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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 740

KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 1:00:33 PM | message detail
14:30 - 14:45: Mario Up 8
14:45 - 15:00: Mario Up 48
15:00 - 15:15: Mario Up 42
15:15 - 15:30: Mario Up 42
15:30 - 15:45: Mario Up 79
15:45 - 16:00: Mario Up 65

Lead: 834
VP5MU Needed: 8.69
VP15MU needed: 26.07

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Janus5000 | Posted 6/3/2009 1:00:59 PM | message detail
Canada, you say?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3502&region=CA


Canada just hates comebacks.
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 1:01:26 PM | message detail
Time | LttP
1:00 | 52.37%
2:00 | 52.87%
3:00 | 52.80%
4:00 | 53.41%
5:00 | 54.55%
6:00 | 48.13%
7:00 | 49.56%
8:00 | 50.96%
9:00 | 49.63%
10:00 | 51.88%
11:00 | 52.66%
12:00 | 51.01%
13:00 | 50.36%
14:00 | 50.43%
15:00 | 48.81%
16:00 | 46.59%


From the past hour SM64 takes second at 19:45

From the past half hour SM64 takes second at 19:00
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 1:01:30 PM | message detail
1. FF7
2. OoT
3. RBY


yes I went there
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Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/3/2009 1:01:30 PM | message detail
the thing is...the true #3 will be the one that determines the winner of the contest

because whoever it leeches in the final will end up #2

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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 1:01:56 PM | message detail
SM64 definitely slowing down. It needs another pair of spikes! Gotta hope Mario is building up momentum for another huge tear.
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 1:02:34 PM | message detail
Putting this out here: if RBY advances tomorrow, it isn't because of some invisible bandwagon. It's because of its own strength.

Just preempting some of the inevitable comments.

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 1:04:20 PM | message detail
Well this makes me happy if Super Mario 64 beats LttP

Chrono Trigger gets vindicated yay. Looks like LttP Vs. CT would still be a good match. LttP would probably win with like 51-52% though
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 1:04:27 PM | message detail
Putting this out here: if RBY advances tomorrow, it isn't because of some invisible bandwagon. It's because of its own strength.

I agree.

Well, unless it beats FFX and SSBM by 10% and gets within 5% of OoT.
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 1:04:49 PM | message detail
Don't slow down Mario...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 1:05:18 PM | message detail
that update was weird, FF7 went up .02%
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 1:05:45 PM | message detail
Well, yeah, that would be kind of obvious. >_>

I just don't want to see "Wow, this game that got over 50% in its R1 match is edging out Melee and FFX! It's L-Block all over again!"

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 1:05:51 PM | message detail
Bad updates for everyone except FFVII, so.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/3/2009 1:07:12 PM | message detail
Putting this out here: if RBY advances tomorrow, it isn't because of some invisible bandwagon. It's because of its own strength.

Just preempting some of the inevitable comments.


That kind of sentiment has me confused as well. Do people not remember the Pokemon craze from middle school? I mean really...there are a LOT of people whose only gaming experience was Pokemon. It's one of the few games in this contest that can really get votes on its own strength and not get massively affected by similar games, as is happening in the Mario/Zelda bloodbath right now.

I have RBY advancing one more round in my bracket as well. And if they advance to the final it doesnt bother me...i dont see it affecting OoT's votals very much, at least compared to all the other nintendo games in the contest.

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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 1:08:53 PM | message detail
Oh, crap. Just a two vote win for the plumber's game! Time to go rally the troops, it seems.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 1:09:44 PM | message detail
more like 17
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 1:10:47 PM | message detail
Now that's more like it. Mario still needs to keep it up, though. Another thirty vote update would be just perfect.
Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/3/2009 1:11:40 PM | message detail
How would TP/Brawl go? This one is a head scratcher.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 1:13:25 PM | message detail
I expect Brawl to win, but I don't expect a massive SFF beat down.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 1:24:42 PM | message detail
updates like that aren't good though
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 1:24:56 PM | message detail
Whoa, big gainer for LTTP.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
iGenesis | Posted 6/3/2009 1:25:10 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 1:13:25 PM | message detail
I expect Brawl to win, but I don't expect a massive SFF beat down.

I expect 70-30 Brawl-TP. Just because kiddies these days are absorbed with their multiplayer and "infinite replay value" (LOL)
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Janus5000 | Posted 6/3/2009 1:26:13 PM | message detail
That was SM64's worst update since the ASV began. Huh.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 1:26:43 PM | message detail
You know, it still astounds me how badly Galaxy flopped after seeing pretty much every other Mario game tear it up.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
Janus5000 | Posted 6/3/2009 1:27:42 PM | message detail
Galaxy just isn't universal enough.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/3/2009 1:27:43 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be shocked with 60/40 or even worse. Aside from Pokemon, which came out of nowhere, Smash seems like Nintendo's untouchable series of this decade.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 1:28:07 PM | message detail
No puns allowed.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 1:29:28 PM | message detail
Oh, no. Like hell LttP is going to pull away!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/3/2009 1:30:18 PM | message detail
Random question: if KHIII was released on the Wii, would Sora's day vote get relatively worse due to an improved Power Hour?
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
Janus5000 | Posted 6/3/2009 1:30:19 PM | message detail
Pun aside, it's true. <_< SMB/SMB3/SMW all came out when Nintendo basically ruled the industry, and SM64 was huge and came shortly before Sony took over.

Galaxy... yeah, you'd expect it to have done better, but it really did sort of get forgotten pretty quickly.
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Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/3/2009 1:31:51 PM | message detail
300 votes in 100 minutes

sooo...at 3 votes a minute, lol...

265 minutes from now, Mario will be ahead by 1 vote

which is 8:57

but the ASV will be dead by then...


this really is going to be a fight to the finish

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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 1:32:21 PM | message detail
Yeah, I didn't expect Galaxy to be a powerhouse or anything, but you'd think it would have done better than...that. I mean, Brawl and TP are looking alright, so why not Mario?
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 1:32:31 PM | message detail

From: Julian_Caesar | #281
300 votes in 100 minutes

sooo...at 3 votes a minute, lol...

265 minutes from now, Mario will be ahead by 1 vote

which is 8:57

but the ASV will be dead by then...


this really is going to be a fight to the finish


asv isn't dead till like 10 PM
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transience | Posted 6/3/2009 1:33:34 PM | message detail
TP: hyped to hell
Brawl: hyped to the moon, then to hell, then back
Galaxy: uhhhh
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Karma Hunter | Posted 6/3/2009 1:33:42 PM | message detail
Jeez - FF7 hasn't budged much, like, at all from its last round percentage. Though SM64 is doing its damndest to keep OoT's hopes alive.

...LttP and CT being basically equal? Whatever happened to the massive CT drop? o.O
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 1:34:20 PM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #285
Jeez - FF7 hasn't budged much, like, at all from its last round percentage. Though SM64 is doing its damndest to keep OoT's hopes alive.

...LttP and CT being basically equal? Whatever happened to the massive CT drop? o.O


Seems we just totally underestimated mario 64
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 1:34:34 PM | message detail
Oh well, keep stallin' Zelda!
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 1:35:06 PM | message detail
More like we overestimated LTTP. This is a pretty bad performance from it.

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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 6/3/2009 1:37:22 PM | message detail
Does Mario 64 have any legitimate shot at this?
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 1:37:35 PM | message detail
Man, what a weird update Zelda had. It gained fifty votes out of nowhere, then resumed dying as usual. At least it looks like SM64 is back on track. It needs to cut into LttP's lead just a teeny bit faster, though.
Karma Hunter | Posted 6/3/2009 1:37:44 PM | message detail
If LttP holds on here, 36% and change on FF7 isn't exactly a bad performance - as long as FF7 is the #1 game on this site, which looks more likely every time we see it.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 1:38:04 PM | message detail

From: Masato_Tanaka | #289
Does Mario 64 have any legitimate shot at this?


Its got a very good shot. At its current pace, it'll take the lead by 9 PM
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 1:38:38 PM | message detail
"Does Mario 64 have any legitimate shot at this?"

Yes, it does. It needs to keep the pressure up and keep getting those 15-vote updates, maybe with a few 30 vote updates mixed in. And LttP can't get any more BS gains.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 1:39:50 PM | message detail
zelda needs to stop these stalls tho
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BDawg | Posted 6/3/2009 1:41:00 PM | message detail
If 64 is gonna do this then go ahead and do it, I don't want to deal with anymore tainted junk at the end of the match.
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Should I start running now?
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 1:41:50 PM | message detail
WTF. A true stall, no votes gained or lost? Something's fishy here. LttP can't possibly be fighting back NOW.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 6/3/2009 1:41:59 PM | message detail
*sees updater*

oh god.... it's happening again
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Today's prediction: This guy are sick 37.09% - Link to the Past 25.90% - Mario 22.02% - Mog 14.99%
Status:
Janus5000 | Posted 6/3/2009 1:42:44 PM | message detail
Mario 64 is just running out of juice. LttP hasn't done much on its own since those big cuts a while ago.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 6/3/2009 1:43:16 PM | message detail
It very easily can. Voters aren't robots, and both rallying and "rallying" is pretty much the norm in a close match.

The exception that proves the rule aside, you don't bet against the bracket favorite in a close match.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/3/2009 1:44:49 PM | message detail
I'm curious..if you replace FFVI with FFX..what would the outcome be? Is FFX stronger? I thought FFVI was the 2nd strongest FF game. Maybe there's a console SFFing going on here.
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