GameFAQs Contests

Poor Melee.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

"paulg235" got to make one of these topics?

---
I'm back. Some things never change... like this sig. Don't get the joke? Yes you do.
# of days since I've consumed alcohol: 0

Melee is getting its ass kicked.
---
Text.

From: Caelus | Posted: 6/4/2009 12:07:14 AM | #002
"paulg235" got to make one of these topics?

I don't care who makes these as long as they post in the stats topic now and then.
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Final Fantasy X rightfully deserves to beat Melee's brains in. 5 years of vengeance!
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 6/4/2009 12:27:40 AM | #005
Final Fantasy X rightfully deserves to beat Melee's brains in. 5 years of vengeance!

This is not a legit match, hush. Not that I totally disagree, but hey.
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

This is not a legit match

Then we're even!
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Geez, it's not like I've shown up out of nowhere a posted the next 20 of them. I think I've posted in like 9 out of every 10 topics since thus contest begun.

Anyway, lol Melee. Also, FFX isn't doing as great as I expected it to do.
---
The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158

Oh, I think FFX has a great shot here.

I guess we just disagree in terms of extent. You say it has a great shot. I say it's the overwhelming favorite.
---
Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

From: paulg235 | Posted: 6/4/2009 12:29:01 AM | #008
Geez, it's not like I've shown up out of nowhere a posted the next 20 of them. I think I've posted in like 9 out of every 10 topics since thus contest begun.

I was only annoyed at the beginning because no one had ever seen you post. It took TRE looking through archives to clean up the mess.

But you post a lot more here now, so it's all good. All we've asked <3
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Maybe I'm wrong here, I dunno. I was just looking at other matches like that and thinking it didn't mean much for RBY. The way you're saying it though is that basically whatever RBY has in the morning is probably what it'll finish with?

Besides, RBY gained 2100 votes on MGS starting from about 100. It's going to be harder to do the same on FFX down 1500.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Personally I think being stuck in the poll with OoT is just a bit more of a disadvantage than being represented by Tidus, Leon!

---
http://thengamer.com/guru/

So Pokemon RBY beats FFX decisively 1vs1?

---
Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII

Ha, I came into the board from off a GameFAQs completely, saw a topic at 498, and posted "What?" because I was shocked at it being there.

I actually got the 500. >_>
---
Q. If your canoe is in a tree with its headlights on, how many pancakes does it take to get to the moon?
A. None. Snakes don't have armpits.

FFX is the favorite now, and Melee isn't coming back from 2500- that would be Magus/Sandbag or Frog/Axel levels of day vote contrast. 2000 is not completely out of the realm of possibility, but I'd feel very good about FFX with a 2000 vote lead at 3 PM.
---
Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Besides, FFX is doing much better right now than MGS was at this same time. MGS was still down 300 and not really making any moves. FFX is up 400 right now and gaining.

Yeah, the last two days of Nintendo games gaining 1000+ votes on Nintendo games makes these massive day vote comebacks look easy!
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Personally I think being stuck in the poll with OoT is just a bit more of a disadvantage than being represented by Tidus, Leon!

That's a lie and you know it
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Whoops, I mean RBY isn't coming back from 2500. Melee might just be able to if it were the game in that situation!
---
Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

From: ExquisiteSamurai | #013
So Pokemon RBY beats FFX decisively 1vs1?

I'm not sure if it wins at all. I don't think Pokemon would translate well 1v1. Would love to see it, but those hypotheticals are pipe dreams now.
---
Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Like I said, RBY was only able to gain 2100 votes on MGS starting at less than 100. It's not going to gain that much on FFX. If it's down 2000 votes going into the ASV, it's over. Even KHII's mighty day vote could only come back from 1200 on that.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

I'm calling Pokemon making an epic comeback just to spite my bracket. >=(

---
*insert shameless plug for Hotel Dusk: Room 215 here*

What trends are you citing that give FFX some 2500 vote lead?
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Exactly. At this rate, I don't see FFX even breaking 1500, personally.

---
Xbox GT/PSN name: TatteredUniform - SSBB FC: 1891-0831-5747 (TEETS)
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/TatteredUniform.png

We're talking theoreticals. FFX could do it anyway though. It should probably be up at least 1000-1500 if not more than that when morning arrives.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

And like I said, RBY ain't cuttin' FFX like crazy with the morning vote, so FFX could push it out to 2000 with the DSV, too.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

FFX really does want to get up to a 1300-1400 lead by 6 though. That isn't all that easy, given that we've already gone through like 60% of the votes from 12 to 6.
---
Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

I fully expect RBY to start a massive charge and go past FFX later. Hope it doesn't, but...

---
http://www.philosophynow.org/issue58/58kirby.htm
Currently playing: Persona 3 FES

I can't even see it breaking 1000, in which case it's at the mercy of two different day votes. It would have to pray Ocarina's SFF day vote crushes Pokemon's day vote. Pokemon is in a very good spot to win this.
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

RBY is holding up like a champ here. its still going up in %
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

1500 is definitely doable...but the Europe hours are going to put FFX up by a good 2000 votes.

---
http://thengamer.com/guru/

I can't even see it breaking 1000

It's already up 431 and we're not even in FFX's best time yet.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

FFX isn't getting any 2000 lead overnight here. 1500 is stretching it.
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

FFX shouldn't have much trouble getting past 1000. I'd be surprised if it couldn't manage that.

---
http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif

There really isn't that much of a difference between the morning vote and the DSV with most things. Smash and KH spoil us with their bad morning and DSVs, giving the impression that night games can gain all the way to 3 PM. They usually can't really do that, and spend the DSV trying to patch up the damage done by the morning.
---
Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

1000 is easily reachable, I think the lead will at least extend to 1500+

---
Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII

I wouldn't. Also, from reading the last topic, I saw that when FFX looked to get second, people were saying our finals were set. How so?

---
Xbox GT/PSN name: TatteredUniform - SSBB FC: 1891-0831-5747 (TEETS)
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/TatteredUniform.png

I'm predicting 1400 or so here by 6 am
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

I'm predicting 1400 or so here by 6 am

Sounds good to me! 3rd close match in a row here we come.
---
Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #037
I'm predicting 1400 or so here by 6 am

I'll bet on a little over half that, maybe........ 800? Just a slightly-educated guess, but I'd say about there.

---
Xbox GT/PSN name: TatteredUniform - SSBB FC: 1891-0831-5747 (TEETS)
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/TatteredUniform.png

I wouldn't. Also, from reading the last topic, I saw that when FFX looked to get second, people were saying our finals were set. How so?

How is it not? What's gonna stop LttP and FFX upon reaching the finals with FFVII and OoT

---
Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII

Nah, I'm probably just exaggerating, I'll say it breaks 1000 about then.

---
Xbox GT/PSN name: TatteredUniform - SSBB FC: 1891-0831-5747 (TEETS)
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/TatteredUniform.png

the dead hours should be doing about similiar gains as it is now... just because it'll be bigger percentage gains doesn't mean the vote gains will be any bigger since dead hours have so few votes.
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

From: ExquisiteSamurai | #040
I wouldn't. Also, from reading the last topic, I saw that when FFX looked to get second, people were saying our finals were set. How so?

How is it not? What's gonna stop LttP and FFX upon reaching the finals with FFVII and OoT

I don't know, that's why I'm asking.

---
Xbox GT/PSN name: TatteredUniform - SSBB FC: 1891-0831-5747 (TEETS)
http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/TatteredUniform.png

If FFX wins here (and it shouldn't have much trouble doing so), Brawl or MGS4 aren't gonna beat it next round, and LttP shouldn't lose to either Mario game. FFVII/LttP/OoT/FFX seems like a near guarantee right now.

---
http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif

Let's see. A typical night vote brings in about 20,000 votes. We've seen approximately half of them already. At the rate it's going, FFX will lead by 744 by morning. Of course, FFX's current rate will increase by the end of the night, so it could get to 1000. Should be close though.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

OOT and RBY are holding up pretty well so far as we move into the night, while Melee is dying. At this rate it'll be getting a lot of sub-10% updates once we get past 4.
---
Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

From your post, aren't you implying that LttP and FFX going to the finals is not clear-cut?

---
Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII

From: LeonhartFour | #045
Let's see. A typical night vote brings in about 20,000 votes. We've seen approximately half of them already. At the rate it's going, FFX will lead by 744 by morning. Of course, FFX's current rate will increase by the end of the night, so it could get to 1000. Should be close though.

If its only 1000, RBY has to be the favorite.
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

The thing is, FFX will gain until the ASV. RBY won't be gaining on it like it did on MGS last round. It should make it to 1500 by the ASV.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Gaining on it during the morning, I should say.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."