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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 741

paulg235 | Posted 6/3/2009 2:30:16 PM | message detail
How many close matches do you want, Mario?


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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The Gamer In Me
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 3:47:29 PM | message detail
We've got a topic making lurker here.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 5:38:09 PM | message detail
I think he's trying to catch up to Ulti.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 5:39:24 PM | message detail
KP, are you honestly trying to say the difference in Pikachu and Charizards strength would be the difference between Tidus and Auron? Pikachu is the strongest pokemon for a reason; its the face of the franchise.
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http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
PegasusLover123 | Posted 6/3/2009 5:39:27 PM | message detail
If mario doesn't start riding the shell soon, Link is gonna hookshot his way to victory.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 6/3/2009 5:39:31 PM | message detail
Tag
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/3/2009 5:40:22 PM | message detail
Zen Analyzes the Match Pic!

Seasons don't fear the Picsmith. Nor do the wind, the sun and the rain.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-59-1.jpg

For some reason when I see this I instantly remember this:

http://img200.imageshack.us/img200/6627/rutovt1.jpg

I think I made that like 3 years ago when I didn't know what Photoshop was. Probably better than Atlas Hale anyway!

So, hmm, this pic is strange. Jynx is the first black chick ever in a pic I believe. GameFAQs: Breaking racial barriers one at a time.I honestly can't say I'm thrilled with the blurry art choices of Zelda, Peach and Rikku but whatever boobs

Overall: 9/10
Balanced?: No
Gimmicky?: No
Advantage: Black Booty



http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-59-2.jpg

Submitted version:

http://img34.imageshack.us/img34/2254/r4pokemonrby6x.png

lol kp mess up. This is the second time Bacon has edited a user image. The first was Smilin' Squall. Good, good times.

I've liked this one since KP showed me. You know he made all these based around Pokemon? That's why the URL for all six of his pics for this match all say "Pokemon" and not "1998-2000" or something. Oh KP.

The only thing I can complain about here is that Jecht is in the pic. He was barely in the game! I love him to death but we could have fit at least one of Lulu's boobs in that space.

And I think that...

...

YES! PUNCH!

Overall: 9.5/10
Balanced?: Yes
Gimmicky?: No
Advantage: CAPTAIN FALCON



http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-59-3.jpg

Oooo, can't give this one as high a score because it's so clearly Poke-biased. I like it though but dammit KP you can't just make a cool Pokemon pic and pad it with semi-cool pics from the other games!

Whatever I love that OoT art and FFX art so I can't complain. You could have put Falcon's nipples in there though.

Overall: 8/10
Balanced?: Slightly to Pokemon
Gimmicky?: No
Advantage: Pokemons



http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-59-4.jpg

I really like this one. I dunno why. I don't like the blurry boxes though. Blurry works but it's slightly overkill. I give my appreciation to the background. Beautiful. But I don't think I would have picked cape Mario and Blastoise as my character renders.

Overall: 8.5/10
Balanced?: Yes
Gimmicky?: No
Advantage: BLASTOISE: the best dad.



http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-59-5.jpg

WHY NOT BLITZBALL. I don't even remember a Chocobo minigame. The FFX pic is TERRIBLE. Why not Tidus and Wakka floating underwater or something? Blitzball wasn't the best minigame ever but you were force to play it and everyone has been crushed by Lucca at least once.

And the Melee pic is SO BLURRY. Granted it was probably a ***** to even find a pic of that minigame but WE PICSMITHS MAKE NO EXCUSES. It took me forever to find a decent picture of SON OF A SUBMARINER but I did! ...From a Youtube video! BUT A YOUTUBE VIDEO ON HIGH QUALITY! AND I SHARPENED IT! CAPS!

Other two pics are fine. No complaints there. Major point dockage for the other two though.

Overall: 5.5/10
Balanced?: Not really
Gimmicky?: Eh, not particularly, but the focus on minigames is kinda random. Creative, though.
Advantage: Pokemon




Summary:

Best pic: 2
Worst pic: 5
Most controversial: 1
Overall Advantage: Pokemon
Overall Disadvantage: FFX probably

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transience | Posted 6/3/2009 5:40:33 PM | message detail
man, that one stall by LTTP might have killed this match.

what's the consensus here? LTTP the favourite?
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 5:41:19 PM | message detail
well that update sucked. Mario is done me thinks
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paulg235 | Posted 6/3/2009 5:42:11 PM | message detail
329 votes to cut. 2 hours and 20 minutes to do so. Mario 64 still has this IMO.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 5:42:55 PM | message detail
Whoa, great update by LTTP there. Mario will need to pull his clutch factor to win this one.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/3/2009 5:42:58 PM | message detail
MEGATON
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 5:43:10 PM | message detail
If LttP stalls like that again even once more, it'll win unless we see some a hot repeat from Mario/Crono 2003. Otherwise, I THINK SM64 can still win.
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 5:43:50 PM | message detail
dammit KP you can't just make a cool Pokemon pic and pad it with semi-cool pics from the other games!

*cough*


Yeah, LTTP wins this.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 5:44:33 PM | message detail
only way mario still has a chance is if it can take all that back in like one update
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 5:45:52 PM | message detail
or LttP can gain 11 more. Yep, officially over
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http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/3/2009 5:46:04 PM | message detail
Oh hey, time to stall at ~350 votes hmmm wonder who called this
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
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paulg235 | Posted 6/3/2009 5:46:10 PM | message detail
Then again, LttP is FINALLY using its ASV here.
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Janus5000 | Posted 6/3/2009 5:50:01 PM | message detail
As much as some hate Pikachu you can't really deny that it's the face of the game.

Pikachu is the face of Pokémon as a whole, but that may not be a good thing. Charizard and Blastoise are definitely the top representatives for R/B, at least (and yes, this is based largely off of the cover arts).
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/3/2009 5:50:50 PM | message detail
From: paulg235 | #014
Then again, LttP is FINALLY using its ASV here.

bless you hawaiian asv
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hochiminhX | Posted 6/3/2009 5:56:52 PM | message detail
LTTP Lead: 356
Updates left: 37


Cuts needed per update to win: 9.6


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I will bury you.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 6/3/2009 5:56:52 PM | message detail
Yeah, Mario 64's dead barring some major shenanigans.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 5:59:25 PM | message detail
That sucks. 300 votes away from a much cooler next round match
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 6:01:05 PM | message detail
15:00 | 48.81%
16:00 | 46.59%
17:00 | 49.36%
18:00 | 47.39%
19:00 | 47.23%
20:00 | 47.96%
21:00 | 49.05%



I think this may be the end for Mario :(

gg
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
iGenesis | Posted 6/3/2009 6:01:06 PM | message detail
Ask your buddies to rally behind Mario. 300 votes can be overcome.
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ObscureMammoth | Posted 6/3/2009 6:03:20 PM | message detail
Yesterday at this time SMB3 led by 217
Today LttP is winning by 353.

I think LttP has it.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 6:09:18 PM | message detail
Based on the last hour, SM64 takes the lead at 6:50 tomorrow morning.
Based on the last half hour, SM64 never takes the lead.
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hochiminhX | Posted 6/3/2009 6:11:55 PM | message detail
This might just be a stall-fest.


*Sigh* It apears I have no choice


I, Hochiminh, shall take matters into my own hands.


To start, I have alerted the Halo boards among others. Let us see if LTTP can withstand my wheeling and dealing.


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I will bury you.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 6:12:34 PM | message detail
Halo... boards? Like... shouldn't you alert mario boards or something
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 6:12:48 PM | message detail
Someone post on the WoW forums. They'd vote Mario over their own series!

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KingBartz | Posted 6/3/2009 6:12:52 PM | message detail
Well, it looks like Mario's back to work again.
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GURU STATUS: Eliminated
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 6:13:26 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #030
Someone post on the WoW forums. They'd vote Mario over their own series!


heh good idea
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hochiminhX | Posted 6/3/2009 6:15:30 PM | message detail
I promised 10 dollars via paypal if SM4 wins to everyone who voted for it. People on those Halo forums are idiots after all. I shall now alert various other forums promising them money via paypal if SM64 wins.

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I will bury you.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 6:15:34 PM | message detail
This sucks. C'mon, we REALLY need to rally this match to hell and back, guys. I respect LttP and all...but who wants yet another boring set of semis and a crappy final? Are there any Ninty boards we could alert?
red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 6:16:23 PM | message detail
Hopefully the WoW fans would vote Zelda over their own series too.

Actually, that would explain why WoW is so weak! Because its own fans do not like it enough to vote it over many things!
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hochiminhX | Posted 6/3/2009 6:16:30 PM | message detail
The Halo boards are way more active than the Mario boards. I don't know of any active Mario boards. I know I've gotten at least 8 people thus far from the Halo boards.
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I will bury you.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 6:17:06 PM | message detail
It doesn't have to be JUST Mario. A general Nintendo board could do wonders here.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 6:17:42 PM | message detail
A general Nintendo board would be just as likely to favor LTTP as SM64.
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__hiei__ | Posted 6/3/2009 6:17:57 PM | message detail
i hope you people aren't rallying on gamefaqs boards because that's kinda pointless. >_>
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 6:18:58 PM | message detail
"A general Nintendo board would be just as likely to favor LTTP as SM64."

I think it'd swing hard in Mario's favor. Sure, Zelda is probably the more popular series in general...but this is SM64. A hardcore Ninty fan could very well vote for it simply out of respect. After SMB1, it's the game most likely to get respect votes.
ObscureMammoth | Posted 6/3/2009 6:19:15 PM | message detail
Or you could not rally. That'd be cool too.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 6:19:36 PM | message detail

From: ObscureMammoth | #041
Or you could not rally. That'd be cool too.


says the LttP fan
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/3/2009 6:19:46 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 6:20:08 PM | message detail
If we don't rally we're stuck with a snorefest next round
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 6:21:28 PM | message detail
I think it'd swing hard in Mario's favor. Sure, Zelda is probably the more popular series in general...but this is SM64. A hardcore Ninty fan could very well vote for it simply out of respect. After SMB1, it's the game most likely to get respect votes.

By this argument SM64 should be winning this poll easily.
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ObscureMammoth | Posted 6/3/2009 6:21:55 PM | message detail
A Snorefest? It'd be the same match practically. 3 nintendo games fighting for second place. No matter what.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 6:22:01 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #044
If we don't rally we're stuck with a snorefest next round


seriously, we might as well skip that next round match since its a given LttP advances, but if we get sm64 to advance, we can have a great match
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
hochiminhX | Posted 6/3/2009 6:22:18 PM | message detail
I will not allow the contest to be ruined by having a boring semi-final match. FFVII/SMW/SMB3/SM64 is a once in a lifetime opportunity here. Everyone, it's high time we got busy. I find it's easier to get them to vote if you promise them money via paypal. Keep it small and believable though. 10-15 dollars works best.


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I will bury you.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 6:23:13 PM | message detail
Well I admit that if Mario 3 and World somehow make a match with LttP despite splitting against each other and LttP being equal with Mario 64, I guess it would be a neat match to realize how freakishly strong they are. But the possiblity of that happening seems pretty slim
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 6:26:03 PM | message detail
seems your halo friends arent helping =\
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