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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 741

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:00:40 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1644

That's why.
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I've been waiting for this moment all my life - it's my destiny.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/3/2009 8:00:43 PM | message detail
My match prediction:

We've got the Best. Game. Ever., along with...three titles that are in tier 2 for me. All three of those games have a chance at taking 2nd place, so let's investigate them all.

Super Smash Bros. Melee, the best fighter on the GameCube, is probably least likely to take 2nd place. On the one hand it looks like the kind of game with a hardcore fanbase, but I just think that it will get SFFd by Zelda 64 here. Sure it didn't feel SFF from the entire Mario series, but that's because most Ninty fans who came in with the GameCube liked Melee more than Mario Sunshine, which was the decline of Mario anyways (odd seeing how Super Mario Sunshine is more critically acclaimed than Super Smash Bros. Melee, but whatever). This is OCARINA OF TIME, on the other hand.

Pokemon Red/Blue stood up very well to Zelda 64 last round, but is it possible that Metal Gear Solid was being SFFd by Ocarina of Time? It seems that the MGS series has not been doing very well against Nintendo, which could explain why Pokemon won against MGS; not necessarily because it was resisting SFF, but because MGS was getting hurt there. Then again, I'm throwing that theory out.

Final Fantasy X is probably stronger than Pokemon period, and will probably advance here.

Prediction: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Final Fantasy X
Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 40%, Pokemon Red/Blue - 20%, Super Smash Bros. Melee - 19%, Final Fantasy X - 21%
Bracket: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid (grrr)
Favorites: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Pokemon Red/Blue (go Pokemon! Kill these rehashes!)
Favorites Bracket: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid
xp1337 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:01:18 PM | message detail
So why is everyone so sure that lttp would hurt OOT more than what Mario 64 would in the finals?

I imagine it's because it's hard to imagine LttP could do any worse than SM64 did when it went 1v1 against OoT in 2k4. Of course, it's impossible to know if it'd still be that bad if a rematch were held.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:01:57 PM | message detail
1 hour to go, Mario needs 19.58 votes per update to come back.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 8:02:44 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #154
1 hour to go, Mario needs 19.58 votes per update to come back.


we just need a few 50 vote spikes from those cheaters
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Neosadus | Posted 6/3/2009 8:05:45 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1644

That's why.


Im not trying to undermine a previous match. But that's a two way. Is there a two way match between LTTP and OOT aswell?

I dunno, but the reason i asked my question is this: Wouldn't Zelda fans be more prone to vote for the better zelda game? Or would Mario fans be more prone to vote for the better zelda game?
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:06:31 PM | message detail
better zelda game

There's your problem.
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I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 6/3/2009 8:07:39 PM | message detail
We've never seen an entity cheat steal back-to-back matches before now. Is Mario shameless enough to pull it off tonight?
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turnturnturn your brain in
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paulg235 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:07:51 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:08:22 PM | message detail
From: paulg235 | #158
That was NOT a good update for LttP.

Please stop posting.
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No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow.
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transience | Posted 6/3/2009 8:08:46 PM | message detail
well this looks very much over.

come on 11:45
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xyzzy
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Yesmar | Posted 6/3/2009 8:08:50 PM | message detail
Once again why are we arguing that the closer two games are the worse the LFF affects the stronger or whatever? The worse OoT's opponent does, the better *everyone* does, not just OoT. There's not like 50% of the Nintendo vote that these games are forced to split or anything.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
xp1337 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:09:19 PM | message detail
That was NOT a good update for LttP.

I'm sure LttP would be thrilled if a Cut of 8 can be counted among its bad updates for the rest of the match.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/3/2009 8:10:46 PM | message detail
I want to see someone stuff 30,000 votes in an update. I find it very hard to believe that the software/technology for this is not out there.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
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tennisboy213 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:11:03 PM | message detail
A lot of people, including myself, think LTTP is better than OOT.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 8:11:15 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #164
I want to see someone stuff 30,000 votes in an update. I find it very hard to believe that the software/technology for this is not out there.


oh man
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xp1337 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:11:18 PM | message detail
Different question. Does FF7 stay above 40%? It still seems to be dropping.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:11:22 PM | message detail
That's really not true- that is what LFF is all about, actually. If X does worse against OOT because it is weaker than Y, then yes, it does not matter because it affects all the games equally. If X does worse than Y because X gets SFFed harder, while both have the same amount of disproportionate overlap with OOT, then Y hurts OOT more than X.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/3/2009 8:12:11 PM | message detail
Mario cutting more than 222 votes in the final 50 minutes seems unlikely. Frog could have done that.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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iGenesis | Posted 6/3/2009 8:12:17 PM | message detail
tennisboy213 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:11:03 PM | message detail
A lot of people, including myself, think LTTP is better than OOT.

Most people, including myself, think OoT is better than ALttP.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:13:53 PM | message detail
Mario gained 518 votes on Crono in the final 52 minutes of Mario/Crono 2.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 8:15:20 PM | message detail
does anyone want to see my pokeymanz
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xp1337 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:16:36 PM | message detail
Mario gained 518 votes on Crono in the final 52 minutes of Mario/Crono 2.

2k2 and 2k3 Mario is just in a whole different category though. I think Starcraft is the only other entity I'd put in that tier.

Even Frog has nothing on the downright ridiculous things Mario did back then.

SMB3 yesterday was nothing but a shadow of Mario's more infamous comebacks.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:17:47 PM | message detail
In fact, here's the updates for Mario's ridiculous final 2 hours. Note that matches in 2003 usually began before midnight, when CJayC manually updated the poll, but most started around 11:45. Mario/Crono II started at 11:40, so it ended up running 24:27. Mario also won the board vote pretty big, so he did not win any consecutive segment of 24 hours.

22:00 Mario | 60646 | 49.68% | Crono | 61435 | 50.32% | lead of 789 | ( up 15 )
22:15 Mario | 61261 | 49.69% | Crono | 62024 | 50.31% | lead of 763 | ( down 26 )
22:30 Mario | 61883 | 49.73% | Crono | 62558 | 50.27% | lead of 675 | ( down 88 )
22:45 Mario | 62520 | 49.77% | Crono | 63091 | 50.23% | lead of 571 | ( down 104 )
23:00 Mario | 63150 | 49.80% | Crono | 63661 | 50.20% | lead of 511 | ( down 60 )
23:15 Mario | 63823 | 49.85% | Crono | 64204 | 50.15% | lead of 381 | ( down 130 )
23:30 Mario | 64531 | 49.89% | Crono | 64826 | 50.11% | lead of 295 | ( down 86 )
23:45 Mario | 65273 | 49.94% | Crono | 65424 | 50.06% | lead of 151 | ( down 144 )
24:00 Mario | 66266 | 50.03% | Crono | 66174 | 49.97% | lead of 92 | ( up 243 )
24:07 Mario | 66571 | 50.05% | Crono | 66434 | 49.95% | lead of 137 | ( up 45 )
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Yesmar | Posted 6/3/2009 8:19:57 PM | message detail
If X does worse than Y because X gets SFFed harder, while both have the same amount of disproportionate overlap with OOT, then Y hurts OOT more than X.

But if X and Y both LFF one entrant down to say 30.00 on BL, why does it matter how low they go? You can use that after the fact, if one entrant is hurt badly enough, but not ahead of time. I would imagine LFF works more in line with affecting Base Link numbers than with the percentage in the poll; I guess we just disagree.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
Piazza | Posted 6/3/2009 8:21:04 PM | message detail
I'll never forget the boards reaction to that match. It went absolutely insane. Even better was the next day people who went to bed early were so amazed at the comeback in disbelief that they kept asking if Ceej had messed up the bracket and mistakenly labeled Mario the winner. It was just chaos.
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Yesmar | Posted 6/3/2009 8:22:35 PM | message detail
Even Frog has nothing on the downright ridiculous things Mario did back then.

What did Mario do in 2K2? Planet Gamecube posted the link but other than that, nothing seems suspicious looking back. Mario's comeback against Cloud is in line with trends for entrants from recent games (Kratos has similar numbers against Alucard, and I think Kingdom Hearts might too in 2006), and Mario should have beaten Crono with close to 51% once you take away all of Crono's stuffed votes.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
HaRRicH | Posted 6/3/2009 8:22:47 PM | message detail
GodDAMN. I had forgotten how big of a turn-around that was. I don't think we'll see come-backs that huge again.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/3/2009 8:23:22 PM | message detail
Hah, I remember HM going to sleep before it all went down.

Anyway, I just started a new FFX file, and I did it for a reason.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
xp1337 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:23:47 PM | message detail
Mario/Crono II was the match that got me to actively lurk Board 8, I think, and probably the match that definitely got me interested in the contests ever since.

At a time I thought it was the first match I came to Board 8 for, but since then I've remembered seeing the Link/Magus hype (Oh, how far we've moved from that) that was going on here, so I was here a bit earlier.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/3/2009 8:24:47 PM | message detail
Mario gained 518 votes on Crono in the final 52 minutes of Mario/Crono 2.

That's more insane than anything Frog has done.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 8:25:23 PM | message detail
There were probably a lot less anti-cheating methods in place back then
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 8:25:48 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #182
There were probably a lot less anti-cheating methods in place back then


Yes, as in... there were none
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 8:25:56 PM | message detail
Yep, I went to bed thinking Crono had in won. Woke up in the morning before school to vote on Sephy/Alucard and decided to check how much Crono ended up winning by. Absolute shock.

Heh, I remember going to school with a guy who paid attention to the contests, and I told him Mario ended up winning. Absolute shock, and he was ticked off, too.
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ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 6/3/2009 8:26:24 PM | message detail
I guess we won't be seeing those weird spikes tonight .. <.< .. Albion, Hochi, you guys given up?

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 8:27:11 PM | message detail
I have, its too big of a lead
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Yesmar | Posted 6/3/2009 8:27:14 PM | message detail
That's more insane than anything Frog has done.

Frog's numbers from the height of Axel's peak lead, to when he took back the lead an hour and a half later are actually bigger, once you adjust for the difference in votals (Keep in mind that "Axel/Frog" only got 50,000 votes.)
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
tennisboy213 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:27:26 PM | message detail
they're just waiting...
red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:27:33 PM | message detail
But if X and Y both LFF one entrant down to say 30.00 on BL, why does it matter how low they go? You can use that after the fact, if one entrant is hurt badly enough, but not ahead of time. I would imagine LFF works more in line with affecting Base Link numbers than with the percentage in the poll; I guess we just disagree.

I don't see the distinction here between before/after and BL numbers/poll percentages. LFF always hurts both characters, the extent of the SFF determines who is hurt more. The damage is "shared-out," so to speak. Preserving the actual strength and overlap relationship of 2 games, and just changing the amount of SFF between them, the total amount of damage remains the same.
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ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 6/3/2009 8:30:20 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: Mario to get four 50 vote spikes in the last four updates!

BELIEVE!

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 8:30:50 PM | message detail
under 200
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:31:15 PM | message detail
Oh hey, Cheatario has woken up!
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:31:21 PM | message detail
22 vote cut there. Mario needs 32.33~ per update to tie.
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tennisboy213 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:31:23 PM | message detail
22 vote cut
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 8:32:04 PM | message detail
Don't give up until 11:45
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/3/2009 8:32:35 PM | message detail
Current lead: 194
Updates left: 6
Votes per update: 32.33~

If you're gonna do it, paison...
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 8:32:36 PM | message detail
11:45 Down 80
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
paulg235 | Posted 6/3/2009 8:32:57 PM | message detail
http://www.darkknightandjoekerr.com/AndHereWeGo.gif

(Last time I'm posting that Gif)
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/3/2009 8:33:05 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: Mario to get four 50 vote spikes in the last four updates!

There are 6 updates left, not 4. So it's less than 50 vote cuts.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 8:35:46 PM | message detail
OVER
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."