CT. I'd love to see that one, especially given yet another year of gray hairs for Crono and crew.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 6/4/2009 10:19:17 AM | message detail
OoT tearing it down now, good showing.

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
XxSoulxX | Posted 6/4/2009 10:19:21 AM | message detail
is fairly clear evidence that Melee hurts RBY by SFF a lot IMO.

No, it doesn't. The strongest Nintendo game on this site can't SFF Pokemon, what makes you think a weaker Nintendo game will? Use common sense here.
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Good Times,
Great Memories
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:28:28 AM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #179
is fairly clear evidence that Melee hurts RBY by SFF a lot IMO.

No, it doesn't. The strongest Nintendo game on this site can't SFF Pokemon, what makes you think a weaker Nintendo game will? Use common sense here.


Because RBY is doing way worse on OoT then it did last round. Pretty clear cut.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:30:49 AM | message detail
Well I wouldn't say "better", FF7 was getting higher percentages overnight. Though with more votes in the morning it might be getting just as many votes from it, I don't know.

Well, in terms of going from 1-6 and from 6-9, FFVII's overall percentage of votes brought in was higher from 6-9. Those two hours from 4-6 where FFVII was completely obliterating the poll make up the difference from 1-3, and it's the same thing for FFX here. Yeah, FFX brought in a higher percentage from 4-6, but it's bringing in a higher percentage from 6-9 than it did from 1-3, so it balances out.

And as far as saying that SSBM is LFFing RBY, I'm not so sure of that. I'd sooner say that this confirms MGS/FFVIII funny business than saying this is SSBM/RBY funny business. If it's MGS here right now, it could probably win.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:31:49 AM | message detail
And it looks like SSBM's day vote is getting started a little early today. Hmmm...
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:32:37 AM | message detail
Btw Leon, I gotta admit you were right on with the trends of FFX even though I doubted them. Good job :)
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http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 10:32:51 AM | message detail
Because RBY is doing way worse on OoT then it did last round. Pretty clear cut.

Yes because SFF results don't change a lot for no reason.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 10:33:15 AM | message detail
Replace RBY with FFVIII. How does Melee look?
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 10:34:55 AM | message detail
About the same maybe it gains a couple of percent.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/4/2009 10:35:45 AM | message detail
Can somebody please post the x-stats for the 2nd quarter of the bracket? I missed them the first time around.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:36:26 AM | message detail
Btw Leon, I gotta admit you were right on with the trends of FFX even though I doubted them. Good job :)

Hey, when it comes to my favorite game, you better believe I got my facts straight!

Replace RBY with FFVIII. How does Melee look?

Hmmm...OoT/FFVIII/SSBM/FFX...That's a doozy. I don't know how much RBY is contributing to the SFF here, but we've seen how FF games split. I still wanna say that FFX beats Melee, but it's definitely a lot closer.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:37:13 AM | message detail
Second Quarter Stats

Final Fantasy VII – 50.00%
A Link to the Past – 36.61%
Super Mario 64 – 36.42%
Chrono Trigger – 35.36%
Final Fantasy VI – 33.34%
GoldenEye 007 – 33.03%
Super Mario RPG – 30.94%
Link’s Awakening – 30.60%
Mario Kart 64 – 29.98%
Resident Evil 2 – 25.81%
Mega Man X – 25.39%
Symphony of the Night – 23.72%
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – 22.63%
Resident Evil – 22.07%
Super Metroid – 22.01%
Super Mario Kart – 21.96%
Star Fox 64 – 20.86%
Yoshi’s Island – 20.25%
Mortal Kombat II – 20.21%
The Secret of Mana – 18.61%
Donkey Kong Country – 17.76%
Doom – 17.40%
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 – 16.25%
Earthbound – 14.79%
Kirby Super Star – 13.85%
Donkey Kong Country 2 – 13.50%
Suikoden – 11.10%
Streets of Rage II – 9.33%
Shining Force II – 6.71%
Phantasy Star IV – 6.01%
Gunstar Heroes – 5.17%
Lufia II – 4.76%

Second Quarter Raw Stats

Final Fantasy VII – 50.00%
A Link to the Past – 36.61%
Super Mario 64 – 36.42%
Chrono Trigger – 34.35%
GoldenEye – 26.13%
Super Mario RPG – 26.48%
Final Fantasy VI – 25.69%
Resident Evil – 22.72%
Super Metroid – 22.01%
Star Fox 64 – 20.86%
Mario Kart 64 – 20.70%
Resident Evil 2 – 20.42%
Super Mario Kart – 19.89%
Mega Man X – 19.57%
Symphony of the Night – 19.40%
Link’s Awakening – 18.55%
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 – 17.95%
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – 17.44%
Doom – 17.40%
Earthbound – 14.89%
Secret of Mana – 14.35%
Kirby Super Star – 14.25%
Donkey Kong Country – 13.86%
Mortal Kombat II – 12.79%
Yoshi’s Island – 11.18%
Suikoden – 11.10%
Donkey Kong Country 2 – 10.68%
Streets of Rage II – 9.33%
Gunstar Heroes – 5.70%
Shining Force II – 5.17%
Lufia II – 4.80%
Phantasy Star IV – 4.63%
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:38:03 AM | message detail
Streets of Rage II – 9.33%
Shining Force II – 6.71%
Phantasy Star IV – 6.01%
Gunstar Heroes – 5.17%
Lufia II – 4.76%


3 of my top 30 games there -sigh-
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http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:39:17 AM | message detail
Oh, and I gotta ask this, after looking at those numbers. FFVI vs. GoldenEye: Who you got? Remember that FFVI's number is probably inflated due to an SFF situation with LTTP. I'm not entirely sure what to do with GoldenEye though. Two entirely different numbers on FFVII, so I'm not sure which is more accurate.

Heck, from the looks of this, Mario RPG might could give FFVI a good fight.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
BDawg | Posted 6/4/2009 10:41:19 AM | message detail
I'm not taking old Square over anything comparable anymore until one of them can prove me wrong.
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Should I start running now?
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:41:24 AM | message detail
I still gotta give it to FF6, though a close match. Maybe 52%
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http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:42:36 AM | message detail
LTTP/CT is a 51.71% win for LTTP based on those numbers, for the record.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 10:43:33 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy 6 (2004g) VS Goldeneye (2004g)

Final Fantasy 6 has a strength of 43.34.
Goldeneye has a strength of 27.38.

Final Fantasy 6 wins with 68.41% of the vote!
A win of 28,826 with 78,278 total votes cast.


how times change
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:45:23 AM | message detail
Well, at this point, it's pretty obvious that CT overperformed on FFVII in the finals in 2004, which makes Division 16 overrated. Both LTTP and CT struggled to get 35% on FFVII. I suppose you could blame some of LTTP's struggle on Mario 64, but you could play the same blame game for FFVII/CT. Mario 64 did about the same both times, but it has potential LFF clouding it up both times. Hard to say how accurate it is.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:48:45 AM | message detail
Oh, and I'm guessing FFVII is probably the overall favorite to win this contest. It had nearly the same percentage getting to the semifinals that Ocarina of Time had getting to the quarterfinals. I'll be interested to see how high its percentage is here.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Yesmar | Posted 6/4/2009 10:48:50 AM | message detail
SSBM is suffering so badly today due to LPF, not that I expect anyone in here to believe me.*

Not too impressed with FFX's performance though. Unless OoT is on par with FFVII in '04, this will probably look like a noticeable drop off since then. I always suspected this might happen, with Tidus and Auron in '05 showing that FFX had lost some fans, but I still thought FFX might have been able to do a little better in such and advantageous situation. Oh well, maybe Pokemon's leeching RPG support.


*While everyone still believes stuff like "OoT will hurt Pokemon's day vote against FFX" something that there has never been any evidence for.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 10:50:13 AM | message detail
Personally I think LttP/SM64/CT are a bit underrated, but since we won't have another games contest in about five years these stats will more or less be useless.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 10:50:40 AM | message detail
FFX has nearly 39% (probably closer to 37% by the time it's done) on OoT here. I don't know how much more you expected it to get, especially since OoT is SFFing SSBM hard here. I think by this point we have to accept that basically no game is going to get 40% on FFVII or OoT without very favorable circumstances. They're just that far ahead of the pack.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."