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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 740

red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 3:47:49 PM | message detail
Actually, forget 2008 LFF. There's a much better reason for them to LFF- Solid Snake!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 3:48:26 PM | message detail
Mature character LFF! Twilight Princess wins!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 3:50:46 PM | message detail
Hmmm...This may end up being Mario 64's best hour yet.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Chaotic Mind | Posted 6/3/2009 3:50:53 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #392
Feelings on the next few matches:

Tomorrow: I have a feeling RBY is going to impress, and FFX is going to flop. Melee probably flops too and takes last by a good margin.

Friday: I still think it's likely that neither Nintendo game advances, and don't count out RE4 for first yet....MGS3 >= MGS4....why not?

Saturday: Whichever game of LTTP/Mario 64 wins here goes to town on SMB3/SMW, both because they are probably a tad stronger naturally and because they have the advantage in the way LFF goes. FFVII kills them all really badly; if it's FFVII vs. Mario, it could even hit 50%.


I think RBY stays above 20%, but i don't think FFX flops, at least not hard enough to lose. I also don't buy Melee taking last by a good margin. I expect all 3 games to be in the low to mid 20s, with FFX being the highest of them by 1 or 2 percent.

Friday: I expect Brawl to beat TP down and still take first. I'd call MGS4 the favorite for 2nd, but RE4 does have a shot.

Saturday: I completely agree.
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Flash runs alongside Balefire watching marshmallows stop existing. - WarThaNemesis2
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/3/2009 3:51:26 PM | message detail

From: Chaotic Mind | #395
I've yet to play it so that's possible, but from what i've heard it does too much handholding and is too easy.


It's probably easier now than Mario 64 was in 1996 (new genre and all), but it's absolutely more challenging if you sit down and play both games today. Some of those stars are pretty dang tough.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 3:52:56 PM | message detail
Yeah SM64DS basically killed the difficulty.

Cage Island Star was actually tough, Tick Tock Clock had no bottom etc...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 3:55:37 PM | message detail
I'm tired with these Zelda stuffers

>_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
Chaotic Mind | Posted 6/3/2009 4:00:19 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #405
It's probably easier now than Mario 64 was in 1996 (new genre and all), but it's absolutely more challenging if you sit down and play both games today. Some of those stars are pretty dang tough.


I've heard that the game basically spells out how to get each star for you though, and that the paths to the stars are fairly linear. SM64 only gave you one-line clues on where the stars were, and the levels were more like sandboxes with stars hidden throughout than linear paths.
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Flash runs alongside Balefire watching marshmallows stop existing. - WarThaNemesis2
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 4:00:20 PM | message detail
under 500
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
Janus5000 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:00:45 PM | message detail
5 hours left, under 500 to go. This'll be interesting.
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 4:01:14 PM | message detail
5 hours left with under 400 to go would be interesting. This looks too steep.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:02:38 PM | message detail
Good match, I'd be happy with either of these games winning. SM64 has already validated CT, so I don't need it to actually beat LTTP, a game I like more. On the other hand, I'd rather see FFVII vs. Mario than a boring FFVII vs. Zelda vs. Mario vs. Mario match.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:02:44 PM | message detail
15:00 | 48.81%
16:00 | 46.59%
17:00 | 49.36%
18:00 | 47.39%
19:00 | 47.23%

Based on the last hour SM64 will take second at 22:15

Based on the last half hour SM64 will take second at 00:15

Is it slowing down?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 4:02:49 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #411
5 hours left with under 400 to go would be interesting. This looks too steep.


No way, since it should be 5 full hours of gaining since Mario wins the SNV
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 6/3/2009 4:09:46 PM | message detail
This is where it gets interesting!
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/3/2009 4:09:47 PM | message detail
I predict RBY and FFX being close, with either both of them being neck to neck or FFX being slightly ahead the entire time. Either way, I give the edge to FFX.

No clue how Melee will do.
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Wylvane's current main account.
paulg235 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:10:26 PM | message detail
Match is over, as far as I'm concerned. Mario 64 wins and FF7 (despite doing spectacular here) is in some hot water for the final.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 4:11:10 PM | message detail

From: L33t_Rappa_Sam | #416
I predict RBY and FFX being close, with either both of them being neck to neck or FFX being slightly ahead the entire time. Either way, I give the edge to FFX.

No clue how Melee will do.


but that makes no sense regarding trends >_>; FFX should dominate it overnight and Pokemon should win the day
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:11:29 PM | message detail
This is what paulg actually believes.
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I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong.
http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/3/2009 4:11:34 PM | message detail

From: Chaotic Mind | #408
I've heard that the game basically spells out how to get each star for you though, and that the paths to the stars are fairly linear. SM64 only gave you one-line clues on where the stars were, and the levels were more like sandboxes with stars hidden throughout than linear paths.


Well, the Mario 64 stars would probably take longer to get, especially on a first run, but Galaxy features faster, more challenging platforming. There's really no "superior" one - it's just how you prefer your Mario. I love both games and can take one over the other on any given day.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 4:22:58 PM | message detail
Hmm...Mario seems to be chipping at LttP at a rate of 11 or 12 votes per update. How long will he need to tie the match if he keeps it up?
Mannequin Depressive | Posted 6/3/2009 4:25:39 PM | message detail
down to 465, wow!
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-_-...-_-
...-_-... Bera:12x Ice/Lit Mage
__hiei__ | Posted 6/3/2009 4:26:30 PM | message detail
if SM64 cuts 12 votes per update it will need about 3 hours to catch Zelda
red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:29:42 PM | message detail
The problem here is that Mario never loses a close match. He probably won't stop until midnight, and he might even (actually, probably will) accelerate the final hour.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
Mannequin Depressive | Posted 6/3/2009 4:30:46 PM | message detail
40 vote cut :)

down to 425
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-_-...-_-
...-_-... Bera:12x Ice/Lit Mage
Mannequin Depressive | Posted 6/3/2009 4:31:14 PM | message detail
mario 64 is the comeback king
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-_-...-_-
...-_-... Bera:12x Ice/Lit Mage
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 4:32:15 PM | message detail

From: Mannequin Depressive | #425
40 vote cut :)

down to 425


uh... it was 10 votes
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
BDawg | Posted 6/3/2009 4:33:49 PM | message detail
As long as this is a nice clean fight then so be it but if it boils down to 11:45 again I'm probably voting for FFVII next round for the first time in history.
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Should I start running now?
Mannequin Depressive | Posted 6/3/2009 4:34:12 PM | message detail
shhhh i'm creating hype
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-_-...-_-
...-_-... Bera:12x Ice/Lit Mage
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 4:34:22 PM | message detail
"The problem here is that Mario never loses a close match. He probably won't stop until midnight, and he might even (actually, probably will) accelerate the final hour."

Mario just needs to tie the match and get a 1 vote lead. Afterwards, our good old buddies from the Cheat Squad will keep him safe. That's all he needs, and all I'm asking for.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:35:19 PM | message detail
Crono will settle scores of scores with Mario this year's character battle. Cloud, Link, all those who have been robbed by that smug plumber.....you shall be avenged!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:36:41 PM | message detail
I don't think Mario will make it, he seems to be slowing down. He needs to pull a true Mario.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 4:37:25 PM | message detail
"Crono will settle scores of scores with Mario this year's character battle. Cloud, Link, all those who have been robbed by that smug plumber.....you shall be avenged!"

You sure about that? This E3 looks like it might be the beginning of a new Boost. If that's the case, Mario might not only school everyone outside Clinkeroth, he might finally make the Finals in a fourway, or get to...wherever he can go if he is in the main bracket, probably the finals.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 6/3/2009 4:37:59 PM | message detail
As long as Mario 64 is within 200 votes come 11:00, he'll win. His cheating squad will not fail him.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 6/3/2009 4:38:28 PM | message detail
500ish votes in 3:30

doable?
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:38:55 PM | message detail
As long as Mario 64 is within 200 votes come 11:00, he'll win. His cheating squad will not fail him.

We haven't seen him pull that in years though, he may be a bit rusty.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 4:40:08 PM | message detail
"500ish votes in 3:30

doable?"

More like 438 votes, at this point. If Mario takes the lead, the match is pretty much over. The Cheat Squad has a perfect record up 'til now.
paulg235 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:43:27 PM | message detail
I'm bored, so let's play around with Xstats.

Final Fantasy 7 (2004g) has a strength of 55.00 against Base Link.
Final Fantasy X (2004g) has a strength of 40.55 against Base Link.
FF7 wins with 63.14% of the vote

Ocarina of Time (2004g) has a strength of 50.80 against Base Link.
A) Mario 64 (2004g) has a strength of 38.59 against Base Link.
OoT wins with 62.02% of the vote
B) Super Mario World (2004g) has a strength of 37.66 against Base Link.
OoT wins with 62.93% of the vote
C) Mario 3 (2004g) has a strength of 43.89 against Base Link.
OoT wins with 56.80% of the vote

If we put these numbers together (and divide them by 2)...

A) FF7: 31.57%
FFX: 18.43%
OoT: 31.01%
Mario 64: 18.99%

B) FF7: 31.57%
FFX: 18.43%
OoT: 31.47%
SMW: 18.53%

C) FF7: 31.57%
FFX: 18.43%
OoT: 28.40%
SMB3: 21.60%

Now, there is no way the mario games and FFX would score that high without some SFF added to them, but from the looks of it, Mario 64 or SMW advancing could possibly kill FF7's chances.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:45:37 PM | message detail
SM64 down to a crawl...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 4:46:31 PM | message detail
If CT's 42% was a result of a Finals overperformance and its real strength was what it got this year(around 35%) and LttP is supporting that by pretty much getting the same thing, then if the match with Melee WASN'T an overperformance, Melee=#3 and always has been!

Here we go Melee
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 6/3/2009 4:46:33 PM | message detail
Sign that Zelda's going to win the night vote?
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Demyx is better than Axel.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 4:48:59 PM | message detail
Not yet. Remember, Zelda stalled even in the ASV.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:51:02 PM | message detail
Super Cheat 64
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 4:51:40 PM | message detail
MAN, so close to cutting the lead below 401! I'm just hoping LttP doesn't pull out a stall afterwards if SM64 goes on a tear this half hour...or maybe it already did in response to the previous hour, and now we're back to SM64's time?
red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:54:50 PM | message detail
Going through the topic...

...LttP and CT being basically equal? Whatever happened to the massive CT drop? o.O

More like delusional people refusing to believe that CTDS would give it even a moderate boost!

By the way, GoldenEye's round 2 performance seems to imply that it's not that far behind Mario 64 and CT. Acceptable?

Yes. Goldeneye could even be a top 10 game for all we know. It did take #8 on the List, and the only other previous performance we have to go on really is OOT/GE, which tells us just about nothing. Division 32-64 was really underrated in 2004.

If CT's 42% was a result of a Finals overperformance and its real strength was what it got this year(around 35%) and LttP is supporting that by pretty much getting the same thing, then if the match with Melee WASN'T an overperformance, Melee=#3 and always has been!

Melee's match was an overperformance too. But yeah, it was probably number 3 for a good while before Brawl came out, the hype died, and Nintendo stopped making games aimed at gamers.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:57:46 PM | message detail
Meaning starting in 2006, of course- SSBM was certainly not #3 in 2004, and maybe not even top 10.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 5:00:37 PM | message detail
under 400
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 5:01:31 PM | message detail
YES! The lead is under 400! SM64 can do this!
charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 5:01:48 PM | message detail
15:00 | 48.81%
16:00 | 46.59%
17:00 | 49.36%
18:00 | 47.39%
19:00 | 47.23%
20:00 | 47.96%

Using the past hour SM64 will take the lead at 23:55

Using the past half hour SM64 will take the lead at 2:10

Mario you need to speed up again.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 5:02:02 PM | message detail
ASV over. Now we have 3 hours of fading until we reach the SNV. I don't think we're going to see much of a change here though- LTTP will cool off just as much as Mario 64.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.