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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 742

LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/4/2009 3:05:11 AM | message detail
Take that for seeing myself lose 5 lives against Master Hand and Crazy Hand, SSBM!

Why is Zelda 64 doing better this round than last?
Janus5000 | Posted 6/4/2009 3:05:57 AM | message detail
There we are. A nice 5 vote cut against ZELDAFEAR.

Let's see more of those. OoT needs to be prepared for what FFVII is gonna do to it in these hours. Not that 5 vote gains would satiate the beast that is FFVII. >:)
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consolefreak | Posted 6/4/2009 3:06:26 AM | message detail
In order words, Pokemon is going to have to do quite a bit better than KH to win here. I imagine it has a better morning and DSV than KH though so that helps

You're still giving RBY a chance? This match was over a long while ago.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/4/2009 3:09:20 AM | message detail
Well I never thought it did but everyone else was all like POKEMON CAN CUT THOSE VOTES EASY OMG
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Janus5000 | Posted 6/4/2009 3:11:09 AM | message detail
Also, that 1500 vote mark people were hyping up? FFX just flew past it.

I think the last two days just made us hungry for more comebacks.
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Smurf Alt | Posted 6/4/2009 3:15:17 AM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #101
Take that for seeing myself lose 5 lives against Master Hand and Crazy Hand, SSBM!

Why is Zelda 64 doing better this round than last?


FFVIII = FFX, MGS > Melee
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MrSmartGuy | Posted 6/4/2009 4:12:18 AM | message detail
Nearing the 2000 mark......

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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 4:14:05 AM | message detail
FFX not stopping just because we hit the BSV I see. FFVII lite indeed, then- but that also means it does worse with the DSV than it's doing now. Looks almost a complete lock for FFX now.
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Gaddswell | Posted 6/4/2009 4:14:39 AM | message detail
Well, it looks like the Pika streak of

i) coming in 1st in round 1
ii) an underwhelming round 2
iii) a surprising round 3 upset
iv) being ousted in round 4 while holding up to SFF well

holds on for yet another 4-way bracket.
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greatone10 | Posted 6/4/2009 4:20:17 AM | message detail
I wouldn't call Round 2 underwhelming at all, unless nearly pulling a huge upset while facing a game from the same series and having that game do relatively well is underwhelming to you.
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Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 4:40:20 AM | message detail
2000 already. Wow, FFX doesn't want to leave anything to chance.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/4/2009 4:48:16 AM | message detail
FFX by the hour:

1:00 | 51.29%
2:00 | 53.11%
3:00 | 55.06%
4:00 | 55.97%
5:00 | 59.42%
6:00 | 59.56%
7:00 | 58.53%
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/4/2009 5:24:55 AM | message detail

From: Smurf Alt | Posted: 6/4/2009 6:15:17 AM | #106
FFVIII = FFX, MGS > Melee


Yeah this is totally wrong. Ocarina is struggling to break 40% against an all-around disappointing FFX and two games it's clearly SFFing (though Pokemon is likely a contender for top 5, in fairness). Final Fantasy 7 broke 40% no sweat against two potential top five games and FF6, which may or may not have leeched.

And in the round prior, FF7 cruised past 40% against two potential top five games and Goldeneye. One of the games it beat was a 65-35 beating against Chrono Trigger, a 5% increase from five years ago.

You basically just said Ocarina is a lock for second place, since it couldn't break 40% against roughly this exact competition one round ago. No doubt in my mind FF7 would be past 40 by now and rising all day long. Ocarina winning pretty much requires FFX make the final, and even then I don't know if FFX hurts 7 as much as LTTP hurts Ocarina. FF7 looks to be in great shape.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/4/2009 5:57:32 AM | message detail
FFX is damn impressive here
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creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 5:58:18 AM | message detail
So the ridiculous Pokemon night vote is over and FFX finally starts to look decent within the morning vote.

...whah
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/4/2009 6:01:29 AM | message detail
OoT is going up in % again. It may fly past 40% with the DSV alone and it still has the ASV to go up a bit more.

Ocarina winning pretty much requires FFX make the final, and even then I don't know if FFX hurts 7 as much as LTTP hurts Ocarina.

Now if LTTP gets knocked out by SMW/SMB3 next round, then that increases OoT's chances of winning the contest. LTTP already struggled against SM64 and SMW/SMB3 should be stronger than SM64. Not even FFIV could even come close to SMW when SMB3 was present. LTTP is a good ways stronger than FFIV, but Zelda 1 could not take advantage of the 3-way Mario match to get first/second place.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/4/2009 6:04:37 AM | message detail
I think LTTP is in excellent shape to make the final, but who really knows.
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creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 6:05:53 AM | message detail
So right now it's looking like the game that could well be the #3 or #4 game on the site is going to be held to under 14% here. Sheesh.

Melee should be the legit #2 here but it's getting Ocarina'd. Brawl should hold up a lot better to the SFF due to it having much more of a time gap - but the SFF is so horrific here that even a fraction of this SFF should spell curtains for it against FFX. Not like it should be more than a couple points stronger than Melee neutrally at best. I'd still say it has a shot to beat out FFX, but a poor one.

I wonder what kind of SFF Ocarina would put on N64 brethren SSB, a game which should easily be a top 15 game indirectly.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/4/2009 6:06:50 AM | message detail
LttP is pretty much a lock for the finals, and unless MGS4 looks like an absolute beast tomorrow, so is FFX.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 6:12:09 AM | message detail
FFX would probably get 47-48% on Melee on even ground so unless you think Brawl would destroy Melee I don't see MGS4 (or RE4) competing here.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/4/2009 6:13:02 AM | message detail
LttP is pretty much a lock for the finals, and unless MGS4 looks like an absolute beast tomorrow, so is FFX.

All I have to say is that getting second place with only 23% is not the kind of performance that would really have me confident that it can make it to the finals. I had LTTP pegged at 28.41% in my Oracle and it did a good 5% worse than I expected.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/4/2009 6:13:32 AM | message detail
Yeah well you also don't know what you're talking about, so it' ok.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 6:13:32 AM | message detail
So the ridiculous Pokemon night vote is over and FFX finally starts to look decent within the morning vote.

...whah


I told you, FFX is like FFVII. Its morning vote is even better than its beastly night vote. Pokemon's morning vote isn't THAT great to begin with anyway.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 6:13:52 AM | message detail
Glad to see FFX surpassed 1500 vote lead exactly at 6 A.M. too. Whoo!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/4/2009 6:14:47 AM | message detail
Pokemon is gearing up for the biggest comeback ever, watch yourself FFX.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 6:14:56 AM | message detail
It's two Mario games that would be about equal with LttP alone. LttP will be fine.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/4/2009 6:15:21 AM | message detail
And Pokemon's getting crushed with the DSV right now, and FFX is still going up.

This is great.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 6:21:44 AM | message detail
ttP is pretty much a lock for the finals, and unless MGS4 looks like an absolute beast tomorrow, so is FFX.

I wouldn't say either is a lock. SMB3/SMW and, to a lesser extent, Brawl could still mess things up for them.

LttP had to hand on for dear life against Mario 64, and now faces two games that many believe are both stronger. Only problem for them is they go in together, which might hurt. Probably won't hurt much but it's doubtful they'd have any real separation from LttP to begin with, so even slight overlap hurts.

Also their early votes, which should normally give a good boost to a Mario game over a Zelda game, which be split here. Usually splitting like this means nothing for trends (though people keep trying to say it does) , but I do think it means something with the board vote/early vote because of how limited those votes are.

Brawl also has some chance, though again, a poor one. Ocarina will likely spell it's doom. Brawl could however pull an ASV comeback in the unlikely event that it keeps it close.


I told you, FFX is like FFVII. Its morning vote is even better than its beastly night vote.

Well I wouldn't say "better", FF7 was getting higher percentages overnight. Though with more votes in the morning it might be getting just as many votes from it, I don't know.
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Master Moltar | Posted 6/4/2009 6:24:03 AM | message detail
hey guyz let's draw conclusions from a crazy SFF match!!!!!!!

Melee isn't weak, OoT isn't just dishing out the damage, it's taking damage as well, and FFX is looking a little better than it should because of the Nintendo game wrecking each other. Standard SFF-fest fare.
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Match 59 - Bracket: OoT > FFX - Vote: SSBM (327/448)
creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 6:24:05 AM | message detail
And Pokemon's getting crushed with the DSV right now, and FFX is still going up.

Looks like RBY's early vote was more bandwagoned than we realized.

Kinda surprising to me how much Melee's presence is apparently hurting RBY when Ocarina couldn't do diddly to it. This despite Melee being SFFed to totally pathetic levels to begin with. Makes me think Melee might SFF RBY pretty bad 1v1.
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creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 6:26:34 AM | message detail
What's the morning vote defined as anyway? The overnight vote is 3am-6am right? Anyone wanna compare how many votes FFX got against RBY in those two time frames (and maybe also how it fared against Ocarina).
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/4/2009 6:26:36 AM | message detail
More like Pokemon SFFs Melee 1v1.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 6:26:52 AM | message detail
I wouldn't say either is a lock. SMB3/SMW and, to a lesser extent, Brawl could still mess things up for them.

LttP had to hand on for dear life against Mario 64, and now faces two games that many believe are both stronger. Only problem for them is they go in together, which might hurt. Probably won't hurt much but it's doubtful they'd have any real separation from LttP to begin with, so even slight overlap hurts.

Also their early votes, which should normally give a good boost to a Mario game over a Zelda game, which be split here. Usually splitting like this means nothing for trends (though people keep trying to say it does) , but I do think it means something with the board vote/early vote because of how limited those votes are.


Super Mario 64 is probably close to the other Mario games. With two of them they have no chance. Just look at how well the original Legend of Zelda did against them.

Brawl also has some chance, though again, a poor one. Ocarina will likely spell it's doom. Brawl could however pull an ASV comeback in the unlikely event that it keeps it close.

Melee is getting destroyed here, even if Brawl is stronger it wouldn't make up the difference.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 6:27:59 AM | message detail
I'd agree with you on both points charmander, I'm just saying these aren't mortal locks. Though Brawl's chances look very bad.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/4/2009 6:29:04 AM | message detail
Yeah well you also don't know what you're talking about, so it' ok.

Shut up.

I told you, FFX is like FFVII. Its morning vote is even better than its beastly night vote. Pokemon's morning vote isn't THAT great to begin with anyway.

FFVII by the hour in yesterday's match:

Time |
1:00 | 36.80%
2:00 | 39.28%
3:00 | 40.88%
4:00 | 43.00%
5:00 | 45.31%
6:00 | 46.07%
7:00 | 43.17%
8:00 | 42.11%
9:00 | 41.32%
10:00 | 41.55%
11:00 | 41.67%
12:00 | 40.83%
13:00 | 41.11%
14:00 | 41.23%
15:00 | 39.11%
16:00 | 37.57%
17:00 | 38.38%
18:00 | 38.27%
19:00 | 38.24%
20:00 | 39.00%
21:00 | 38.84%
22:00 | 39.63%
23:00 | 38.58%
24:00 | 40.41%

FFVII continued to rise overnight until the BSV, where it dropped off. It dropped off even more with the ASV and only recovered in the last hour of the match. I'm thinking FFX has similar trends to this, although it's still going up. The other games must have poor morning votes or something.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/4/2009 6:29:15 AM | message detail
Obviously nothing's a "lock" this contest, but they're both heavy favorites to the point that you'd have to be Lopen to pick against them.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 6:39:07 AM | message detail
I'm also thinking that Wind Waker LFFing Melee is confirmed now. I had tried to get thoughts on how Diablo did so much worse when WW was removed, and if that foreshadowed Ocarina SFFing Melee, though I don't recall anyone saying what they thought. I never expected Melee to get SFFed this hard, considering how strong a game it is. (this kinda confirms how strong Mario 64 probably was in 2k4 neutrally)

With how much WW looks like it hurt Melee, I'm thinking MGS4 could look a lot better this round - unless RE4 and MGS3 really did hurt each other for some reason. I don't think Twilight Princess gets SFFed either, I think it holds up. I see Brawl/TP/MGS4 as actually within a few points of each other there.


but they're both heavy favorites to the point that you'd have to be Lopen to pick against them.

Hah! :)

That should be like our standard line for contest stuff. Since nothing is pretty much ever a lock in these things, "You'd have to be Lopen to pick against this!" kinda says it all.
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/4/2009 6:43:25 AM | message detail
I'm also thinking that Wind Waker LFFing Melee is confirmed now. I had tried to get thoughts on how Diablo did so much worse when WW was removed, and if that foreshadowed Ocarina SFFing Melee, though I don't recall anyone saying what they thought. I never expected Melee to get SFFed this hard, considering how strong a game it is. (this kinda confirms how strong Mario 64 probably was in 2k4 neutrally)

From my analysis

"Between the three games Super Smash Bros. Melee has the lowest chance at advancing. Wind Waker was able to cause Diablo II to go from 33% to 43% against Melee, sure they were on the same console, but it also tells us that Melee could be affected by Zelda games. "
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > FFX Points: 323/448
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/4/2009 7:04:17 AM | message detail
Finals being FF7/LTTP/OoT/FFX is locked now.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/4/2009 7:06:47 AM | message detail
Also, let's not try to do draw too many strength comparisons from a match where FFX is doubling Melee, alright?

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 7:12:44 AM | message detail
FFX has 65.5% on Melee.
Pokemon has 59.9% on Melee.

Melee would likely beat both 1v1.

I'm blaming Pokemon for this tragedy.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 7:14:05 AM | message detail
Although if you'd like to believe that Pokemon > Melee, it also suggests that Majora's Mask > Wind Waker, so maybe I'm vindicated about MM being higher up the Zelda ladder than most people thought!
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/4/2009 7:14:25 AM | message detail
Pokemon beats both one-on-one.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/4/2009 7:15:59 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/4/2009 7:17:16 AM | message detail
I think RBY could challenge Melee 1 on 1, but it's hard to say that Wind Waker wasn't SFFd after today's match. You can't say the same about Majora.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 7:17:29 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2442

Pokemon beats PaRappa the Rapper 1v1.
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Crimson Dragoon | Posted 6/4/2009 7:19:05 AM | message detail
Pokemon beats PaRappa the Rapper 1v1.

Whoa there. Let's not get too hasty here.
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creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 7:43:39 AM | message detail
Wind Waker beats Major's Mask easy IMO.
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creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 7:44:43 AM | message detail
Pokemon beats both one-on-one.

Like I said on how RBY is hurting today, Melee probably SFFs RBY hard 1v1.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 7:50:15 AM | message detail
I'm not sold on SSBM beating RBY for a second; it's not just been as impressive as RBY round-for-round this contest, and it's getting killed today by RBY. SSBM's not getting 37% on LoZ:OoT without RBY here like RBY did last round without SSBM, either. I know it's hard to fairly say how much of this is RBY's doing and how much is LoZ:OoT's, but I don't think there is decisive evidence that SSBM would win that match or even that LoZ:OoT is overwhelmingly more damaging to SSBM than RBY (though I'm sure it's the bigger factor of the two). The best SSBM can do is compare LoZ:WW and LoZ:MM, but even then it's not a great comparison since SSBM should hurt LoZ:WW more than RBY hurts LoZ:MM.

Now, SSBB, maybe...but SSBM's not beating RBY from what I've seen so far.
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