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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 742

ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 6/3/2009 11:32:48 PM | message detail
If its only 1000, RBY has to be the favorite

Agrees, even though Pokemon has to contend with OoT and Brawl with the ASV, it's still going to gain quite a bit with the mixture of FFX flat out dying during that time.

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
MrSmartGuy | Posted 6/3/2009 11:33:50 PM | message detail
Guys, please take into consideration that:
1. This is the first time I've even clicked on any of these topics, let alone read any of them or cared about the contest as a whole, and the only reason I am right now is because, by some miracle, I'm just off the leaderboard near the final rounds, and want to see what others think about what's going to happen in them.
2. I'm saying as many negative things about FFX so I'll jinx it into winning, so I can maybe possibly, if a god exists, make the leaderboard for the first time in my life.

>_____>

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Xbox GT/PSN name: TatteredUniform - SSBB FC: 1891-0831-5747 (TEETS)
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/3/2009 11:35:42 PM | message detail
Judging by how separated FFVII and Ocarina seem to be from the rest of the pack, it's now clear that they can't lose in this format unless it's to each other. Not even if they have their two most draining FF/Zelda games in the poll with them. This is not shocking news, obviously, but that LttP>FFVII upset does seem silly now.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/3/2009 11:35:50 PM | message detail
Wow, Brawl's doomed. It depends on how many of its votes Melee keeps from last round to be able to tell for sure, though.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 11:35:55 PM | message detail
I know we might seem kinda Elitist, but we're not used to people coming in here who don't have all the stats down pat already :P
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ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 6/3/2009 11:36:24 PM | message detail
Sorry if I sounded like a douche but I have been a lurker in this stats topic since 03(different account) and I only post once in a blue moon also. If i somehow offended you or sound even elitist, sorry I am.

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
MrSmartGuy | Posted 6/3/2009 11:36:58 PM | message detail
Yeah, I kinda figured that out. -__-

That's when I realized I should probably clarify a few things.....

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Xbox GT/PSN name: TatteredUniform - SSBB FC: 1891-0831-5747 (TEETS)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 11:36:59 PM | message detail
Yeah, I do wonder how well Brawl's going to do on TP tomorrow. This match basically just confirms that Galaxy is just really, really weak. I don't expect Brawl to obliterate TP tomorrow. Still thinkin' Brawl > TP is a likely scenario tomorrow if MGS4/RE4 goes like MGS3/RE4.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 11:37:55 PM | message detail
Basically, whoever advances here today has a free pass to the finals with OoT, whether it's FFX or RBY. If FFX can't beat it here, MGS4 or RE4 sure ain't gonna do it next round.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Lopen | Posted 6/3/2009 11:39:16 PM | message detail
What the hell happened to Melee.

Well, anyway... c'mon Pokemanz!
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No problem!
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MrSmartGuy | Posted 6/3/2009 11:39:31 PM | message detail
Ah, I see. I was wondering why FFX was a lock for the finals already, but I thought Brawl > MGS4 was the favorite tomorrow, for some reason.

OoT > FFX makes a lot more sense with Brawl and TP in the mix.

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Xbox GT/PSN name: TatteredUniform - SSBB FC: 1891-0831-5747 (TEETS)
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ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 6/3/2009 11:39:39 PM | message detail
but that LttP>FFVII upset does seem silly now.

And here right from the beginning of when the bracket was shown, I thought LttP was the clear-cut favorite to win first in LTTP vs. FFVI vs. FFVII vs. CT .. I didn't even think about it at all and was complete struck on LTTP winning, I seriously thought FFVII had 0% chance .. Boy, i feel stupid for doubting FFVII. <.<

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
ZFS | Posted 6/3/2009 11:40:05 PM | message detail
i see lopen has joined the dark side

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 11:40:24 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #060
What the hell happened to Melee.

Well, anyway... c'mon Pokemanz!


Yeah, I never thought I'd see Melee under 15% in any match
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 11:40:32 PM | message detail
Brawl > MGS4 probably still IS the favorite tomorrow, but after how badly MGS4 did last round, it won't beat FFX or RBY next round, regardless of who's there.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MrSmartGuy | Posted 6/3/2009 11:42:05 PM | message detail
But wouldn't the fact that it just isn't 3 Nintendo games vs. FFX make its chances worse? I can't see how taking out Pokemon and Melee and putting in Brawl and something that isn't Nintendo would help its odds.

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Xbox GT/PSN name: TatteredUniform - SSBB FC: 1891-0831-5747 (TEETS)
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Lopen | Posted 6/3/2009 11:42:06 PM | message detail
Hey HM I've always been on the dark side this contest haven't you been paying attention?

It's the stupid ass 4ChanFadMon I can't stand.

(Though in honesty I like FFX a bit better... Pokemanz taking this is a bit more interesting result)
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 11:42:32 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #065
Brawl > MGS4 probably still IS the favorite tomorrow, but after how badly MGS4 did last round, it won't beat FFX or RBY next round, regardless of who's there.


Also I'm not sure how much Brawl is gonna sff TP into the ground after seeing this match. It mgiht be more of a LFF situation then a total SFF beatdown
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 11:44:46 PM | message detail
But wouldn't the fact that it just isn't 3 Nintendo games vs. FFX make its chances worse? I can't see how taking out Pokemon and Melee and putting in Brawl and something that isn't Nintendo would help its odds.

Well, if it's OoT/FFX/Brawl/MGS4, FFX wins because it's stronger than MGS4. FFX did better on Melee last round than MGS4 did on Brawl.

If it's OoT/RBY/Brawl/MGS4, RBY still wins because FFX is still stronger than MGS4 so if it beats FFX, it's beating MGS4.

That's how I see it.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/3/2009 11:46:34 PM | message detail
And here right from the beginning of when the bracket was shown, I thought LttP was the clear-cut favorite to win first in LTTP vs. FFVI vs. FFVII vs. CT .. I didn't even think about it at all and was complete struck on LTTP winning, I seriously thought FFVII had 0% chance .. Boy, i feel stupid for doubting FFVII. <.<

Well, the only scenario where I might see FFVII or Ocarina losing to a third entrant is still with LttP (or the strongest Mario) in a match absolutely brimming with overlapped, 3D Final Fantasies. Especially if it was the bottom option and the poll read something like this:

Final Fantasy VII
Final Fantasy VIII
Final Fantasy IX
Super Mario Bros. 3

Then I juuuuust might see the Nintendo powerhouse pulling it off, but even then, FFVII is a huge favorite and could probably SFF whatever it wanted whenever it needed.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 11:47:02 PM | message detail
FFX should be doing a SSBM type freefall during the asv tomorrow
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/3/2009 11:47:52 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised if Pokemon was making 100 vote cuts consistently in fact I damn near expect it

cya ffx
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 6/3/2009 11:48:48 PM | message detail
Yo also falling to the dark side with outrageous prediction =)

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
MrSmartGuy | Posted 6/3/2009 11:52:24 PM | message detail
Eh, unfortunately, I still don't see FFX surviving this round. That's just how I am; everything I want desperately to not happen always happens, so I know Pokemon will end up making a tremendous comeback after being down about 1400. Bank on it.

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Xbox GT/PSN name: TatteredUniform - SSBB FC: 1891-0831-5747 (TEETS)
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 11:57:46 PM | message detail
Why is everyone so down on FFX? Isn't outright winning one of Pokemon's best times good enough for you?! Picky picky!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Smurf Alt | Posted 6/4/2009 12:01:41 AM | message detail

From: ExquisiteSamurai | #051
If its only 1000, RBY has to be the favorite


-_-
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/4/2009 12:02:00 AM | message detail
SSBM wasn't ever really in contention for this match. It's looked the least impressive in probably every round, SSB's the newest series represented, SSBB has over-shadowed SSBM ever since Solid Snake was announced, LoZ and Pokemon had more representation in SSBM than any other series, and it's the biggest Gamecube game fighting against the biggest Game Boy game and the biggest Nintendo 64 game.

Also, as a big side-note, there's a decent correlation that suggests multi-player games just don't hold up here like single-player games for the most part. SSBB just this year broke the trend of every GotY focusing on single-player, and the top five games of 2004 and The List were all single-player games. Also, since the N64 largely introduced multi-player and had some classics in this contest, we saw PD < MK64 < GE < SM64 < LoZ:OoT for sure, and I wonder if LoZ:MM could sneak into the #3 spot (and I bet SSB wouldn't beat LoZ:MM if it stayed in the bracket). For this site and perhaps in general, people just prefer single-player games.

That's not to take away from the SSB-games' successes here as the strongest multi-player force around; they certainly should be respected despite focusing on more than one player at a time, plus I know you can go head-to-head against people in Pokemon after you raise your own first or take turns in games like SMB3 and SMW. Just saying, look at Halo 1/2/3, CoD4, any MMO, any Blizzard game, any other fighting series, and any other "party" game. Compare the single-to-multi ratio with the games that made this bracket, then again with the games that escaped their divisions. Do the same with 2004's bracket.


The SSB-series is the big exception for multi-player popularity here, and even then, it could only do so well in a situation like this. Stretched out point on multi-VS-single aside, it had several other bad things against it that's kept it from ever being in contention today.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
Mac Arrowny | Posted 6/4/2009 12:06:06 AM | message detail
Well, the only scenario where I might see FFVII or Ocarina losing to a third entrant is still with LttP (or the strongest Mario) in a match absolutely brimming with overlapped, 3D Final Fantasies. Especially if it was the bottom option and the poll read something like this:

Final Fantasy VII
Final Fantasy VIII
Final Fantasy IX
Super Mario Bros. 3

Then I juuuuust might see the Nintendo powerhouse pulling it off, but even then, FFVII is a huge favorite and could probably SFF whatever it wanted whenever it needed.


Make that R/B/Y instead of SMB3 or LttP and it's even more likely, I think. You could switch FFIX for FFVI that way too, and not have to worry about console overlap bringing it down at all.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/4/2009 12:35:31 AM | message detail
FFX currently has over 62% on Melee. I can't believe Melee is being thrown to the fire like this for Pokemon.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 6/4/2009 12:36:42 AM | message detail
LoZ and Pokemon had more representation in SSBM than any other series,

Mario
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
Gaddswell | Posted 6/4/2009 12:38:22 AM | message detail
Pokemon's percentage actually hasn't budged that much. It's all Melee giving it up to FFX.

Makes me think that in the day it's mostly Melee that takes from FFX.
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creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 12:46:28 AM | message detail
(and I bet SSB wouldn't beat LoZ:MM if it stayed in the bracket).

I wouldn't bet that, at all.
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consolefreak | Posted 6/4/2009 12:46:28 AM | message detail
RBY went from 50% on MGS pre-ASV to 55% with the ASV. It's now at 47% on FFX. Between FFX's best hours coming up and it already having a better day vote than MGS, I don't see RBY shaving off a lot of votes in the day, if any at all. FFX is still stinking it up though. I expected a lot better.
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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino
creativename | Posted 6/4/2009 12:51:48 AM | message detail
Y eah I was thinking that depending on how the SFF played out, FFX could impress yet lose, or do poor yet win.

FFX was able to go even with RBY during the Power Hour, which makes things look bad for RBY. If I hadn't just read some posts by red sox, who's the best of us with trends, on how RBY could still come back I'd consider this match done.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/4/2009 1:13:16 AM | message detail
A 7.82% update for Melee. Painful to watch
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
greatone10 | Posted 6/4/2009 1:24:17 AM | message detail
FFX's crappy performance in this match but still advancing can only mean one thing. RE4 is still advancing to the finals!
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/4/2009 1:27:32 AM | message detail
Why do people blame FFX for Melee doing so poorly?

OoT is murdering it.

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[ FINAL FOUR ] FFVII / SMB3 / LoZ: OoT / MGS
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=161
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/4/2009 1:28:37 AM | message detail

From: Dilated Chemist | #087
Why do people blame FFX for Melee doing so poorly?


And where exactly are these mysterious people doing that
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/4/2009 1:28:39 AM | message detail
The Smash franchise shall have it's revenge when Brawl murders TP.

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[ FINAL FOUR ] FFVII / SMB3 / LoZ: OoT / MGS
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=161
Sonic_Factor | Posted 6/4/2009 1:29:14 AM | message detail
ffx was 3 votes away that update from cutting oot
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
greatone10 | Posted 6/4/2009 1:32:00 AM | message detail

From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 6/4/2009 1:28:39 AM | #089
The Smash franchise shall have it's revenge when Brawl murders TP.


Only for OoT to smack down Brawl with a fury.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
Smurf Alt | Posted 6/4/2009 1:32:02 AM | message detail
Pokemon is dying here, this is over.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/4/2009 1:33:40 AM | message detail
Dying? I was more impressed by how stable it was. the last half hour was still above 21%. It's barely budging from start to now
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/4/2009 1:41:43 AM | message detail
God damn OoT is annihilating Melee.

And i still dissagree about BRawl>Melee. Brawl has NOT had tough competition yet and hasn't had another stronger Nintendo game in the poll. We'll see how Strong BRawl is next round. It will beat out TP but i can tell you OoT would SFF Brawl Even more.
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Playing: COD4 | Ninja Gaiden Black | Devil Summoner 2
Favourite game ever - Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
Zylo the wolf | Posted 6/4/2009 1:55:26 AM | message detail
Well at least this proves that Meele isn't the 3rd strongest game on this site.

And I think it's obvious that Resident Evil 4 will get to the final with winning in ANOTHER close match with a Ps2 game.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me
Janus5000 | Posted 6/4/2009 2:35:28 AM | message detail
I don't get how Pokemon can cut OoT yet FFX can't, even with its beastly night vote. Which isn't over, I guess... still, RBY had cut it by this point!

Also, sub-7% update for Melee. Beautiful, yet saddening.
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/4/2009 2:48:18 AM | message detail
FFX has managed over 59% against Pokemon in the past 2 hours. That's technically a little better than it did against KH during the same hours. KH turned it into ~55% with the DSV and then ~49% with the ASV vote.

In order words, Pokemon is going to have to do quite a bit better than KH to win here. I imagine it has a better morning and DSV than KH though so that helps
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/4/2009 2:48:24 AM | message detail
V-O-T-E T-O-T-A-L S-T-A-T-S

Zelda: A Link to the Past kept about 66.21% of its votes from last round, about 53.52% from the round before that, and about 45.11% of its votes from the first round. Apparently Super Mario 64 hurts it more than Super Metroid and Link's Awakening combined, which...makes sense.

Final Fantasy VI kept about 47.42% of its votes from last round, about 42.83% of its votes from the round before that, and about 39.7% of its votes from the first round. Seems like Final Fantasy VII really laid a beating on it, which is sad seeing how there are many dissenters that like it more (like me, though both are top-notch titles).

Final Fantasy VII kept about 94.47% of its votes from last round, about 92.89% of its votes from the round before that, and about 74.24% of its votes from the first round. No amount of LFF has hurt it much all contest, and it's seeming like a lock to win. Can we retire it next time?

Super Mario 64 kept about 98.86% of its votes from last round, 64.64% of its votes from the round before, and about 54.97% of its votes from the first round. Well, seems like Zelda 3 hurt it only slightly more than GoldenEye.

1. Final Fantasy VII (Round 3)
2. Final Fantasy VII (Round 4)
3. Zelda: Ocarina of Time (Round 3)
4. Zelda: A Link to the Past (Round 3)
5. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Round 3)
6. Super Mario Bros. (Round 3)
7. Super Smash Bros. Melee (Round 3)
8. Zelda: Twilight Princess (Round 3)
9. The Legend of Zelda (Round 3)
10. Final Fantasy VI (Round 3)
11. Super Mario Bros. 3 (Round 3)
12. Super Mario World (Round 3)
13. Super Mario World (Round 4)
14. Final Fantasy X (Round 3)
15. Super Mario Bros. 3 (Round 4)
16. The Legend of Zelda (Round 4)
17. Metal Gear Solid 4 (Round 3)
18. Resident Evil 4 (Round 3)
19. Metal Gear Solid 3 (Round 3)
20. Super Mario 64 (Round 3)
21. Zelda: A Link to the Past (Round 4)
22. Super Mario 64 (Round 4)
23. Pokemon Red/Blue (Round 3)
24. Chrono Trigger (Round 3)
25. Kingdom Hearts (Round 3)
26. Metal Gear Solid (Round 3)
27. Oblivion (Round 3)
28. Fallout 3 (Round 3)
29. Final Fantasy IV (Round 3)
30. Final Fantasy VIII (Round 3)
31. Diablo II (Round 3)
32. Call of Duty 4 (Round 3)
33. Super Metroid (Round 3)
34. GoldenEye (Round 3)
35. Tetris (Round 3)
36. Final Fantasy VI (Round 4)
37. Sonic the Hedgehog (Round 3)
38. Mega Man 2 (Round 3)
39. Zelda: Link’s Awakening (Round 3)
40. Super Mario Bros. (Round 4)
paulg235 | Posted 6/4/2009 2:53:37 AM | message detail
As the Melee announcer would say;
FAILURE
Nice recovery by FFX.
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The Gamer In Me
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/4/2009 3:02:46 AM | message detail
FFX cuts OoT to start the 6th hour
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